Business
India Inflation To Remain Benign In FY27, Another Rate Cut Only If Growth Requires It: Report
New Delhi: Well stocked granaries, low oil prices and longer-lasting drivers of core disinflation are likely to keep India inflation benign in FY27 as well, according to a new report.
HSBC Global Investment Research said in its report that “we do not forecast more RBI repo rate cuts, but the risks, if any, are of more easing, if growth disappoints”.
November CPI inflation came in at 0.7 per cent (on-year), in line with market expectation. Despite a sequential uptick of 0.4 per cent (on-month), the annual prints remained depressed due to base effect.
Excluding gold, headline CPI remained in deflation (-0.1 per cent in November compared to -0.6 per cent previously).
“Deflation in food prices continued for a third month in annual terms. Sequentially, food prices rose 0.5 per cent on-month after two months of contraction. Vegetables prices picked up after falling for two straight months along with a rise in the prices of protein items like egg, meat and fish,” said the report.
“Gold prices kept core inflation elevated. With a weight of 1.1 per cent in the CPI basket and prices up 59 per cent in November, gold alone explains c63bp of CPI inflation. Our preferred definition of core (excluding food, energy, housing and gold) had been steady at 3.2 per cent y-o-y in 3Q25, and has now fallen to 2.5 per cent in November,” said the report.
Following a sharp fall in October, November goods inflation remained benign.
According to the report, strong cereal production, well-stocked granaries, and winter disinflation are likely to help keep a lid on food inflation over the near future.
“And it is not just easing food prices. The high base of last year is likely to keep CPI inflation soft for the next few months. Global oil prices, too, have been low, and cheaper imports from China will likely keep core inflation soft for a prolonged period,” it noted.
The RBI has lowered H1 FY27 inflation forecast by 50 bp (4.5 per cent previously to 4 per cent now).
“However our forecasts are 50 bp lower than the RBI’s (at 3.5 per cent). If we are correct, and the RBI eventually makes further downward adjustment to inflation, there would be space to ease further, if growth requires it,” said the report.
Business
Iran oil attacks trigger 35% gas price spike – and fears of interest rate rises
Britain is to “step up” defensive support for Gulf states after Iran attacked energy sites across the region in a “serious escalation” of the war that could push up inflation and interest rates.
The price of Brent crude climbed as high as $119 a barrel and European gas prices briefly surged by 35 per cent after Iran pounded Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub and other Middle Eastern oil and gas infrastructure with missiles.
Interest rates were held at 3.75 per cent instead of the previously expected cut, as the Bank of England warned that the war could push inflation as high as 3.5 per cent by July on the back of rising energy bills, and that rates could rise – creating misery for homeowners.
It came as:
- US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said “ungrateful” European allies should be thanking Donald Trump for the war
- Trump claimed he was unaware of Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field
- Oman called the US/Israel attacks a “grave miscalculation”
- Europe’s biggest airlines warned of higher fares
Iran’s attacks were in retaliation to an Israeli strike on the vital South Pars gas field, which drew condemnation from the Gulf states as well as Tehran. It was the first attack of the war so far on an energy production facility. Tehran fired missiles at multiple energy sites across the Gulf, including a Saudi oil refinery, Qatari gas facilities and two more oil refineries in Kuwait.
While Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron called for de-escalation, President Trump threatened to “massively blow up” the South Pars facility if Iran did not halt its retaliatory attacks, repeating his claim that US forces had “obliterated” Iran’s navy and military, adding that the war was “substantially ahead of schedule”. He denied that plans were being made to send more American troops to the region.
John Healey, the UK defence secretary, said Tehran’s tit-for-tat responses threatened to further destabilise the region and Europe’s economies. He called them a “serious escalation”, adding: “They further destabilise the region and we will step up the defensive support that we can offer to those Gulf states.”
British forces are already deployed to the Middle East, with RAF jets flying defensive sorties against Iranian drones across the Gulf and British air defence systems protecting critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. UK military planners have also joined US Central Command to help formulate proposals for opening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for the world’s oil and gas.But there were signs of growing frustration towards Washington’s war aims in the Gulf states, with Oman’s foreign minister claiming that the conflict was President Trump’s “greatest miscalculation”.
In the most scathing attack on Washington’s foreign policy yet by a Gulf state, Badr Albusaidi said “this is not America’s war” and criticised Mr Trump for supporting Israel. Writing in The Economist, he called on American allies to help extricate it from the conflict, which has continued for a third week despite failing to achieve the US and Israel’s stated aim of instigating regime change in Tehran or stopping its nuclear programme.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England has warned that it may have to put up interest rates if the war continues to drive up inflation and unemployment. Its governor, Andrew Bailey, said the impact was already being felt by consumers as petrol prices surge and that he is “ready to act as necessary to ensure inflation remains on track to meet the 2 per cent target”. That would pave the way for a rate hike as early as the end of April.
Bets on the financial markets suggest a 50/50 chance that Britain will face higher interest rates from next month – and the possibility of two more rises by the end of the year.
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said: “Markets are now pricing in an almost 50 per cent chance that April’s meeting will see rates rise to 4 per cent with the potential for two additional rate hikes by the end of the year. But no one has a crystal ball. No one knows how long the conflict will last or the amount of damage that could be inflicted on crucial energy infrastructure by the time it ends.”
Business
Watch: How oil and gas prices are pushing up the cost of living
From fuel to mortgages, the BBC looks at how oil and gas prices could push up the cost of living.
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Business
US considers lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil
“To put it mildly, this is bananas,” said David Tannenbaum, director of Blackstone Compliance Services, a consultancy specialising in maritime sanctions. “Essentially we’re allowing Iran to sell oil, which could then be used to fund the war effort.”
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