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The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 1

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The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 1


Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Eagles.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Report, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.



All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)


TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI


Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23

Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka

Shadow Report: Expect A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s top corner shadowed most weeks last season, including a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a strong 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets in the game. Evans was out for the Week 8 meeting between the teams, but Terrell also shadowed him in Week 5 back in 2022 (where Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), as well as in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.

Some quick math shows that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG in the four meetings with Terrell, having reached 20 points twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan both out, Evans will be Mayfield’s top target and Terrell hasn’t been much of a detriment to his success. Evans should be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie running mate Egbuka should also be in lineups.

Over/under: 49.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 64% (7th highest)


Projected score: Bengals 27, Browns 20

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has yet to sign with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford played six full games as the team’s lead back last season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy points. He was also the team’s lead back for most of 2023 and finished 16th in RB fantasy points (25th in PPG) while piling up 1,132 yards and nine TDs. It’s yet to be seen how much Sampson will contribute, but Ford is safe to view as a RB2/flex option this week against a suspect Bengals defense.

Over/under: 47 (6th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 73% (3rd highest)


Projected score: Colts 23, Dolphins 22

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Shadow Report: Free agency and injuries have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, recently signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. as the probable Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a fast start with Daniel Jones under center. Upgrade the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren also makes for a fine starting option in his NFL debut.

Over/under: 44.8 (9th highest)
Win probability: Colts 55% (14th highest)


Projected score: Patriots 25, Raiders 19

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers

Shadow Report: Stefon Diggs is a bit risky as he makes his New England debut while returning from last season’s torn ACL. The good news is that he has an appealing Week 1 matchup at home against a suspect Raiders cornerbacks room. Ex-Packer Eric Stokes will be joined on the perimeter by third-round rookie Darien Porter and slot man Darnay Holmes. Diggs and fellow starting WRs DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte can be upgraded.

Over/under: 44.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 69% (4th highest)


Projected score: Cardinals 24, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round pick — appeared in seven games as a rookie and did not show particularly well. He completed 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and managed four TDs and five INTs. Especially against an improved Arizona defense, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ pass catchers very risky fantasy plays. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on five career targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) are no better than flex options in deeper leagues.

Over/under: 42.1 (15th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 68% (6th highest)


Projected score: Steelers 20, Jets 18



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LeBron James earns record-extending 22nd NBA All-Star Game nod

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LeBron James earns record-extending 22nd NBA All-Star Game nod


NEW YORK — For a 22nd straight year, LeBron James is an All-Star.

The NBA announced its reserves for the Feb. 15 midseason showcase Sunday night on NBC before James and his Los Angeles Lakers faced the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Voting was conducted by the league’s coaches over the past week.

James, 41, was the last player announced, as the league’s oldest player extended his record for both overall and consecutive selections by another season.

“Super humbling,” James said Sunday night, after the Lakers lost to the Knicks 112-100. “The coaches voted, right, so mad respect to the coaches and them seeing the way I’m still playing at this latter stage of my career.

“And to be able to be an All-Star means a lot to my family, people that have been following my career, my LeBron faithful. They’ve been following my journey and it’s always rewarding just from a humbling standpoint to be able to be rewarded for what you put your work into.”

James did not play in last season’s All-Star event because of injury.

“You think about a star player, their prime is their All-NBA, All-Star years,” Lakers coach JJ Redick said. “And you know, he’s basically had a 20-plus-year prime. It’s kind of unheard of. It is unheard of, uncharted, whatever you want to call it. I mean, it’s incredible. It’s a testament to the work that he puts in.”

James was joined on the court Sunday by three other All-Stars: starters Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson, and fellow reserve selection Karl-Anthony Towns.

“Of course he deserves it,” teammate Doncic said of James. “He’s playing at a top level still at that age. It’s incredible to share the floor with him.”

The reserves named with James were led by Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant, whose 16th All-Star selection is fourth most of all time — breaking a tie with Hall of Famers Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett and putting him behind only Kobe Bryant (18), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (19) and James.

Joining James and Durant as Western Conference reserve selections included a trio of first-time participants — Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren and Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija — plus Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (fourth) and Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (fifth).

“Multiple 50-point games, multiple 50-point games in the playoffs, let’s see, triple-double in the finals, NBA champion, most wins in the West over the last 10 years, he’s the point guard of that team … in my mind, all those things make sense, except for the one that was missing,” Nuggets coach David Adelman said of Murray.

