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Has the Iran war changed the Gulf forever?

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Has the Iran war changed the Gulf forever?


Smoke rises in the sky after blasts were heard in Manama, Bahrain on February 28, 2026. — Reuters
Smoke rises in the sky after blasts were heard in Manama, Bahrain on February 28, 2026. — Reuters

Members of the Reuters Gulf team, like so many of our neighbours in the region, have huddled in stairwells and windowless bathrooms, listening to volleys of missiles being intercepted above our homes while trying to soothe frightened kids and field messages of concern from abroad.

We have become newly alert to where a window might blow in, how to track down difficult-to-find supplies of basics like chicken or bananas and how every rumble, even a neighbour closing a cupboard, can send the heart racing.

Across a region whose newly treacherous airspace is closed and where the only viable escape route is a long cross-desert drive through territory under Iranian attack, we’re all weighing the same impossible questions: stay or go, and how?

Federico Maccioni, a member of Reuters’ finance team in Dubai, said that for the first time, he perceived a hint of doubt about what lies ahead for the city. Still, Rachna Uppal, the news agency’s Abu Dhabi-based chief economics correspondent, said she was struck by how normal life continued, with people shopping, attending dental appointments, and even jetskiing.

A satellite image shows the Breaker residential tower in Seef, Bahrain on March 2, 2026. — Reuters
A satellite image shows the Breaker residential tower in Seef, Bahrain on March 2, 2026. — Reuters

Meanwhile, as reporters, they’re stretched across the Gulf to make sense of it all. This week in Gulf Currents, Iran’s drones are proving relentless, punching through Gulf defences and striking airports, hotels and data centres.

Tourism is buckling, business hubs are paralysed, and decades of Gulf state-building are suddenly in doubt. This briefing unpacks the economic shock, the strategic stakes and what this war may change forever.

Gulf fundamentals

For decades, the Gulf’s rise rested on two core assumptions, i.e. its cities offered a safe haven in an unstable region and that vast wealth from uninterrupted energy exports would keep flowing. This week’s events have shaken both pillars at once, perhaps irreversibly.

First to falter was the idea of the Gulf as a sanctuary insulated from the region’s violence. Dubai, the flagship embodiment of that promise, was built on the premise that turmoil stopped at its borders. But days of Iranian missile and drone strikes on airports, ports and luxury landmarks punctured that carefully constructed brand.

Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port after an Iranian attack, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, United Arab Emirates on March 1, 2026. — Reuters
Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port after an Iranian attack, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, United Arab Emirates on March 1, 2026. — Reuters 

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed tried to project business-as-usual as he strolled through Dubai Mall on Monday evening, yet outside, flights were grounded, financial markets shut, and jumpy residents queued for supplies, all while deep thuds rolled through the skyscrapers as air defences intercepted barrage after barrage.

The psychological blow raises doubt about whether cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh — the success of which has been built on confidence, mobility, and positive perceptions — can maintain premium appeal when they suddenly prove vulnerable to regional turmoil.

Economic fragility, repercussions

The second rupture is economic, and deeper still.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of QatarEnergy’s vast LNG operations, supplier of a fifth of global LNG and long proud of never missing a shipment, have unleashed a supply shock once considered inconceivable.

Damage caused by an Iranian drone strike on one of the buildings next to the Navy Base Headquarters of US Navy 5th Fleet in Juffair, Bahrain on March 4, 2026. — Reuters
Damage caused by an Iranian drone strike on one of the buildings next to the Navy Base Headquarters of US Navy 5th Fleet in Juffair, Bahrain on March 4, 2026. — Reuters 

Iraq has slashed production; Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude; hundreds of tankers sit idle near the port of Fujairah, which is still burning after an attack, without safe passage. Prices for oil, gas and related commodities have surged.

The Gulf’s ability to bankroll diversification, mega-investments and a generous social contract depends on secure energy exports. That assumption is suddenly fragile.

Some of this damage cannot be undone.

What future holds?

This war has unlocked a larger unknown: what will relations between the Arab Gulf and Iran look like after this?

