Business
Fed call ahead: Central bank eyes third rate cut amid sharp divisions; why follow-up easing looks uncertain – The Times of India
The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower borrowing costs this week, but deep divisions within the policy-making panel suggest further rate cuts will be harder to secure, analysts say.Policymakers are set to meet on December 9–10 amid a complicated economic backdrop, with inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target even as hiring weakens and unemployment rises. Economists expect Chair Jerome Powell to back a quarter-point cut — the third this year — though dissent is likely to be unusually high, AP reported.Some analysts believe as many as three officials could vote against the cut, marking the most dissenting votes in six years. Only 12 of the Fed’s 19 rate-setting committee members vote on decisions, and several non-voting officials have also expressed opposition to further easing.“It’s just a really tricky time. Perfectly sensible people can reach different answers,” William English, economist at Yale School of Management and former senior Fed staffer, said, highlighting the challenge of building consensus.The debate has been complicated by sparse official data following the prolonged US government shutdown, which delayed employment and inflation readings. Inflation pressures would normally argue against rate cuts, while signs of labour market weakness point in the opposite direction.Most economists now expect a “hawkish cut” — a rate reduction accompanied by guidance suggesting the Fed may pause to assess economic conditions. Financial markets are increasingly focused on the tone of Powell’s commentary rather than the cut itself.Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid is expected to dissent again in favour of holding rates steady, potentially joined by St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem. Fed governor Stephen Miran may oppose the quarter-point move and instead argue for a larger half-point reduction.Expectations of a December cut firmed after New York Fed president John Williams said the recent rise in inflation appeared to be a temporary effect linked to tariffs, and that he still saw “room for a further adjustment” in rates. Market-implied odds of a cut now stand at about 89%, according to CME Fedwatch.Powell’s leadership is also being tested politically, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised the Fed chair and signalled that a new chair will be appointed when Powell’s term ends in May.While concerns about unemployment — which rose to 4.4% in September — are driving support for a December cut, economists caution that additional easing will depend on upcoming data. The Fed will review a backlog of jobs and inflation reports before its next meeting in January, which could either justify further cuts or compel a pause.
Business
Tui issues update on summer jet fuel shortage fears
Tui has assured holidaymakers that their peak summer flights will go ahead, despite fears of aviation fuel shortages caused by the Iran conflict.
Mathias Kiep, CFO of Tui Group, told The Independent: “I’m very much convinced that we will see no shortage in the next 10 weeks. There’s definitely enough fuel.”
Speaking as Europe’s biggest holiday company reported its financial results for October 2025-March 2026, he said: “We think that the discussion on fuel is a little bit artificial as we do see no shortages for the next few weeks.
“I would also see no impact in the summer at all except prices – and for the higher prices, we are luckily hedged.
“We do see that Europe now gets more oil from other countries like Nigeria because the increased prices made the production there profitable. We see that consumption is significantly lower than a year before and refinery capacity is also up.”
He said that even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in the long term, there will be no shortage.
The firm reported a “very successful” first half of its financial year between October 2025 and March this year. But it has warned that the second half “will require great dedication and flexibility”.
The war in Iran delivered a €40m (£35m) hit to profits – due to a combination of lost sales and the extra costs of bringing back holidaymakers from the Middle East and Asia.
In addition, Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica cost the company €5m (£4.3m).
Sebastian Ebel, chief executive of the Tui group, said: “We offer our customers a high level of security and quality, especially in turbulent times. The package holiday remains the gold standard.”
The occupancy rate on Tui cruises fell from 97 to 93 per cent due to the war in Iran. Two ships from the German cruise operation were stuck in the Gulf for 10 weeks.
Air bookings for the summer are 7 per cent below last year. The firm said people were happy to book two or three weeks in advance, but not two or three months.
Tui has seen no decline in the intention to travel, and no shift from air to surface transport. The hantavirus scare has had no impact on cruise demand.
Read more: Britons ditching Spain after rival destination drops EU biometric requirement
Business
Tui says summer bookings down as Iran war and Jamaica hurricanes hurt profits
Tui has revealed a 10% drop in UK summer bookings as consumers hesitate to make bookings and switch destinations, while the holiday firm took a 61 million euro (£39 million) hit from the Iran war and hurricanes in Jamaica.
