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Our guide to every Week 16 NFL game: Matchup previews, predictions and what’s at stake
The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2025 season should bring some intriguing matchups with playoff hopes and dreams on the line. The Lions want to grab a much-needed win over the Steelers, the Eagles have the chance to keep the Cowboys out of the postseason with a win Saturday, and the Buccaneers and Panthers are fighting for a chance to take a lead in the NFC South.
We have you covered with everything you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and ESPN Research provides a key stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game.
Let’s get into the Week 16 slate, which culminates with the 49ers playing the Colts on “Monday Night Football” on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
PHI-WSH | GB-CHI | LAC-DAL
BUF-CLE | KC-TEN | CIN-MIA
TB-CAR | MIN-NYG | NYJ-NO
JAX-DEN | ATL-ARI | PIT-DET
LV-HOU | NE-BAL | SF-IND
Thursday: LAR-SEA
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET | Fox | PHI -7 (44.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Eagles: Coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense has turned it up since Philadelphia’s Week 9 bye, ranking first in opponent completion percentage (51.5%), second in opponent passer rating (67.2) and third in points allowed per game (14.3). Philadelphia limited Las Vegas to 75 total yards last week, marking the fewest yards allowed by a team since 2023. Fangio gave the offense a good bit of the credit in the shutout, noting that it moved the ball and got the run game going. “Anytime you have a game like that, usually the whole team contributes,” he said. Clock-draining drives on offense coupled with this dominant defense is a winning formula. — Tim McManus
What we’re hearing on the Commanders: If Washington wants to upset the Eagles, it must start with its run game. Washington started the season strong in this area, ranking first in rushing yards after five weeks — partly because of its QB runs. The Commanders have rushed for at least 145 yards in four of their past six games — a result of playing in closer matchups, but also due to strong blocking from the tight ends and offensive line. Rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt is coming off a 96-yard game in which half his yards came after first contact. Chris Rodriguez Jr. will be used for his power. Both need to improve in the passing game, but coach Dan Quinn said, “I like the combination of the two. They’re different in size, but both of them have an aggressive style and so they can break tackles.” — John Keim
Stat to know: After recording only three receiving touchdowns through the first nine games of the season, Eagles receiver A.J. Brown has four over his the past four games. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell will not allow a single reception. Mitchell is red hot in terms of his coverage numbers. Since Week 11, he has allowed 0.2 yards per coverage snap, best among all outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps in that span. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win or a Cowboys loss. Philadelphia could be the first repeat champion of the NFC East in 20 seasons. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Eagles | Commanders
Fantasy nugget: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert and Brown all belong in lineups. Washington’s defense has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to QBs, the sixth most to RBs, the ninth most to WRs and the fifth most to TEs. Hurts has averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game against Washington in his career. View that as his floor, not his ceiling. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 4-1 ATS (against the spread) in the past five meetings (overs: 4-1). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 21, Commanders 17
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 10
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 67.6% (by an average of 6.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Hurts bounces back as Eagles praise QB’s resolve … Commanders QB Daniels ‘super frustrated’ by 2025 season … Commanders find meaning in win at Giants
Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Fox | GB -1.5 (46.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Packers: There’s no downplaying the impact Micah Parsons had after he arrived in Green Bay via trade before the start of the season. But now that the Packers have lost him to a season-ending knee injury, at least they can go back to an entire offseason of planning before they even knew getting Parsons was a possibility. That’s where defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley comes in. Not only does he have plenty of playcalls that didn’t include Parsons, but he has proven to be adept at rallying players. “A week ago, we’re in here after we beat the Bears, and we’re all walking in here all upbeat and ready to roll,” Hafley said. “I said, ‘Shame on you if you walk in here any different today.’ That’s not who we are. That’s our job as leaders and coaches, to make sure that we don’t do that. We’ve got really good players. We’ve played good defense, and we’re going to continue to play good defense.” — Rob Demovsky
What we’re hearing on the Bears: QB Caleb Williams played arguably his best game of the season against the Browns, as he surpassed his touchdown total from his rookie season (20) and got the Bears’ offense off to its fastest start in weeks. His mechanics, accuracy (60.7% completion rate) and anticipation of coverages stood out to coach Ben Johnson as a sign of comfort and command. A repeat of last week’s performance from Williams would go a long way in helping the Bears lock up a postseason bid. “If I play how I played this past game or if I played better than that, we’ve got a real shot to do whatever we want in this league,” Williams said. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Williams needs 689 passing yards to break the Bears’ single-season record (Erik Kramer had 3,838 passing yards in 1995). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Packers S Xavier McKinney will record an interception. The Packers safety has a 33% hawk percentage — the rate of targets against him on which he recorded either a pass defensed or an interception — which is third highest among safeties with at least 250 coverage snaps. — Walder
What’s at stake: The winner of this game will clinch a playoff berth if the Lions lose. But neither team can claim the NFC North this week. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:42
Do Packers have an excuse if they fail to reach SB? Stephen A. weighs in
Stephen A. Smith discusses whether the Packers’ injuries give the team an excuse if they don’t win the Super Bowl.
Fantasy nugget: Packers WR Jayden Reed has produced 108 scrimmage yards off 10 targets since returning from injury two weeks ago. He should remain a key playmaker in the offense, especially with Christian Watson (chest) questionable. Reed faces a Bears defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bears 20, Packers 10
Moody’s pick: Bears 24, Packers 23
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Bears 24
FPI prediction: GB, 57.7% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: When in 2026 might Packers’ Parsons return from ACL tear?
1 p.m. ET | Fox | DAL -2.5 (49.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chargers: QB Justin Herbert has thrown the third-most interceptions in the NFL this season (12) and the second most of his career. This comes a season after Herbert threw the fewest interceptions in the league and of his career (three). But he said the uptick in turnovers won’t change his play style. “Just because I’ve thrown one before doesn’t mean that I’m going to play scared or I can’t throw another one,” Herbert said. — Kris Rhim
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: By the time the Cowboys kick off against the Chargers, they will likely know whether they have been eliminated from the playoffs (if the Eagles beat the Commanders on Saturday). But coach Brian Schottenheimer’s message to the players will not change. “All about winning,” he said. “It’s always going to be all about winning whether we’re sitting at undefeated or wherever we are today. It’s always going to be about winning because again our mantra and central theme of the program is compete every day.” — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is 69 passing yards shy of his fourth 4,000-yard season. That would tie Tony Romo for the most in franchise history. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chargers CB Cam Hart will surrender at least 80 yards in coverage. Hart’s coverage numbers are poor this season, as he has allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap, fourth most among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. Against Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, he could struggle. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a loss by either the Texans or Colts. They would be eliminated from AFC West title contention with a loss and a Broncos win. The Cowboys are eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or an Eagles win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Herbert hasn’t scored 20 or more fantasy points since Week 8. However, this matchup sets up as a clear bounce-back opportunity. Dallas’ defense has allowed the most fantasy points per game to QBs and to WRs. The Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy finished with a season-high 23.5 points against them last week. Herbert and WR Ladd McConkey could thrive. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 9-2 in the Cowboys’ past 11 games, including three straight overs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chargers 24, Cowboys 21
Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Cowboys 20
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 24, Chargers 20
FPI prediction: LAC, 51.4% (by an average of 0.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chargers’ surging defense looks capable of carrying team … What is going on with Diggs and the Cowboys?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | BUF -10.5 (41.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bills: QB Josh Allen, the reigning MVP, has firmly planted himself back in the awards conversation, but his focus is elsewhere. “I’m just trying to do my job, just trying to find a way to get in the playoffs here,” Allen said. The 29-year-old has a chance to make history Sunday. With just one more touchdown, Allen will become the youngest and fastest NFL player to reach 300 scores. — Alaina Getzenberg
What we’re hearing on the Browns: DE Myles Garrett is one sack away from tying the NFL’s single-season sack record shared by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt, and he’s 1.5 sacks away from breaking it. Surpassing 22.5 sacks through 15 games played would give Garrett the distinction of achieving the feat in fewer games than it took Strahan in 2001 (16) and in just as many as it took Watt in 2021. “That’s why I got to get back on the field,” said CB Denzel Ward, who missed last week’s game and is currently questionable because of a calf injury. “I told him don’t break the record without me out there. I got to be out there when he breaks the record. … I’m hoping he gets to [break the record] this week and like I said, it’s not a matter if, but when he gets that record. And just the credit to him and the work that he’s put in and the entire defense. You can’t do it alone.” — Daniel Oyefusi
Stat to know: Allen has had three passing touchdowns and no interceptions in each of his past two games. No Bills quarterback has ever had three straight games with three passing touchdowns. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Garrett won’t record a sack against Allen. I think Garrett will have to wait another week to break the record. Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins currently ranks second in pass block win rate at 95.3%. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Bills can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win and either a Texans or Colts loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
0:50
Is Quinshon Judkins a good fantasy play vs. Bills?
