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US–Venezuela Conflict: What It Could Mean For Crude Oil Prices And India’s Economy
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US forces captured Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro and Cilia Flores on drug charges. India faces minimal impact due to reduced Venezuelan oil imports.
US action against Venezuela has put crude oil markets on alert, with potential ripple effects for India’s economy.
US–Venezuela Conflict: The conflict between the United States of America and Venezuela has escalated after the former’s military raided and captured the latter’s President, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife.
US President Donald Trump said that Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were captured in Caracas during a US military operation on January 03, have been indicted on charges of alleged “drug trafficking and narco-terrorism conspiracies” in the Southern District of New York, and will face trial.
Trump said that Maduro and his wife “will soon face the full might of American justice and stand trial on American soil”. According to an unsealed indictment shared by Attorney General Pamela Bondi on X, Maduro and Flores face multiple counts of statutory allegations related to “drug trafficking and narco-terrorism conspiracies”.
A plane carrying Maduro landed near New York City on Saturday night, and he was helicoptered to the city before being taken by a large convoy to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn under a heavy police guard.
Venezuela’s Supreme Court ordered Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to assume the powers and duties of acting president after the US removed Nicolas Maduro, CNN reported.
With a sudden geopolitical turmoil and being a major oil supplier country, there are concerns regarding the spike in crude oil prices, which could have an impact on the Indian economy.
Will the US-Venezuela Crisis Have an Impact On India?
Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), in a note, said that India is unlikely to be affected by the ongoing crisis in Venezuela in terms of material economy or energy.
The trade body said that India has been reducing crude shipments from Venezuela in recent years. It added that since 2019, when US sanctions took effect, the country reduced imports and commercial activity, and curbed trade from the South American nation.
In 2024–25, India’s imports from Venezuela declined sharply to $364.5 million, with crude oil accounting for $255.3 million of the total. This represented a steep 81.3 percent fall from imports worth $1.4 billion in 2023–24.
India’s exports to Venezuela remained modest at $95.3 million during the year, led by pharmaceutical shipments valued at $41.4 million.
Given the limited trade exposure, ongoing sanctions and the significant geographical distance, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said the latest developments in Venezuela are unlikely to have any material impact on India’s economy or its energy security.
India May Benefit If Sanctions Ease
India is expected to re-emerge as a key buyer if Venezuelan supplies return. “If sanctions are eased… trade flows can resume rapidly,” said Kpler analyst Nikhil Dubey, noting that Indian refineries are technically well suited to process Venezuelan heavy crude, as quoted by PTI.
Crude Oil Prices May Jump In Near Future
Crude oil prices is likely to see a gap-up opening when the market opens on Monday, January 5, according to market experts told LiveMint.
“The US attack on Venezuela is expected to trigger geopolitical tension in the region, which is expected to fuel the uncertainty. Hence, I expect a gap-up opening for gold, silver, copper, crude oil, gasoline, and other commodities,” said Anuj Gupta, Director of Ya Wealth.
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January 04, 2026, 16:14 IST
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Your SBI YONO App Will Be Blocked If You Don’t Update Your Aadhaar? Details You Need To Know
New Delhi: A viral message is circulating in the social media regarding SBI, claiming that users must download and install an APK file to update their Aadhaar. The viral message has further claimed that if Aadhaar is not updated, the SBI YONO app will be blocked.
Fact-checking agency PIB has refuted the social media claim. PIB has stated that the claim being made in this post is misleading and FAKE.
PIB has further cautioned users to not fall prey to such fake messages. It tweeted, “Do NOT download any APKs or share personal, banking, or Aadhaar details. SBI does NOT ask for such information.”
It has also advised consumers to report suspicious messages to report.phishing@sbi.co.in for necessary action.
How to get messages fact-checked by PIB
If you get any such suspicious message, you can always know its authenticity and check if the news is for real or it is a fake news. For that, you need to send the message to https://factcheck.pib.gov.in. Alternatively you can send a WhatsApp message to +918799711259 for fact check. You can also send your message to pibfactcheck@gmail.com. The fact check information is also available on https://pib.gov.in.
