Tech
Accounting for uncertainty to help engineers design complex systems

Designing a complex electronic device like a delivery drone involves juggling many choices, such as selecting motors and batteries that minimize cost while maximizing the payload the drone can carry or the distance it can travel.
Unraveling that conundrum is no easy task, but what happens if the designers don’t know the exact specifications of each battery and motor? On top of that, the real-world performance of these components will likely be affected by unpredictable factors, like changing weather along the drone’s route.
MIT researchers developed a new framework that helps engineers design complex systems in a way that explicitly accounts for such uncertainty. The framework allows them to model the performance tradeoffs of a device with many interconnected parts, each of which could behave in unpredictable ways.
Their technique captures the likelihood of many outcomes and tradeoffs, giving designers more information than many existing approaches which, at most, can usually only model best-case and worst-case scenarios.
Ultimately, this framework could help engineers develop complex systems like autonomous vehicles, commercial aircraft, or even regional transportation networks that are more robust and reliable in the face of real-world unpredictability.
“In practice, the components in a device never behave exactly like you think they will. If someone has a sensor whose performance is uncertain, and an algorithm that is uncertain, and the design of a robot that is also uncertain, now they have a way to mix all these uncertainties together so they can come up with a better design,” says Gioele Zardini, the Rudge and Nancy Allen Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at MIT, a principal investigator in the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS), an affiliate faculty with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS), and senior author of a paper on this framework.
Zardini is joined on the paper by lead author Yujun Huang, an MIT graduate student; and Marius Furter, a graduate student at the University of Zurich. The research will be presented at the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control.
Considering uncertainty
The Zardini Group studies co-design, a method for designing systems made of many interconnected components, from robots to regional transportation networks.
The co-design language breaks a complex problem into a series of boxes, each representing one component, that can be combined in different ways to maximize outcomes or minimize costs. This allows engineers to solve complex problems in a feasible amount of time.
In prior work, the researchers modeled each co-design component without considering uncertainty. For instance, the performance of each sensor the designers could choose for a drone was fixed.
But engineers often don’t know the exact performance specifications of each sensor, and even if they do, it is unlikely the senor will perfectly follow its spec sheet. At the same time, they don’t know how each sensor will behave once integrated into a complex device, or how performance will be affected by unpredictable factors like weather.
“With our method, even if you are unsure what the specifications of your sensor will be, you can still design the robot to maximize the outcome you care about,” says Furter.
To accomplish this, the researchers incorporated this notion of uncertainty into an existing framework based on category theory.
Using some mathematical tricks, they simplified the problem into a more general structure. This allows them to use the tools of category theory to solve co-design problems in a way that considers a range of uncertain outcomes.
By reformulating the problem, the researchers can capture how multiple design choices affect one another even when their individual performance is uncertain.
This approach is also simpler than many existing tools that typically require extensive domain expertise. With their plug-and-play system, one can rearrange the components in the system without violating any mathematical constraints.
And because no specific domain expertise is required, the framework could be used by a multidisciplinary team where each member designs one component of a larger system.
“Designing an entire UAV isn’t feasible for just one person, but designing a component of a UAV is. By providing the framework for how these components work together in a way that considers uncertainty, we’ve made it easier for people to evaluate the performance of the entire UAV system,” Huang says.
More detailed information
The researchers used this new approach to choose perception systems and batteries for a drone that would maximize its payload while minimizing its lifetime cost and weight.
While each perception system may offer a different detection accuracy under varying weather conditions, the designer doesn’t know exactly how its performance will fluctuate. This new system allows the designer to take these uncertainties into consideration when thinking about the drone’s overall performance.
And unlike other approaches, their framework reveals distinct advantages of each battery technology.
For instance, their results show that at lower payloads, nickel-metal hydride batteries provide the lowest expected lifetime cost. This insight would be impossible to fully capture without accounting for uncertainty, Zardini says.
While another method might only be able to show the best-case and worst-case performance scenarios of lithium polymer batteries, their framework gives the user more detailed information.
For example, it shows that if the drone’s payload is 1,750 grams, there is a 12.8 percent chance the battery design would be infeasible.
