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Our guide to every Week 16 NFL game: Matchup previews, predictions and what’s at stake
The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2025 season should bring some intriguing matchups with playoff hopes and dreams on the line. The Lions want to grab a much-needed win over the Steelers, the Eagles have the chance to keep the Cowboys out of the postseason with a win Saturday, and the Buccaneers and Panthers are fighting for a chance to take a lead in the NFC South.
We have you covered with everything you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and ESPN Research provides a key stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game.
Let’s get into the Week 16 slate, which culminates with the 49ers playing the Colts on “Monday Night Football” on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
PHI-WSH | GB-CHI | LAC-DAL
BUF-CLE | KC-TEN | CIN-MIA
TB-CAR | MIN-NYG | NYJ-NO
JAX-DEN | ATL-ARI | PIT-DET
LV-HOU | NE-BAL | SF-IND
Thursday: LAR-SEA
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET | Fox | PHI -7 (44.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Eagles: Coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense has turned it up since Philadelphia’s Week 9 bye, ranking first in opponent completion percentage (51.5%), second in opponent passer rating (67.2) and third in points allowed per game (14.3). Philadelphia limited Las Vegas to 75 total yards last week, marking the fewest yards allowed by a team since 2023. Fangio gave the offense a good bit of the credit in the shutout, noting that it moved the ball and got the run game going. “Anytime you have a game like that, usually the whole team contributes,” he said. Clock-draining drives on offense coupled with this dominant defense is a winning formula. — Tim McManus
What we’re hearing on the Commanders: If Washington wants to upset the Eagles, it must start with its run game. Washington started the season strong in this area, ranking first in rushing yards after five weeks — partly because of its QB runs. The Commanders have rushed for at least 145 yards in four of their past six games — a result of playing in closer matchups, but also due to strong blocking from the tight ends and offensive line. Rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt is coming off a 96-yard game in which half his yards came after first contact. Chris Rodriguez Jr. will be used for his power. Both need to improve in the passing game, but coach Dan Quinn said, “I like the combination of the two. They’re different in size, but both of them have an aggressive style and so they can break tackles.” — John Keim
Stat to know: After recording only three receiving touchdowns through the first nine games of the season, Eagles receiver A.J. Brown has four over his the past four games. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell will not allow a single reception. Mitchell is red hot in terms of his coverage numbers. Since Week 11, he has allowed 0.2 yards per coverage snap, best among all outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps in that span. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win or a Cowboys loss. Philadelphia could be the first repeat champion of the NFC East in 20 seasons. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Eagles | Commanders
Fantasy nugget: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert and Brown all belong in lineups. Washington’s defense has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to QBs, the sixth most to RBs, the ninth most to WRs and the fifth most to TEs. Hurts has averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game against Washington in his career. View that as his floor, not his ceiling. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 4-1 ATS (against the spread) in the past five meetings (overs: 4-1). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 21, Commanders 17
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 10
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 67.6% (by an average of 6.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Hurts bounces back as Eagles praise QB’s resolve … Commanders QB Daniels ‘super frustrated’ by 2025 season … Commanders find meaning in win at Giants
Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Fox | GB -1.5 (46.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Packers: There’s no downplaying the impact Micah Parsons had after he arrived in Green Bay via trade before the start of the season. But now that the Packers have lost him to a season-ending knee injury, at least they can go back to an entire offseason of planning before they even knew getting Parsons was a possibility. That’s where defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley comes in. Not only does he have plenty of playcalls that didn’t include Parsons, but he has proven to be adept at rallying players. “A week ago, we’re in here after we beat the Bears, and we’re all walking in here all upbeat and ready to roll,” Hafley said. “I said, ‘Shame on you if you walk in here any different today.’ That’s not who we are. That’s our job as leaders and coaches, to make sure that we don’t do that. We’ve got really good players. We’ve played good defense, and we’re going to continue to play good defense.” — Rob Demovsky
What we’re hearing on the Bears: QB Caleb Williams played arguably his best game of the season against the Browns, as he surpassed his touchdown total from his rookie season (20) and got the Bears’ offense off to its fastest start in weeks. His mechanics, accuracy (60.7% completion rate) and anticipation of coverages stood out to coach Ben Johnson as a sign of comfort and command. A repeat of last week’s performance from Williams would go a long way in helping the Bears lock up a postseason bid. “If I play how I played this past game or if I played better than that, we’ve got a real shot to do whatever we want in this league,” Williams said. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Williams needs 689 passing yards to break the Bears’ single-season record (Erik Kramer had 3,838 passing yards in 1995). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Packers S Xavier McKinney will record an interception. The Packers safety has a 33% hawk percentage — the rate of targets against him on which he recorded either a pass defensed or an interception — which is third highest among safeties with at least 250 coverage snaps. — Walder
What’s at stake: The winner of this game will clinch a playoff berth if the Lions lose. But neither team can claim the NFC North this week. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:42
Do Packers have an excuse if they fail to reach SB? Stephen A. weighs in
Stephen A. Smith discusses whether the Packers’ injuries give the team an excuse if they don’t win the Super Bowl.
Fantasy nugget: Packers WR Jayden Reed has produced 108 scrimmage yards off 10 targets since returning from injury two weeks ago. He should remain a key playmaker in the offense, especially with Christian Watson (chest) questionable. Reed faces a Bears defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bears 20, Packers 10
Moody’s pick: Bears 24, Packers 23
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Bears 24
FPI prediction: GB, 57.7% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: When in 2026 might Packers’ Parsons return from ACL tear?