Field Yates explains why Quinshon Judkins is outside his top 20 for fantasy running backs in Week 16.
Fantasy nugget: The Browns’ Harold Fannin Jr. is currently the TE8 in ESPN leagues. He has been superb and has recorded at least 11 fantasy points in three consecutive games, including one with 25.4 points. Over that span, Fannin has stockpiled 30 total targets. The only TE with more targets than him this season is Trey McBride. The Bills’ defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position, but don’t let that deter you from starting Fannin given his elite target volume. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bills 34, Browns 10
Moody’s pick: Bills 24, Browns 13
Walder’s pick: Bills 31, Browns 10
FPI prediction: BUF, 80.4% (by an average of 12.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bills’ special teams playing key role in pursuit for playoffs … Optimistic QB Sanders believes nowhere to go but up for Browns … Tracking Garrett’s quest to break the single-season sack record
1 p.m. ET | CBS | KC -3 (37.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: Backup QB Gardner Minshew, a seven-year veteran, will be the team’s starter for the final three games after Patrick Mahomes tore two ligaments in his left knee last week. The stretch will serve as an audition for Minshew to remain with the Chiefs next season. After all, the Chiefs don’t have another QB under contract for 2026. “It’s an opportunity to step in and do my job,” Minshew said. “Being how there’s a lot of guys that have put a ton of work into this, I owe it to them. I owe it to this coaching staff, this team [and] this fan base to go out and do my best to give us the best chance to win.” — Nate Taylor
What we’re hearing on the Titans: The Titans are looking to close out their home schedule with two wins, starting with the Chiefs. “That’s the plan to win both of those at the crib and go into next year with a little home-game winning streak because that’s what our fans need to see,” QB Cam Ward said. Tennessee hasn’t won consecutive games at Nissan Stadium since December 2021, but with RB Tony Pollard having posted back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances, the Titans are molding into a physical, run-first team down the stretch. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Titans are 4-2 versus the Chiefs since Andy Reid became coach in 2013. Tennessee is one of four teams with a winning regular record versus Kansas City under Reid. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chiefs DT Chris Jones will record multiple sacks. Since Week 12, Jones has led all players in pass rush win rate regardless of alignment. His 31% PRWR in that span was well ahead of the next-best player (Micah Parsons at 26%). — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The Titans have a 19.1% chance at the No. 1 pick in April’s draft, per ESPN Analytics. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The entire Chiefs passing game takes a hit moving from Mahomes to Minshew, but there are reasons for optimism. Minshew is an aggressive passer who likes to lock in on his top target. Every team for which he has made at least nine starts in a season produced a 1,000-yard receiver. Minshew is also capable of attacking defenses vertically and underneath, which bodes well for WR Rashee Rice against a Titans secondary that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 8-17 ATS as underdogs since the start of last season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 20, Titans 16
Moody’s pick: Titans 17, Chiefs 14
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 20, Titans 17
FPI prediction: KC, 68.5% (by an average of 6.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chiefs QB Mahomes begins rehab after tearing knee ligaments, eyes Week 1 return … QB Ward wants Titans to involve him in HC search process … After playoff elimination, is Chiefs’ Super Bowl window closing?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | CIN -4.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: Cincinnati will have a chance to evaluate its roster in the final three games. That includes the six rookies who have seen the field this season. That could involve DE Shemar Stewart, who could potentially make his return from injured reserve to face Miami rookie QB Quinn Ewers. Coach Zac Taylor said, “I’m fired up when we do get him out there, whether it’s this week or not, for the future that he’s got here because he’s a guy that I’m really high on.” — Ben Baby
What we’re hearing on the Dolphins: Mike McDaniel made the biggest decision of his head coaching career, benching QB Tua Tagovailoa for Ewers this week. McDaniel said he needed more “conviction” at the QB position and that Ewers gives the team its best chance to win Sunday. In terms of what Miami’s game plan will look like against Cincinnati, offensive coordinator Frank Smith said Ewers has such a firm grasp of the playbook that the Dolphins don’t plan on changing much. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase has had a career-high six 100-yard receiving games this season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Dolphins will record at least 180 yards after catch. Not only does Miami rely on YAC for a high percentage (54%) of its passing yards, but the Bengals have allowed 533 yards after catch over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is the most by any team and 198 more than the next-highest team. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Bengals have 62% chance to land a top-10 pick in the draft, and the Dolphins have a 55% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
2:19
Stephen A. reacts to Tua Tagovailoa being benched by the Dolphins
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Dolphins had to bench Tua Tagovailoa.
Fantasy nugget: Dolphins TE Darren Waller has played in seven games and has scored at least 17 fantasy points in three. Last week, he finished with season highs in targets (eight), receptions (seven) and fantasy points (25.6). Now Waller faces a Bengals defense that has allowed the most targets, receptions and fantasy points per game to TEs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 0-3 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bengals 27, Dolphins 19
Moody’s pick: Bengals 26, Dolphins 24
Walder’s pick: Bengals 23, Dolphins 17
FPI prediction: CIN, 70.0% (by an average of 8.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: QB Burrow, on future with Bengals, says ‘crazy things happen’ … After benching, what’s next for QB Tagovailoa, Dolphins? … Why Dolphins coach McDaniel is more than a meme
1 p.m. ET | Fox | TB -3 (45.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Buccaneers: QB Baker Mayfield said there hasn’t been any finger pointing in the Bucs locker room despite the team losing its past two games to divisional opponents, and that it’s unfair to pin this on the defense. “The finger pointing [is] only happening if you have bad culture in the building. That’s not a problem we have to deal with. We met on Monday with the offense, and I told them what I said in the postgame press conference. I said, ‘It’s on me, it’s on this group. I expect us to be able to score more than 28 [points] in a situation like that and put the game out of reach.'” — Jenna Laine
What we’re hearing on the Panthers: “The ball is in our court. It’s just our job to make sure we put it in the rim,” WR Tetairoa McMillan said as the Panthers prepare for the first of two games against the Bucs over the final three weeks with the teams tied for the NFC South lead at 7-7. Carolina blew a chance Sunday to be in the driver’s seat with a last-second loss to New Orleans. Now it needs a sweep of Tampa Bay for a realistic shot, but having a chance is all the team cares about now. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Buccaneers’ defense is allowing 9.8 YAC per reception in its past six games (since Week 10), which is the second most in the NFL in that span behind only the Eagles (11.2). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving will average at least 6.0 yards per carry. The Bucs run inside zone 39% of the time, third most in the NFL, and the Panthers are allowing 5.5 yards per carry against inside zone — much higher than their average against other types of runs. — Walder
What’s at stake: The teams are tied atop the NFC South standings at 7-7. The Bucs hold the tiebreaker over Panthers based on win percentage in common games. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Buccaneers | Panthers
Fantasy nugget: Panthers QB Bryce Young has averaged an impressive 19.5 fantasy points per game since Week 11. The Bucs’ defense has been eviscerated by QBs since Week 12, allowing 1,098 passing yards and eight touchdowns, and the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins just posted 26.9 fantasy points. Young and his No. 1 WR McMillan could shine in this matchup. Jalen Coker is also in play in deeper formats, as he has seen at least four targets and scored 14 or more fantasy points in two straight games. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers are 6-0 ATS after a loss this season and have covered eight straight after a loss. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 28
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 23
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: TB, 56.6% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Examining Bucs-Panthers showdown for NFC South, playoff spot … Inconsistent Panthers failed to take control of NFC South
1 p.m. ET | Fox | MIN -3 (43.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Vikings: The Vikings’ late-season schedule has gifted QB J.J. McCarthy another chance to demonstrate statistical improvement. The Giants’ defense ranks No. 29 in the NFL in EPA per play. McCarthy is coming off the two best games of his career against the Commanders and Cowboys, whose defenses rank 30th and 32nd in EPA per play, respectively. A true measure of McCarthy’s progress could come if the Giants blitz as often as they usually do (41% of dropbacks). To date, McCarthy has the lowest QBR against the blitz (6.5). — Kevin Seifert
What we’re hearing on the Giants: Rookie QB Jaxson Dart expects to see things Sunday he has never seen before. “Just chaos. Chaos,” he said of what he sees from Minnesota coordinator Brian Flores’ defense on tape. The Vikings have blitzed at a league-high 48.9% rate this season. That provides quite the challenge for Dart and the Giants, who are looking for their first win since Week 6. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: McCarthy is coming off career highs in passing yards (250), yards per attempt (10.4) and Total QBR (86) in Week 15. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Vikings DT Jalen Redmond will record the highest run stop win rate of any defensive tackle in Week 16. Redmond ranks fifth (39.6%) in the category among interior defenders, and Giants guards have combined for the lowest run block win rate in the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. The Giants have a 74.8% chance of getting a top-five pick. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:38
Why a full offseason could be key for Jaxson Dart’s growth
Jason McCourty and Jeff Saturday explain how the upcoming offseason will be important for Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.
