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Netanyahu’s political future at stake with Iran war: experts

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Netanyahu’s political future at stake with Iran war: experts


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a document at the plenum of the Knesset, Israels parliament in Jerusalem February 23, 2026. — Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a document at the plenum of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament in Jerusalem February 23, 2026. — Reuters

With elections approaching in Israel, the war with Iran has handed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to restore an image deeply scarred by October 7, 2023 Gaza attack, experts say.

But any political dividend would depend on how the conflict unfolds and how long it lasts, they say.

A day after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was martyred in a wave of US-Israeli strikes, Netanyahu said that his close ties with Washington had enabled Israel to “do what I have long aspired to do for 40 years: to strike the terrorist regime decisively”.

The Gaza war eroded Netanyahu’s popularity. Critics have accused him of seeking to evade responsibility for the authorities’ failure to prevent the deadliest day in Israel’s history.

At 76, the leader of the right-wing Likud party is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, with more than 18 cumulative years in office across multiple stints.

Known for his political resilience, Netanyahu has been without a parliamentary majority since the summer, amid a crisis with his ultra-Orthodox religious allies.

He is also standing trial in a long-running corruption case and has sought a presidential pardon, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly pressuring President Isaac Herzog to grant one.

‘Total victory’

Elections must be held by October 27 at the latest.

Netanyahu will call early elections, says Emmanuel Navon, a political analyst at Tel Aviv University.

“It’s obvious. He won’t wait until October given the commemoration of the October 7 anniversary,” Navon said.

“If Netanyahu was at rock bottom after the Gaza attack, he has since gradually turned the tide,” he added.

A Likud party led by Netanyahu would emerge ahead in elections held today, opinion polls suggest.

That would likely see him tasked with forming the next government, though he would still lack a majority with his current allies.

A victory over Iran could change that calculus, experts say.

“This offensive undeniably reinforces the image Netanyahu seeks to cultivate, the one associated with his ‘total victory’ slogan,” independent geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz told AFP.

“Netanyahu wants to show that this is not a campaign slogan but a reality. It is his national agenda and his electoral strategy,” he added.

‘Iran remains Iran’

Raviv Druker, a prominent journalist on Channel 13 television, argued that Netanyahu “will try to convince people that the victory is total even if that is an illusion,” noting that “Hamas still runs Gaza, and Iran remains Iran even after Saturday’s strike”.

On the popular news website Walla, journalist Ouriel Deskal went further, suggesting Netanyahu may have chosen the timing of the hostilities to automatically delay — under a state of emergency — the March 30 deadline for passing a budget for which he has struggled to secure a majority.

Without a budget, the government would fall on April 1 and elections would be called.

In that scenario, Netanyahu would enter the campaign from a position of weakness.

By contrast “if this war against Iran is a success for Israel, it will be a political victory for Netanyahu,” Navon said.

But should the war drag on, the picture could shift dramatically, Horowitz warned.

“Public tolerance for a long war with heavy casualties, combined with a high cost of living, remains extremely low,” he said.

During the war last June, Iranian missiles killed 30 people in Israel. Since Saturday, 10 people have been killed in Iran’s retaliatory strikes.

“Israel’s victories are primarily attributed to the army and to civilian resilience, which enabled the country to wage the longest war in its history,” Horowitz noted.

“The army’s popularity is rising, not necessarily Netanyahu’s.”





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UN proliferation meeting begins amid ‘looming’ risk of nuclear arms race

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UN proliferation meeting begins amid ‘looming’ risk of nuclear arms race


UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres speaks during the 11th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) at the United Nations Headquarters in New York on April 27, 2026. — AFP
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres speaks during the 11th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) at the United Nations Headquarters in New York on April 27, 2026. — AFP
  • UN nuclear talks begin as global tensions intensify.
  • Guterres says treaty commitments remain unfulfilled.
  • US President Trump signals potential nuclear tests.

 

Signatories of the landmark nuclear non-proliferation treaty began a meeting Monday at the United Nations as fears of a renewed arms race escalate, with atomic powers again at loggerheads over safeguards.

In 2022, during the last review of the treaty considered the cornerstone of non-proliferation, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned humanity was “one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation.”

On Monday, he warned “the drivers” of nuclear weapons proliferation were accelerating.

“For too long, the treaty has been eroding. Commitments remain unfulfilled. Trust and credibility are wearing thin. The drivers of proliferation are accelerating. We need to breathe life into the treaty once more,” Guterres said in opening remarks.

With global geopolitical friction only heightened since the last meeting, it was unclear what the gathering at UN headquarters could achieve.

France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told signatories that “never has the risk of nuclear proliferation been so high, and the threat posed by Iran’s and North Korea’s programmes is intolerable for each and every state party to this treaty.”

Tempering expectations, Do Hung Viet, Vietnam’s UN ambassador and president of the conference, said: “We should not expect this conference to resolve the underlying strategic tensions of our time.”

