Business
The warehouse real estate sector is seeing a rebalance. Here’s what to watch for
A large industrial warehouse features rows of shelves stacked with packages, while two workers in safety gear are walking and inspecting the storage. Utilized space exemplifies efficiency and systematic inventory management.
Witthaya Prasongsin | Moment | Getty Images
A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
After a pandemic-driven surge, and a subsequent pullback, warehouse real estate supply and demand is finally starting to come into balance and showing new signs of life.
E-commerce, which was the primary driver of the recent boom cycle, certainly hasn’t gone away, but more people are returning to brick and mortar. Warehouse tenants are now more focused on efficiency, power and location than they are on square footage.
New development has slowed down, and federal policies are pushing onshoring of manufacturing, which helps the sector counter still-high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Rent increases are no longer as steep as they were a few years ago, and in some markets they are actually falling slightly due to oversupply.
“Industrial property rents are showing signs of stabilization, indicating a more balanced market environment,” said Judy Guarino, managing director of commercial mortgage lending at JPMorgan Chase, in a note to investors.
Here’s what to watch for in warehouses in 2026.
Big-box
The big-box subsector refers to large, modern distribution and warehouse facilities that serve as hubs for logistics, storage and e-commerce fulfillment. It makes up about a quarter of the total industrial warehouse space in the U.S.
Vacancies are close to cyclical peaks and new construction is contracting, according to industry data. In the first half of this year, new supply still outpaced new demand, but the gap shrank, according to new research from Colliers. Third-party logistics firms, including delivery services such as Ryder and DHL moving goods on behalf of a client, are leading that demand.
“The third-quarter demand has far exceeded the entire first half of the year, which is another really strong indicator that the supply and demand is starting to get more into a balanced state,” said Stephanie Rodriguez, national director of industrial services at Colliers.
Across the 20 largest markets, the overall big-box vacancy rate rose 19 basis points to 11% during the first half of the year, according to Colliers. New supply totaled 48 million square feet in the first half of 2025, much less than the 330 million square feet completed at the height of the cycle in 2023. Rents are expected to stabilize in the near term before starting to grow again.
Big-box is a major segment of the overall warehouse real estate market, particularly driven by demand from online retailers and companies seeking efficient supply chain operations. Recent economic and tariff policies have definitely shaken that demand, but as those policies settle, more demand could return. Lower interest rates would be another driver.
Supply chain
Supply chain, which relies heavily on warehouse real estate, is also seeing something of a transformation that could increase demand. In a report titled “Bold Predictions for 2026,” Prologis, the world’s largest logistics real estate company, cited specific supply chain trends to watch, including forecasts that:
- E-commerce companies will make up nearly 25% of new leasing next year as the proportion of goods sold online rises to almost 20% globally by year-end.
- The need for power-ready logistics facilities capable of supporting automation and manufacturing will be a top-three factor globally in location selection.
- Defense-related demand in the U.S. and Europe will breathe new life into older industrial corridors and produce a new class of specialized logistics assets.
- Shrinking trucking capacity will drive double-digit rate hikes in 2026, making transportation an even larger share of total supply chain spend and amplifying the value of well-located logistics real estate.
Power
Power is emerging as a leading driver across real estate portfolios. Beyond the usual narrative of e-commerce and the data center sector, power availability and network densification are becoming important pricing catalysts, according to a recent report from Hines, a global real estate investment manager.
“While re/near-shoring demand continues to pick up speed, albeit slowly and with somewhat uneven impact, opportunity also lies in power-advantaged infill assets that support faster and denser networks; where distance once drove advantage, closeness now creates it,” according to the Hines report.
Reshoring
Further research from Hines shows that warehouse net absorption has correlated to manufacturing construction spend.
“This trend highlights another potential source of demand not only for industrial manufacturing facilities, but for the warehouse subsector as well,” according to its report, which predicts reshoring alone could increase overall warehouse demand over the next five years by roughly 35%.
“Despite the volatility in the macroeconomic landscape, driven by interest rate and trade policy uncertainties, industrial properties near ports remain vital,” Guarino said. “Tariffs may lead to higher costs and supply chain challenges, but these locations are key to maintaining supply chain resilience and adapting to trade shifts.”
Proximity
One example of the proximity advantage: Amazon. Its logistics real estate strategy mirrors a broader national trend, prioritizing efficiency, automation and consumer proximity over sheer scale, according to a note from CoStar.
“It’s an interesting inflection point for industrial developers and REITs that rode the pandemic-era boom,” wrote Juan Arias, CoStar Group’s national director of industrial analytics.
Arias highlighted a leasing slowdown, noting that this year Amazon has occupied just 61 logistics properties, down from 100 in 2024 and as many as 300 in recent years. Its demand for larger footprint facilities hit a seven-year low, but it is still drawn to newer, taller buildings, with an emphasis on modern, efficient distribution centers, Arias said.
AI
As with everything else, artificial intelligence and property technology are making an imprint on the warehouse sector as well. They are helping owners and operators to analyze supply chains, traffic patterns and data more efficiently — particularly important in identifying potential warehouse locations. They are also helping to manage inventory and predict maintenance needs, both of which reduce costs.
Business
BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs
BP has warned it expects to book up to five billion dollars (£3.7 billion) in write-downs across its gas and low-carbon energy division as it also said oil trading had been weak in its final quarter.
The oil giant joined FTSE 100 rival Shell, after it also last week cautioned over a weaker performance from trading, which comes amid a drop in the cost of crude.
BP said Brent crude prices averaged 63.73 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of last year compared with 69.13 dollars a barrel in the previous three months.
