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The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 1

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The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 1


Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Eagles.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Report, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.



All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)


TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI


Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23

Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka

Shadow Report: Expect A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s top corner shadowed most weeks last season, including a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a strong 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets in the game. Evans was out for the Week 8 meeting between the teams, but Terrell also shadowed him in Week 5 back in 2022 (where Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), as well as in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.

Some quick math shows that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG in the four meetings with Terrell, having reached 20 points twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan both out, Evans will be Mayfield’s top target and Terrell hasn’t been much of a detriment to his success. Evans should be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie running mate Egbuka should also be in lineups.

Over/under: 49.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 64% (7th highest)


Projected score: Bengals 27, Browns 20

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has yet to sign with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford played six full games as the team’s lead back last season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy points. He was also the team’s lead back for most of 2023 and finished 16th in RB fantasy points (25th in PPG) while piling up 1,132 yards and nine TDs. It’s yet to be seen how much Sampson will contribute, but Ford is safe to view as a RB2/flex option this week against a suspect Bengals defense.

Over/under: 47 (6th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 73% (3rd highest)


Projected score: Colts 23, Dolphins 22

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Shadow Report: Free agency and injuries have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, recently signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. as the probable Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a fast start with Daniel Jones under center. Upgrade the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren also makes for a fine starting option in his NFL debut.

Over/under: 44.8 (9th highest)
Win probability: Colts 55% (14th highest)


Projected score: Patriots 25, Raiders 19

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers

Shadow Report: Stefon Diggs is a bit risky as he makes his New England debut while returning from last season’s torn ACL. The good news is that he has an appealing Week 1 matchup at home against a suspect Raiders cornerbacks room. Ex-Packer Eric Stokes will be joined on the perimeter by third-round rookie Darien Porter and slot man Darnay Holmes. Diggs and fellow starting WRs DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte can be upgraded.

Over/under: 44.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 69% (4th highest)


Projected score: Cardinals 24, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round pick — appeared in seven games as a rookie and did not show particularly well. He completed 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and managed four TDs and five INTs. Especially against an improved Arizona defense, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ pass catchers very risky fantasy plays. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on five career targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) are no better than flex options in deeper leagues.

Over/under: 42.1 (15th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 68% (6th highest)


Projected score: Steelers 20, Jets 18



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10 of the top women’s transfers: Yohannes, Thompson, Clinton, more

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10 of the top women’s transfers: Yohannes, Thompson, Clinton, more


The women’s transfer window is closed until January and there have been some big moves this summer. As if one world record wasn’t enough when Olivia Smith went to Arsenal for $1.4 million, we saw London City Lionesses land midfielder Grace Geyoro from Paris Saint-Germain for $1.9m on Women’s Super League (WSL) deadline day.

Alyssa Thompson‘s $1.5m move from Angel City FC to Chelsea was also huge, but clubs didn’t always need to spend a lot of money to get themselves a good deal.

At the end of June, we looked at some of the best transfers so far and we already covered Smith’s transfer in detail in July. So here is another look at the best of the rest.

Lily Yohannes, CM, Ajax to OL Lyonnes

Yohannes has been one of the most sought after talents in women’s football since bursting on to the scene at Ajax as a 16-year-old in November 2023, becoming the youngest player ever to start a UEFA Women’s Champions League group stage match.

Despite offers from multiple clubs, including Chelsea, the United States star decided to join French champions OL Lyonnes for a fee of around €450k ($526k) and she will add midfield depth for Jonathan Giraldez’s side as the eight-time UWCL champions attempt to get back to the top of the European game.

– Keogh: Chelsea, LCL, Arsenal, win window; Man United biggest losers
– Transfer grades: Chelsea get an A for Thompson deal; C for Angel City
Women’s world transfer record history: Geyoro’s $1.9m overtakes Ovalle

Yohannes is a technically gifted midfielder, blessed with excellent vision and variety in her passing. She likes to go high risk/high reward, frequently disrupting the opposition’s shape, and a standout quality is the release time on her passes. Her calculated touches and dynamic positioning allow her time to choose an option, and she consistently makes herself available to receive the ball during progression phases.

Without the ball, Yohannes is good at pressing high up the pitch, though she is still in the early stages of her physical development, which puts her at slight disadvantage in duels. While her off-the-ball positioning is decent, she also has a tendency to drift in and out of games and is susceptible to concentration lapses. But OL Lyonnes have got themselves one of the best young players in the world.