Europe’s largest travel operator is one of several firms to be impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, which began at the end of February.
It said booked revenues for summer were down 7% compared with 2025 for its tours and airline, falling to 10% for the UK market alone.
The US and Israel’s war with Iran has led to a shift in demand from eastern to western Mediterranean destinations, while customers were displaying greater caution and making bookings closer to departure dates, Tui said.
The company also pointed to a “competitive” market for travel.
Nevertheless, Tui said it was expecting Spain, including the Balearics and the Canary Islands, and Greece to be top destinations over the summer.
The German business revealed last month that the Iran war cost it around 40 million euros (£34.7 million) after it was forced to repatriate around 5,000 passengers from two cruise ships anchored in ports in Abu Dhabi.
Tui said on Wednesday that the cruise ships had now departed safely, during a pause in the hostilities, and will commence their summer season itineraries in the Mediterranean from mid-May.
It also said it took a roughly 21 million euro (£18 million) hit during the first half of the financial year from the impact of hurricanes that swept across Jamaica in October last year.
Tui reported an underlying loss before interest and tax, and at constant currencies, of 111 million euros (£96 million) for the first half – an improvement on the 156 million euro (£135 million) loss reported the year before.
It is on track to deliver a full-year operating profit of between 1.1 and 1.4 billion euros, down from previous targets of roughly between 1.5 and 1.6 billion euros.
Sebastian Ebel, Tui’s chief executive, said: “The very strong results give us confidence for the second half of the year.
“Due to geopolitical challenges and dynamic market conditions, it will require great dedication and flexibility.
“We offer our customers a high level of security and quality, especially in turbulent times.
“Package holidays remain the gold standard.”
Business
Asian stocks today: Markets mixed as AI rally loses steam, oil prices and inflation worries weigh on sentiment – The Times of India
Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday as fading momentum in artificial intelligence-linked stocks, elevated oil prices and concerns over persistent inflation kept investors cautious.Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up less than 0.1% to 62,774.94, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.9% to 7,708.05 after recovering some recent losses.Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,645.80.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.4% to 26,246.29, while China’s Shanghai Composite was little changed, down less than 0.1% at 4,213.86.As per Reuters, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.6% for a second straight session, as markets reacted to stalled US-Iran talks and hotter-than-expected US inflation data.
AI stocks under pressure
South Korean markets remained volatile after a recent AI-driven rally pushed stocks to record highs. Korean shares had earlier dropped as much as 3.2% before recovering.Shares of Samsung Electronics plunged 5.7% after the company failed to reach a wage agreement with its labour union, raising the possibility of a strike involving more than 50,000 workers that could affect chip production.On Wall Street, major US indices ended lower overnight, with technology stocks leading declines.The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% from its record high, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, AP reported. Intel dropped 6.8% after a strong rally earlier this year, while Micron Technology lost 3.6%.“Corporate earnings and AI momentum are acting as the market’s primary shock absorbers, but the road is getting significantly rougher,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told AP.“With oil prices becoming entrenched at elevated levels and a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran remaining elusive, the easy bullish narrative is becoming much harder to maintain.”
Oil prices remain elevated amid Iran tensions
Oil prices eased slightly on Wednesday but remained near multi-month highs due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.Benchmark US crude fell 58 cents to $101.60 a barrel, while Brent crude slipped 66 cents to $107.11.Oil has largely remained above $100 per barrel since US and Israeli strikes on Iran earlier this year and Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global supply flows.The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has also failed to reassure investors, with US President Donald Trump saying on Tuesday that he does not believe China’s help is necessary to end the conflict ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.“We’ve seen this movie before, and we know it doesn’t end with a breakthrough agreement that resets the US-China relationship,” Phillip Wool of Rayliant Investment Research told Reuters.
Inflation fears dampen rate cut hopes
Investors also reacted to stronger-than-expected US inflation data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer.“A hotter-than-expected inflation report and persistent geopolitical tensions reminded investors that sticky prices and elevated energy costs are not going away anytime soon,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters.Markets have largely ruled out any Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, while expectations for a rate hike by December have risen sharply, according to CME FedWatch data.US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.47%, its highest level since July.In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened slightly against the Japanese yen to 157.77, while gold edged 0.1% higher and bitcoin slipped marginally.
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