Oil prices have slumped in recent weeks, partly driven lower due to US President Donald Trump’s move to oust and detain Venezuela’s leader and lay claim to crude in the region, leading to fears of a supply glut.
In its update ahead of full-year results, BP also said it expects to book a four billion dollar (£3 billion) to five billion dollar (£3.7 billion) impairment in its so-called transition businesses, largely relating to its gas and low-carbon energy division.
But it said further progress had been made in slashing debts, with its net debt falling to between 22 billion and 23 billion dollars (£16.4 billion to £17.1 billion) at the end of 2025, down from 26.1 billion dollars (£19.4 billion) at the end of September.
It comes after the firm’s surprise move last month to appoint Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill as its new chief executive as Murray Auchincloss stepped down after less than two years in the role.
Ms O’Neill will start in the role on April 1, with Carol Howle, current executive vice president of supply, trading and shipping at BP, acting as chief executive on an interim basis until the new boss joins.
Ms O’Neill’s appointment has made history as she will become the first woman to run BP – and also the first to head up a top five global oil company – as well as being the first ever outsider to take on the post at BP.
Shares in BP fell 1% in morning trading on Wednesday after the latest update.
Business
Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India
Real estate developers in Kolkata have urged the Centre to use the Union Budget to recalibrate housing policies to reflect rising land and construction costs, calling for higher tax benefits for homebuyers and a long-pending revision of the affordable housing definition to revive demand, especially in the mid-income segment, PTI reported.With the Budget set to be tabled on February 1, industry players said measures such as revisiting price caps for affordable homes, rationalising GST on under-construction properties and easing approval processes could significantly improve affordability and sales momentum.Sushil Mohta, president of CREDAI West Bengal and chairman of Merlin Group, said reforms must align with current market realities. “Revisiting the affordable housing definition, rationalising housing loan interest deductions and streamlining GST rates will significantly improve affordability and demand, especially for middle-income homebuyers,” he told PTI, adding that a policy push for rental housing and wider access to formal housing finance is crucial amid rapid urbanisation.Mahesh Agarwal, managing director of Purti Realty, said continued policy support through tax rationalisation and infrastructure spending remains critical. “A re-evaluation of affordable housing price limits in line with rising land and construction costs, along with adjustments to GST on under-construction property, will enhance affordability,” he said, stressing that simpler tax frameworks and incentives for first-time buyers would help stabilise the market and speed up project execution.Echoing similar concerns, Merlin Group MD Saket Mohta pointed to sharp increases in construction costs since the introduction of GST in 2017, underscoring the need for further rationalisation. He also called for raising the affordable housing price cap from Rs 45 lakh to around Rs 80–90 lakh and expanding unit size norms. “Mid-income housing will be the key demand driver going into 2026, and supportive tax and policy measures are essential to sustain growth,” he said.Eden Realty MD Arya Sumant said the Budget must strike a balance between fiscal discipline and growth-oriented reforms. “Higher home loan interest deductions for mid-income and first-time buyers, an updated affordable housing definition, GST rationalisation and faster approvals will improve project viability and speed-to-market,” he said, adding that sustained urban infrastructure investment would unlock demand across residential and commercial segments.Sahil Saharia, CEO of Bengal Shristi Infrastructure Development Ltd, said policy focus should shift towards large, integrated developments. “Support for mixed-use townships, rental housing and commercial hubs, along with faster clearances and digital single-window mechanisms, can help create self-sustained urban ecosystems and improve execution efficiency,” he said.Developers said clear and stable policy signals in the Budget could help restore homebuyer confidence, attract long-term capital and ensure sustainable growth for the real estate sector in eastern India.
Business
Asian stocks today: Markets remain mixed after Trump’s Iran remarks; HSI down over 76 points, Kospi gains 1.5% – The Times of India
Asian markets ended mixed on Thursday, after US President Donald Trump’s comments on Iran, saying that he was told “on good authority” that plans for executions in Iran have stopped. At the same time, oil prices dropped sharply, falling more than $2 a barrel.Hong Kong’s HSI was up 76 point or 0.28% down at 26,923. Nikkei plunged 230 points or 0.42% to trade at 54,110. Shanghai and Shenzhen ended down 0.33% and up 0.41%. In South Korea, Kospi was up 1.5% or 74 points.US benchmark crude slid $2, or 3.4%, to $59.75 a barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell $2.31, or 3.5%, to $64.21 a barrel.Shares of Toyota Industries rose 6.2% after reports said Toyota Motor had increased its buyout offer for the company to 18,800 yen ($118.61) per share. US futures were little changed. The future for the S&P 500 rose by less than 0.1%, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down by less than 0.1%.On Wednesday, Wall Street closed lower for a second consecutive session. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 1%.Losses were led by Big Tech stocks, even as most shares on Wall Street advanced. The sector came under pressure as investors pulled back from the artificial intelligence rally and amid warnings from some critics that valuations had become stretched. Nvidia shares declined 1.4%, while Broadcom fell 4.2%.Bank stocks also weakened. Wells Fargo sank 4.6% after reporting quarterly profit and revenue that missed expectations. Bank of America fell 3.8%, and Citigroup dropped 3.3%.Energy stocks provided some support to the broader market. Exxon Mobil gained 2.9%, and Chevron rose 2.1%.Investors continued to seek safe-haven assets as geopolitical uncertainties remained elevated. Gold prices slipped 0.8% on Thursday but stayed close to their previous record levels.In the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell to 4.14% from 4.18% late Tuesday, reflecting increased demand for safer assets. Bond prices move inversely to yields.In currency trading early Thursday, the US dollar strengthened to 158.63 Japanese yen from 158.46 yen. The euro weakened slightly to $1.1636 from $1.1645.
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