Alyssa Thompson, FW, Angel City FC to Chelsea

The USWNT winger completed her move on WSL deadline day for an initial fee of $1.5m, and sources told ESPN it could reach $2m with add-ons.

Thompson, 20, had eight goal contributions in 16 appearances in the NWSL this season and is capable of playing on both flanks, as she can attack on either side of her opponent. While primarily right footed, she is adept at getting shots off with both feet and has a great change of direction, plus acceleration, making her unpredictable with the ball at her feet.

While her goal-scoring output isn’t in the elite tier yet, Thompson has started to shoot more frequently and receive possession in more advanced areas this season. Her ball carrying, chance creation and versatility adds a lot of value for Chelsea — she has ranked sixth for carries into penalty area (29) and seventh for progressive carries (52) in the NWSL this season.

With Mayra Ramírez and Lauren James set to miss the start of the season due to injury, and Sam Kerr only just returning from a lengthy injury layoff herself, Thompson adds depth and goal threat for the Blues in a much-needed area.

Rasheedat Ajibade, FW, Atlético Madrid to Paris Saint-Germain

PSG have lost quite a bit of talent this summer, some to direct rivals OL Lyonnes. However, they added the 2025 WAFCON Player of the Tournament, and Nigeria captain, to their ranks. The 25-year-old joined from Atlético Madrid after finishing as their top goal scorer last season, while also putting in 36 goal contributions (26 goals and 10 assists) in 80 league appearances across the last three seasons.

Ajibade is an explosive right-footed winger; an excellent progressive outlet (as the graphic above shows), capable of carrying the ball forward. Indeed, she was ranked in the top 10 in Liga F for most progressive passes received last season (35% of total passes she received last season were progressive), averaged the fifth-most progressive carries per 100 open-play touches, and her 83 attempted dribbles were the fourth most by any player.

With her ability to cause danger in transition, Ajibade will be a talismanic figure for PSG, much like Tabitha Chawinga was when she moved to OL Lyonnes a couple of seasons ago.

Grace Clinton, CM, Man United to Man City

Clinton moved from one side of Manchester to the other — with England teammate Jess Park also swapping rival clubs — having scored eight goals in 21 appearances for United last season in the WSL.

The 22-year-old midfielder has good line-breaking ability and uses her strong frame to her advantage. She is excellent beating players in midfield to create space for herself and no player attempted more take-ons in the WSL last season (72). Her eight through balls were also the most by any player.

One of Clinton’s best attributes is her ability to get into the box from midfield; she makes late runs to bypass her marker and attack cutbacks and crosses, scoring a good proportion of her goals in this fashion. She will certainly add attacking threat for City and, playing alongside maestro Yui Hasegawa, will be allowed to roam forward and find the runs of her teammates in behind the defense.

Grace Geyoro, CM, Paris Saint-Germain to London City Lionesses

London City Lionesses pulled off a coup on WSL deadline day to land Geyoro from PSG for a world-record fee of $1.9m.

Geyoro, 28, has spent her entire career at PSG, playing 250+ games for the club, and is capable of contributing in every phase of play as she has marshalled their midfield in different roles, playing as a ball-playing defensive midfielder, a box-to-box midfielder, or even as an advanced No. 8.

One of the finest press-breaking midfielders in women’s football, her ability to maneuver away from danger and consistently move the ball forward is exceptional, while she ranked fifth for progressive passes in the French Première Ligue last season (121).

Geyoro will reunite with her former PSG manager Jocelyn Prêcheur and will help with the wealthy London club’s ambitions of finishing in the upper half of the table in their first season in top flight.

Julia Zigiotti Olme, CM, Bayern Munich to Man United

Sweden‘s semifinal run at Euro 2025 proved to be a crowning moment for Zigiotti Olme, as her performances in midfield earned her a move to United this summer.

The 27-year-old, who was at Brighton between 2022-2024, is a robust ball winner and provides an excellent screen in front of her defense. Her on-ball qualities are geared towards ball circulation and retention primarily, while she isn’t afraid of diving into well-timed challenges and duels when out of possession. Her nine attempted tackles in the middle third was the fourth-most by any player in that region at Euro 2025, while only Italy‘s Cristiana Girelli (19) and England‘s Lucy Bronze (18) won more aerial duels than her (13).

Zigiotti Olme will adapt quickly to the WSL, having only recently left, and will add a bite to United’s midfield alongside Hinata Miyazawa and Ella Toone, with her presence enabling her teammates to take up more attacking positions.

