Tech
Accounting for uncertainty to help engineers design complex systems
Designing a complex electronic device like a delivery drone involves juggling many choices, such as selecting motors and batteries that minimize cost while maximizing the payload the drone can carry or the distance it can travel.
Unraveling that conundrum is no easy task, but what happens if the designers don’t know the exact specifications of each battery and motor? On top of that, the real-world performance of these components will likely be affected by unpredictable factors, like changing weather along the drone’s route.
MIT researchers developed a new framework that helps engineers design complex systems in a way that explicitly accounts for such uncertainty. The framework allows them to model the performance tradeoffs of a device with many interconnected parts, each of which could behave in unpredictable ways.
Their technique captures the likelihood of many outcomes and tradeoffs, giving designers more information than many existing approaches which, at most, can usually only model best-case and worst-case scenarios.
Ultimately, this framework could help engineers develop complex systems like autonomous vehicles, commercial aircraft, or even regional transportation networks that are more robust and reliable in the face of real-world unpredictability.
“In practice, the components in a device never behave exactly like you think they will. If someone has a sensor whose performance is uncertain, and an algorithm that is uncertain, and the design of a robot that is also uncertain, now they have a way to mix all these uncertainties together so they can come up with a better design,” says Gioele Zardini, the Rudge and Nancy Allen Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at MIT, a principal investigator in the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS), an affiliate faculty with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS), and senior author of a paper on this framework.
Zardini is joined on the paper by lead author Yujun Huang, an MIT graduate student; and Marius Furter, a graduate student at the University of Zurich. The research will be presented at the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control.
Considering uncertainty
The Zardini Group studies co-design, a method for designing systems made of many interconnected components, from robots to regional transportation networks.
The co-design language breaks a complex problem into a series of boxes, each representing one component, that can be combined in different ways to maximize outcomes or minimize costs. This allows engineers to solve complex problems in a feasible amount of time.
In prior work, the researchers modeled each co-design component without considering uncertainty. For instance, the performance of each sensor the designers could choose for a drone was fixed.
But engineers often don’t know the exact performance specifications of each sensor, and even if they do, it is unlikely the senor will perfectly follow its spec sheet. At the same time, they don’t know how each sensor will behave once integrated into a complex device, or how performance will be affected by unpredictable factors like weather.
“With our method, even if you are unsure what the specifications of your sensor will be, you can still design the robot to maximize the outcome you care about,” says Furter.
To accomplish this, the researchers incorporated this notion of uncertainty into an existing framework based on category theory.
Using some mathematical tricks, they simplified the problem into a more general structure. This allows them to use the tools of category theory to solve co-design problems in a way that considers a range of uncertain outcomes.
By reformulating the problem, the researchers can capture how multiple design choices affect one another even when their individual performance is uncertain.
This approach is also simpler than many existing tools that typically require extensive domain expertise. With their plug-and-play system, one can rearrange the components in the system without violating any mathematical constraints.
And because no specific domain expertise is required, the framework could be used by a multidisciplinary team where each member designs one component of a larger system.
“Designing an entire UAV isn’t feasible for just one person, but designing a component of a UAV is. By providing the framework for how these components work together in a way that considers uncertainty, we’ve made it easier for people to evaluate the performance of the entire UAV system,” Huang says.
More detailed information
The researchers used this new approach to choose perception systems and batteries for a drone that would maximize its payload while minimizing its lifetime cost and weight.
While each perception system may offer a different detection accuracy under varying weather conditions, the designer doesn’t know exactly how its performance will fluctuate. This new system allows the designer to take these uncertainties into consideration when thinking about the drone’s overall performance.
And unlike other approaches, their framework reveals distinct advantages of each battery technology.
For instance, their results show that at lower payloads, nickel-metal hydride batteries provide the lowest expected lifetime cost. This insight would be impossible to fully capture without accounting for uncertainty, Zardini says.
While another method might only be able to show the best-case and worst-case performance scenarios of lithium polymer batteries, their framework gives the user more detailed information.
For example, it shows that if the drone’s payload is 1,750 grams, there is a 12.8 percent chance the battery design would be infeasible.
“Our system provides the tradeoffs, and then the user can reason about the design,” he adds.
In the future, the researchers want to improve the computational efficiency of their problem-solving algorithms. They also want to extend this approach to situations where a system is designed by multiple parties that are collaborative and competitive, like a transportation network in which rail companies operate using the same infrastructure.