1 p.m. ET | Fox | DAL -2.5 (49.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chargers: QB Justin Herbert has thrown the third-most interceptions in the NFL this season (12) and the second most of his career. This comes a season after Herbert threw the fewest interceptions in the league and of his career (three). But he said the uptick in turnovers won’t change his play style. “Just because I’ve thrown one before doesn’t mean that I’m going to play scared or I can’t throw another one,” Herbert said. — Kris Rhim
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: By the time the Cowboys kick off against the Chargers, they will likely know whether they have been eliminated from the playoffs (if the Eagles beat the Commanders on Saturday). But coach Brian Schottenheimer’s message to the players will not change. “All about winning,” he said. “It’s always going to be all about winning whether we’re sitting at undefeated or wherever we are today. It’s always going to be about winning because again our mantra and central theme of the program is compete every day.” — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is 69 passing yards shy of his fourth 4,000-yard season. That would tie Tony Romo for the most in franchise history. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chargers CB Cam Hart will surrender at least 80 yards in coverage. Hart’s coverage numbers are poor this season, as he has allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap, fourth most among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. Against Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, he could struggle. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a loss by either the Texans or Colts. They would be eliminated from AFC West title contention with a loss and a Broncos win. The Cowboys are eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or an Eagles win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Herbert hasn’t scored 20 or more fantasy points since Week 8. However, this matchup sets up as a clear bounce-back opportunity. Dallas’ defense has allowed the most fantasy points per game to QBs and to WRs. The Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy finished with a season-high 23.5 points against them last week. Herbert and WR Ladd McConkey could thrive. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 9-2 in the Cowboys’ past 11 games, including three straight overs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chargers 24, Cowboys 21
Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Cowboys 20
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 24, Chargers 20
FPI prediction: LAC, 51.4% (by an average of 0.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chargers’ surging defense looks capable of carrying team … What is going on with Diggs and the Cowboys?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | BUF -10.5 (41.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bills: QB Josh Allen, the reigning MVP, has firmly planted himself back in the awards conversation, but his focus is elsewhere. “I’m just trying to do my job, just trying to find a way to get in the playoffs here,” Allen said. The 29-year-old has a chance to make history Sunday. With just one more touchdown, Allen will become the youngest and fastest NFL player to reach 300 scores. — Alaina Getzenberg
What we’re hearing on the Browns: DE Myles Garrett is one sack away from tying the NFL’s single-season sack record shared by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt, and he’s 1.5 sacks away from breaking it. Surpassing 22.5 sacks through 15 games played would give Garrett the distinction of achieving the feat in fewer games than it took Strahan in 2001 (16) and in just as many as it took Watt in 2021. “That’s why I got to get back on the field,” said CB Denzel Ward, who missed last week’s game and is currently questionable because of a calf injury. “I told him don’t break the record without me out there. I got to be out there when he breaks the record. … I’m hoping he gets to [break the record] this week and like I said, it’s not a matter if, but when he gets that record. And just the credit to him and the work that he’s put in and the entire defense. You can’t do it alone.” — Daniel Oyefusi
Stat to know: Allen has had three passing touchdowns and no interceptions in each of his past two games. No Bills quarterback has ever had three straight games with three passing touchdowns. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Garrett won’t record a sack against Allen. I think Garrett will have to wait another week to break the record. Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins currently ranks second in pass block win rate at 95.3%. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Bills can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win and either a Texans or Colts loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
0:50
Is Quinshon Judkins a good fantasy play vs. Bills?
Field Yates explains why Quinshon Judkins is outside his top 20 for fantasy running backs in Week 16.
Fantasy nugget: The Browns’ Harold Fannin Jr. is currently the TE8 in ESPN leagues. He has been superb and has recorded at least 11 fantasy points in three consecutive games, including one with 25.4 points. Over that span, Fannin has stockpiled 30 total targets. The only TE with more targets than him this season is Trey McBride. The Bills’ defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position, but don’t let that deter you from starting Fannin given his elite target volume. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bills 34, Browns 10
Moody’s pick: Bills 24, Browns 13
Walder’s pick: Bills 31, Browns 10
FPI prediction: BUF, 80.4% (by an average of 12.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bills’ special teams playing key role in pursuit for playoffs … Optimistic QB Sanders believes nowhere to go but up for Browns … Tracking Garrett’s quest to break the single-season sack record
1 p.m. ET | CBS | KC -3 (37.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: Backup QB Gardner Minshew, a seven-year veteran, will be the team’s starter for the final three games after Patrick Mahomes tore two ligaments in his left knee last week. The stretch will serve as an audition for Minshew to remain with the Chiefs next season. After all, the Chiefs don’t have another QB under contract for 2026. “It’s an opportunity to step in and do my job,” Minshew said. “Being how there’s a lot of guys that have put a ton of work into this, I owe it to them. I owe it to this coaching staff, this team [and] this fan base to go out and do my best to give us the best chance to win.” — Nate Taylor
What we’re hearing on the Titans: The Titans are looking to close out their home schedule with two wins, starting with the Chiefs. “That’s the plan to win both of those at the crib and go into next year with a little home-game winning streak because that’s what our fans need to see,” QB Cam Ward said. Tennessee hasn’t won consecutive games at Nissan Stadium since December 2021, but with RB Tony Pollard having posted back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances, the Titans are molding into a physical, run-first team down the stretch. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Titans are 4-2 versus the Chiefs since Andy Reid became coach in 2013. Tennessee is one of four teams with a winning regular record versus Kansas City under Reid. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chiefs DT Chris Jones will record multiple sacks. Since Week 12, Jones has led all players in pass rush win rate regardless of alignment. His 31% PRWR in that span was well ahead of the next-best player (Micah Parsons at 26%). — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The Titans have a 19.1% chance at the No. 1 pick in April’s draft, per ESPN Analytics. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The entire Chiefs passing game takes a hit moving from Mahomes to Minshew, but there are reasons for optimism. Minshew is an aggressive passer who likes to lock in on his top target. Every team for which he has made at least nine starts in a season produced a 1,000-yard receiver. Minshew is also capable of attacking defenses vertically and underneath, which bodes well for WR Rashee Rice against a Titans secondary that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 8-17 ATS as underdogs since the start of last season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 20, Titans 16
Moody’s pick: Titans 17, Chiefs 14
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 20, Titans 17
FPI prediction: KC, 68.5% (by an average of 6.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chiefs QB Mahomes begins rehab after tearing knee ligaments, eyes Week 1 return … QB Ward wants Titans to involve him in HC search process … After playoff elimination, is Chiefs’ Super Bowl window closing?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | CIN -4.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: Cincinnati will have a chance to evaluate its roster in the final three games. That includes the six rookies who have seen the field this season. That could involve DE Shemar Stewart, who could potentially make his return from injured reserve to face Miami rookie QB Quinn Ewers. Coach Zac Taylor said, “I’m fired up when we do get him out there, whether it’s this week or not, for the future that he’s got here because he’s a guy that I’m really high on.” — Ben Baby
What we’re hearing on the Dolphins: Mike McDaniel made the biggest decision of his head coaching career, benching QB Tua Tagovailoa for Ewers this week. McDaniel said he needed more “conviction” at the QB position and that Ewers gives the team its best chance to win Sunday. In terms of what Miami’s game plan will look like against Cincinnati, offensive coordinator Frank Smith said Ewers has such a firm grasp of the playbook that the Dolphins don’t plan on changing much. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase has had a career-high six 100-yard receiving games this season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Dolphins will record at least 180 yards after catch. Not only does Miami rely on YAC for a high percentage (54%) of its passing yards, but the Bengals have allowed 533 yards after catch over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is the most by any team and 198 more than the next-highest team. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Bengals have 62% chance to land a top-10 pick in the draft, and the Dolphins have a 55% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
2:19
Stephen A. reacts to Tua Tagovailoa being benched by the Dolphins
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Dolphins had to bench Tua Tagovailoa.