After years of tentative détente, Gulf Arab states had begun recalibrating ties with Iran, acknowledging geography and mutual interest. That fragile trust has now been ruptured.

Smoke rises after reported Iranian missile attacks, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, as seen from Doha, Qatar on March 1, 2026. — Reuters
Smoke rises after reported Iranian missile attacks, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, as seen from Doha, Qatar on March 1, 2026. — Reuters

The scale of Iran’s attacks has erased the political space Gulf leaders had carved out for dialogue. Having been attacked directly, Gulf capitals must now confront a harder question: even if the fighting stops, can trust in Iran as a neighbour ever be rebuilt, or has the relationship entered a long, hostile freeze?

The implications are profound. The Gulf’s economic model, energy security, and regional diplomacy, long treated as constants, have all been destabilised. Even if the fighting stops soon, the era of hedging with Iran is perhaps over. And a more guarded, security-driven Gulf lies ahead.





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Investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike: sources

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Investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike: sources


Graves are being prepared for the victims following a reported strike on a school in Minab, Iran, March 2, 2026. — Reuters
Graves are being prepared for the victims following a reported strike on a school in Minab, Iran, March 2, 2026. — Reuters
  • Hegseth acknowledges US military was investigating incident.
  • Press Secy Leavitt says Iran continues to targets civilians, children.
  • Rubio says US would not deliberately target a school.

US military investigators believe it is likely that US forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls’ school that killed scores of children on Saturday but have not yet reached a final conclusion or completed their investigation, two US officials told Reuters.

Reuters was unable to determine more details about the investigation, including what evidence ‌contributed to the tentative assessment, what type of munition was used, who was responsible or why the US might have struck the school.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday acknowledged the US military was investigating the incident.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters, did not rule out the possibility that new evidence could emerge that absolves the US of responsibility and points to another responsible party in the incident.

Reuters could not determine how much longer the investigation would last or what evidence US investigators are ⁠seeking before the assessment can be completed.

The White House did not directly comment on the investigation, but press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to Reuters, “While the Department of War is currently investigating this matter, the Iranian regime targets civilians and children, not the United States of America.”

Asked about the incident during a news briefing on Wednesday, Hegseth said: “We’re investigating that. We, of course, never target civilian targets. But we’re taking a ‌look and ⁠investigating that.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Monday that the United States would not deliberately target a school.

“The Department of War would be investigating that if that was our strike, and I would refer your question to them,” Rubio said.

Israeli and US forces have until now divided their attacks in Iran both geographically and by target type, a senior Israeli official and a source with direct knowledge of the joint planning said. While Israel was striking missile ⁠launch sites in western Iran, the United States was attacking such targets, as well as naval ones, in the south.

The UN human rights office, without saying who it believed was responsible for the strike on the school, called on Tuesday for an investigation.

“The onus is on the forces that carried out the attack to investigate ⁠it,” UN human rights office spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani told a press briefing in Geneva.

Images of the girls’ funeral on Tuesday were shown on Iranian state television. Their small coffins were draped with Iranian flags and passed from a truck across a large crowd towards the grave site.

Deliberately attacking ⁠a school, hospital, or any other civilian structure would likely be a war crime under international humanitarian law.

If a US role were to be confirmed, the strike would rank among the worst cases of civilian casualties in decades of U.S. conflicts in the Middle East.





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Trump fires Kristi Noem as homeland secretary after storm over shootings, spending

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Trump fires Kristi Noem as homeland secretary after storm over shootings, spending


US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem attends a House Judiciary Committee hearing on Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security to testify, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on March 4, 2026. — Reuters
US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem attends a House Judiciary Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security” to testify, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on March 4, 2026. — Reuters 

US President Donald Trump fired Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on Thursday after months of controversy, including the fatal shootings of the US citizens by federal officers in Minneapolis and lawmakers’ questions over a $220 million advertising contract.

The Republican president will tap Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin to replace her by the end of the month, he said on his Truth Social platform on Thursday. The appointment would ‌require US Senate confirmation.