In the Eastern Conference, Towns — making his sixth All-Star team — was joined by Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (seventh), Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (fourth), Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (second) and a trio of first-time picks: Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren, Miami Heat guard Norman Powell and Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson.

“I believe that he deserves it, and I think probably one of the best compliments you can give him is the fact that he starred in all of his roles that he’s had in his career, and he just continues to get better,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said of Powell. “He’s having his best years now after the age of 30.”

Under the NBA’s latest format change for the event — U.S. vs. the World — the 24 All-Star participants will be divided into three eight-player rosters — two featuring Americans, with the third made up of international players. They will each play two 12-minute games, with the two teams with the best record — or the two with the best point differential if they all go 1-1 — facing each other in the championship game.

The All-Star Game will take place at the LA Clippers‘ arena (Intuit Dome) in Inglewood, California. The Clippers were notably absent from Sunday’s announcement; despite going 16-4 over their past 20 games to partially erase a brutal start to the season, the team didn’t have any of its players selected for this year’s event.

Either Clippers star Kawhi Leonard — who since Dec. 20 has led the league in scoring and steals — or Rockets center Alperen Sengun is probably the best candidate to replace Milwaukee‘s Giannis Antetokounmpo, who will sit out the game because of a calf injury. NBA commissioner Adam Silver will pick a replacement for Antetokounmpo, plus any additional players should the need arise.

Other players chosen last month as starters were: Boston‘s Jaylen Brown, Detroit’s Cade Cunningham, Philadelphia‘s Tyrese Maxey, Golden State‘s Stephen Curry, Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Denver’s Nikola Jokic and San Antonio‘s Victor Wembanyama.

Detroit’s J.B. Bickerstaff will coach one of the All-Star teams. Either San Antonio’s Mitch Johnson or Adelman will coach another — that will be decided by results of games Sunday — and the NBA has not announced how the coach of the third team will be decided.

Bickerstaff earned his nod because the Pistons lead the Eastern Conference. Johnson or Adelman will go by having the best record in the Western Conference among eligible coaches; Oklahoma City’s Mark Daigneault coaches the team with the West’s best record, but he cannot coach the All-Star Game this year because he coached at the event last season.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.



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2026 NBA All-Star: Biggest surprises and snubs as full rosters revealed

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2026 NBA All-Star: Biggest surprises and snubs as full rosters revealed


As the calendar turns to February, the 2026 NBA All-Star Game is just two weeks away. The starters were announced on Jan. 19 and include Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the West. Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, Jaylen Brown, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyrese Maxey were named the starters in the East.

The reserves were announced on Sunday, including Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James and Kevin Durant in the West, as well as Donovan Mitchell and Karl-Anthony Towns in the East.

ESPN NBA Insiders Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton break down the full East and West rosters, including biggest surprises and snubs, and make their bold predictions.

Which player were you most surprised to see on the roster?

Pelton: LeBron James is the clear choice, but seeing Karl-Anthony Towns pop up was surprising given the pessimism over how he’s played this season on top of the Knicks’ recent slump. I think teammate Mikal Bridges has been New York’s second-best player after starter Jalen Brunson. Given Towns’ track record, the choice is certainly reasonable yet surprising nonetheless.

Kram: LeBron. It sounds silly to be surprised that a player who had made the last 21 All-Star games would make it 22 in a row. But given that James missed the first month and that his counting stats are down in his age-41 season, as well as the fierce competition in the Western Conference player pool, it was a surprise that his was the last name unveiled during the All-Star roster announcement.


Which player were you most surprised to see left off?

Pelton: Kawhi Leonard. Unless this is a secret part of the punishment from the NBA’s investigation into Leonard’s endorsement deal with Aspiration, I don’t get it. Leonard has been a top-10 player this season, and following a dreadful start, the LA Clippers have been one of the league’s hottest teams since Christmas. Anthony Edwards was the only West reserve I would have picked over Leonard. If I was taking a multi-time Finals MVP playing in L.A., Leonard was an easy choice over James.

Kram: Alperen Sengun was a first-time All-Star last season, has improved as a defender and has better counting stats across the board this year while helping lead the Houston Rockets to the second-best point differential in the West. New Rocket Kevin Durant was a shoo-in, but I think Sengun should have given Houston a second All-Star representative, even if that meant Devin Booker missed out and the surprising Phoenix Suns didn’t get a single player on the team.


Are we getting close to enough international All-Stars to do a normal USA/World 12 vs. 12 game?

