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Reaching net zero migration would squeeze public finances, warns think tank
Net zero migration to the UK could shrink the economy and result in taxes rising to plug a funding shortfall, an influential economic think tank has warned.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said such a scenario would “put pressure on the public finances” in its latest economic outlook report.
Net migration figures show the difference between the number of people moving long-term to the country and the number of people leaving.
It would be net zero if the number of people leaving was equal to those arriving.
The latest official figures showed that net migration dropped to 204,000 in the year to June, down 69% year-on-year, and raising the possibility of Britain reaching net zero before the end of the decade, according to some forecasters.
Niesr, a research institute which is independent of party-political interests, said net zero migration would slow down employment growth and lead to a smaller proportion of working-age people, therefore resulting in lower tax revenues.
This would leave the government needing to raise taxes to plug a growing funding gap in the long tun.
Reduced tax revenues could also be met through higher borrowing, which would increase the budget deficit by around 0.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), equivalent to around £37 billion in today’s prices, by 2040, according to the analysis.
But if net migration stayed positive, a larger working-age population would broaden the tax base and help stabilise the debt to GDP ratio, Niesr said.
Stephen Millard, Niesr’s deputy director for macroeconomics, said: “Our analysis clearly shows that net zero migration would put pressure on the public finances and worsen the public debt outlook.
“Unlike Japan, the United Kingdom lacks the institutional and financial conditions to support a substantially higher debt ratio.
“We therefore recommend the Government makes a concerted effort to get public debt down, so it has room to respond to a sharp fall in migration or any other negative shock happening to the UK economy.”
Elsewhere in the latest report, Niesr lowered its outlook for UK economic growth in 2025.
It now expects GDP to be 1.4% for the year, down from the 1.5% it forecast in November.
The think tank predicts that the economy will slow to 1.3% in 2027 and 1.1% in 2028 as taxes rise and government spending growth falls.
It is also forecasting the rate of unemployment to rise to a peak of 5.5% in the second half of 2026, before gradually declining.
Meanwhile, Niesr said it was forecasting two cuts to interest rates this year, bringing them down to 3.25% by the end of 2026 as inflation falls.
New Delhi: February 2026 brings a series of important deadlines related to Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) that taxpayers and deductors should not overlook. From issuing TDS certificates to submitting mandatory statutory forms, these compliance dates play a key role in ensuring smooth and accurate tax reporting. Businesses, employers, and government offices must stay alert and complete the required filings on time to avoid penalties or complications under the Income-tax Act. Keeping track of these dates can help ensure hassle-free compliance and prevent last-minute stress.
February 14:
– Deadline for issuing TDS certificate under Section 194-IA for tax deducted on transfer of immovable property in December 2025.
– Deadline for issuing TDS certificate under Section 194-IB for tax deducted on rent paid by individuals or HUFs in December 2025.
– Deadline for issuing TDS certificate under Section 194M for tax deducted on contractual or professional payments made in December 2025.
– Deadline for issuing TDS certificate under Section 194S for tax deducted on transfer of virtual digital assets by specified persons in December 2025.
February 15:
– Deadline for government offices to furnish Form 24G where TDS/TCS for January 2026 was deposited without generating a challan.
– Deadline for issuing the quarterly TDS certificate for non-salary payments for the quarter ended December 31, 2025.
New Delhi: US entrepreneur Elon Musk’s net worth surged past the $800 billion mark after SpaceX acquired his artificial‑intelligence firm xAI, making him the richest person in history by a wide margin.
Musk’s net worth reached roughly $852 billion, almost $578 billion higher than the world’s second-wealthiest person, Google co-founder Larry Page, whose net worth is estimated at $281 billion.
The merger took the combined value of the company to $1.25 trillion and added about $84 billion to Musk’s fortune, according to reports.
Before the merger, Musk owned about 42 per cent of SpaceX which was valued at $800 billion and roughly 49 per cent of xAI, which was valued at $250 billion after a recent private fundraising round. Post‑merger, Musk’s stake in the combined entity touched 43 per cent, worth about $542 billion and SpaceX became Musk’s largest holding by a wide margin, the reports said.
Musk also retains about 12 per cent of Tesla, valued at approximately $178 billion, along with Tesla stock options, estimated at $124 billion. Further, in addition to these, Musk also receives a shareholder‑approved Tesla pay package up to $1 trillion in additional Tesla stock, before taxes over the next decade and the cost of unlocking restricted shares, if performance targets are met.
He crossed several wealth milestones in the past four months such as $500 billion, $600 billion and $700 billion, driven by SpaceX valuation gains and a Delaware Supreme Court ruling that restored his Tesla options.
Musk earlier said that SpaceX’s Starship will begin delivering the much more powerful V3 Starlink satellites to orbit in 2026, with each launch adding more than 20 times the capacity to the constellation as the current Falcon launches of the V2 Starlink satellites.
It will enable launches “every hour carrying 200 tons per flight” and ultimately lifting millions of tons to orbit and beyond, Musk has shared his plan.
Starship will also launch the next generation of direct-to-mobile satellites, which will deliver full cellular coverage everywhere on Earth, he added.
Last Updated:
Indian equities paused on Wednesday after the previous session’s sharp surge triggered by the India–US trade agreement
Stock Market Today.
Sensex Today: Indian equities paused on Wednesday after the previous session’s sharp surge triggered by the India–US trade agreement. The pact, which reduced US tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, had buoyed sentiment and removed a major overhang, but markets turned cautious as traders booked profits.
A decline in information technology stocks further weighed on the mood.
At the open, the BSE Sensex was around 83,430, down 309 points or 0.37 per cent, while the Nifty 50 stood at 25,663, lower by 65 points or 0.25 per cent.
Broader markets also traded in the red, with the Nifty MidCap index slipping 0.48 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index easing 0.18 per cent.
The Nifty IT index tumbled more than 5.5 per cent, led by losses in Persistent Systems, LTIMindtree, Infosys, HCL Tech, Coforge, TCS, Mphasis and Tech Mahindra.
Global cues
US markets ended lower overnight as investors rotated out of technology stocks into sectors more closely tied to economic recovery. The Dow Jones slipped 0.34 per cent, the S&P 500 declined 0.84 per cent, and the Nasdaq fell 1.43 per cent at the close.
Asian markets were mixed in early trade on Wednesday amid the absence of strong triggers. China’s CSI 300 index dropped 0.29 per cent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.05 per cent, and Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.61 per cent. In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.54 per cent.
In commodities, spot gold gained over 1 per cent to $5,002 per ounce, while spot silver advanced 0.69 per cent to $85.70 per ounce.
On the macro front, investors await the release of S&P Global/HSBC composite and services PMI final data for January from both India and Japan.
February 04, 2026, 09:13 IST
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TDS alert! Important February compliance dates you must track– Check Full list
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