“As the complexity of systems grow, and involves more disparate components, we need a formal framework in which to design these systems. This paper presents a way to compose large systems from modular components, understand design trade-offs, and importantly do so with a notion of uncertainty. This creates an opportunity to formalize the design of large-scale systems with learning-enabled components,” says Aaron Ames, the Bren Professor of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Control and Dynamical Systems, and Aerospace at Caltech, who was not involved with this research.
Tech
A Single Strike Won’t Shut Off the Gulf’s Desalination System
Across the region, facilities tied to water and power—including desalination plants—have been damaged or exposed to risk as Iranian strikes extend beyond traditional targets.
A single strike, however, is unlikely to shut off the gulf’s water supply. The system is designed to absorb isolated disruption, but sustained or multisite attacks would begin to strain supply far more quickly.
“In the Gulf, desalination is built with enough breathing room that losing one plant doesn’t immediately show up at the tap,” says Rabee Rustum, professor of water and environmental engineering at Heriot-Watt University Dubai.
In Kuwait, Iranian drone attacks have damaged two power and desalination facilities and ignited fires at two oil sites. Other sites, including Fujairah in the UAE, have been identified as potentially exposed.
“Striking desalination plants would be a strategic move, but it would also come very close to, and in some cases cross, a red line,” says Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London.
Water infrastructure, Krieg explains, occupies a distinct category. “Water infrastructure is not just another utility. In places that depend on desalination, it underpins civilian survival, public health, hospital function, sanitation, and basic state legitimacy.”
Krieg notes that international humanitarian law gives special protection to civilian objects and to objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population. “Which is precisely why attacks on water systems carry such grave legal and moral weight,” Krieg adds.
The incidents highlight a structural reality: Desalination is central to water supply in the gulf, and disruption carries immediate implications for daily life.
How the System Absorbs Disruption
At first glance, desalination appears vulnerable. Shut down a plant, and supply is reduced. In practice, the system is designed with layers of redundancy.
Plants operate across multiple locations, allowing output to be redistributed if one facility slows down. Water is also stored at different points across the network, including central reservoirs and building-level tanks, creating a buffer that delays disruption.
According to a statement to WIRED Middle East by Veolia, an environmental services provider whose technologies account for nearly 19 percent of desalination capacity in the region, “the region’s water supply is diversified thanks to a network of numerous facilities distributed along the coastline.”
The company adds that distribution systems are interconnected, allowing plants to “support and substitute for one another when necessary,” helping maintain continuity of service.
In the UAE, storage capacity typically covers around one week, while in other parts of the region it may be limited to two to three days, Veolia says.
In practice, this means the system can absorb disruption for a limited period. Once reserves are depleted, water supply depends on whether plants can continue producing enough water to meet demand.
The System That Produces Water
Unlike most regions, the Gulf does not rely on rivers or rainfall. It depends on a network of desalination plants along its coastline that convert seawater into potable water on a continuous basis.
Seawater is drawn into treatment facilities, filtered and processed either through reverse osmosis—forcing it through membranes to remove salt and impurities—or through thermal methods that evaporate and condense water. The resulting supply is distributed through pipelines, stored in reservoirs, and delivered to homes, hospitals, and industry.
This is not a flexible system. It is designed to operate continuously, producing water at a scale that sustains cities, industrial activity, and essential services. Gulf states produce roughly 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water, operating more than 400 plants across the region.
Dependence varies by country but is high everywhere. In the UAE, desalination accounts for 41 to 42 percent of total water supply, while in Kuwait, it provides around 90 percent of drinking water, and in Saudi Arabia, approximately 70 percent.
When Disruption Becomes Visible
For residents, disruption would not be felt immediately—water would continue to flow.
Rustum explains that buildings are supported by internal storage and pumping systems, meaning early changes in supply may not be apparent. In many cases, water pressure remains stable, even as the wider system adjusts.
Tech
Border Patrol Agents Sold Challenge Coins With ‘Charlotte’s Web’ Characters in Riot Gear
US Border Patrol agents are raising money by selling coins that commemorate last year’s wave of immigration enforcement “operations” across the country, along with other merchandise. The funds are for nonprofit organizations that list Border Patrol buildings as their address in IRS paperwork. At least two of the organizations have dedicated US Customs and Border Protection email addresses.
The front side of one coin for sale reads, “NORTH AMERICAN TOUR 2025,” along with the acronyms for US Border Patrol and the acronym for “fuck around and find out”—a phrase that was initially popularized by the far-right group the Proud Boys and has been used by various Trump officials. In the center, the coin depicts a gas mask, a riot control smoke grenade, and a pepper ball launcher. On the other side, the coin appears to have a portrait of Border Patrol’s now retired commander-at-large, Gregory Bovino, with his arm raised in a salute, along with the text “COMING TO A CITY NEAR YOU!” It lists seven cities, many of which actually saw federal enforcement surges in 2025: Chicago, Los Angeles, Memphis, Phoenix, Portland, Charlotte, and Atlanta.