Lia Wälti, CM, Arsenal to Juventus

Juventus quietly pulled off one of the best transfers this summer as they landed Wälti for nothing after seven years with Arsenal.

The 32-year-old is one of the most technically gifted midfielders in women’s football and is as two-footed as they come, with her excellent vision and passing helping to break defensive lines. Her ability to find solutions when in possession is elite, as she constantly spots and creates passing options, and her defensive output is impressive too. Indeed, she offers an excellent screening presence in front of the defense and has incredible game awareness, allowing her to disrupt opposition attacks and recover possession via duels and fine positioning.

Injuries have been a concern in recent seasons, as she only started 10 WSL games and played just 50.5% of the total minutes in the available last season, her lowest share since she arrived at the club in 2018. But her move could have a big impact on Juve if she can stay fit.

Sophia Kleinherne, CB, Eintracht Frankfurt to Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg let go of 10 players this summer, including the likes of Jule Brand and Sveindis Jonsdottir, but replaced them with 11 incoming players, including one of Germany‘s most promising center backs in Kleinherne. (Though she will miss the start of the season due to a muscle injury picked up during the Euro 2025.)

The 25-year-old defender, who played 153 league games for Frankfurt, has tremendous quality on and off the ball, with an excellent range in her distribution — she had the second-best passing accuracy (92.9%) in the Frauen-Bundesliga, and played the second-most passes into the final third (131).

Kleinherne is also excellent in one-vs.one situations and loves to go into challenges; she had a tackle success rate of 79% last season, winning 30 of her 38 attempts, and should provide a defensive boost for Wolfsburg when she returns to fitness.

Sara Holmgaard, LB, Everton to Real Madrid

Real Madrid lost their captain and starting left back, Olga Carmona, to PSG this summer, but filled that hole with one of the best available options on the market.

The Denmark international was arguably the best left back in the WSL last season and ranked in the top 10 for tackles won (successful from 40 of her 60 attempts). She is excellent at reading the opposition’s movements and winning challenges in one-vs.one situations, while her recovery pace allows her to get her team out of danger.

Holmgaard, 25, is able to deliver a fine cross, with good weight and timing, and her 78 crosses in the WSL were the fourth most across last season. She is proactive with her positioning and runs in possession, often marauding forward and attacking the box, so her relationship with striker and international teammate Signe Bruun in the final third could be decisive in Madrid’s season.

Jade Rose, CB, Harvard University to Manchester City

City replaced the outgoing Laia Aleixandri with Canada international Rose, who was voted “Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year” after her Sophomore year and joins on a four-year deal.

The 22-year-old is 5-foot-10, an aggressive defender and a towering presence in duels. She is also a threat from attacking set-pieces thanks to her height, but is good on the ball too and capable of carrying it forward and distributing over medium ranges.

Rose has been named Canada’s Young Player of the Year three times and already has 32 appearances for the senior side. There is room for improvement on her first touch and body shape when picking up the ball, but she looks set to complement Alex Greenwood in central defense and has the potential to be a breakout star in the WSL this season.



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Novak Djokovic, in defeat, has never been so lovable

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The U.S. Open crowd finally gave the Serb what he has long sought in a straight-sets semifinal loss to Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz will meet Jannik Sinner in Sunday’s final.



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Penn State setter steps away for mental health

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Penn State setter steps away for mental health


Penn State sophomore setter Izzy Starck, who led the Nittany Lions to their eighth volleyball national championship in 2024, announced Friday that she is stepping away from the game for the rest of the season to prioritize her mental health.

“Over the past several months, I’ve been facing challenges that have taken a toll on me mentally and emotionally,” her Instagram post read. “I recognize that I need to take a step back and focus on getting the help and care I need at this time.”

In a statement sent to ESPN, the Nittany Lions said, “We fully support Izzy in taking this important and difficult step, and kindly ask that her privacy be respected during this time.”

Starck started the first four games of the season for No. 5 Penn State and had 170 assists and 50 digs in 17 sets. The Nittany Lions (2-3) were swept by No. 4 Kentucky (2-1) on Friday night in Penn State’s home opener. Graduate student Addie Lyon, a transfer from Saint Louis, started in Starck’s place.

Starck was named the AVCA national freshman of the year and the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2024. She started all 37 matches for the Nittany Lions and had 1,483 assists, the most in program history in the rally-scoring era.

“This is not goodbye forever, it’s simply a pause to focus on healing and growth,” her Instagram post read.





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