PARIS: Scientists estimated Wednesday that rising temperatures from human-caused climate change were responsible for roughly 16,500 deaths in European cities this summer, using modelling to project the toll before official data is released.

The rapidly-produced study is the latest effort by climate and health researchers to quickly link the death toll during heatwaves to global warming –without waiting months or years to be published in a peer–reviewed journal.

The estimated deaths were not actually recorded in the European cities, but instead were a projection based on methods such as modelling used in previously peer-reviewed studies.

Death tolls during heatwaves are thought to be vastly underestimated because the causes of death recorded in hospitals are normally heart, breathing or other health problems that particularly affect the elderly when the mercury soars.

To get a snapshot of this summer, a UK-based team of researchers used climate modelling to estimate that global warming made temperatures an average of 2.2 degrees Celsius hotter in 854 European cities between June and August.

Using historical data indicating how such soaring temperatures drive up mortality rates, the team estimated there were around 24,400 excess deaths in those cities during that time.

They then compared this number to how many people would have died in a world that was not 1.3C warmer due to climate change caused by humans burning fossil fuels.

Nearly 70% – 16,500 – of the estimated excess deaths were due to global warming, according to the rapid attribution study.

This means climate change could have tripled the number of heat deaths this summer, said the study from scientists at Imperial College London and epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

The team had previously used similar methods to find a similar result for a single European heatwave that started in late June.

The researchers said they were not able to compare their estimates to actual excess deaths recorded in European cities this summer because most countries take a long time to publish that data.

“It’s impossible to get real-time statistics right now,” however, the estimates are “in the right ballpark,” study co-author Friederike Otto told a press conference.

‘Even more alarming’

The estimates did reflect previous peer-reviewed research, such as a Nature Medicine study, which determined there were more than 47,000 heat-related deaths during the European summer of 2023.

Numerous prominent climate and health researchers also backed the study.

“What makes this finding even more alarming is that the methods used in these attribution studies are scientifically robust, yet conservative,” said atmospheric science researcher Akshay Deoras at the UK’s University of Reading.

“The actual death toll could be even higher.”

The study said that Rome had the most estimated deaths attributed to climate change, with 835, followed by Athens with 630 and Paris with 409.

More than 85% of the estimated excess deaths were among people aged 65 or over.

The researchers emphasised the study did not represent Europe as a whole because some areas — such as the Balkans — were not included.

“An increase in heatwave temperature of just 2-4C can be the difference between life and death for thousands of people — this is why heatwaves are known as silent killers,” study co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis said.

This year was Europe’s fourth-hottest summer on record.

Tyler Robinson, the accused killer of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, has been formally charged with multiple serious offenses, including one count each of aggravated murder, felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily injury, and committing a violent crime in the presence of a child.

Prosecutors also filed two counts of obstruction of justice and two counts of witness tampering. Robinson, who will be held without bail, faces the death penalty.

Utah County prosecutors announced Tuesday that they would pursue capital punishment and disclosed new evidence, including text messages in which Robinson allegedly admitted to the shooting.

“I had enough of his hatred,” the 22-year-old suspect reportedly told his roommate and partner, according to transcripts filed in court.

Investigators say Robinson fired a single rifle shot from a rooftop at Utah Valley University in Orem, about 40 miles south of Salt Lake City.

The bullet struck Kirk in the neck, killing him instantly.

District Attorney Jeffrey Gray confirmed seven criminal counts, including aggravated murder, obstruction of justice for destroying evidence, and witness tampering for urging his roommate to delete messages.

The case has drawn national attention, with political figures including U.S. President Donald Trump calling for capital punishment.

At a press conference, DA Gray emphasized that the decision to seek the death penalty was made “independently, based solely on the evidence and the nature of the crime.”

Robinson appeared via video from jail for his initial hearing, unshaven and wearing a suicide-prevention smock.

He remained expressionless while the judge read the charges and informed him of the potential death sentence.

The defendant spoke only once, when asked to state his name.

Finding Robinson unable to afford legal counsel, Utah Fourth District Judge Tony Graf said he would appoint a defense attorney before the next court hearing, set for September 29.

In the meantime, he was ordered to remain held without bond in the Washington County Jail, where, according to a sheriff’s spokesperson, he has been placed under a “special watch protocol” that includes increased supervision.

Kirk’s killing, captured in graphic video clips that went viral online, sparked denunciations of political violence, opens new tab across the ideological spectrum but also unleashed a wave of partisan blame-casting and concerns that the murder might beget more bloodshed.

In court filings, prosecutors highlighted some of their evidence against Tyler Robinson, who was at large for more than 30 hours before eventually turning himself in.

Shortly after the shooting, prosecutors said, Robinson sent a text message telling his roommate to “drop what you’re doing, look under my keyboard.”

The roommate, whom officials have also described as Robinson’s romantic partner and transitioning from male to female, then found a physical note from

Robinson that read: “I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk and I’m going to take it.”

The roommate then asked Robinson in a text reply, “you weren’t the one who did it right????” Robinson responded: “I am, I’m sorry,” according to a transcript of the alleged dialogue.

When the roommate asked why he had shot Kirk, Tyler Robinson wrote back: “I had enough of his hatred.

Some hate can’t be negotiated out.” He also asserted he had planned the attack for more than a week, prosecutors said.

In later text messages, Robinson said he wished he had gone back and grabbed the rifle that he left in a bush immediately following the killing, noting it had belonged to his grandfather.

“I’m worried what my old man would do if I didn’t bring back grandpas rifle,” he wrote. “I might have to abandon it and hope they don’t find prints.”

DNA found on the trigger of the alleged murder weapon was linked to Robinson, prosecutors said.

• Protesters also unfold banner featuring Trump, Epstein’s photograph.
• Trump was friends with Epstein before becoming president.
• US president arrives in Britain for an unprecedented second state visit.
  

Four people were arrested on Tuesday following a projection of images of Donald Trump alongside sex offender Jeffrey Epstein onto the royal Windsor Castle, where the US President is set to be hosted by King Charles during his state visit to Britain.

Trump arrived in Britain late on Tuesday for an unprecedented second state visit, and will be greeted by Charles on Wednesday for a day of pomp at Windsor Castle, about 25 miles west of London.

Earlier on Tuesday, protesters unfurled a massive banner featuring a photograph of Trump and Epstein near Windsor Castle, and later projected several images of the two onto one of the castle’s towers.

The police said in a statement four adults were arrested on suspicion of malicious communications following an “unauthorised projection” at Windsor Castle, which they described as a “public stunt”. The four remain in custody.

Democrats in the US House of Representatives on September 8 made public a birthday letter Trump allegedly wrote to Epstein more than 20 years ago, though the White House has denied its authenticity.

The letter was also projected onto the castle, along with pictures of Epstein’s victims, news clips about the case and police reports.

The release of the letter has brought renewed attention to an issue that has become a political thorn in the president’s side.

Though he has urged his supporters to move on from the topic, the appetite for details about Epstein’s crimes and who else may have known about them or been involved with him has remained high.

Trump was friends with Epstein before becoming president, but had a falling out with the former financier years before his 2019 death in prison.

The birthday letter contained text of a purported dialogue between Trump and Epstein in which Trump calls him a “pal” and says, “May every day be another wonderful secret.” The text sits within a crude sketch of the silhouette of a naked woman.