Fantasy nugget: Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. is in a good spot against a Vikings defense that has been stingy against opposing QBs, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game. However, Minnesota has given up the ninth-most rushing yards per game. Tracy is trending up at the perfect time for fantasy managers, finishing with 18 touches and a season-high 24.7 fantasy points in Week 15. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 8-1 in the Giants’ past nine games, including 4-0 in their past four home games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Vikings 17, Giants 13
Moody’s pick: Vikings 30, Giants 23
Walder’s pick: Giants 20, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: NYG, 55.3% (by an average of 2.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ Greenard (shoulder) to miss rest of season … Can Giants LB Carter follow up his ‘statement’ game?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | NO -5.5 (40.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Jets: Chris Harris will make his debut as the interim defensive coordinator, inheriting a unit that allowed 82 points in the past two games. Harris, a first-time playcaller, won’t make significant changes, just some tweaks — less blitzing, perhaps. “I’m a former player. … I understand how they think,” he said. “We want to play with grit, we want to play with toughness. Those are things we want to try and put on display.” — Rich Cimini
What we’re hearing on the Saints: WR Devaughn Vele (shoulder) and RB Devin Neal (hamstring) have already been ruled out, so QB Tyler Shough will have fewer playmakers. Expect to see RBs Evan Hull and Audric Estime share carries, while practice squad receiver Kevin Austin Jr. should see increased opportunities like he did last week. “I think Joel [Thomas] is one of the best running backs coaches in the league, so he prepares these guys as good as anyone I’ve ever been around and so these guys are dialed,” coach Kellen Moore said. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: The Jets’ three takeaways so far this season are the fewest of all time through a team’s first 14 games. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Jets guards John Simpson and Joe Tippmann will record pass block win rates over 96%. Saints players have combined for just a 5% pass rush win rate from the interior. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Jets have a 71% chance to land a top-five pick in draft, according to ESPN Analytics. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Saints’ defense has allowed more than 21 points just once in its past five games, generating six turnovers and averaging two sacks per contest. New Orleans now faces a Jets offense ranked near the bottom of the league in total yards and points scored with rookie Brady Cook likely under center. The Saints will also be at home in what is expected to be a low-scoring game. This is a great recipe for a high-upside streaming defense. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints have covered three straight games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Jets 17, Saints 14
Moody’s pick: Saints 24, Jets 17
Walder’s pick: Saints 26, Jets 16
FPI prediction: NO, 76.2% (by an average of 10.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jets in evaluation mode, will start rookie QB Cook again … With Neal, Vele out, who steps up for Saints? … Jets fire DC Wilks in one of their worst defensive seasons … Inside the Saints’ winning drive vs. Panthers
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | DEN -3 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: A good matchup will be the Jaguars’ red zone offense versus the Broncos’ red zone defense, which is the best in the NFL. Teams have scored touchdowns on only 38.5% of their red zone drives against the Broncos, the only team holding opponents to TDs on less than 45% of their drives. The Jaguars’ offense ranks 13th in the red zone, but during the team’s five-game win streak, it has scored TDs on 70.8% of its red zone drives. QB Trevor Lawrence has an NFL-high 10 passing TDs in the red zone during the streak. — Michael DiRocco
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: Over the past five games, Lawrence has thrown 12 touchdown passes and three interceptions, and he has nine touchdowns and no interceptions over the past four. With the Broncos in position to clinch the AFC West title for the first time since 2015, the league’s top pass rush is going to be important against Lawrence. The Broncos are the league’s best at quick pressures, while Lawrence has been one of the more difficult QBs to get quick pressure on this season (18th at 11.4% of his dropbacks), and he wasn’t sacked in three of the Jaguars’ past five games. Denver’s defense has 27 sacks in its seven home games. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Broncos RB RJ Harvey (six rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns this season) needs one receiving touchdown to become the fifth rookie in NFL history with five receiving touchdowns and five rushing scores. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Broncos QB Bo Nix won’t be sacked. He has been exceptional at sack avoidance this season with a 3.0% sack rate that is lowest among QBR-qualifying QBs, and he has a good offensive line in front of him. The Jaguars’ defense has just a 5.4% sack rate, fourth lowest in the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos need a win and a Chargers loss to clinch the AFC West. To clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Denver needs a win and losses by Chargers, Patriots and Bills this week. The Jaguars need a win and a loss by either the Texans or Colts to make the playoffs. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:09
Can Trevor Lawrence keep up his hot fantasy play vs. Broncos?
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why Trevor Lawrence is outside the top 10 of his fantasy quarterbacks for Week 16 despite a stellar game vs. the Jets.