The coin is for sale by Willcox Morale Welfare and Recreation, a nonprofit that the IRS most recently declared tax-exempt during the Biden administration and whose address on IRS paperwork matches that of the Willcox Border Patrol Station in Arizona. A request for comment sent to Willcox MWR’s dedicated CBP email address went unanswered.
Employees of the Department of Homeland Security, the parent agency for Border Patrol, are allowed to start private, not-for-profit employee associations within DHS, so long as they get formally recognized by the agency and follow certain rules. According to DHS policies, officially recognized groups can fundraise using government property and create merchandise with the agency’s name and logos–but they have to receive advance approval from the agency.
Willcox MWR is just one of several groups across the country that cater to Border Patrol agents and refer to themselves as MWRs, a reference to the US military’s “morale, welfare and recreation” programs. The groups tend to throw holiday events and retirement parties, and sometimes raise money for the families of agents going through hard times, including those not getting paid during the current shutdown.
Many MWRs also sell customized medallions known as “challenge coins” that commemorate specific teams or events. While anyone, including CBP alumni, can design and sell coins, current DHS employees are not supposed to use government resources to sell ones that use the agency’s seals or logos without permission, or ones that the agency considers inappropriate or unprofessional.
CBP did not provide comment about its relationship to Willcox MWR or any other nonprofit mentioned in this story, nor whether the agency had green-lit the “North American Tour” coin design, ahead of publication.
Under Willcox MWR’s Facebook post about the “North American Tour” coin, someone named Juan Diego commented, “Sign up SDC BK5 MWR for 10.”
“Shoot us an email,” someone managing the Willcox MWR account replied, giving out what appeared to be a dedicated cbp.dhs.gov email address for the group.
SDC BK5 MWR, also a registered nonprofit, lists an address on its website that matches that of a government facility in Chula Vista, California. It says on its site that it was started by San Diego Sector Border Patrol agents and sells custom merchandise “designed to raise funds for morale and relief efforts.”
Diego did not respond to a request for comment.
The SDC BK5 MWR website has listings for over 200 different products in addition to the North American Tour coin. One of those listings was a “Chicago Midway Blitz” challenge coin in the shape of a gas mask that doubles as a bottle opener. Embossed around the edges of the coin are the names of several municipalities and neighborhoods caught up in DHS’s immigration enforcement surge of the same name last fall. Like the North American Tour coin, it features the US Border Patrol logo and the acronym for “fuck around and find out.” Opponents of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement activity in Illinois are unamused.
Tech
One of Our Favorite 360 Cams Is 35 Percent Off
Tired of taking your action camera on an adventure, only to get home and find out you missed the action with a bad angle? One option is to switch to a 360-degree action cam, so you can capture all of the action and then edit down to just the good stuff later. One of our favorite options, the DJI Osmo 360, is currently available for just $390 on Amazon, a $209 discount from its usual price, and it comes with a selfie stick and an extra battery.
The DJI Osmo 360 achieves its impressive all-around video quality by leveraging a pair of 1/1.1-inch sensors, larger than some other offerings, and by supporting 10-bit color. You can really see that in the camera’s output, with colors that are vivid and bold, to the point that you may need to dial them back a bit in post if you want something more natural. With support for up to 50 frames per second at 8K when recording in 360 degrees, or 120 fps at 4K when shooting with only one sensor, you’ll have plenty of material to work with. In our testing, it ran for just shy of two hours at 30 fps, which is also around the time the internal storage had filled up anyway.
If you plan on catching any serious discussions with your Osmo 360, you’ll be pleased to know it connects directly to DJI’s line of wireless lavalier microphones, including the excellent and frequently discounted DJI Mic 2 and Mic Mini. If you want to mount it to something other than the included 1.2-meter selfie stick, it has both DJI’s magnetic attachment system and a more traditional ¼”-20 tripod mount. The DJI Mimo app lets you control the camera and adjust any settings, and there’s even a simple editor for on-the-fly production. For desktop users, DJI Studio has even more in-depth settings and editing options, in case you don’t want to pay for Premiere.
The DJI Osmo 360 is one of our favorite action cameras, and is particularly appealing at the discounted price point, but make sure to check out our full review for more info, or head over to our full roundup to see what else is available.
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