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Has the Iran war changed the Gulf forever?

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Has the Iran war changed the Gulf forever?


Smoke rises in the sky after blasts were heard in Manama, Bahrain on February 28, 2026. — Reuters
Smoke rises in the sky after blasts were heard in Manama, Bahrain on February 28, 2026. — Reuters

Members of the Reuters Gulf team, like so many of our neighbours in the region, have huddled in stairwells and windowless bathrooms, listening to volleys of missiles being intercepted above our homes while trying to soothe frightened kids and field messages of concern from abroad.

We have become newly alert to where a window might blow in, how to track down difficult-to-find supplies of basics like chicken or bananas and how every rumble, even a neighbour closing a cupboard, can send the heart racing.

Across a region whose newly treacherous airspace is closed and where the only viable escape route is a long cross-desert drive through territory under Iranian attack, we’re all weighing the same impossible questions: stay or go, and how?

Federico Maccioni, a member of Reuters’ finance team in Dubai, said that for the first time, he perceived a hint of doubt about what lies ahead for the city. Still, Rachna Uppal, the news agency’s Abu Dhabi-based chief economics correspondent, said she was struck by how normal life continued, with people shopping, attending dental appointments, and even jetskiing.

A satellite image shows the Breaker residential tower in Seef, Bahrain on March 2, 2026. — Reuters
A satellite image shows the Breaker residential tower in Seef, Bahrain on March 2, 2026. — Reuters

Meanwhile, as reporters, they’re stretched across the Gulf to make sense of it all. This week in Gulf Currents, Iran’s drones are proving relentless, punching through Gulf defences and striking airports, hotels and data centres.

Tourism is buckling, business hubs are paralysed, and decades of Gulf state-building are suddenly in doubt. This briefing unpacks the economic shock, the strategic stakes and what this war may change forever.

Gulf fundamentals

For decades, the Gulf’s rise rested on two core assumptions, i.e. its cities offered a safe haven in an unstable region and that vast wealth from uninterrupted energy exports would keep flowing. This week’s events have shaken both pillars at once, perhaps irreversibly.

First to falter was the idea of the Gulf as a sanctuary insulated from the region’s violence. Dubai, the flagship embodiment of that promise, was built on the premise that turmoil stopped at its borders. But days of Iranian missile and drone strikes on airports, ports and luxury landmarks punctured that carefully constructed brand.

Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port after an Iranian attack, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, United Arab Emirates on March 1, 2026. — Reuters
Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port after an Iranian attack, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, United Arab Emirates on March 1, 2026. — Reuters 

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed tried to project business-as-usual as he strolled through Dubai Mall on Monday evening, yet outside, flights were grounded, financial markets shut, and jumpy residents queued for supplies, all while deep thuds rolled through the skyscrapers as air defences intercepted barrage after barrage.

The psychological blow raises doubt about whether cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh — the success of which has been built on confidence, mobility, and positive perceptions — can maintain premium appeal when they suddenly prove vulnerable to regional turmoil.

Economic fragility, repercussions

The second rupture is economic, and deeper still.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of QatarEnergy’s vast LNG operations, supplier of a fifth of global LNG and long proud of never missing a shipment, have unleashed a supply shock once considered inconceivable.

Damage caused by an Iranian drone strike on one of the buildings next to the Navy Base Headquarters of US Navy 5th Fleet in Juffair, Bahrain on March 4, 2026. — Reuters
Damage caused by an Iranian drone strike on one of the buildings next to the Navy Base Headquarters of US Navy 5th Fleet in Juffair, Bahrain on March 4, 2026. — Reuters 

Iraq has slashed production; Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude; hundreds of tankers sit idle near the port of Fujairah, which is still burning after an attack, without safe passage. Prices for oil, gas and related commodities have surged.

The Gulf’s ability to bankroll diversification, mega-investments and a generous social contract depends on secure energy exports. That assumption is suddenly fragile.

Some of this damage cannot be undone.

What future holds?

This war has unlocked a larger unknown: what will relations between the Arab Gulf and Iran look like after this?

After years of tentative détente, Gulf Arab states had begun recalibrating ties with Iran, acknowledging geography and mutual interest. That fragile trust has now been ruptured.

Smoke rises after reported Iranian missile attacks, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, as seen from Doha, Qatar on March 1, 2026. — Reuters
Smoke rises after reported Iranian missile attacks, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, as seen from Doha, Qatar on March 1, 2026. — Reuters

The scale of Iran’s attacks has erased the political space Gulf leaders had carved out for dialogue. Having been attacked directly, Gulf capitals must now confront a harder question: even if the fighting stops, can trust in Iran as a neighbour ever be rebuilt, or has the relationship entered a long, hostile freeze?

The implications are profound. The Gulf’s economic model, energy security, and regional diplomacy, long treated as constants, have all been destabilised. Even if the fighting stops soon, the era of hedging with Iran is perhaps over. And a more guarded, security-driven Gulf lies ahead.