Fantasy nugget: Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers has been in sync with Lawrence since arriving in Jacksonville. Over his past five games, he has averaged 7.0 targets and 14.9 fantasy points. The matchup against the Broncos’ secondary is tough, but Brian Thomas Jr. should draw ample defensive attention, which benefits Meyers. Denver has also allowed the seventh-most targets per game to WRs, giving Meyers a strong chance to rack up receptions. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their past five games, the longest active cover streak in the NFL and tied for the longest streak by any team this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Broncos 27, Jaguars 21
Moody’s pick: Broncos 24, Jaguars 20
Walder’s pick: Broncos 26, Jaguars 23
FPI prediction: DEN, 58.2% (by an average of 2.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Are Jaguars WRs and QB Lawrence finally on the same page? … Keys to Broncos QB Nix’s improved play
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ATL -3 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Falcons: Atlanta offensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich said he “slept on” Cardinals TE Trey McBride last season when the coach was with the Jets. He won’t do that again — in fact, Ulbrich said he believes McBride is the “engine” of the Arizona offense and someone who has a chance to be “one of the better tight ends that has played this game.” It could end up being a battle of TEs with the Falcons’ Kyle Pitts Sr. coming off a 166-yard, three-touchdown performance. — Marc Raimondi
What we’re hearing on the Cardinals: McBride is coming off his best game of the season — and that’s saying something — with 134 yards and two touchdowns on 12 catches. Last week, the Cardinals could hear the Texans’ frustration with trying to contain McBride and hope to draw the same kind of frustration out of the Falcons. Even though both teams have experience practicing against elite TEs, it might not matter in the long run. “Obviously after a while you kind of like look at the tablet and you’re like, ‘How are they trying to do it,’ and then the picture becomes a little bit more clear and you’re able to manipulate it a little bit. … Like I said, I have the easy part of just finding him and throwing him in the ball. It makes bad throws look like good catches,” QB Jacoby Brissett said. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Of the Falcons’ 48 defensive sacks — second most in the NFL — 15 have been by rookies. James Pearce Jr. leads the team with 8.0 sacks. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: McBride, coming off a 12-catch game, will record no more than five receptions. Only 14% of targets against the Falcons’ defense go to TEs, the lowest rate in the NFL. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Rams hold the Falcons’ first-round pick from their trade during the 2025 draft. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Brissett has been matchup proof in his nine starts this season, finishing as a top-12 fantasy QB in every one. He has averaged 42.7 pass attempts and 21.1 fantasy points over that stretch. The Cardinals’ defense ranks near the bottom of the league in total yards and points allowed, which has boosted Brissett’s fantasy outlook, and that should continue against a middle-of-the-road Falcons defense. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 1-6 outright and ATS as a betting favorite this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Cardinals 28, Falcons 24
Moody’s pick: Falcons 27, Cardinals 21
Walder’s pick: Falcons 23, Cardinals 22
FPI prediction: ARI, 53.2% (by an average of 1.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cousins’ last stand? Falcons veteran QB playing for another chance … Coach Gannon: Hard to practice tackling under current NFL rules
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | DET -7 (51.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Steelers: The Pittsburgh defense is primed to go another week without star pass rusher T.J. Watt as he recovers from surgery to repair a partially collapsed lung — and that’s not the only impactful injury in the front seven. Nick Herbig, who played 26 defensive snaps against the Dolphins, injured his hamstring and is questionable. But the Steelers should get a boost to their run defense with rookie DT Derrick Harmon (knee) returning after missing the past three games. “There’s a theme with these last couple of games and stopping the run,” DT Cameron Heyward said. “And when we do that, we win the game.” — Brooke Pryor
What we’re hearing on the Lions: The emergence of RB Jahmyr Gibbs has also reduced the role of backfield mate David Montgomery, but coach Dan Campbell would like to get Montgomery more touches to strengthen the ground attack during this final stretch. Montgomery had just seven carries for 32 yards last week, but Campbell said the veteran back has handled the situation like a “pro” so far. “It’s something I think about a lot is how do we get them all involved,” Campbell said. “He’s one of those, when they’re all involved, we’re just better. We’re a better offense.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers is averaging 5.6 air yards per attempt, which is the fewest in the NFL among 32 qualified QBs and on pace to be his fewest in a season as a full-time starter. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Steelers will record fewer yards after catch than they have for any game this season (so, under 87). Pittsburgh relies heavily on YAC for its offense — 64% of its passing yards come via YAC, most in the league — but the Lions are excellent at limiting those opportunities. Detroit allows just 4.5 YAC per reception (second lowest in the league) and 3.9 expected YAC per reception (third lowest), per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: This game has massive playoff implications for both teams. The Steelers have a 62% chance to make the playoffs, which would increase to 80% with a win and decrease to 53% with a loss, according to ESPN Analytics. The Lions currently have a 36% chance, which would increase to 47% with a win and decrease to 16% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
2:08
J.J. Watt provides updates on T.J. Watt post-surgery
J.J. Watt joins “The Pat McAfee Show” and provides updates on his brother T.J. after his surgery.
Fantasy nugget: Lions WR Jameson Williams has become one of the hottest receivers in fantasy. He has seen at least nine targets in three consecutive games and has topped 26.0 fantasy points in two of them. His rapport with QB Jared Goff is undeniable. Williams also needs just 64 receiving yards to reach 1,000 yards for the second straight season. Pittsburgh’s defense gives up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 12-0 outright and 11-1 ATS in their past 12 games following a loss. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 30, Steelers 23
Moody’s pick: Lions 34, Steelers 28
Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Steelers 20
FPI prediction: DET, 67.1% (by an average of 6.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rodgers, Steelers beat Dolphins with help of ‘castoffs’ … Lions still confident as playoff hopes take a hit … Roethlisberger: Tomlin has earned right to move on from Steelers or stay … Untold stories of Lions QB Goff
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | HOU -14.5 (37.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Raiders: Whether QB Geno Smith (shoulder) or Kenny Pickett starts Sunday, it won’t make much of a difference because of the team’s struggles on the offensive line. Las Vegas has allowed at least four sacks in nine games this season. “[The Texans] have playmakers at all their spots, particularly [Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter] jump out,” coach Pete Carroll said. “… We’ve got to make sure that we’re doing a good job of keeping them from owning the game.” — Ryan McFadden
What we’re hearing on the Texans: The Raiders rank last in points per game (14), and Houston has the NFL’s No. 1 defense. The Texans are coming off a game in which they allowed 20 points to the Cardinals, and coach DeMeco Ryans said, “That game was not up to our standard.” So expect Houston to try to shut out Las Vegas. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: Sixty-five percent of Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty‘s rushing yards have come after contact, which is the highest rate in the NFL (among 70 players with 50-plus rushes this season). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Anderson will record multiple sacks. My player-level sacks model gives Anderson a 22% chance to record at least 2.0 sacks this week, the highest of any player by a healthy margin. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Texans have a 95% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. With a win, those odds jump to 97% (independent of other outcomes). They had just an 11% chance of making the playoffs in Week 9. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Texans’ defense has an opportunity to deliver a matchup-winning performance. Houston has allowed the fewest total yards (269.2) and points per game (16.3) this season, while the Raiders’ offensive line has allowed the most sacks (54) in the league. This matters because the Texans are double-digit favorites, meaning Las Vegas will likely be playing from behind. Houston should have success regardless of who is under center for the Raiders. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Texans 34, Raiders 10
Moody’s pick: Texans 30, Raiders 10
Walder’s pick: Texans 26, Raiders 10
FPI prediction: HOU, 80.3% (by an average of 13.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: QB Smith on Raiders future: ‘I’m expecting to win a lot of games here’ … Texans’ offense seems to have found stride with QB Stroud back
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | BAL -3 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Patriots: When the Patriots gathered for their initial team meeting of the week, coach Mike Vrabel told them to expect to see running plays from the Ravens similar to the rushes they faced last week against the Bills. The Patriots’ run defense had trouble controlling the line of scrimmage, staying in assigned gaps and building a wall, with Vrabel saying the Ravens will likely want to see “where we’re at with them.” It doesn’t help the team’s cause that DT Milton Williams (ankle) remains on injured reserve, and LB Robert Spillane (foot/ankle) has been slowed by an injury that kept him sidelined last week and held out of practice this week. — Mike Reiss