Fantasy nugget: Dolphins TE Darren Waller has played in seven games and has scored at least 17 fantasy points in three. Last week, he finished with season highs in targets (eight), receptions (seven) and fantasy points (25.6). Now Waller faces a Bengals defense that has allowed the most targets, receptions and fantasy points per game to TEs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 0-3 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bengals 27, Dolphins 19
Moody’s pick: Bengals 26, Dolphins 24
Walder’s pick: Bengals 23, Dolphins 17
FPI prediction: CIN, 70.0% (by an average of 8.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: QB Burrow, on future with Bengals, says ‘crazy things happen’ … After benching, what’s next for QB Tagovailoa, Dolphins? … Why Dolphins coach McDaniel is more than a meme
1 p.m. ET | Fox | TB -3 (45.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Buccaneers: QB Baker Mayfield said there hasn’t been any finger pointing in the Bucs locker room despite the team losing its past two games to divisional opponents, and that it’s unfair to pin this on the defense. “The finger pointing [is] only happening if you have bad culture in the building. That’s not a problem we have to deal with. We met on Monday with the offense, and I told them what I said in the postgame press conference. I said, ‘It’s on me, it’s on this group. I expect us to be able to score more than 28 [points] in a situation like that and put the game out of reach.'” — Jenna Laine
What we’re hearing on the Panthers: “The ball is in our court. It’s just our job to make sure we put it in the rim,” WR Tetairoa McMillan said as the Panthers prepare for the first of two games against the Bucs over the final three weeks with the teams tied for the NFC South lead at 7-7. Carolina blew a chance Sunday to be in the driver’s seat with a last-second loss to New Orleans. Now it needs a sweep of Tampa Bay for a realistic shot, but having a chance is all the team cares about now. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Buccaneers’ defense is allowing 9.8 YAC per reception in its past six games (since Week 10), which is the second most in the NFL in that span behind only the Eagles (11.2). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving will average at least 6.0 yards per carry. The Bucs run inside zone 39% of the time, third most in the NFL, and the Panthers are allowing 5.5 yards per carry against inside zone — much higher than their average against other types of runs. — Walder
What’s at stake: The teams are tied atop the NFC South standings at 7-7. The Bucs hold the tiebreaker over Panthers based on win percentage in common games. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Buccaneers | Panthers
Fantasy nugget: Panthers QB Bryce Young has averaged an impressive 19.5 fantasy points per game since Week 11. The Bucs’ defense has been eviscerated by QBs since Week 12, allowing 1,098 passing yards and eight touchdowns, and the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins just posted 26.9 fantasy points. Young and his No. 1 WR McMillan could shine in this matchup. Jalen Coker is also in play in deeper formats, as he has seen at least four targets and scored 14 or more fantasy points in two straight games. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers are 6-0 ATS after a loss this season and have covered eight straight after a loss. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 28
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 23
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: TB, 56.6% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Examining Bucs-Panthers showdown for NFC South, playoff spot … Inconsistent Panthers failed to take control of NFC South
1 p.m. ET | Fox | MIN -3 (43.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Vikings: The Vikings’ late-season schedule has gifted QB J.J. McCarthy another chance to demonstrate statistical improvement. The Giants’ defense ranks No. 29 in the NFL in EPA per play. McCarthy is coming off the two best games of his career against the Commanders and Cowboys, whose defenses rank 30th and 32nd in EPA per play, respectively. A true measure of McCarthy’s progress could come if the Giants blitz as often as they usually do (41% of dropbacks). To date, McCarthy has the lowest QBR against the blitz (6.5). — Kevin Seifert
What we’re hearing on the Giants: Rookie QB Jaxson Dart expects to see things Sunday he has never seen before. “Just chaos. Chaos,” he said of what he sees from Minnesota coordinator Brian Flores’ defense on tape. The Vikings have blitzed at a league-high 48.9% rate this season. That provides quite the challenge for Dart and the Giants, who are looking for their first win since Week 6. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: McCarthy is coming off career highs in passing yards (250), yards per attempt (10.4) and Total QBR (86) in Week 15. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Vikings DT Jalen Redmond will record the highest run stop win rate of any defensive tackle in Week 16. Redmond ranks fifth (39.6%) in the category among interior defenders, and Giants guards have combined for the lowest run block win rate in the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. The Giants have a 74.8% chance of getting a top-five pick. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:38
Why a full offseason could be key for Jaxson Dart’s growth
Jason McCourty and Jeff Saturday explain how the upcoming offseason will be important for Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.
Fantasy nugget: Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. is in a good spot against a Vikings defense that has been stingy against opposing QBs, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game. However, Minnesota has given up the ninth-most rushing yards per game. Tracy is trending up at the perfect time for fantasy managers, finishing with 18 touches and a season-high 24.7 fantasy points in Week 15. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 8-1 in the Giants’ past nine games, including 4-0 in their past four home games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Vikings 17, Giants 13
Moody’s pick: Vikings 30, Giants 23
Walder’s pick: Giants 20, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: NYG, 55.3% (by an average of 2.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ Greenard (shoulder) to miss rest of season … Can Giants LB Carter follow up his ‘statement’ game?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | NO -5.5 (40.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Jets: Chris Harris will make his debut as the interim defensive coordinator, inheriting a unit that allowed 82 points in the past two games. Harris, a first-time playcaller, won’t make significant changes, just some tweaks — less blitzing, perhaps. “I’m a former player. … I understand how they think,” he said. “We want to play with grit, we want to play with toughness. Those are things we want to try and put on display.” — Rich Cimini
What we’re hearing on the Saints: WR Devaughn Vele (shoulder) and RB Devin Neal (hamstring) have already been ruled out, so QB Tyler Shough will have fewer playmakers. Expect to see RBs Evan Hull and Audric Estime share carries, while practice squad receiver Kevin Austin Jr. should see increased opportunities like he did last week. “I think Joel [Thomas] is one of the best running backs coaches in the league, so he prepares these guys as good as anyone I’ve ever been around and so these guys are dialed,” coach Kellen Moore said. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: The Jets’ three takeaways so far this season are the fewest of all time through a team’s first 14 games. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Jets guards John Simpson and Joe Tippmann will record pass block win rates over 96%. Saints players have combined for just a 5% pass rush win rate from the interior. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Jets have a 71% chance to land a top-five pick in draft, according to ESPN Analytics. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Saints’ defense has allowed more than 21 points just once in its past five games, generating six turnovers and averaging two sacks per contest. New Orleans now faces a Jets offense ranked near the bottom of the league in total yards and points scored with rookie Brady Cook likely under center. The Saints will also be at home in what is expected to be a low-scoring game. This is a great recipe for a high-upside streaming defense. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints have covered three straight games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Jets 17, Saints 14
Moody’s pick: Saints 24, Jets 17
Walder’s pick: Saints 26, Jets 16
FPI prediction: NO, 76.2% (by an average of 10.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jets in evaluation mode, will start rookie QB Cook again … With Neal, Vele out, who steps up for Saints? … Jets fire DC Wilks in one of their worst defensive seasons … Inside the Saints’ winning drive vs. Panthers
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | DEN -3 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: A good matchup will be the Jaguars’ red zone offense versus the Broncos’ red zone defense, which is the best in the NFL. Teams have scored touchdowns on only 38.5% of their red zone drives against the Broncos, the only team holding opponents to TDs on less than 45% of their drives. The Jaguars’ offense ranks 13th in the red zone, but during the team’s five-game win streak, it has scored TDs on 70.8% of its red zone drives. QB Trevor Lawrence has an NFL-high 10 passing TDs in the red zone during the streak. — Michael DiRocco
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: Over the past five games, Lawrence has thrown 12 touchdown passes and three interceptions, and he has nine touchdowns and no interceptions over the past four. With the Broncos in position to clinch the AFC West title for the first time since 2015, the league’s top pass rush is going to be important against Lawrence. The Broncos are the league’s best at quick pressures, while Lawrence has been one of the more difficult QBs to get quick pressure on this season (18th at 11.4% of his dropbacks), and he wasn’t sacked in three of the Jaguars’ past five games. Denver’s defense has 27 sacks in its seven home games. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Broncos RB RJ Harvey (six rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns this season) needs one receiving touchdown to become the fifth rookie in NFL history with five receiving touchdowns and five rushing scores. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Broncos QB Bo Nix won’t be sacked. He has been exceptional at sack avoidance this season with a 3.0% sack rate that is lowest among QBR-qualifying QBs, and he has a good offensive line in front of him. The Jaguars’ defense has just a 5.4% sack rate, fourth lowest in the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos need a win and a Chargers loss to clinch the AFC West. To clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Denver needs a win and losses by Chargers, Patriots and Bills this week. The Jaguars need a win and a loss by either the Texans or Colts to make the playoffs. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:09
Can Trevor Lawrence keep up his hot fantasy play vs. Broncos?
