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The warehouse real estate sector is seeing a rebalance. Here’s what to watch for
A large industrial warehouse features rows of shelves stacked with packages, while two workers in safety gear are walking and inspecting the storage. Utilized space exemplifies efficiency and systematic inventory management.
Witthaya Prasongsin | Moment | Getty Images
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After a pandemic-driven surge, and a subsequent pullback, warehouse real estate supply and demand is finally starting to come into balance and showing new signs of life.
E-commerce, which was the primary driver of the recent boom cycle, certainly hasn’t gone away, but more people are returning to brick and mortar. Warehouse tenants are now more focused on efficiency, power and location than they are on square footage.
New development has slowed down, and federal policies are pushing onshoring of manufacturing, which helps the sector counter still-high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Rent increases are no longer as steep as they were a few years ago, and in some markets they are actually falling slightly due to oversupply.
“Industrial property rents are showing signs of stabilization, indicating a more balanced market environment,” said Judy Guarino, managing director of commercial mortgage lending at JPMorgan Chase, in a note to investors.
Here’s what to watch for in warehouses in 2026.
Big-box
The big-box subsector refers to large, modern distribution and warehouse facilities that serve as hubs for logistics, storage and e-commerce fulfillment. It makes up about a quarter of the total industrial warehouse space in the U.S.
Vacancies are close to cyclical peaks and new construction is contracting, according to industry data. In the first half of this year, new supply still outpaced new demand, but the gap shrank, according to new research from Colliers. Third-party logistics firms, including delivery services such as Ryder and DHL moving goods on behalf of a client, are leading that demand.
“The third-quarter demand has far exceeded the entire first half of the year, which is another really strong indicator that the supply and demand is starting to get more into a balanced state,” said Stephanie Rodriguez, national director of industrial services at Colliers.
Across the 20 largest markets, the overall big-box vacancy rate rose 19 basis points to 11% during the first half of the year, according to Colliers. New supply totaled 48 million square feet in the first half of 2025, much less than the 330 million square feet completed at the height of the cycle in 2023. Rents are expected to stabilize in the near term before starting to grow again.
Big-box is a major segment of the overall warehouse real estate market, particularly driven by demand from online retailers and companies seeking efficient supply chain operations. Recent economic and tariff policies have definitely shaken that demand, but as those policies settle, more demand could return. Lower interest rates would be another driver.
Supply chain
Supply chain, which relies heavily on warehouse real estate, is also seeing something of a transformation that could increase demand. In a report titled “Bold Predictions for 2026,” Prologis, the world’s largest logistics real estate company, cited specific supply chain trends to watch, including forecasts that:
- E-commerce companies will make up nearly 25% of new leasing next year as the proportion of goods sold online rises to almost 20% globally by year-end.
- The need for power-ready logistics facilities capable of supporting automation and manufacturing will be a top-three factor globally in location selection.
- Defense-related demand in the U.S. and Europe will breathe new life into older industrial corridors and produce a new class of specialized logistics assets.
- Shrinking trucking capacity will drive double-digit rate hikes in 2026, making transportation an even larger share of total supply chain spend and amplifying the value of well-located logistics real estate.
Power
Power is emerging as a leading driver across real estate portfolios. Beyond the usual narrative of e-commerce and the data center sector, power availability and network densification are becoming important pricing catalysts, according to a recent report from Hines, a global real estate investment manager.
“While re/near-shoring demand continues to pick up speed, albeit slowly and with somewhat uneven impact, opportunity also lies in power-advantaged infill assets that support faster and denser networks; where distance once drove advantage, closeness now creates it,” according to the Hines report.
Reshoring
Further research from Hines shows that warehouse net absorption has correlated to manufacturing construction spend.
“This trend highlights another potential source of demand not only for industrial manufacturing facilities, but for the warehouse subsector as well,” according to its report, which predicts reshoring alone could increase overall warehouse demand over the next five years by roughly 35%.
“Despite the volatility in the macroeconomic landscape, driven by interest rate and trade policy uncertainties, industrial properties near ports remain vital,” Guarino said. “Tariffs may lead to higher costs and supply chain challenges, but these locations are key to maintaining supply chain resilience and adapting to trade shifts.”
Proximity
One example of the proximity advantage: Amazon. Its logistics real estate strategy mirrors a broader national trend, prioritizing efficiency, automation and consumer proximity over sheer scale, according to a note from CoStar.
“It’s an interesting inflection point for industrial developers and REITs that rode the pandemic-era boom,” wrote Juan Arias, CoStar Group’s national director of industrial analytics.
Arias highlighted a leasing slowdown, noting that this year Amazon has occupied just 61 logistics properties, down from 100 in 2024 and as many as 300 in recent years. Its demand for larger footprint facilities hit a seven-year low, but it is still drawn to newer, taller buildings, with an emphasis on modern, efficient distribution centers, Arias said.