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: One of the biggest issues for QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense has been the lack of production inside the 20-yard line. Baltimore’s red zone offense ranks 31st, converting touchdowns only 44% of the time. But the Ravens are facing a Patriots defense that ranks dead last in the red zone (75%). “We have to play our best football,” center Tyler Linderbaum said. “Talent, certainly, is not an issue. We have all the playmakers in the world. It comes down to just execution.” — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Patriots QB Drake Maye leads the NFL in QBR (79.2), completion percentage (70.2%) and YPA (9.2) on the road. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Patriots edge K’Lavon Chaisson will record a sack. He has 6.5 on the season but hasn’t taken down a QB in over a month. As a team, the Ravens have taken sacks on 9.2% of dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Patriots can clinch a playoff berth with a win, Texans loss or Colts loss. The Ravens have a 38% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics, which rises to 48% with win and drops to 24% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Even though Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson is in a committee with Rhamondre Stevenson, Henderson belongs in lineups. He has scored at least 28 fantasy points in three of his past five games. Over the past three games, the Ravens’ defensive front ranks 26th in run stop win rate, while the Patriots’ offensive line ranks eighth in run block win rate. Henderson should shine. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody Betting nugget: The Ravens are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more. — ESPN Research Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 23 Matchup must-reads: Can the Patriots clinch a playoff berth this week? … ‘Go out with a bang’: Ravens want to avoid worst home record in team history Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | SF -6 (46.5 O/U) What we’re hearing on the 49ers: There’s an alternate reality in which QB Philip Rivers‘ comeback happened three years ago and he returned as a member of the 49ers. When injuries hit the Niners’ QB room in 2022, the team and Rivers discussed his return enough to the point he actually sat in on some videoconferences. Ultimately, Brock Purdy proved ready for the job, but now Rivers and the Colts are the only thing standing between San Francisco and a playoff berth. Coach Kyle Shanahan said he actually found himself on a video call with Rivers last week as Rivers caught up with Niners defensive assistant Gus Bradley. “I was telling him how cool it would be [to return], and then about 10 seconds into it I realized that we were playing against him in 10 days,” Shanahan said, laughing. “So, I tried to kind of sway him away from that and tell him how dumb it would be. It didn’t work.” — Nick Wagoner What we’re hearing on the Colts: Can the Colts finally generate more offense? Indianapolis produced its four lowest yardage marks of the season in its past four games and needs to find ways to become more productive. In those games, the Colts have averaged 17.8 points. All of this comes after the Colts began the season with the NFL’s hottest offense, leading the league in scoring and yards per game through 10 weeks. For this trajectory to change, the Colts will have to get more out of Rivers, who came out of retirement to relieve injured Daniel Jones (Achilles). Rivers threw for 120 passing yards last week. — Stephen Holder Stat to know: The Colts have gone three straight games scoring fewer than 20 points. They haven’t done so in four or more consecutive games since a streak of six straight in 2017. — ESPN Research Bold prediction: 49ers LB Tatum Bethune will record the most tackles of any player in Week 16. The Colts were the most run-heavy team in the league last week relative to expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and Bethune has a 29% tackle rate against the run — highest among all LBs with at least 250 defensive snaps. — Walder What’s at stake: The 49ers can clinch the playoffs with a win or a Lions loss. The Colts currently hold a 12% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics (improves to 22% with a win and falls to 6% with a loss). See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research Fantasy nugget: 49ers WR Jauan Jennings should prosper thanks to his elite red zone usage and a favorable matchup. He has scored at least 13 fantasy points in five of his past six games, finding the end zone six times. Jennings also saw at least five targets in each of those games. The Colts’ defense has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season. Read more. — ESPN Research Maldonado’s pick: 49ers 22, Colts 21 Matchup must-reads: 49ers hope to keep offense rolling down tough stretch … Colts QB Richardson cleared to practice
Moody’s pick: Patriots 24, Ravens 21
Walder’s pick: Patriots 23, Ravens 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 60.4% (by an average of 3.9 points)
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Colts 24
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Colts 16
FPI prediction: SF, 61.2% (by an average of 4.3 points)
The German word of the week in the Bundesliga ahead of Saturday’s showdown (live at 12:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN+) is not the marketing invention der Klassiker but rather die Aufholjagd (literally, “the hunt to pursue”).
There are in all honesty, very few, even here in the bustling Ruhrpott this week, who believe Borussia Dortmund are likely to make up nine points on leaders Bayern Munich. With the goal difference equation stacked in favor of the Rekordmeister, that is the challenge facing BVB with only 11 games left. But a head-to-head Gipfeltreffen (summit meeting) offers a chance for a new perspective.
Dortmund have spent much of this season under Niko Kovac defying stereotypes: showing a more stable face, grinding out wins, pressing better, reemerging as clearly the second-best team in the Bundesrepublik.
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But on Wednesday night in Bergamo, the old problems came back to haunt die Schwarz-Gelben, and the team collectively had to Lehrgeld zahlen (literally pay up as a result of being taught a painful lesson) after being eliminated by Atalanta in their knockout round playoff tie in the UEFA Champions League.
Whether Dortmund can translate those lessons — among them, don’t start a big match so passively and Gregor Kobel, don’t give the ball to the opposition with extra time looming — into something successful against a team of Bayern’s sheer quality, is another matter.
Bayern are almost certain to break the Bundesliga’s single-season goal-scoring record (they have 85 goals and need 17 more, a mere bagatelle surely?) Harry Kane requires 14 between now and mid-May to surpass Robert Lewandowski‘s 2020-21 benchmark of 41 league goals. The Englishman has registered a Doppelpack (double) in each of his past three league matches and if he stays fit, you would not bet against him becoming the most goal-rich winner of the Torjägerkanone award ever.
With Michael Olise scoring freely and more importantly, assisting others, and Luis Díaz posing significant problems for opposing sides, Bayern win most games by overwhelming and obliterating. Nobody does it better.
There is, however, a slight glass-jaw quality defensively, which has been evident since January, with only one Bundesliga clean sheet so far this calendar year.
Augsburg for example, have gone to the Allianz Arena and beaten them, Hoffenheim caused them bother even while down to 10 men, and last week Eintracht Frankfurt scored a couple of late goals that Bayern fans, anticipating an easy win, will have seen as nervig (irritating).
At the time of writing, it is unclear who will stand between the posts for the Rekordmeister. Manuel Neuer has been working all week in a bid to get back into the side after sustaining a calf muscle injury at the Weserstadion nearly two weeks ago.
However, Bayern have faith in 22-year-old understudy Jonas Urbig, who looks ever more like the future custodian. Urbig stumbled in the Augsburg game, but his performances have ranged mostly from good to excellent.
If there are any doubts about Neuer’s fitness, it would seem foolish — given the eight-point difference at the top and crunch Champions League matches ahead — to take a chance. Alphonso Davies is out for the foreseeable future with a muscle fiber injury, but with Konrad Laimer available again, Vincent Kompany has plenty of squad depth in the fullback positions with Josip Stanisic and Hiroki Ito.
It almost seems unfair to Dortmund, given the colossal task that they face on Saturday, that right wing back Julian Ryerson is suspended. The Norwegian, once viewed as an honest journeyman, has transformed himself into one of the most valuable players in Kovac’s squad.
Diligent in normal play, Ryerson’s deliveries from open or set play situations can be devilish and he recently crafted all four goals in the same game against Mainz. Yan Couto, more adventurous going forward but less secure defensively, must fulfill that role against Bayern.
At least Nico Schlotterbeck will return to anchor the Dreierkette (back three) in front of Kobel, whose 11 clean sheets top the Bundesliga goalkeeping charts. BVB will require energy and guile in abundance from Marcel Sabitzer and Felix Nmecha in midfield against the formidable duo of Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic.
Saturday is due to be another day of Verkehrschaos in Dortmund and there have been a few recently. This one is due to industrial action by the trade union, Verdi, knocking out the Stadtbahn (city train/tram service) and bus lines. Fans have been urged to walk the 40 minutes from the Stadtzentrum (city center) to the Signal Iduna Park.
Thereafter, there’s a very real danger that in 90 minutes, Dortmund’s season could effectively disappear in a puff of smoke. Already out of the Champions League and the DFB-Pokal, defeat in the Klassiker would make an Aufholjagd unthinkable.
PARIS:
Real Madrid and Manchester City will face off in a Champions League knockout tie for the fifth season running after being drawn Friday to play each other in the last 16, while reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain will take on Chelsea.
The Spanish giants, record 15-time European champions, will host City in the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu next month before travelling to England for the return the following week.
The clubs have already played each other this season, with Pep Guardiola’s City winning 2-1 in Madrid in December during the league phase, in which the Premier League club finished eighth and Real ninth.
That allowed City, Champions League winners in 2023, to advance straight to the last 16 while Madrid had to come through the knockout phase play-offs, in which they beat Benfica 3-1 on aggregate.
This is the eighth season in which the teams have played each other since 2012. Real beat City in the knockout phase play-offs last season, and in the quarter-finals on the way to winning the trophy in 2024. They also emerged victorious in the semi-finals in 2022 with City winning at the same stage the following year.