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why Trevor Lawrence is outside the top 10 of his fantasy quarterbacks for Week 16 despite a stellar game vs. the Jets.
Fantasy nugget: Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers has been in sync with Lawrence since arriving in Jacksonville. Over his past five games, he has averaged 7.0 targets and 14.9 fantasy points. The matchup against the Broncos’ secondary is tough, but Brian Thomas Jr. should draw ample defensive attention, which benefits Meyers. Denver has also allowed the seventh-most targets per game to WRs, giving Meyers a strong chance to rack up receptions. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their past five games, the longest active cover streak in the NFL and tied for the longest streak by any team this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Broncos 27, Jaguars 21
Moody’s pick: Broncos 24, Jaguars 20
Walder’s pick: Broncos 26, Jaguars 23
FPI prediction: DEN, 58.2% (by an average of 2.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Are Jaguars WRs and QB Lawrence finally on the same page? … Keys to Broncos QB Nix’s improved play
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ATL -3 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Falcons: Atlanta offensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich said he “slept on” Cardinals TE Trey McBride last season when the coach was with the Jets. He won’t do that again — in fact, Ulbrich said he believes McBride is the “engine” of the Arizona offense and someone who has a chance to be “one of the better tight ends that has played this game.” It could end up being a battle of TEs with the Falcons’ Kyle Pitts Sr. coming off a 166-yard, three-touchdown performance. — Marc Raimondi
What we’re hearing on the Cardinals: McBride is coming off his best game of the season — and that’s saying something — with 134 yards and two touchdowns on 12 catches. Last week, the Cardinals could hear the Texans’ frustration with trying to contain McBride and hope to draw the same kind of frustration out of the Falcons. Even though both teams have experience practicing against elite TEs, it might not matter in the long run. “Obviously after a while you kind of like look at the tablet and you’re like, ‘How are they trying to do it,’ and then the picture becomes a little bit more clear and you’re able to manipulate it a little bit. … Like I said, I have the easy part of just finding him and throwing him in the ball. It makes bad throws look like good catches,” QB Jacoby Brissett said. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Of the Falcons’ 48 defensive sacks — second most in the NFL — 15 have been by rookies. James Pearce Jr. leads the team with 8.0 sacks. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: McBride, coming off a 12-catch game, will record no more than five receptions. Only 14% of targets against the Falcons’ defense go to TEs, the lowest rate in the NFL. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Rams hold the Falcons’ first-round pick from their trade during the 2025 draft. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Brissett has been matchup proof in his nine starts this season, finishing as a top-12 fantasy QB in every one. He has averaged 42.7 pass attempts and 21.1 fantasy points over that stretch. The Cardinals’ defense ranks near the bottom of the league in total yards and points allowed, which has boosted Brissett’s fantasy outlook, and that should continue against a middle-of-the-road Falcons defense. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 1-6 outright and ATS as a betting favorite this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Cardinals 28, Falcons 24
Moody’s pick: Falcons 27, Cardinals 21
Walder’s pick: Falcons 23, Cardinals 22
FPI prediction: ARI, 53.2% (by an average of 1.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cousins’ last stand? Falcons veteran QB playing for another chance … Coach Gannon: Hard to practice tackling under current NFL rules
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | DET -7 (51.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Steelers: The Pittsburgh defense is primed to go another week without star pass rusher T.J. Watt as he recovers from surgery to repair a partially collapsed lung — and that’s not the only impactful injury in the front seven. Nick Herbig, who played 26 defensive snaps against the Dolphins, injured his hamstring and is questionable. But the Steelers should get a boost to their run defense with rookie DT Derrick Harmon (knee) returning after missing the past three games. “There’s a theme with these last couple of games and stopping the run,” DT Cameron Heyward said. “And when we do that, we win the game.” — Brooke Pryor
What we’re hearing on the Lions: The emergence of RB Jahmyr Gibbs has also reduced the role of backfield mate David Montgomery, but coach Dan Campbell would like to get Montgomery more touches to strengthen the ground attack during this final stretch. Montgomery had just seven carries for 32 yards last week, but Campbell said the veteran back has handled the situation like a “pro” so far. “It’s something I think about a lot is how do we get them all involved,” Campbell said. “He’s one of those, when they’re all involved, we’re just better. We’re a better offense.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers is averaging 5.6 air yards per attempt, which is the fewest in the NFL among 32 qualified QBs and on pace to be his fewest in a season as a full-time starter. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Steelers will record fewer yards after catch than they have for any game this season (so, under 87). Pittsburgh relies heavily on YAC for its offense — 64% of its passing yards come via YAC, most in the league — but the Lions are excellent at limiting those opportunities. Detroit allows just 4.5 YAC per reception (second lowest in the league) and 3.9 expected YAC per reception (third lowest), per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: This game has massive playoff implications for both teams. The Steelers have a 62% chance to make the playoffs, which would increase to 80% with a win and decrease to 53% with a loss, according to ESPN Analytics. The Lions currently have a 36% chance, which would increase to 47% with a win and decrease to 16% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
2:08
J.J. Watt provides updates on T.J. Watt post-surgery
J.J. Watt joins “The Pat McAfee Show” and provides updates on his brother T.J. after his surgery.