AI
As with everything else, artificial intelligence and property technology are making an imprint on the warehouse sector as well. They are helping owners and operators to analyze supply chains, traffic patterns and data more efficiently — particularly important in identifying potential warehouse locations. They are also helping to manage inventory and predict maintenance needs, both of which reduce costs.
Savers across the UK are being offered a record number of accounts and products and with interest rates still well above 4 per cent on the most competitive options, should make sure their cash is working hard.
Data from Moneyfacts shows the number of savings accounts has risen to 2,486, including ISAs, the highest number on record. Cash ISAs alone, meanwhile, also saw the largest monthly rise since May 2024 and, with 712 offers in total, is the most since Moneyfacts started recording.
Both numbers come as the final tax year gets underway in which all savers are able to deposit a full £20,000 annual allowance into a cash ISA.
Starting from April 2027, under-65s will only be able to save a maximum of £12,000 into the tax-free savings wrappers, with the additional £8,000 reserved for investment purposes, such as a stocks and shares ISA.
That’s as part of a wider push from the government to encourage more people to invest, to build future wealth.
High interest rates are important not only to earn a good return on cash, but to ensure money doesn’t lose its value, or buying power, when measured against rising prices; in other words, inflation, which currently sits at around 3 per cent and is set to rise.
That means consumers should whenever possible look to be beating that rate as a minimum when it comes to their saving accounts, and plenty of places are still offering 4.5 per cent and even higher right now.
“This year the competition around ISA season was particularly strong, fuelled by the fact that for savers under 65 it’s the final year for them to utilise their full £20,000 allowance. Providers have been enticing new deposits with attractive deals,” said Caitlyn Eastell, personal finance analyst at Moneyfacts.
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“Savers should be taking advantage of this all-time high, and it may be especially timely as the new tax-year is the perfect window to review their current deal and switch to ensure they can maximise their returns before thresholds tighten.
“The number of savings deals paying above the Bank of England base rate has surged to its highest level since December 2021. While this could largely be driven by base rate remaining unchanged several months, providers have also been proactively adjusting rates in response to shifting interest rate expectations.
“Fixed rates reflect this change, with the average one-year ISA rising to over 4 per cent, reaching its highest point since May 2025, while its non-ISA counterpart saw its biggest increase since September 2023. Savers may enjoy more competitive returns in this environment; however, it can be a tricky balancing act because sharp spikes to household bills and inflation could quickly catch up, meaning savers may be left out of pocket.”
Meanwhile, thisbank has pointed to growing evidence showing that many households have multiple money accounts, but no clear overview of their true financial position.
Reviewing accounts – including joint and old current accounts – can turn up unexpected cash reserves, help families realise which subscriptions they are paying for but are no longer using and aid better budgeting, the bank says, giving a better understanding of where income and expenses match up.
“For many households, financial stress is exacerbated by complexity. By taking a simple, step-by-step approach, people can implement structure and clarity in their everyday financial management,” said Chris Waring, CEO of thisbank, while recommending each savings account has a particular role, such as everyday spending, long-term emergency buffer or fixed-term saver accounts with strong rates for predictable returns.
Underlining the need to be aware of where consumers are choosing to put their cash, analysis by savings app Spring shows that a huge majority of premium, paid-for accounts come with poorer returns, tiered interest rates or withdrawal restrictions.
Under a quarter (23 per cent) of easy access savings accounts on premium current accounts on the market are free of additional restrictions, their research showed, which included lower returns after £4,000 in an account with one, a paltry 1.35 per cent on balances under £100,000 elsewhere and nearly a third (30 per cent) having withdrawal limits.
The FTSE 100 started the week on the back foot on Monday as hopes for a peace deal in the Middle East once more hung in the balance.
“Just when you think it is safe to go back in the water, the alarm is sounded again,” said Tom Stevenson, investment director, Fidelity International.
The FTSE 100 closed down 58.55 points, 0.6%, at 10,609.08. The FTSE 250 ended 265.71 points lower, 1.2%, at 22,940.21, and the AIM All-Share fell 1.77 points, 0.2%, to 808.34.
Friday’s optimism gave way to renewed fears that hostilities could resume in the Middle East war after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following its brief reopening.
“The market mood is very different at the start of the week compared to Friday,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
The price of crude oil had plunged Friday after Iran said it would again allow ships to pass through the key shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz.
But prices rose once more on Monday as Iran closed the waterway and said the US blockade and seizure of an Iranian cargo ship breached the two-week ceasefire.
Brent oil traded higher at 94.45 dollars a barrel on Monday afternoon, compared with 89.15 dollars at the time of the equities close in London on Friday.
Ms Brooks said the jump in oil prices and pull-back in stocks is a reminder that the current ceasefire that expires on Wednesday is “fragile”.