PSG will be at home to Chelsea in the first leg after qualifying for this stage with a 5-4 aggregate win over Ligue 1 rivals Monaco in the play-offs. Chelsea progressed straight to the last 16 after finishing sixth in the league phase.
The sides played each other in the knockout stages in three consecutive years from 2014 to 2016, with Chelsea winning the first of those confrontations in the quarter-finals and PSG triumphing in the last 16 in the following two.
Their last encounter came in July’s Club World Cup final in the United States, when Chelsea won 3-0 against last season’s European champions.
Chelsea have been coached since January by Liam Rosenior, who had previously come up against PSG in Ligue 1 as coach of Strasbourg.
Meanwhile, Newcastle United will take on Barcelona with the first leg at St James’ Park — the Spanish side won 2-1 there during the league phase in September.
There is a record total of six English clubs in the last 16. Liverpool will have a rematch against Galatasaray, the Turkish giants having defeated the Anfield club 1-0 in September in the league phase.
Arsenal will come up against Bayer Leverkusen and Tottenham Hotspur were drawn to play Atletico Madrid.
German champions Bayern Munich will play Atalanta, the sole Italian club left in the competition, while Norwegian upstarts Bodo/Glimt’s reward for knocking out Inter Milan is a last-16 tie against Sporting of Portugal.
The first legs will take place on March 10 and 11, with the second legs a week later. The teams who qualified directly for this stage after finishing in the top eight in the league phase will all be at home in the return matches.
This season’s Champions League final will take place at the Puskas Arena in Budapest on May 30.
“Is this going to be a busy cycle?”
It’s the question most asked of industry insiders around this time every year, as athletic directors, coaches, search firms and agents gear up for the college basketball coaching carousel. Normally, it’s easy to tell which direction the cycle is heading. Last year, there were five high-major programs already open when this story appeared, and 15 power-conference jobs changed hands when the carousel finally stopped spinning.
Could we match that number this season? Kansas State is the only high-major job open as things stand, with Jerome Tang’s ousting failing to jump-start an early string of firings thus far.
There are more than a dozen high-major jobs on the hot seat, but administrations are facing a similar quandary to last season: give their embattled head coach more money to build a roster or pay out the rest of that coach’s contract and start anew? Several of the coaches mentioned below have a substantial amount of money remaining on their deals, and schools will be hesitant to pay those buyouts. Word is already starting to trickle out from some schools that are instead opting to raise their men’s basketball NIL budget and giving their coach one more season to turn things around. But some schools are also hoping to raise their NIL budget — to give to a new coach.
There’s also the question of what type of hiring cycle this will be. Last year, the power-conference carousel featured a mix of lateral moves, mid-major names taking a jump, NBA assistants dropping into college and the occasional high-major assistant getting an opportunity. If more than 10 power-conference programs open up again, it will be interesting to see which bucket is the most prevalent.
To prepare you for the next two months of coaching machinations and the accompanying rumors — of which there will be many — let’s take a look at the biggest jobs and names to watch on the 2026 men’s college basketball carousel.
Jump to a section:
Jobs already open | Jobs that could open | Least a year away
Potential retirements | High-profile candidates | Who’s ready to jump up?
Jobs already open
Jerome Tang was let go earlier this month after less than four seasons in Manhattan and less than three seasons removed from an Elite Eight run. But the Wildcats were 1-11 in Big 12 play and hadn’t returned to the NCAA tournament since 2023. Whether Kansas State had enough to fire him for cause will be figured out in the future.
Meanwhile, athletic director Gene Taylor will look for Tang’s replacement. It’s still early in the search, but names such as Utah State‘s Jerrod Calhoun, Belmont‘s Casey Alexander, Northern Iowa‘s Ben Jacobson and Creighton associate head coach — and Bluejays coach-in-waiting — Alan Huss are already sprouting up. Could Taylor also look to get a sitting high-major head coach, someone like Mississippi State‘s Chris Jans?
Other jobs currently open or with an interim head coach: Air Force, Cal State Bakersfield, North Florida, San Diego, Tarleton State
Jobs that could open
Bobby Hurley’s contract is up after this season and all signs point to the Sun Devils moving on from him. They’ve been playing better basketball of late, but they’re headed for their third straight season without an NCAA tournament appearance. Overall, in Hurley’s 11 seasons at the helm, Arizona State has gone to only three NCAA tournaments (it would have been a fourth had the tournament been held in 2020) and has yet to win a game. But when the dust settles on this cycle, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hurley land on his feet closer to the Northeast.
The optimism that followed a 20-win 2023-24 season seems a long time ago. BC finished next-to-last in the ACC in 2024-25, and is trending toward a similar ending this season. In fact, coach Earl Grant has yet to lead the Eagles to a .500 finish in conference play, and they entered the week just 6-28 in ACC games over the past two seasons. He’s under contract through the 2028-29 season, and it’s one of the worst Power 4 jobs in the country, but an opening appears likely.
Thad Matta is in the fourth year of his second stint at Butler, but he has yet to lead the Bulldogs to an NCAA tournament appearance since returning. In fact, the program hasn’t gone dancing since 2018 (although it would’ve gone in 2020). There is speculation Matta, 58, could step down, and Atlanta Hawks assistant Ronald Nored, who played at Butler under Brad Stevens, has long been linked as a potential candidate.
Wes Miller might be coaching himself off of the hot seat with the Bearcats’ recent play. They entered the week on a four-game winning streak, including Saturday’s 16-point win over Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. Another couple of wins, and Cincinnati could even find itself in the midst of the bubble conversation. The Bearcats haven’t gone to the NCAA tournament since Miller was hired in 2021, and they’ve spent real money on talented rosters the past few seasons. The former UNC Greensboro coach is owed nearly $10 million if he’s fired before April 1, but that guarantee drops to less than $5 million on April 1.
Industry sources are beginning to believe Tech is trending toward opening. The athletic director who hired Stoudamire is no longer at the school, the Yellow Jackets are currently in last place in the ACC — despite having a roster with a respectable level of talent — and Damon Stoudamire is just 42-52 in three seasons. He would reportedly be owed less than $3 million if the program moved on at the end of the season.
Athletic director Verge Ausberry raised the temperature on Matt McMahon last month, telling the Baton Rouge Advocate he’d made it clear to McMahon that the Tigers needed to make the NCAA tournament, or he would be forced to “reevaluate.” After a 12-1 start to the season, the Tigers are just 2-12 in SEC play, struggling mightily with star point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. sitting out most of conference play because of a foot injury. McMahon hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament in four years since arriving at LSU, and he’s just 16-52 in the SEC during that time. He would be owed about $8 million if fired — which, along with the injury issues, could ultimately play a role in McMahon trending toward returning for another season.
Penny Hardaway appeared to have Memphis on the right track after last season’s 29-win season and 5-seed in the NCAA tournament — the Tigers’ third tourney trip in four years. But things have fallen apart this season. Hardaway had won at least 20 games in each of his previous seven seasons in charge, but the Tigers dropped to 12-15 overall after their third straight double-digit loss Sunday. He was very emotional in his postgame news conference after an earlier loss, at times fighting back tears. Whether athletic director Ed Scott wants to fire a program legend 12 months after earning a 5-seed remains to be seen — as does whether Hardaway wants to step away on his own. He signed a six-year contract extension in 2022 that runs through the 2027-28 season.
It’s only two years into Jake Diebler’s tenure in Columbus, but the Buckeyes are squarely on the cutline for the NCAA tournament. If they don’t hear their name on Selection Sunday, that will be two years without a tournament appearance for Diebler, four years for the program as a whole. The latest word out of Columbus is that he’s probably safe for another season, but that could depend on what happens over the next three weeks. The school would be on the hook for just over $3 million.
Porter Moser led the Sooners on a late-season surge last season that staved off hot seat pressure, but the program entered this week with losses in 11 of its past 13 games. A roster built via the transfer portal last offseason hasn’t clicked, and OU is now going to miss the NCAA tournament for a fourth time in five seasons. New athletic director Roger Denny, who was hired in late January, will face a critical decision within weeks of his arrival. Moser has more than $5 million left on his deal.