Noem, a former governor of South Dakota, became one of Trump’s most high-profile Cabinet secretaries with social media posts that portrayed immigrants in harsh terms, highlighted alleged criminal offences and used vitriolic language.

Her departure, after emerging as the face of an aggressive immigration crackdown that had grown unpopular according to recent polling, could allow Trump to reset his approach on immigration policy, a centrepiece of his agenda.

Shortly after Trump announced Noem’s replacement, she posted on X: “We have made historic accomplishments at the Department of Homeland Security to make America safe again.”

During congressional hearings this week, Democrats and some Republicans criticized Noem for her approach to immigration enforcement and management of her department, including concern over a $220 million advertising campaign that featured Noem heavily and had been awarded to two longtime Republican operatives without a standard bidding process.

Noem’s personal life also came under scrutiny, with a Democratic lawmaker on Wednesday asking ⁠whether she had a sexual relationship with top aide Corey Lewandowski. Both are married.

Noem called the question from US Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove “tabloid garbage.” Lewandowski did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Trump told Reuters on Thursday that he did not sign off on the ad campaign, which prominently featured Noem and included a scene of her on horseback at Mount Rushmore, in her home state of South Dakota.

In one congressional hearing this week, Noem told Republican US Senator John Kennedy that Trump had approved the ad campaign.

First Senate-confirmed cabinet member fired in Trump 2.0

Noem is the first Senate-confirmed member of Trump’s Cabinet to be removed this term. In Trump’s 2017-2021 term in office, 14 confirmed Cabinet appointees, who serve in the line of succession to the presidency, quit or were fired.

Noem faced criticism in January when she quickly accused two US citizens fatally shot by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis of “domestic terrorism.” Videos that emerged after the deaths undercut the assertion by Noem and other Trump officials that the two deceased – Renee Good and Alex Pretti – were violent aggressors.

The public backlash over the deaths led the Trump administration to adopt a more targeted approach on immigration enforcement in Minnesota, after months of sweeps through US cities that sparked violent clashes between federal agents and residents who opposed the crackdown.

Two Trump administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a personnel matter, said the fallout over the fatal shootings, the $220 million contract, the mismanagement of DHS ‌and the allegations ⁠of the affair all contributed to her firing.

Democrats in the US House of Representatives moved to impeach Noem, and at least two Republicans in Congress called for her to lose her job after the shootings in Minnesota.

Trump said on Truth Social that Noem would be appointed envoy to a planned summit in Miami to reinforce his Western Hemisphere policies.

Within minutes of Trump’s post about her replacement, Noem spoke at a law enforcement event in Tennessee for 40 minutes but did not mention her departure.

Noem was aware she would be removed before she spoke at the event, one of the officials and another person familiar with the matter said, both of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity.

They added that Lewandowski was also expected to leave the department. DHS and the White House did not immediately comment ⁠when asked about Lewandowski’s future.

Strong embrace of Trump’s hardline immigration approach

Mullin, who spent a decade in the House of Representatives before becoming a senator in 2023, also supports Trump’s hardline immigration agenda.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Mullin said he had not been expecting the call from Trump. He described Noem as a friend and said he had not had a chance to call her yet.

US Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), tapped by US President Donald Trump to replace US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, speaks to members of the media as he departs the US Capitol after a vote in the US Senate on funding for DHS, in Washington, DC on March 5, 2026. — Reuters
US Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), tapped by US President Donald Trump to replace US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, speaks to members of the media as he departs the US Capitol after a vote in the US Senate on funding for DHS, in Washington, DC on March 5, 2026. — Reuters 

“She was tasked to do a very difficult job,” Mullin told reporters.

Democrats in Congress have blocked funding for DHS since mid-February, saying federal immigration enforcement must be reformed.

Senate ⁠Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said Noem’s firing would not be enough to break the stalemate.

“The problems at ICE transcend any one person,” he told reporters. “The president has to end the violence and rein in ICE.”