Business
Stock market today: Nifty50 opens below 26,150; BSE Sensex down over 100 points – The Times of India
Stock market today: Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, the Indian equity benchmark indices, opened in red on Wednesday. While Nifty50 went below 26,150, BSE Sensex was down over 100 points. At 9:18 AM, Nifty50 was trading at 26,132.00, down 47 points or 0.18%. BSE Sensex was at 84,953.09, down 110 points or 0.13%.Analysts believe that equity markets are expected to move in a narrow range in the near term, as optimism from encouraging third-quarter business updates is offset by lingering geopolitical risks.Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says, “The recent market movements have been devoid of any trend and clear direction. Actions in a few mega stocks are influencing the overall market disproportionately. For instance, yesterday despite positive institutional buying Nifty drifted down by 71 points, mainly due to sharp declines in two stocks- Reliance and HDFC Bank. The large volumes in these two stocks in the derivative and cash market indicate activity associated with settlement day. In other words, the sharp dips in these stocks have nothing to do with their fundamentals; it is more technical in nature.” “Going forward, there is scope for high volatility caused by events and news. Trump tweets and actions can always influence the market. Another important event which investors should closely watch is a possible Supreme Court verdict on Trump tariffs very soon. If the verdict goes against the reciprocal tariffs it will create huge volatility in stock markets.”Global cues were mixed. Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, supported by a strong rally in semiconductor stocks driven by renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. Shares of Moderna also advanced, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a fresh record high.Asian markets paused on Wednesday after a strong start to the year. Japanese equities declined amid rising tensions with China, prompting some investors to turn cautious despite the broader strength seen in global stocks so far this year.On the institutional front, foreign portfolio investors were net sellers of Indian equities worth Rs 107 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data. Domestic institutional investors, however, continued to provide support to the market, recording net purchases of Rs 1749 crore.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Kayla Epsteinand
Osmond Chia
Getty ImagesUS President Donald Trump has said Venezuela “will be turning over” up to 50m barrels of oil to the US, after a surprise military operation that removed President Nicolás Maduro from power.
The oil will be sold at its market price, Trump posted on social media, adding that the money would be controlled by himself and used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the US.
His comments come after he said the US oil industry would be “up and running” in Venezuela within 18 months and that he expected huge investments to pour into the country.
Analysts previously told the BBC it could take tens of billions of dollars, and potentially a decade, to restore Venezuela’s former output.
Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday: “I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America.
“This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!”
His comment came a day after Delcy Rodríguez, formerly Venezuela’s vice-president, was sworn in as its interim president. Maduro has been brought to the US to face drug-trafficking and weapons charges.
On Monday the US president told NBC News: “Having a Venezuela that’s an oil producer is good for the United States because it keeps the price of oil down.”
Representatives from major US petroleum companies planned to meet the Trump administration this week, the BBC’s US partner CBS reported.
Analysts who previously spoke to the BBC were sceptical that Trump’s plans would have a major impact on the global supply – and therefore price – of oil.
They suggested that firms would look for reassurance that a stable government was in place, and even when they did invest, their projects would not deliver for years.
Trump has argued in recent days that American oil companies can fix Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.
The country has an estimated 303bn barrels – the world’s largest proven reserve – but its oil production has been in decline since the early 2000s.
The Trump administration sees significant potential for its own energy prospects in Venezuela’s reserves.
Increasing the country’s production of oil would be expensive for US firms.
Venezuelan oil is also heavy and more difficult to refine. There is only one US firm, Chevron, currently operating in the country.
Asked for comment about Trump’s plans for US oil production in Venezuela, Chevron spokesman Bill Turenne said the company “remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets”.
“We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations,” Turenne added.
ConocoPhillips, a major US oil company that no longer has a presence in Venezuela, “is monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability”, said spokesman Dennis Nuss.
“It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments,” Nuss said.
A third company, Exxon, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
While justifying the seizure of Maduro from Caracas, Trump also claimed that Venezuela “unilaterally seized and stole American oil”.
Vice-President JD Vance echoed those claims on X after Maduro was taken, writing that “Venezuela expropriated American oil property and until recently used that stolen property to get rich and fund their narcoterrorist activities”.
The reality is more complex.
US oil companies have a long history in Venezuela, extracting oil under licence agreements.
Venezuela nationalised its oil industry in 1976 and in 2007, President Hugo Chavez exerted more state control over the remaining foreign-owned assets of US oil firms operating in the country.
In 2019, a World Bank tribunal ordered Venezuela to pay $8.7 billion to ConocoPhillips in compensation for this 2007 move.
That sum has not been paid by Venezuela, so at least one US oil company has outstanding compensation which is owed to it.
But BBC Verify’s Ben Chu said the claim Venezuela has “stolen” American oil is too simplistic, as experts said the oil itself was never actually owned by anyone except Venezuela.
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