Fantasy nugget: Lions WR Jameson Williams has become one of the hottest receivers in fantasy. He has seen at least nine targets in three consecutive games and has topped 26.0 fantasy points in two of them. His rapport with QB Jared Goff is undeniable. Williams also needs just 64 receiving yards to reach 1,000 yards for the second straight season. Pittsburgh’s defense gives up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 12-0 outright and 11-1 ATS in their past 12 games following a loss. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 30, Steelers 23
Moody’s pick: Lions 34, Steelers 28
Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Steelers 20
FPI prediction: DET, 67.1% (by an average of 6.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rodgers, Steelers beat Dolphins with help of ‘castoffs’ … Lions still confident as playoff hopes take a hit … Roethlisberger: Tomlin has earned right to move on from Steelers or stay … Untold stories of Lions QB Goff
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | HOU -14.5 (37.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Raiders: Whether QB Geno Smith (shoulder) or Kenny Pickett starts Sunday, it won’t make much of a difference because of the team’s struggles on the offensive line. Las Vegas has allowed at least four sacks in nine games this season. “[The Texans] have playmakers at all their spots, particularly [Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter] jump out,” coach Pete Carroll said. “… We’ve got to make sure that we’re doing a good job of keeping them from owning the game.” — Ryan McFadden
What we’re hearing on the Texans: The Raiders rank last in points per game (14), and Houston has the NFL’s No. 1 defense. The Texans are coming off a game in which they allowed 20 points to the Cardinals, and coach DeMeco Ryans said, “That game was not up to our standard.” So expect Houston to try to shut out Las Vegas. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: Sixty-five percent of Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty‘s rushing yards have come after contact, which is the highest rate in the NFL (among 70 players with 50-plus rushes this season). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Anderson will record multiple sacks. My player-level sacks model gives Anderson a 22% chance to record at least 2.0 sacks this week, the highest of any player by a healthy margin. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Texans have a 95% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. With a win, those odds jump to 97% (independent of other outcomes). They had just an 11% chance of making the playoffs in Week 9. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Texans’ defense has an opportunity to deliver a matchup-winning performance. Houston has allowed the fewest total yards (269.2) and points per game (16.3) this season, while the Raiders’ offensive line has allowed the most sacks (54) in the league. This matters because the Texans are double-digit favorites, meaning Las Vegas will likely be playing from behind. Houston should have success regardless of who is under center for the Raiders. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Texans 34, Raiders 10
Moody’s pick: Texans 30, Raiders 10
Walder’s pick: Texans 26, Raiders 10
FPI prediction: HOU, 80.3% (by an average of 13.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: QB Smith on Raiders future: ‘I’m expecting to win a lot of games here’ … Texans’ offense seems to have found stride with QB Stroud back
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | BAL -3 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Patriots: When the Patriots gathered for their initial team meeting of the week, coach Mike Vrabel told them to expect to see running plays from the Ravens similar to the rushes they faced last week against the Bills. The Patriots’ run defense had trouble controlling the line of scrimmage, staying in assigned gaps and building a wall, with Vrabel saying the Ravens will likely want to see “where we’re at with them.” It doesn’t help the team’s cause that DT Milton Williams (ankle) remains on injured reserve, and LB Robert Spillane (foot/ankle) has been slowed by an injury that kept him sidelined last week and held out of practice this week. — Mike Reiss
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: One of the biggest issues for QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense has been the lack of production inside the 20-yard line. Baltimore’s red zone offense ranks 31st, converting touchdowns only 44% of the time. But the Ravens are facing a Patriots defense that ranks dead last in the red zone (75%). “We have to play our best football,” center Tyler Linderbaum said. “Talent, certainly, is not an issue. We have all the playmakers in the world. It comes down to just execution.” — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Patriots QB Drake Maye leads the NFL in QBR (79.2), completion percentage (70.2%) and YPA (9.2) on the road. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Patriots edge K’Lavon Chaisson will record a sack. He has 6.5 on the season but hasn’t taken down a QB in over a month. As a team, the Ravens have taken sacks on 9.2% of dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Patriots can clinch a playoff berth with a win, Texans loss or Colts loss. The Ravens have a 38% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics, which rises to 48% with win and drops to 24% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Even though Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson is in a committee with Rhamondre Stevenson, Henderson belongs in lineups. He has scored at least 28 fantasy points in three of his past five games. Over the past three games, the Ravens’ defensive front ranks 26th in run stop win rate, while the Patriots’ offensive line ranks eighth in run block win rate. Henderson should shine. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody Betting nugget: The Ravens are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more. — ESPN Research Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 23 Matchup must-reads: Can the Patriots clinch a playoff berth this week? … ‘Go out with a bang’: Ravens want to avoid worst home record in team history Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | SF -6 (46.5 O/U) What we’re hearing on the 49ers: There’s an alternate reality in which QB Philip Rivers‘ comeback happened three years ago and he returned as a member of the 49ers. When injuries hit the Niners’ QB room in 2022, the team and Rivers discussed his return enough to the point he actually sat in on some videoconferences. Ultimately, Brock Purdy proved ready for the job, but now Rivers and the Colts are the only thing standing between San Francisco and a playoff berth. Coach Kyle Shanahan said he actually found himself on a video call with Rivers last week as Rivers caught up with Niners defensive assistant Gus Bradley. “I was telling him how cool it would be [to return], and then about 10 seconds into it I realized that we were playing against him in 10 days,” Shanahan said, laughing. “So, I tried to kind of sway him away from that and tell him how dumb it would be. It didn’t work.” — Nick Wagoner What we’re hearing on the Colts: Can the Colts finally generate more offense? Indianapolis produced its four lowest yardage marks of the season in its past four games and needs to find ways to become more productive. In those games, the Colts have averaged 17.8 points. All of this comes after the Colts began the season with the NFL’s hottest offense, leading the league in scoring and yards per game through 10 weeks. For this trajectory to change, the Colts will have to get more out of Rivers, who came out of retirement to relieve injured Daniel Jones (Achilles). Rivers threw for 120 passing yards last week. — Stephen Holder Stat to know: The Colts have gone three straight games scoring fewer than 20 points. They haven’t done so in four or more consecutive games since a streak of six straight in 2017. — ESPN Research Bold prediction: 49ers LB Tatum Bethune will record the most tackles of any player in Week 16. The Colts were the most run-heavy team in the league last week relative to expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and Bethune has a 29% tackle rate against the run — highest among all LBs with at least 250 defensive snaps. — Walder What’s at stake: The 49ers can clinch the playoffs with a win or a Lions loss. The Colts currently hold a 12% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics (improves to 22% with a win and falls to 6% with a loss). See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research Fantasy nugget: 49ers WR Jauan Jennings should prosper thanks to his elite red zone usage and a favorable matchup. He has scored at least 13 fantasy points in five of his past six games, finding the end zone six times. Jennings also saw at least five targets in each of those games. The Colts’ defense has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season. Read more. — ESPN Research Maldonado’s pick: 49ers 22, Colts 21 Matchup must-reads: 49ers hope to keep offense rolling down tough stretch … Colts QB Richardson cleared to practice
Moody’s pick: Patriots 24, Ravens 21
Walder’s pick: Patriots 23, Ravens 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 60.4% (by an average of 3.9 points)
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Colts 24
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Colts 16
FPI prediction: SF, 61.2% (by an average of 4.3 points)
Midway through college and high school baseball seasons, the 2026 MLB draft picture is starting to come into focus.