“But a balanced outcome that reaffirms core commitments and set out practical steps forward would strengthen the integrity of the NPT,” he said.

“The success or failure of this conference will have implications way beyond these halls,” Viet added. “The prospects of a new nuclear arms race are looming over us.”

The nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT), signed by almost all countries on the planet — with notable exceptions including Israel, India and Pakistan — aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, promote complete disarmament, and encourage cooperation on civilian nuclear projects.

The nine nuclear-armed states — Russia, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea — possessed 12,241 nuclear warheads in January 2025, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) reported.

The US and Russia hold nearly 90% of nuclear weapons globally and have carried out major programs to modernise them in recent years, according to Sipri.

China has also rapidly increased its nuclear stockpile, Sipri said, with the G7 raising the alarm Friday over Moscow and Beijing boosting their nuclear capabilities.

US President Donald Trump has indicated his intention to conduct new nuclear tests, accusing others of doing so clandestinely.

In March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a dramatic shift in nuclear deterrence, notably an increase in the atomic arsenal, currently numbering 290 warheads.

‘Affront’ to NPT

“It is obvious that trust is eroding, both inside and outside the NPT,” Seth Shelden of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, told AFP.

He questioned the likely outcome of the four-week summit.

Decisions on the NPT require agreement by consensus, with the previous two conferences failing to adopt final political declarations.

In 2015, the deadlock was largely due to opposition by Israel’s arch-ally Washington to creation of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East.

A 2022 impasse was due mainly to Russian opposition to references to Ukraine’s nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia, occupied by Moscow.

This year’s summit could hit any number of stumbling blocks.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, Iran’s nuclear programme and the war there, proliferation fears and Pyongyang’s developing arsenal could all be deal-breakers.

The United States along with its allies Britain, the UAE and Australia spoke out at Iran’s appointment as a conference vice president.

Washington’s meeting envoy said conferring a leadership role on Tehran was an “affront” to countries that take the NPT “seriously.”

Artificial intelligence could be a prominent issue as some countries call for all sides to keep human control over nuclear weapons.





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In meeting with Iranian FM, Putin pledges support for Iran

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In meeting with Iranian FM, Putin pledges support for Iran


Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a meeting at the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library in Saint Petersburg, Russia April 27, 2026.— Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a meeting at the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library in Saint Petersburg, Russia April 27, 2026.— Reuters
  • Putin says he received message from Iran’s Supreme Leader.
  • Moscow “will do everything” to achieve regional peace: Putin.
  • Russia building two new nuclear units in Iran’s Bushehr.

Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in St. Petersburg on Monday and told him he hoped the Iranian people would weather what he described as a “difficult period” and that peace would soon prevail.

Russia has offered to mediate to try to help restore calm to the Middle East following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which Moscow has condemned. It has also repeatedly offered to store Iran’s enriched uranium as a way of defusing tensions, an offer the United States has not taken up.

“For our part, we will do everything that serves your interests and the interests of all the peoples of the region to ensure that peace is achieved as quickly as possible,” Putin told Araghchi, according to Russian state media.

“Last week I received a message from Iran’s Supreme Leader. I would like to ask you to convey my most sincere thanks for this and to confirm that Russia, like Iran, intends to continue our strategic relationship,” Putin added.

Iran last year sealed a 20-year strategic partnership agreement with Moscow, Russia is building two new nuclear units at Bushehr, the site of Iran’s only nuclear power plant, and Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drones for ⁠use against Ukraine.

Araghchi said relations between Russia and Iran would continue to strengthen and thanked Putin for Moscow’s support, the state RIA news agency reported.





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French teen faces jail in Singapore for licking vending machine straw

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French teen faces jail in Singapore for licking vending machine straw


Plastic straws are on display in a shop. — Reuters/File
Plastic straws are on display in a shop. — Reuters/File

A French teenager has been charged with mischief and public nuisance in Singapore for licking a straw and putting it back in an orange juice vending machine, court documents showed Monday.

Didier Gaspard Owen Maximilien, 18, allegedly filmed himself “licking a straw and placing it back at the vending machine”, uploaded the video on Instagram knowing that it “would or would probably cause annoyance to the public”, according to the documents.

The teenager is studying in Singapore, according to court records.

The public nuisance offence carries a jail term of up to three months and a fine.

A second charge of committing mischief said Maximilien knew that he was “likely to cause wrongful loss or damage” to iJooz, the company operating the vending machine which had to replace all 500 straws in the dispenser.

The mischief offence carries a punishment of up to two years in jail on conviction and a fine, according to the charge sheet.

Both offences were allegedly committed on March 12.

The charges were lodged before a district court last Friday, and the next hearing will be on May 22.

The Straits Times newspaper said the video “quickly went viral, sparking shock and concern among netizens”.





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