Pelton: We might be closer to even in terms of internationals than East vs. West. Some of the answer depends on how creative the NBA is willing to get with its definition of international. Donovan Mitchell made the case recently to Andscape’s Marc J. Spears that he’d like to represent Panama, where his grandmother was born. If the NBA pushed every possible case like that or Kyrie Irving (born in Australia, though he grew up in the U.S.), they could get to 12 without diluting the meaning of being an All-Star.

Kram: There are almost enough worthy international players to round out a 12-person roster; if that were the framework this season, the eight actual international All-Stars would likely be joined by Sengun, Lauri Markkanen, Franz Wagner (despite a lack of playing time) and Joel Embiid. (Embiid was born in Cameroon but plays for Team USA internationally; the NBA could also choose to slot Towns, who was born in New Jersey but plays for the Dominican Republic, as an international representative.) Josh Giddey, OG Anunoby and Dillon Brooks have outside cases as well.

However, those players largely don’t have better All-Star cases than the ninth-through-12th-best Americans, so I wouldn’t advocate such a consequential change just yet. Let’s see how the format works with three teams (two American, one international) this year before deciding if the NBA should change the All-Star format once again.


Give us one bold prediction for the All-Star Game/mini-tournament.

Pelton: The NBA enjoys a short-term benefit from changing the format. Drafting teams and introducing a target score (aka the “Elam ending”) resulted in more competitive games initially before devolving into the defense-free play we’ve seen since. I could see the international team in particular taking things seriously and forcing their American opponents to up their game. However, I don’t see this or anything else “fixing” the All-Star Game long-term.

Kram: Victor Wembanyama takes MVP honors. Big men rarely win this award at the All-Star game — it’s gone to a guard or wing in 13 of the last 15 years, with Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the lone exceptions — but Wembanyama is so competitive that he’ll gain an advantage just by taking the event seriously. In his first All-Star game last year, he led his team in scoring (11 points in seven minutes), and he and Chris Paul were disqualified for trying to exploit a loophole in the skills challenge.



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Jude Bellingham in tears after Real Madrid injury, ‘an important loss’

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Jude Bellingham in tears after Real Madrid injury, ‘an important loss’


Coach Álvaro Arbeloa admitted Jude Bellingham is “an important loss” after the midfielder was substituted just 10 minutes into Real Madrid’s 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano on Sunday. The club confirmed on Sunday evening that the issue was with Bellingham’s left hamstring.

Kylian Mbappé scored a 100th-minute penalty to give Madrid the three points in LaLiga after a tough game which saw Rayo’s Jorge de Frutos level after Vinícius Júnior‘s early goal, before the visitors had two players sent off.

The Bernabéu crowd whistled the team pre-match — and again as they struggled during the second half — after Madrid’s midweek defeat at Benfica in the Champions League.

“We don’t know about Jude yet,” Arbeloa said in his post-match news conference, when asked about Bellingham’s injury.

The England international had gone down clutching his thigh after chasing a ball down the right wing with the game still goalless, and after being consoled by teammates, limped off the pitch, looking visibly upset and wiping away tears, as he was replaced by substitute Brahim Díaz.

“[Bellingham] has made a great effort in every game since I’ve been here,” Arbeloa said. “It’s a very important loss, but we have an extraordinary squad.”

Bellingham will now undergo tests to determine the extent of the problem.

The 22-year-old’s injury could be a major concern for England boss Thomas Tuchel ahead of Wembley friendlies against Uruguay and Japan next month.

Bellingham was one of the players — alongside Vinícius — singled out by some fans with whistles before the game, as their names were announced on the stadium loudspeakers.

Bellingham has had an injury-hit season, missing the early part of the campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery last summer.

Mbappé scores last-gasp penalty as Real Madrid edge Rayo
Mourinho on Benfica-Madrid in UCL: We got the king

“I respect the Bernabéu crowd, and I’ll always ask for their support,” Arbeloa said, when asked about the whistles.

Arbeloa insisted that Madrid hadn’t been fortunate to be given nine minutes of added time at the end of the second half, with their winning penalty being awarded in the 98th minute, and Mbappé scoring two minutes later.

“It could have been more,” Arbeloa said. “Every time visiting teams take a goal kick here, it takes a minute.”

The coach admitted that his team need to be more consistent, after a difficult start to his time in charge.

“I’m not Gandalf the White,” Arbeloa said, referring to the fictional wizard. “What I’m getting is what I wanted from my players: commitment and effort.”

Information from PA was used in this report.



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