We’re getting to the part of the spring when players are falling into consensus tiers for evaluators, and when I see MLB crosscheckers and scouting directors, they ask me when my first mock is coming out. This year’s class has a clear No. 1 player followed by a pretty clear next-best prospect and then the potential shuffling picks up at No. 3, with several college players and a few standout prep prospects all in the mix to go in the top 10 picks.
The players below were ranked using the FV (future value) system that I applied for pro prospects. Here are my preseason MLB prospect rankings to see where these players would rank if they turned pro now, though the grades will change (and generally improve as we gain more information and certainty) throughout the spring.
We’ve all waited long enough, so it’s time for a fresh rankings update and a mini-mock draft of the first 13 picks.
Jump to: Mini-mock | Draft rankings
Mini-mock draft: Projecting the first 13 picks
1. Chicago White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
This already seems to be down to Cholowsky and Grady Emerson. I think Cholowsky has a notable lead, but it isn’t a slam dunk just yet.
Since almost everyone in baseball has the same report and outlook for Cholowsky, this pick then comes down to exactly what you think Emerson’s potential is and if he’s a quick mover. Some evaluators think Emerson has higher upside and if you think he’ll also move quickly (Konnor Griffin debuted as a 19-year-old, Jackson Holliday at age 20, Kevin McGonigle at 21) then he could also look like a superior prospect in the minors within a year or so.
If he’s both things and he comes at some bonus savings vs. Cholowsky, you can logically justify picking Emerson. Some teams I’ve spoken with see this decision as close enough to really dig in and the White Sox might be one of those teams.
We’ll learn a lot more in the coming weeks; I heard a big White Sox scouting contingent, including GM Chris Getz, was in to see Emerson this week.
2. Tampa Bay Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (Texas)
This is a pretty common connection, especially in light of the Rays pick history and the industry’s read of the first pick. Some rival clubs picking in this area think the Rays will seriously consider Vahn Lackey and Jackson Flora if they get a sizable bonus savings, with those two prospects seen as the other players within the top group before things really open up.
Given the variability in evaluating high school players and how the Rays covet MLB-ready prospects, I buy the Flora/Lackey buzz, both as earnest interest and possible negotiating leverage with Emerson. I can’t imagine Cholowsky gets past this pick if he doesn’t go No. 1.
3. Minnesota Twins: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
There’s still a bit of an empirical bias against pitchers at the top of the draft if talent seems to be similar between two players. Lackey seems to have a slight edge over Flora for most evaluators, due in large part to this, but both are common third- and fourth-ranked players on boards.
I think the Twins would take Emerson if he’s available here, I think Flora would also get a long look, and there’s some buzz Chris Hacopian would be an option here on a deal.
4. San Francisco Giants: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
The Giants would really like to get a shot at Emerson and I think they’d be happy to get Lackey or Flora, but they’re also taking a very long look at Jacob Lombard, younger brother of Yankees’ top prospect George Lombard Jr.
Lombard is polarizing in a very similar way to Ethan Holliday last year — both have notable pro fathers and brothers, big power and struggled during the summer showcase circuit — and accordingly, some teams have Lombard in the back half of the first round while others think he’s a clear fit in the top 10 or even top five. It’s safe to project that the Giants take the last of the top tier of four here, but there’s a real chance for something more intriguing.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep HS (Florida)
This is perceived to be one of those landing spots for Lombard, along with the first spot for another toolsy prep hitter in Eric Booth Jr.
I don’t know if it’s perception or reality but after Konnor Griffin’s swing adjustment went so well so quickly, teams think the Pirates will take another prep hitter with big upside and a swing/contact question. I think this is the floor for Lackey or Flora if there’s a deal cut in the top four.
6. Kansas City Royals: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
Things start to open up here, as the top tier of four is almost certainly selected by now and the Royals have an extra pick at No. 30, so they could opt for an underslot deal here to spend more later. The Royals are always trying to compete and it wouldn’t surprise me if they went with a potential quick-mover on a deal at this pick to then set up more typical high school picks down the board.
Peterson has been rising of late, but his sweet spot might be a few picks after this. I think this is also the first pick in which you could see a high school pitcher (Gio Rojas or Logan Schmidt) and that would also be on a cut-rate deal.
7. Baltimore Orioles: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
Lebron had stealth 1-1 buzz entering the spring because of his big tools, but it was stealth because of contact questions; he’s hitting .230 in SEC play and .270 on the season.
He fits Baltimore’s style (multiple sources said he was a “great fit” at this pick as their first response to this mock) and probably shouldn’t last much beyond here or the next couple of picks. Booth also fits Baltimore’s style if Lebron goes earlier.
8. Athletics: Eric Booth Jr., CF, Oak Grove HS (Mississippi)
Booth has had a ton of heat all spring as he has added significant strength (one scouting director compared his physique to that of an SEC running back) with plus bat speed and raw power along with plus-plus foot speed.
I see Booth’s floor is No. 14 to Miami, but I think he’ll go a good bit earlier than that. This is about the juncture of the draft where the next cut of college hitters start to fit: Hacopian, Ryder Helfrick, A.J. Gracia and Drew Burress.
9. Atlanta Braves: Chris Hacopian, SS, Texas A&M
Hacopian has one of the best hit/power/position combinations in the draft class, though he’s probably a third baseman. He probably lands somewhere in the top 10 with Booth and Burress (Atlanta tried to sign him out of high school) both fitting here, too, and I think there’s a shot that a prep pitcher (again, Rojas and Schmidt) also could be a cut-rate option.
10. Colorado Rockies: Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech
Burress should land somewhere around picks eight to 13. Some teams have soured a bit this spring as a harsher scouting report would have Burress moving to right field with 20-homer upside at 5-foot-9 while the rosier view would point out that he has hit 51 career home runs for the Yellow Jackets and never batted below .333 in any of his three seasons. The new Rockies regime is a little hard to read, but the belief is the team will go with an accomplished college player so Peterson also makes sense.
11. Washington Nationals Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
Helfrick has dramatically improved his contact rates, sliding in just behind Lackey as the second catcher expected to go in the top half of the first round.
The Nats also have a new regime entering its first draft, but the decision-makers largely came from Boston, so rival teams are expecting Washington to follow what has worked for the Red Sox in recent drafts. The bat speed of Booth and intriguing two-way potential of Jared Grindlinger could also fit that approach.
12. Los Angeles Angels: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
It’s hard to not just give the Angels a quick-moving college player given their run of pushing players quickly to the majors. Depending on how he looks in a return from a February ribcage injury, Flukey could go in the middle of the top 10 or a bit lower than this, but he is a polished potential midrotation arm regardless. Gracia, Eric Becker, Chris Rembert and rising RHP Logan Reddemann could also fit.