It has been an inconsistent eight seasons in Pittsburgh for Jeff Capel. The Panthers struggled in his first four seasons, then turned things around with 46 wins and one NCAA tournament appearance over the next two (2022-23 and 2023-24). But they took a step back last season, and are now hovering near last place in the ACC, sitting at 10-17 overall and 3-11 in league play. In 2024, Capel signed a contract extension through the 2029-30 season, and would be owed eight figures if fired.
Kim English showed considerable promise in Year 1 (2023-24), leading the Friars to 21 wins and within reach of the NCAA tournament. But he has failed to build off that first year, entering this week with a 24-35 (11-25 Big East) record over the past two seasons despite spending substantial money to build those rosters. Providence gave English a contract extension after that first season, signing him through 2029-30. He would be owed a significant amount of money if fired.
It simply hasn’t quite clicked for Red Autry since he took over for Hall of Famer Jim Boeheim in 2023. He won 20 games in Year 1, then struggled last season. After compiling an impressive on-paper roster with enough talent to compete in the ACC, Syracuse is now just 6-9 in conference play. The Orange made an attempt at bubble consideration after beating Cal and SMU earlier this month, but a pair of blowout losses to Duke and North Carolina probably ended those hopes. One variable to consider: athletic director John Wildhack recently announced he would be retiring this summer.
Probably at least a year away
In reality, Ed Cooley is arguably the safest name on this list. He’s only three years into a long-term contract that reportedly pays him nearly $6 million a season, and the Hoyas have poured plenty of resources into helping him be the coach to return them to their glory days. It hasn’t gone well thus far, with Cooley entering the week with a 15-41 record in Big East play since taking over in the District. But he’ll get at least another season to turn it around.
Hubert Davis entered the season on one of the hotter seats in college basketball, but the Tar Heels are now ranked in the top 20 and are a second-weekend threat with Caleb Wilson expected to return from a hand injury. Barring a catastrophic finish to the season, Davis isn’t at risk of losing his job. He signed a contract extension in December 2024 that keeps him in Chapel Hill through the 2029-30 season, and he would be owed around $5 million if Carolina moved on. A couple of NCAA tournament wins might also ease some of the perceived pressure from the fan base, though this season’s performance, combined with a top-10 recruiting class coming in next season, cools off his seat moving forward.
Three seasons into his tenure in South Bend, Micah Shrewsberry has yet to finish above .500 overall, or in the ACC. The 2025-26 season has been his worst showing, with the Fighting Irish entering the week just 3-11 in conference play. There’s no appetite to make an immediate move, sources told ESPN, though, and Shrewsberry is still signed through the 2029-30 season.
Mike Rhoades arrived in State College in 2023 with three NCAA tournament trips in his previous five seasons at VCU. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions haven’t come close to the tournament during his three seasons in the Big Ten. They’re last in the conference this season, with a 2-15 record. When Rhoades was hired, he signed a seven-year contract with nearly $26 million guaranteed. There’s still $15.4 million remaining on it.
Since going to back-to-back NCAA tournaments in 2021 and 2022, it has been a steady downhill turn for Steve Pikiell and the Scarlet Knights. Despite having two top-five NBA draft picks last season, Rutgers finished 15-17 overall. It entered this week 11-16 overall and 4-12 in the Big Ten. Pikiell is owed an enormous amount of money, though, with a fully guaranteed deal through the 2030-31 season and more than $20 million left on his contract.
After struggling in Year 1 in Columbia, Lamont Paris guided the Gamecocks to a 26-win season in 2023-24, earning a 6-seed in the NCAA tournament and winning SEC Coach of the Year. But the Gamecocks haven’t come close to sustaining that momentum, entering the week with a 24-35 (5-27 SEC) record over the past two seasons. But it sounds as if the school plans to increase Paris’ NIL budget, in the hope that he will turn things around next season. Paris signed a six-year, $26 million extension through 2029-30, and there’s just over $12 million remaining.
The Hokies entered the week with bubble hopes still alive, sitting at 18-10 overall (7-8 ACC) with games at North Carolina and Virginia remaining that could boost their tournament résumé. Regardless of those results, it appears Mike Young is safe for another season — after which his last contract extension ends. Tech has missed the past three NCAA tournaments after making back-to-back appearances in 2021 and 2022.
The latest intel out of Winston-Salem points to Steve Forbes returning to the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is poised to miss the NCAA tournament for a sixth straight season, entering the week with a 14-13 overall record (5-9 ACC) — despite the fact that Forbes has won at least 19 games in four of his six seasons. Forbes, who signed a long-term extension in 2022 on a contract that had already run through 2026, also has a strong relationship with athletic director John Currie.
It’s only Year 2 for Danny Sprinkle with the Huskies, but things are already starting to heat up in Seattle. The program has spent significant money on Sprinkle’s rosters, but is just 26-32 overall in those two seasons, including 9-27 in Big Ten play. When Sprinkle was hired in March 2024, he’d signed a six-year, $22.1 million contract.
Others to watch: UAlbany, Ball State, The Citadel, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Fullerton, Gardner-Webb, Georgia State, Holy Cross, Little Rock, Niagara, Northern Illinois, Rider, Sacred Heart, Southern Indiana, Tennessee Tech, UNC Greensboro, UTEP, Weber State, Western Michigan
Potential retirements to monitor
The obvious place to start is Creighton’s Greg McDermott, who hired Alan Huss last season from High Point to be his associate head coach and coach-in-waiting. There has been no definitive timeline given by McDermott, although the change could happen as soon as after this season.
While speculation has surrounded Colorado’s Tad Boyle and Oregon’s Dana Altman seemingly every season, both are likely to be back in their positions for the 2026-27 campaign, sources told ESPN. The Buffaloes have struggled since moving to the Big 12, sitting at 29-33 (8-26 Big 12) in two seasons, but there have been no significant retirement discussions at Colorado, as the conversations have been focused on retaining the Buffaloes’ young core for next season. Altman is in the midst of his worst season since going 7-19 at Creighton in 1994-95, with the Ducks currently 10-17 (3-13 Big Ten). Before this season, he had won at least 20 games in 15 straight seasons and went to the past two NCAA tournaments. But after a season beset by injuries, there’s no expectation for any change or a retirement. Oregon also remains fully committed to the longtime head coach.
In the elite coaches tier, there’s annual speculation about Tennessee’s Rick Barnes, Gonzaga‘s Mark Few, Houston’s Kelvin Sampson, Kansas’ Bill Self and Michigan State‘s Tom Izzo — but all five programs are ranked in the top 20 and none of the coaches seem overly eager to step away. It wouldn’t be a shock if one of them did, but it’s impossible to predict at this point.
Dayton’s Anthony Grant is also rumored to be mulling a potential retirement. The Flyers entered the week tied for third in the Atlantic 10, but they have gone to only one NCAA tournament since he took over in 2017. It should be noted that the Flyers were tracking for a 1-seed in 2020 before the NCAA tournament was canceled. Grant was also recently named the head coach of the USA Basketball men’s U18 national team for this summer; does that make him more likely to stay?
High-profile candidates to keep an eye on
T.J. Otzelberger, Iowa State
Otzelberger has established himself as one of the elite coaches in college basketball, and he signed a new contract in December 2024 with a restructured buyout that makes him potentially attainable. If Ohio State were to open, there’s reason to believe the Buckeyes would look to gauge Otzelberger’s interest. That said, he’s happy in Ames, with no signs of him itching to leave, and he has a great relationship with Cyclones athletic director Jamie Pollard.
Chris Jans, Mississippi State
After going to the NCAA tournament in each of his first three seasons in Starkville, Jans and the Bulldogs are limping toward a sub-.500 finish this season. Mississippi State is considered one of the worst jobs in the SEC, so it’s conceivable he could look to jump to another high-major program with the right fit.
