Last Updated:March 06, 2026, 08:16 IST

Every $10 rise in global crude oil prices could shave around 0.5 percentage points off India’s GDP growth, say experts

India imports nearly 50 percent of crude oil from the Middle East

Every $10 rise in global crude oil prices could shave around 0.5 percentage points off India’s GDP growth, underscoring the country’s heavy reliance on imported oil and vulnerability to global energy volatility, Vandana Bharti, Research Head–Commodity at SMC Global Securities, told ANI.

In an interview with ANI, Bharti said escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia pose a significant economic risk for India as crude prices climb and supply chains face potential disruptions.

“Every $10 increase in crude oil prices impacts India’s GDP by roughly 0.5%. We have already seen prices rise by about $10–$15 recently, and the economic impact will eventually reflect in growth numbers,” she said.

West Asia tensions driving oil prices higher

The surge in oil prices follows intensifying tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical maritime corridor through which roughly 20–25% of global oil shipments pass.

Bharti said the conflict has injected additional uncertainty into global energy markets and added what she described as a “war premium” to crude prices.

“It’s not just about the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz closing. Insurance costs and freight charges are rising, and shipments are being rerouted. All these factors add a war premium to crude oil prices and increase market uncertainty,” she said.

Risks extend beyond shipping

According to Bharti, the risks go beyond maritime routes and extend to energy infrastructure itself.

“Energy sites such as crude oil facilities and LNG plants are potential targets. There are also concerns about seabed cables and other critical infrastructure. So the threat is not only to energy supply but also to broader global trade and connectivity,” she noted.

Crude prices rise sharply

Oil prices have already surged as tensions intensified in the region.

Bharti said crude climbed from around $69 per barrel to nearly $78 per barrel within a week.

“In just one week we have seen prices move from about $69 to $78 per barrel. If tensions persist, crude could rise further to around $85–$87 per barrel in the coming days,” she said.

India’s reliance on Middle Eastern crude

India remains particularly vulnerable to such price shocks due to its heavy dependence on imported oil.

Bharti noted that roughly half of India’s crude imports come from the Middle East, and many domestic refineries are specifically configured to process Middle Eastern crude grades.

“India imports nearly 50% of its crude from the Middle East, so any disruption in the region directly impacts supply availability and pricing,” she said.

India maintains strategic petroleum reserves that can help cushion short-term disruptions, but Bharti emphasised that these are primarily meant for emergencies.

“We have reserves that can last about 25–30 days in emergency situations, but the structural dependence on Middle Eastern supply remains,” she said.

She added that even brief supply disruptions could trigger volatility across Asian financial markets.

“Even a two-week disruption could create significant volatility in Asia. We are already seeing pressure on currencies, equity outflows and rising economic uncertainty,” Bharti said.

Diversification may cushion the impact

Bharti said India could mitigate some risks by diversifying crude supply sources.

“Russia has been offering crude at discounted prices, so India may increase purchases from Russia or other suppliers if required. Adjusting supply chains and renegotiating trade arrangements can provide some relief,” she said.

She also pointed out that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may attempt to stabilise prices, although security concerns could limit immediate production increases.

Impact on fertilisers and agriculture

Higher crude prices could also ripple into other sectors of the economy.

Bharti warned that rising energy costs may push up fertiliser prices and agricultural input costs, potentially affecting the upcoming kharif crop season.

“Higher energy costs could make fertilisers and farm inputs more expensive, which may increase the cost of cultivation for farmers,” she said.

Renewables gain strategic importance

Bharti added that the ongoing geopolitical tensions highlight the need for countries to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.

“Events like this are a wake-up call. Governments may increasingly prioritise renewable energy such as solar to reduce dependence on volatile fossil-fuel supply routes,” she said.

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