13. St. Louis Cardinals: Jared Grindlinger, RF/LHP, Huntington Beach HS (California)
I’ll cut things off at this pick as the group of names in contention is ballooning. Grindlinger just turned 17 and is within a few weeks of being the youngest early-round prospect in the draft (just behind Rocco Maniscalco). He’s a real first-round caliber outfielder with plus bat-to-ball ability and above-average power/speed potential, along with a pitching evaluation somewhere in the top two rounds. There is still some disagreement on this report and where he goes as Grindlinger was only seriously scouted starting this spring after he reclassified late in the process.
By drafting him, a team would basically get two elite prospects in one and probably would let him do both (with a lean toward hitting) for a couple of seasons to see how things break. That appealing risk profile means I don’t think he gets much past this pick even with the abbreviated eval period. The Cards are also tied to prep OF Trevor Condon, who is also rising up boards as he had been red-hot the last few weeks.
Top 85 MLB draft prospects
60 FV
1. Roch Cholowsky (21.3), SS, UCLA
Cholowsky is still the top prospect in the draft for the vast majority of teams. He’s an above-average hitter for average and power with a good approach and an above-average glove at shortstop who has been productive for three college seasons (1.081 OPS and 44 homers in 154 career games) after getting multimillion dollar interest out of high school in the loaded 2023 draft class.
If you were going to pick nits (scouts are as good at this as anyone), he’s not the long, lean type of athlete you’d prefer and you could argue he has a bunch of above-average to plus tools, but no plus-plus, standout ability. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are the names that come up most often as comparable players. The downside for Cholowsky is basically a really solid 2-3 win player who never has that breakthrough season, but there’s legit 5-win upside, which would make him a franchise player. It’s really hard to pass on that high of a floor with perennial All-Star upside.
You don’t see this kind of prospect every year, so the top two players in this draft make it a great year to be picking really high. That said, the depth beyond that is lacking a bit, so it’s a tough break if you’re picking later in the top 10.
55 FV Tier
2. Grady Emerson (18.4), SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (TX), Texas commit
Emerson has been the top prep prospect in this draft class basically since anyone has been paying attention. The track record of that kind of prospect, especially when it’s a left-handed hitting shortstop, is quite good. Scouts have Emerson as an above-average to plus hitter with above-average to plus power, along with a solid approach and feel to get to power in games. At this age and as a shortstop, that puts him right on the borderline of future star, depending on what side of that standard report you land.
He isn’t the size of Corey Seager (Emerson is listed at 6-2, 180 pounds), but there are some evaluators who think Emerson’s upside could be a player of similar value. With how quickly polished elite high school position players can move through the minors (Griffin, Holliday, McGonigle are the three I noted above in the mock), you wouldn’t be doing your job as a scout if you didn’t take a long look at putting Emerson at the top spot on your list; you can certainly imagine how that could be a common opinion a year from now.
50 FV Tier
3. Vahn Lackey (21.0), C, Georgia Tech
This is the tier that runs roughly 40 through 120 on a minor league prospect top 100 ranking, for reference. Lackey has been a revelation this year, posting a 1.274 OPS heading into this weekend’s series with tools to match: an above-average runner with a plus arm who will stick behind the plate and has above-average power, pitch selection and bat control as a hitter.
There’s not a 70-grade tool, he’s new to being this elite, and catchers often take non-linear developmental roads, but Lackey is very easy to pick for any team no matter their preference in prospect style.
4. Jackson Flora (21.1), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Flora was a common pick-to-click this spring because of his combination of lively stuff, clean arm action and a loose, projectable frame. He made the leap this spring with improved strike quality while still sitting 94-98 and hitting 100 mph, with an above-average changeup, and slider that’s almost a sweeper at 83-87 mph.
He could be in a big league rotation pretty quickly and every team is looking for rotation depth; Flora is also a fit for almost every team.
5. Justin Lebron (21.7), SS, Alabama
Lebron is hard to rank because he still has above-average power, plus speed and an above-average glove at shortstop (a rare combination in college) but his in-zone miss rate and overall feel to hit have continued to be below average.
Some teams look more for traits than polish in position players because they think they can teach/mold a swing and approach more than others; Lebron fits well with a team like that.
6. Chris Hacopian (21.9), SS, Texas A&M
Hacopian has a track record of strong contact and strong production with plus raw power. The hesitations are that he’s more of a third baseman than shortstop, he’s not an elite athlete, he’s older than the other college position players in this area of the draft (which empirically does matter), and his flatter swing plane means his power production doesn’t match his exit velos right now. Translation: There’s a pretty high floor but a more limited upside.
45+ FV Tier
7. Eric Booth Jr. (18.0), CF, Oak Grove HS (MS), Vanderbilt commit
8. Drew Burress (21.6), CF, Georgia Tech
9. Liam Peterson (21.1), RHP, Florida
10. Cameron Flukey (21.2), RHP, Coastal Carolina
Booth has been steadily rising all spring, with plus bat speed/raw power and plus-plus foot speed. There are two concerns: He’ll need to tweak his setup/hand move a bit (seems doable to me) and he’s patient to the point that if he’s getting pitched around (which has happened a good bit), scouts need to go back for a second day to write a report. In the game I saw him this spring, he had three walks and a hit by pitch in a five-inning run-rule game. Luckily, I got to watch him hit off of a machine in the cage for a few rounds and he fouled off a few pitches in game, but I would’ve liked to have seen more that day. Some teams see the premium tools and salivate at what player development could do, while others see risk of the unknown they’d rather avoid at a premium pick.
The next three players are much more consensus talents and reports across all 30 teams. Peterson is 6-5, has an above-average fastball/slider combo headlining a four-pitch mix, projects as a starter and has been famous to scouts for about five years. Burress has been super productive, but his swing/contact rate regressed a bit early this year, his 5-9 stature limits his power upside and he is on the center/right-field spectrum for some. Flukey is a steady starter with a plus fastball and among the best starter traits in the draft. He also has two fringy breaking balls to the eye that play up a bit due to his other abilities, and his solid changeup isn’t used much. He is expected to return from a rib cage injury next week.
45 FV Tier
There’s not a lot of quality depth to the prep hitter demographic so Lowrance and Comeau are common picks to fill that vacancy in the 20s and 30s behind the Grindlinger/Condon/Lombard/Booth group. There’s a lot of conversation about Grindlinger, Condon and Lombard as opinions on them vary widely, as mentioned in the mock draft above.
Lombard’s summer contact rate trips up some models to where he doesn’t project as a premium pick. Grindlinger simply hasn’t been scouted anywhere near as much as the others in this range and has a two-way evaluation, so teams just haven’t reached internal consensus, and Condon is a lower-variance type that teams just tend to value differently. Some whisper the name McGonigle when watching Condon.