Will Wade, NC State
Wade has quickly turned around NC State in Year 1, as promised, with the Wolfpack trending toward wearing home jerseys in the first round of the NCAA tournament. But there is growing speculation that LSU would be potentially interested in a reunion, should the Tigers move on from Matt McMahon. Whether Wade would leave NC State after one season is a different story. He previously led LSU to three NCAA tournaments and an SEC title before being fired in 2022 following an NCAA investigation.
Porter Moser, Oklahoma
It’s true, we had Moser on the hot seat earlier, but he also has a big enough name and résumé to land on his feet at a reasonably strong job — whether it’s by leaving on his own or being let go. He has a Final Four and Sweet 16 on his ledger from his time at Loyola Chicago.
Chris Beard, Ole Miss
Beard is in the same category as Jans: a coach who could look to bounce to a job with a bigger budget if something becomes available. The Rebels are struggling mightily this season, sitting only one game out of last place in the SEC at 3-11 (11-16 overall). But Beard did lead Ole Miss to the Sweet 16 last season.
Randy Bennett, Saint Mary’s
Bennett has never shown interest in leaving Saint Mary’s, despite taking the Gaels to 11 NCAA tournament appearances since arriving in Moraga in 2001. But with Arizona State potentially opening, could Bennett — an Arizona native — find that it’s time to make the jump, especially with Gonzaga leaving the WCC?
Shaheen Holloway, Seton Hall
Holloway has guided the Pirates to one of the biggest single-season improvements in the country in 2025-26, going from 7-25 last season to 19-9 entering the week. They’re still trending toward missing the NCAA tournament, but they were picked last in the Big East and their NIL pales in comparison to that of the rest of the conference. Seton Hall hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament under Holloway but did win the NIT in 2024.
Mark Byington, Vanderbilt
There’s no sign Byington has interest in leaving Vanderbilt, but of the coaches at the top 20 schools, he is one of the few who could still potentially make a jump up. He has done one of the best jobs in the country this season, guiding the Commodores to a 16-0 start and a second straight NCAA tournament appearance. But Vanderbilt also checks a lot of boxes for Byington, and there doesn’t appear to be anything in line to open that would be a clear step up. There’s also a sizable buyout to get him out of Nashville.
Richard Pitino, Xavier
Rumors connecting Pitino to Providence have been circulating for several weeks, although it’s difficult to see the partnership coming to fruition. His buyout at Xavier is well into eight figures, and Providence would already have to pay close to $10 million to fire Kim English. With a much lower buyout figure? Perhaps it’s possible. But paying the largest buyout on record to lure a coach in the same league — who entered the week with the same 5-11 Big East record as the potential outgoing coach — doesn’t seem viable.
Kevin Keatts
Keatts was fired by NC State last season, just one year after leading the Wolfpack to the Final Four. He could get back into the sport after only one season out, as his résumé is better than those of other potential candidates this cycle. In addition to the Final Four, Keatts has made five NCAA tournament appearances and won two CAA titles at UNC Wilmington.
Who’s ready to make the jump?
Josh Schertz, Saint Louis
After being one of the hottest names on the coaching carousel only two years ago at Indiana State, Schertz is again the crown jewel of the coaching cycle. He has Saint Louis at 25-2 entering the week, ranked inside the top 25 nationally and on track for a single-digit seed on Selection Sunday. The only thing missing from his résumé is an NCAA tournament appearance — something that will change this season. It’s worth noting Schertz isn’t eager to jump at just any high-major job; he can afford to be selective, or even wait until next year.
Jerrod Calhoun, Utah State
The latest to come off the Utah State high-major coach assembly line, Calhoun has the Aggies atop the Mountain West one year after leading them to the NCAA tournament in his first season in Logan. He’s likely to be high on the list of candidates for any Midwest job, given his Ohio roots. He also has high-major experience from his time as an assistant coach at West Virginia. Calhoun’s new contract, which he signed last March, does include a buyout of more than $3 million.
Casey Alexander, Belmont
Alexander has done a tremendous job this season, taking a Belmont team picked fifth in the Missouri Valley to an outright regular-season title. The Bruins have yet to go to an NCAA tournament since hiring Alexander from Lipscomb in 2019 (though they did win the Ohio Valley tournament in 2020), but will be the favorites to cut down the nets at Arch Madness this season. Alexander has won at least 20 games in each of his past 10 seasons as head coach.
Travis Steele, Miami (Ohio)
Steele is at the helm of the last unbeaten team in men’s college basketball. The topic of a new contract has also already been publicly discussed, with Steele acknowledging over the weekend that the school has offered him a contract extension — and that he has yet to sign it. He has the RedHawks on track for the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007, and also won 25 games last season. He failed to make the NCAA tournament during his four seasons at Xavier in 2019-22 but could soon get a second chance at the high-major level.
Eric Olen, New Mexico
Olen is in his first season at New Mexico, with the Lobos right on the cutline for the NCAA tournament despite being picked fifth in the preseason Mountain West poll. Last season, he led UC San Diego to 30 wins and an NCAA tournament appearance, and was a consistent winner with the Toreros when they were still in Division II.
Bryan Hodgson, South Florida
Hodgson, a former Alabama assistant coach under Nate Oats, has now shown the ability to quickly turn around programs at two different schools. He won 45 games in two seasons at Arkansas State, including a share of the Sun Belt regular-season title last year, and now has South Florida atop the American in Year 1.
Takayo Siddle, UNC Wilmington
Since a 7-10 record in Wilmington during the COVID-19 2020-21 campaign, Siddle has become one of the most consistently successful mid-major coaches in the country. He has won at least 21 games in each of the past five seasons, leading the Seahawks to the 2022 CAA regular-season title and a 2025 NCAA tournament appearance. This season, UNCW sits in first place in the CAA, and it could be the right time for Siddle to make a jump.
Joe Gallo, Merrimack
Gallo and the Warriors won the outright MAAC regular-season championship, with room to spare, this season, holding a four-game lead with two games to go. It’s Gallo’s fourth regular-season title in seven years at the Division I level, and he has done it in two different conferences. Over the past four seasons — two in the NEC and two in the MAAC — Gallo is 55-15 in conference play. Merrimack also won the NEC tournament in 2023, but was then ineligible for the NCAA tournament. Expect Gallo to be involved in the conversation for bigger jobs in the Northeast.
Tony Skinn, George Mason
A couple of weeks ago, Skinn might have been higher up on this list, alongside Schertz and Calhoun. But the Patriots have fallen apart down the stretch and currently sit third in the Atlantic 10. He did lead Mason to a share of the conference regular-season title last season and has won 68 games in three seasons as a head coach, but he has yet to get to the NCAA tournament. He also has high-major experience from his time as an assistant at Maryland, Ohio State and Seton Hall.
John Groce, Akron
Groce has been one of the most consistent mid-major coaches in the country over the last handful of years, going to three NCAA tournaments in four years and winning the MAC regular-season title last year. The Zips are currently 13-1 in league play, their lone loss coming by three points at unbeaten Miami (Ohio). Groce spent five seasons as Illinois’ head coach from 2012 to 2017, winning 20 games three times but taking the Illini to only one NCAA tournament. With the Midwest seeming like the epicenter of this year’s carousel, he could find himself in the mix for a spot.
Others to watch: Dustin Kerns, App State; Chris Mack, Charleston; Matt Langel, Colgate; Brooks Savage, East Tennessee State; Bob Richey, Furman; Bryce Drew, Grand Canyon; Rob Senderoff, Kent State; Ritchie McKay, Liberty; Rod Strickland, Long Island University; Robert Jones, Norfolk State; Bob Richman, North Dakota State; Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa; Andy Toole, Robert Morris; Bashir Mason, Saint Peter’s; Chris Mudge, Sam Houston; Herb Sendek, Santa Clara; Richie Riley, South Alabama; Brad Korn, Southeast Missouri State; Matt Braeuer, Stephen F. Austin; Scott Cross, Troy; Eric Konkol, Tulsa; Andy Kennedy, UAB; Russell Turner, UC Irvine; James Jones, Yale
ESPN’s Pete Thamel contributed to this report.
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