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Hegseth warns Iran miscalculating US ability to sustain war

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Hegseth warns Iran miscalculating US ability to sustain war


US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speaks about the joint security agreement at the inaugural Americas Counter Cartel Conference with regional defense and security leaders at US Southern Command headquarters in Doral, Florida, US, March 5, 2026. — Reuters
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speaks about the joint security agreement at the inaugural Americas Counter Cartel Conference with regional defense and security leaders at US Southern Command headquarters in Doral, Florida, US, March 5, 2026. — Reuters
  • Pentagon chief warns Iran miscalculating US ability to sustain the war.
  • Says US campaign targets Iranian missiles, missile production and navy.
  • Says Iran making ‘bad calculation’ believing US can’t sustain war.

TAMPA: TAMPA: US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warned on Thursday that Iran was making a serious miscalculation if it believed the United States could not sustain the ongoing war, stressing that Washington had the resources and resolve to continue the military campaign for as long as necessary.

The Pentagon earlier this week said the military campaign, known as Operation Epic Fury, is focused on destroying Iran’s offensive missiles, missile production and navy, while not allowing Tehran to have a nuclear weapon.

“There’s no expansion in our objectives. We know exactly what we’re trying to achieve,” Hegseth said.

He added that Trump was “having a heck of a say in who runs Iran given the ongoing operation.”

In a telephone interview with Reuters on Thursday, Trump said the United States would have to help pick the next person to lead the country.

The US and Israeli military campaign that started on Saturday has hit targets across the country and triggered Iranian retaliatory strikes in the region as Tehran seeks to impose a high cost on the United States, Israel and their allies.

Iran has attacked countries including Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Fire crews in Bahrain extinguished a blaze at a refinery following a missile strike.

Azerbaijan became the latest country drawn in, as it accused Iran of firing drones at its territory and ordered its southern airspace closed for 12 hours.

Hegseth said by striking countries in the region, Iran would only bring them closer to the United States.

“It’s actually firming up the unity of the resistance in order to focus exactly where we need to,” Hegseth said.

Next phase of operations

The United States has hit more than 2,000 targets in Iran, including Iranian warships.

Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, said US forces had destroyed 30 Iranian warships, including an Iranian drone carrier ship earlier on Thursday.

Cooper said the United States was hitting Iran’s ability to rebuild.

“As we transition to the next phase of this operation, we will systematically dismantle Iran’s missile production capability for the future, and that’s absolutely in progress,” Cooper said, adding that it would take some time.

The US military has identified the six US Army Reserve soldiers killed when a drone slammed into a US military facility in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait.

Trump and other senior officials have warned the Iran conflict will result in more US military deaths.

Hegseth, during the press conference, said Iran was making a mistake if it believed that the United States could not sustain the ongoing war, adding that Washington had just begun to fight.

“Iran is hoping that we cannot sustain this, which is a really bad miscalculation,” Hegseth said. “We set the timeline.”





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US Senate backs Trump’s Iran operations after House vote

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US Senate backs Trump’s Iran operations after House vote


The US Capitol is seen as Congress continues work on passing a $1.66 trillion government funding bill in Washington, US, December 21, 2022.  — Reuters
The US Capitol is seen as Congress continues work on passing a $1.66 trillion government funding bill in Washington, US, December 21, 2022.  — Reuters

WASHINGTON: The US House of Representatives rejected an effort on Thursday to stop President Donald Trump’s air war on Iran and require that any hostilities against Iran be authorised by Congress, backing the Republican president’s military campaign on the sixth day of the expanding conflict.

The vote was 219 to 212, largely along party lines, in the House, where Trump’s fellow Republicans control a narrow majority of seats. Two Republicans voted in favour of the resolution and four Democrats voted against it.

Opponents accused Democrats of taking the issue to a vote only because they oppose Trump, putting Americans at increased risk.

“We all know that we wouldn’t be here today if the president’s name wasn’t Donald Trump,” Representative Rick Crawford of Arizona, the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said during debate on Wednesday.

Sponsors of the resolution described it as a bid to take back Congress’ responsibility to authorise war, as spelled out in the US Constitution.

The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Saturday, a conflict that has killed more than 1,000 people, including at least six US service members, and caused damage and instability throughout the Middle East.

Supporters said the resolution, by requiring Trump to come to Congress for a war authorisation, would force him to explain to Americans why the US is fighting and how it might end.

“This is a war of choice, launched by this administration without authorisation, without clearly stated objectives or a defined endgame, and without explaining how they intend to keep Americans safe,” said Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee.

Approval would not have stopped Iran air war

Just before the resolution vote, House members from both parties overwhelmingly passed a measure “Reaffirming Iran remains the largest state sponsor of terrorism.”

The vote would not have stopped the conflict even if the House had voted yes.

To go into effect, the resolution would also have had to pass the Senate and garner the two-thirds majorities needed to override Trump’s expected veto.

