Business
Home prices go negative for the first time in over 2 years — and may stay that way for a while
A home is shown for sale in The Heights in Houston, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025.
Kirk Sides | Houston Chronicle | Getty Images
Home prices have finally come down compared with last year, though just fractionally, according to daily reads from Parcl Labs, which looks at high-frequency listing data on single-family homes, condos and townhomes, both new and existing.
They may stay softer, though, as home prices are down 1.4% in just the last three months.
On a national level, home prices have not gone negative since mid-2023, a year after the Federal Reserve first brought rates up from zero, and mortgage rates moved sharply higher. From March 2022 to June 2023, the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage went from 3.9% to just over 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
But even then, prices were negative on a year-over-year basis for just a few months. It was nothing like the great financial crisis when home prices dropped 27% from their peak in 2006 to their trough in 2012, according to the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
“More recently we have seen a period of national softness emerging after the rapid run-up during the Covid years, 2020 to 2022,” said Jason Lewris, co-founder of Parcl Labs. “The sharp increase in mortgage rates in 2022 and 2023 created an affordability shock: buyers were priced out, sales volumes dropped, and sellers had to adjust expectations. Historically, that combination of a credit or affordability shock, weaker demand, and more inventory than the market can easily absorb is what tends to produce broad national price declines.”
Inventory today is still historically low, but it has come off its near-record lows of recent years. Active listings in November were nearly 13% higher than November 2024, but new listings were just 1.7% higher, according to Realtor.com. Sellers are also pulling their homes off the market at an unusually high rate.
Prices nationally are down less than 1%, but certain markets are seeing more significant drops: Prices in Austin, Texas, are down 10% from last year; in Denver, they’re down 5%, according to Parcl Labs. Tampa, Florida, and Houston both saw prices fall 4%, and Atlanta and Phoenix saw price decreases of 3%.
There are also markets seeing gains: in Cleveland, prices gained 6%; Chicago and New York City both saw price increases of 5%; Philadelphia saw prices rise 3%; and Pittsburgh and Boston both saw 2% price gains, according to Parcl.
While other home price indexes and surveys measure just existing home values, this one measures both new and existing. There has been no government data on housing starts, building permits or sales of newly built homes since before the government shutdown started, so it’s difficult to paint any kind of supply picture in the price forecast.
That said, builders reporting quarterly earnings have indicated that demand is still relatively weak and incentives are still necessary. Homebuilder sentiment is still well into negative territory.
“We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, in a November release. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.”
Mortgage rates have not moved much in the last three months, and had very little reaction to the latest Federal Reserve rate cut Wednesday. Home prices, therefore, are unlikely to do much either.
“Our base case from here is not a deep national downturn, but a period where prices hover around zero, with small positive or small negative year over year changes, rather than the double digit gains of the pandemic era,” said Lewris. “How far they move in either direction will depend mainly on mortgage rates and the broader health of the economy.”
Business
Iran oil attacks trigger 35% gas price spike – and fears of interest rate rises
Britain is to “step up” defensive support for Gulf states after Iran attacked energy sites across the region in a “serious escalation” of the war that could push up inflation and interest rates.
The price of Brent crude climbed as high as $119 a barrel and European gas prices briefly surged by 35 per cent after Iran pounded Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub and other Middle Eastern oil and gas infrastructure with missiles.
Interest rates were held at 3.75 per cent instead of the previously expected cut, as the Bank of England warned that the war could push inflation as high as 3.5 per cent by July on the back of rising energy bills, and that rates could rise – creating misery for homeowners.
It came as:
- US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said “ungrateful” European allies should be thanking Donald Trump for the war
- Trump claimed he was unaware of Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field
- Oman called the US/Israel attacks a “grave miscalculation”
- Europe’s biggest airlines warned of higher fares
Iran’s attacks were in retaliation to an Israeli strike on the vital South Pars gas field, which drew condemnation from the Gulf states as well as Tehran. It was the first attack of the war so far on an energy production facility. Tehran fired missiles at multiple energy sites across the Gulf, including a Saudi oil refinery, Qatari gas facilities and two more oil refineries in Kuwait.
While Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron called for de-escalation, President Trump threatened to “massively blow up” the South Pars facility if Iran did not halt its retaliatory attacks, repeating his claim that US forces had “obliterated” Iran’s navy and military, adding that the war was “substantially ahead of schedule”. He denied that plans were being made to send more American troops to the region.
John Healey, the UK defence secretary, said Tehran’s tit-for-tat responses threatened to further destabilise the region and Europe’s economies. He called them a “serious escalation”, adding: “They further destabilise the region and we will step up the defensive support that we can offer to those Gulf states.”
British forces are already deployed to the Middle East, with RAF jets flying defensive sorties against Iranian drones across the Gulf and British air defence systems protecting critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. UK military planners have also joined US Central Command to help formulate proposals for opening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for the world’s oil and gas.But there were signs of growing frustration towards Washington’s war aims in the Gulf states, with Oman’s foreign minister claiming that the conflict was President Trump’s “greatest miscalculation”.
In the most scathing attack on Washington’s foreign policy yet by a Gulf state, Badr Albusaidi said “this is not America’s war” and criticised Mr Trump for supporting Israel. Writing in The Economist, he called on American allies to help extricate it from the conflict, which has continued for a third week despite failing to achieve the US and Israel’s stated aim of instigating regime change in Tehran or stopping its nuclear programme.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England has warned that it may have to put up interest rates if the war continues to drive up inflation and unemployment. Its governor, Andrew Bailey, said the impact was already being felt by consumers as petrol prices surge and that he is “ready to act as necessary to ensure inflation remains on track to meet the 2 per cent target”. That would pave the way for a rate hike as early as the end of April.
Bets on the financial markets suggest a 50/50 chance that Britain will face higher interest rates from next month – and the possibility of two more rises by the end of the year.
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said: “Markets are now pricing in an almost 50 per cent chance that April’s meeting will see rates rise to 4 per cent with the potential for two additional rate hikes by the end of the year. But no one has a crystal ball. No one knows how long the conflict will last or the amount of damage that could be inflicted on crucial energy infrastructure by the time it ends.”
Business
Watch: How oil and gas prices are pushing up the cost of living
From fuel to mortgages, the BBC looks at how oil and gas prices could push up the cost of living.
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Business
US considers lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil
“To put it mildly, this is bananas,” said David Tannenbaum, director of Blackstone Compliance Services, a consultancy specialising in maritime sanctions. “Essentially we’re allowing Iran to sell oil, which could then be used to fund the war effort.”
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