Trump’s immigration approach lost popularity as agents detained US citizens and tear-gassed streets in an attempt to drive up deportations, which last year fell short of the administration’s goal of 1 million per year.

While Noem, 54, served as a prominent proponent of Trump’s agenda, White House Deputy Chief of Staff ⁠Stephen Miller, a longtime Trump aide, controls Trump’s immigration policy.

Noem was quickly confirmed to lead the 260,000-employee department in January 2025 after Trump took office. On social media, she referred to immigrants convicted of crimes as “scumbags” even as the number of non-criminals arrested by immigration authorities rose under Trump.

She joined immigration enforcement operations on the ground in New York City and visited a maximum-security prison in El Salvador where Venezuelan immigrants deported by the Trump administration were being held without charges or access to lawyers.





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Nepal counts votes after key post-uprising election

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Nepal counts votes after key post-uprising election


Electoral officials seal a ballot box as voting ends at a polling station during Nepal´s general election in Kathmandu on March 5, 2026. — AFP
Electoral officials seal a ballot box as voting ends at a polling station during Nepal´s general election in Kathmandu on March 5, 2026. — AFP 
  • Poll follows 2025 protests that toppled government.
  • Key contenders include ex-PM, rapper-turned poltician
  • Initial results expected Friday; full tally may take days.

KATHMANDU: Counting was underway in Nepal on Friday, after a high-stakes parliamentary election that could reshape the country’s leadership following 2025 protests that toppled the government.

Key figures vying for power include a Marxist former prime minister seeking a return to office, a rapper-turned-mayor bidding for the youth vote, and the newly elected leader of the powerful Nepali Congress party.

“Counting has begun in most places in a peaceful manner,” Prakash Nyupane, a spokesman for the Election Commission, said Friday.

Some results are expected later Friday, but full nationwide tallies could take several days.

Even then, negotiations to form a government may drag on if — as many analysts predict — no single party secures an outright majority.

Sushila Karki, the interim prime minister, praised the peaceful conduct of a vote she has said was critical in “determining our future”.

Voters have chosen who replaces the interim government in place since the September 2025 uprising, in which at least 77 people were killed, and parliament and scores of government buildings were torched.

Youth-led protests under a loose Gen Z banner began as a demonstration against a brief social media ban, but were fed by wider grievances at corruption and a woeful economy.

“Congratulations to the Nepali people for successfully conducting a historically peaceful election… thereby providing the country with a democratic and constitutional resolution,” Karki said late Thursday after voting ended.

‘Better path’

The polls are one of the most hotly contested elections in the Himalayan republic of 30 million people since the end of a civil war in 2006.

The challenge that Karki — a 73-year-old former chief justice who reluctantly left retirement to lead the nation — now faces will be managing the reaction to the results.

Thousands of soldiers and police have been deployed.

Many are watching results in the single constituency of Jhapa-5, a usually sleepy eastern district, where two key prime ministerial hopefuls went head-to-head.

KP Sharma Oli, the 74-year-old Marxist leader ousted as prime minister last year and seeking a return to power, was challenged by former Kathmandu mayor Balendra Shah, a 35-year-old rapper-turned-politician.

Shah, from the centrist Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), snappily dressed in a black suit and sunglasses, has cast himself as a symbol of youth-driven political change.

Also in the race as aspiring prime minister is Gagan Thapa, 49, the new head of the country’s oldest party, Nepali Congress, who has said he wants to end the “old age” club of revolving veteran leaders.

More than 3,400 candidates ran for 165 seats in direct elections to the 275-member House of Representatives, the lower chamber of parliament, with 110 more chosen via party lists. Turnout was 59 percent.

Mira Ranjit, 49, who voted in the capital, Kathmandu, clapped as ballot boxes were collected under heavy guard and taken to counting centres late on Thursday.

“A new leader should emerge who can guide our country and show a better path for the nation, so that the Gen Z protest achieves its goal,” she said.

“We don’t need anything more than this. Many mothers lost their children, and their demands should be fulfilled.”





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