The Senate, also narrowly controlled by Trump’s party, backed his military campaign against Iran in a vote on Wednesday, voting to block a bipartisan resolution similar to the measure passed by the House. The votes this week are not the end of the matter. The War Powers Resolution of 1973, which provides for votes on the resolutions, says a president can only involve the military in an armed conflict when Congress has declared war or provided specific authority or in response to an attack.

Trump and his Republicans have argued that Iran posed an “imminent threat” so that his actions were legal under that law.

However, the War Powers measure also requires unauthorised military actions to be terminated within 60 days, giving the Trump administration a deadline at the end of April to seek Congress’ approval.





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US-Israel attack on a premier Tehran hospital targeted newborns, destroyed IVF center

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US-Israel attack on a premier Tehran hospital targeted newborns, destroyed IVF center



The air at the bombed-out Tehran hospital room hung thick with dust and the metallic tang of recent destruction carried out by the United States and the Israeli regime.

Against a backdrop of shattered concrete, two newborns clung precariously to life. Their breaths were being measured by the rhythmic beep of monitors connected by vital wires.

Amid the dust-choked room following the dastardly US-Israeli aggression, Iranian Red Crescent personnel worked to sever the fragile connection to the damaged infrastructure, to take the infants out of the wreckage.

The Gandhi Hospital in central Tehran, along with a nearby residential building, sustained catastrophic damage from strikes carried out by the United States and Israel late Sunday night, a day after the aggression was launched without provocation.

Immediately following the attack, harrowing footage depicted medical personnel urgently transferring the tiny newborns from their compromised incubators to ambulances.

Hope for new life, IVF centre targeted

The tragedy deepened with confirmation from hospital authorities later about the massive damage incurred by a specialized IVF center there, which lay in ruins.

The IVF centre was a sanctuary where hundreds of hopeful couples had invested their futures, their deepest desires for parenthood.

The US-Israeli aggression destroyed their dreams for future generations that had been painstakingly planned.

“The ledger of violated human rights in this war will be written in blood and shame,” Hossein Kermanpour, Health Ministry spokesman, wrote in a post on his X account.

“For the first time in my life, I am witnessing something I never even saw during the Iran-Iraq War. Patients being carried in their caregivers’ arms, fleeing into smoke-filled streets after missiles exploded beside their hospital,” Kermanpour added.

The assault was not limited to Gandhi Hospital. Reports confirmed that Khatam al-Anbiya Hospital and Motahari Hospital were also directly targeted in Tehran.

Furthermore, several missiles struck near Abuzar Hospital in the southern city of Ahvaz, forcing the immediate evacuation of 21 patients, including those in intensive care, requiring 30 ambulances to reroute them to other centers.

Images from Ahvaz captured the evacuation under dire circumstances. Emergency personnel were moving the sick through the thick plumes of smoke while the terrifying sounds of aerial bombardment still echoed overhead.

The American and Israeli regimes also targeted three emergency medical bases in Sarab, Chabahar, and Hamedan following the Abuzar attack.

A member of the Iranian Parliament said five hospitals and medical centers have been damaged or destroyed during the US-Israeli terrorist attacks on the Islamic Republic.

“Unfortunately, this illegal act of aggression resulted not only in the destruction of the buildings of hospitals and medical centers but also the injury of a number of students and local residents,” Fatemeh Mohammad Beigi, a member of the Parliament’s Health and Treatment Commission, said in a statement on Monday.

She added that a number of these medical centers have been evacuated in fear of more attacks.

Assault on life itself

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced the US-Israeli strikes on civilian infrastructure, stating that the attacks on medical facilities “affect life itself and assaults on educational centers jeopardize the future of a nation.”

He made this reference following a US-Israeli strike on an elementary school in the southern Hormozgan Province that killed 171 girls.

He added that “targeting patients and children blatantly violates humanitarian principles.”

The Iranian president called upon the international community to censure the atrocities.

The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, expressed extreme concern over the damage to Gandhi Hospital in Tehran.

Following the bombing, he posted on X, stating, “Reports of Tehran’s Gandhi Hospital being damaged during today’s bombardment of the Iranian capital are extremely worrying.”

Ghebreyesus reiterated that “all efforts must be taken to prevent health facilities from being caught up in the ongoing conflict,” emphasizing that “Health facilities are protected under international humanitarian law” with the hashtag “#healthisnotatarget.”

Strike on hospitals, a pattern

However, this event is part of a disturbing pattern. This is not the first time Israel has attacked medical facilities in the Islamic Republic. During the 12-day military aggression in June, nearly a dozen hospitals were targeted in clear violation of international conventions.

The Geneva Conventions, long considered the bedrock of humanitarian protection in wartime, have been repeatedly flouted by both the US and Israel.

In Gaza, an entire health system has been systematically crippled, and doctors have been killed while on duty since the genocidal war was launched in October 2023.

According to chilling WHO figures, 94 percent of hospitals in Gaza were destroyed by Israel during its two-year-long genocide.



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