Reddemann has been red-hot of late and seems to be the player currently filling the college pitching vacancy behind the Flora/Peterson/Flukey group with Dietz also rising (but with an injury history). Waechter and Hirschkorn seem to be the prep arms rising a bit from the jumbled group in the 30-50 area. The next tier of prep arms will often get pushed into the later rounds as overpays, but Waechter and Hirschkorn feel like players that a team will have in mind for their second pick when making an underslot first pick. The college hitter class is quite jumbled with medium-upside types that are performing well; teams aren’t thrilled at the lack of upside after pick 15 or so with all of the position players.
40+ FV Tier
Bumila is 6-8 and has been regularly up to 100 mph this spring with interesting shapes delivered from a lower slot, but there are still questions about secondaries and quality of strikes. He has thrown only a handful of times this spring but could still rise from here. Duncan is a more polished prep lefty and has also been rising of late, getting into the mid-90s and mixing in a plus changeup.
I must mention that yes, Landon is the son of Hall of Famer Jim Thome. I’ve written about Contreras this spring and will continue to because he’s polarizing with scouts in part because he’s such a fascinating scouting and development theoretical question; I’ll go into more detail on this soon. Blair is another intriguing talent who throws from a distinctive arm slot (almost sidearm) with distinctive shapes and elite control: 55⅓ innings, 38 hits, five walks, 71 strikeouts this spring. Williamson has one of the more pronounced bat wraps (coiling his arms around his head as he loads up to swing) but scouts think it’s fixable and love his potential everyday tools.
40 FV Tier
I cut it off here with the idea being this represents the full first two rounds plus comp rounds, which is 75 picks, plus a handful more to make up for the high school players I have ranked who won’t sign. This also feels around the area where you start getting lots of tough-to-sign high school players who all feel pretty similar in talent but some just aren’t being scouted anymore and opinions vary a lot from team to team.
I’m not sure what it means but somehow, there’s five LSU commits in my next 11 ranked high school players. One team gave me feedback on the last 10-15 players I have ranked and this team has two of them in the fifth round or later, then another team said I must leave them where they are because they’re both easily getting seven-figure bonuses. That’s how ranking high school players is, especially at this juncture of the spring, once you get out of the top 50 players or so.
Opinions are quite split on Maniscalco, originally a 2027 prospect who reclassified and is the youngest player in this ranking, narrowly ahead of Grindlinger. He wasn’t very good at the plate early in the spring when I and many others piled in for first looks; many teams buried him in the third round, where he’s likely not signable. Some teams are still considering him inside the top 30 picks, though, fueled by models that love young-for-the-class, switch-hitting shortstops.
It’s worth noting in this section that the automated ball-strike system (ABS) changes in the big leagues will affect the draft. Getting a raw receiver, framer, and blocker who has the athleticism to block pitches is totally fine at a higher pick. Having a plus arm is more important, but the release time and accuracy can be coached whereas arm strength cannot. So if a college catcher doesn’t call pitches and isn’t a polished defender but is an above-average athlete behind the plate and has a plus arm, teams aren’t that bothered about the finer points; some big league teams are calling pitches just like most colleges are. This generally helps Jackson, Tinney, and Brock (ranked 185th last year out of a junior college in this space), along with a sleeper name that’s below them, but rising: George Washington C Robbie Lavey.
Henry Nicholls hit a fine 68 before disciplined Bangladesh bowlers restricted New Zealand to 247-8 in the opening one-day international in Dhaka on Friday.
New Zealand, who won the toss and chose to bat in what is the first of a three-match ODI series, were tested early by left-arm seamer Shoriful Islam, drafted in at the last minute to replace Mustafizur Rahman due to knee discomfort.
Shoriful, who last played an ODI in December 2024, created an immediate impact, removing opener Nick Kelly for seven and conceding just nine runs in his first five overs, while also creating two further chances.
Nicholls then anchored the innings with a composed 68 off 83 balls, hitting nine fours for his 17th ODI half-century.
The 34-year-old stitched together useful partnerships with Will Young (30) and captain Tom Latham (14) to steady the innings after the early setback.
Young survived an early drop on one off Shoriful but fell to leg-spinner Rishad Hossain while attempting a reverse sweep, edging to slip.
Rishad struck again soon after, dismissing Nicholls with another failed reverse sweep to leave New Zealand under pressure.
Latham and Muhammad Abbas failed to build on the platform, but all-rounder Dean Foxcroft counter-attacked with a brisk 59 off 58 balls, featuring eight fours, to lift the visitors past 200.
He was eventually bowled by Nahid Rana attempting a yorker-length delivery.
Nathan Smith’s unbeaten 21 off 22 balls provided a late boost as New Zealand reached a competitive total.
Shoriful finished with 2-27, while Taskin Ahmed and Rishad Hossain claimed two wickets apiece for Bangladesh.
Sports
WWE star Kit Wilson expresses support for Cody Rhodes after Pat McAfee promo, no animosity after ‘toxic’ move
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LAS VEGAS – Cody Rhodes was running hot earlier this month after Pat McAfee was inserted into his WrestleMania 42 feud with Randy Orton just days before their match was set to take place.
Kit Wilson was the punching bag after McAfee kicked Rhodes in the groin, ripped the pro wrestling business and said that Orton was going to save it. Wilson had just finished a match with The Miz against Damian Priest and R-Truth when Rhodes rushed the ring.
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Kit Wilson reads his journal during SmackDown at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise, Fla., on Feb. 20, 2026. (Craig Ambrosio/WWE/Getty Images)
Rhodes targeted Wilson with a Cross Rhodes and cut the scathing promo on McAfee.
Wilson told Fox News Digital that he didn’t know Rhodes was coming and that he would be targeted. However, he praised Rhodes’ message.
WWE CHAMP JADE CARGILL VERY HOPEFUL TO MEET ‘STONE COLD’ STEVE AUSTIN AT HALL OF FAME CEREMONY
Cody Rhodes stands in the ring during SmackDown at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., on April 10, 2026. (Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
“I was just trying to look out for my mentor, The Miz. I was just trying to do the right thing by him. Yeah, I had no idea it was coming,” Wilson said. “It was interesting because I think Cody was speaking from the heart there and what he had to say was quite informational and important in the current zeitgeist of the world.”
Wilson said that he did think Rhodes’ decision to take his anger out on him was “toxic” but he had no ill will toward “The American Nightmare.”
“So yeah, I think he was taking his anger out on me,” Wilson continued. “I don’t appreciate it. I do think it was toxic. But I see the side of him that had a lot of things to say. In my own way, I think I’ve forgiven him.”
Kit Wilson makes his entrance during SmackDown at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., on Jan. 2, 2026. (Craig Melvin/WWE)
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Rhodes and Orton will battle for the Undisputed WWE Championship on Night 1 of WrestleMania 42. McAfee is sure to be at ringside in Orton’s corner, much to Rhodes and fans’ chagrin.
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