On Monday, Iran insisted it has no plan to attend a new round of negotiations with the US, although US President Donald Trump said he was sending negotiators to Pakistan for talks.
In European equities on Monday, the CAC 40 in Paris ended down 1.1%, and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt fell 1.2%.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1%, the S&P 500 was 0.3% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.5%.
Strategists at HSBC and UBS remained bullish on equity markets despite the latest market unease.
“Our view remains that we have passed peak geopolitical risk. Both sides have a strong incentive to find a deal. That said, we have been urging investors to expect a bumpy road to a lasting peace,” said Mark Haefele at UBS.
While, Max Kettner at HSBC said: “Despite the recent rally across the risk asset spectrum our sentiment and positioning framework still sends a buy signal. In short: be quick.”
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury stretched to 4.26% on Monday compared with 4.24% on Friday. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury widened to 4.89% from 4.88%.
The pound eased to 1.3535 dollars on Monday afternoon from 1.3556 dollars on Friday. Against the euro, sterling firmed to 1.1486 euros from 1.1481 euros.
The euro traded lower against the greenback, falling to 1.1786 dollars on Monday from 1.1805 dollars on Friday. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at 158.58 yen, up from 158.08 yen.
On London’s FTSE 100, oil majors BP and Shell benefited from the rising oil price, up 2.9% and 2.5%, recouping some of Friday’s heavy falls, while British Airways owner IAG fell 2.2%.
On the FTSE 250, Renishaw led the risers, up 6.2%, as it raised full-year guidance reflecting buoyant demand and a further “substantial expansion of our order book”.
The Gloucestershire-based supplier of manufacturing technologies, analytical instruments and medical devices now expects revenue in the financial year to June of £775 million to £805 million, raised from guidance of £740 million to £780 million provided in February.
It projects adjusted pre-tax profit of £145 million to £165 million, lifted from £132 million to £157 million.
Plus500 gained 3.8% as it said customer income reached a five-year record high in the first quarter of 2026 as it forecast full-year revenue and earnings ahead of market expectations.
Reflecting a strong first quarter of 2026, the Israel-based trading platform operator said it expects 2026 revenue and Ebitda to be ahead of current market expectations which it put at 779.3 million dollars and 360.4 million dollars respectively.
Chief executive David Zruia said: “The group delivered an excellent performance in the quarter, with strong growth across key financial and operational metrics.”
Elsewhere, bid interest drove shares of Evoke and Advanced Medical Solutions higher.
William Hill owner Evoke jumped 4.1% after it said it is in discussions with US casino operator Bally’s Intralot regarding a possible all-share takeover offer worth more than £200 million.
Back in December, Evoke kicked off a strategic review, which it said could include a sale of the company, after the UK Government budget which the gambling firm warned would lift yearly duty costs by up to £135 million.
Meanwhile, Advanced Medical Solutions rose 16% as it confirmed it is in talks regarding a possible offer for the company, little more than 12 months after another potential suitor failed to secure a deal with the firm.
On Saturday, Sky News reported that Boston-based private equity firm TA Associates was preparing an offer for AMS worth around 280 pence per share, or £600 million in total.
On Monday, the Cheshire-based surgical dressings company confirmed the talks with TA Associates, but stressed there can be no certainty that a firm offer will be made.
In March 2025, AMS was the subject of bid interest from London-based mid-market private equity firm Montagu Private Equity LLP, although no formal offer materialised.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould noted the latest takeover talks mean that 20 firms on the UK stock market are already involved in bid discussions this year.
“Even though the would-be buyers are yet to set a price tag for five of the proposed transactions, the total value of bids on the table is already £29.3 billion, equivalent to the aggregate reached across all successful bids in 2025, and the largest sum at this stage for any year this decade,” he pointed out.
Mr Mould said the level of interest “suggests that would-be buyers still believe the UK stock market offers value”.
Gold traded at 4,806.14 dollars an ounce on Monday, down from 4,869.13 dollars at the same time on Friday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Centrica, up 6.90p at 204.30p, BP, up 15.90p at 556.90p, Shell, up 78.50p at 3,274.50p, British American Tobacco, up 82.00p at 4,224.00p and SSE, up 47.00p at 2,516.50p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Metlen Energy & Metals, down 1.88p at 33.70p, Antofagasta, down 175.50p at 3,783.50p, Barratt Redrow, down 11.10p at 268.00p, Rolls Royce, down 48.20p at 1,262.40p and Fresnillo, down 120.00p at 3,662.00p.
Tuesday’s global economic calendar has UK unemployment and average earnings data at 7am, followed by US retail sales figures.
Tuesday’s local corporate calendar has a trading statement from miner Rio Tinto and half-year results from Primark owner Associated British Foods.
Contributed by Alliance News
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