“Our system provides the tradeoffs, and then the user can reason about the design,” he adds.
In the future, the researchers want to improve the computational efficiency of their problem-solving algorithms. They also want to extend this approach to situations where a system is designed by multiple parties that are collaborative and competitive, like a transportation network in which rail companies operate using the same infrastructure.
“As the complexity of systems grow, and involves more disparate components, we need a formal framework in which to design these systems. This paper presents a way to compose large systems from modular components, understand design trade-offs, and importantly do so with a notion of uncertainty. This creates an opportunity to formalize the design of large-scale systems with learning-enabled components,” says Aaron Ames, the Bren Professor of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Control and Dynamical Systems, and Aerospace at Caltech, who was not involved with this research.
Tech
Palladium filters could enable cheaper, more efficient generation of hydrogen fuel

Palladium is one of the keys to jump-starting a hydrogen-based energy economy. The silvery metal is a natural gatekeeper against every gas except hydrogen, which it readily lets through. For its exceptional selectivity, palladium is considered one of the most effective materials at filtering gas mixtures to produce pure hydrogen.
Today, palladium-based membranes are used at commercial scale to provide pure hydrogen for semiconductor manufacturing, food processing, and fertilizer production, among other applications in which the membranes operate at modest temperatures. If palladium membranes get much hotter than around 800 Kelvin, they can break down.
Now, MIT engineers have developed a new palladium membrane that remains resilient at much higher temperatures. Rather than being made as a continuous film, as most membranes are, the new design is made from palladium that is deposited as “plugs” into the pores of an underlying supporting material. At high temperatures, the snug-fitting plugs remain stable and continue separating out hydrogen, rather than degrading as a surface film would.
The thermally stable design opens opportunities for membranes to be used in hydrogen-fuel-generating technologies such as compact steam methane reforming and ammonia cracking—technologies that are designed to operate at much higher temperatures to produce hydrogen for zero-carbon-emitting fuel and electricity.
“With further work on scaling and validating performance under realistic industrial feeds, the design could represent a promising route toward practical membranes for high-temperature hydrogen production,” says Lohyun Kim Ph.D. ’24, a former graduate student in MIT’s Department of Mechanical Engineering.
Kim and his colleagues report details of the new membrane in a study appearing today in the journal Advanced Functional Materials. The study’s co-authors are Randall Field, director of research at the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI); former MIT chemical engineering graduate student Chun Man Chow Ph.D. ’23; Rohit Karnik, the Jameel Professor in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at MIT and the director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (J-WAFS); and Aaron Persad, a former MIT research scientist in mechanical engineering who is now an assistant professor at the University of Maryland Eastern Shore.
Compact future
The team’s new design came out of a MITEI project related to fusion energy. Future fusion power plants, such as the one MIT spinout Commonwealth Fusion Systems is designing, will involve circulating hydrogen isotopes of deuterium and tritium at extremely high temperatures to produce energy from the isotopes’ fusing. The reactions inevitably produce other gases that will have to be separated, and the hydrogen isotopes will be recirculated into the main reactor for further fusion.
Similar issues arise in a number of other processes for producing hydrogen, where gases must be separated and recirculated back into a reactor. Concepts for such recirculating systems would require first cooling down the gas before it can pass through hydrogen-separating membranes—an expensive and energy-intensive step that would involve additional machinery and hardware.
“One of the questions we were thinking about is: Can we develop membranes which could be as close to the reactor as possible, and operate at higher temperatures, so we don’t have to pull out the gas and cool it down first?” Karnik says. “It would enable more energy-efficient, and therefore cheaper and compact, fusion systems.”
The researchers looked for ways to improve the temperature resistance of palladium membranes. Palladium is the most effective metal used today to separate hydrogen from a variety of gas mixtures. It naturally attracts hydrogen molecules (H2) to its surface, where the metal’s electrons interact with and weaken the molecule’s bonds, causing H2 to temporarily break apart into its respective atoms. The individual atoms then diffuse through the metal and join back up on the other side as pure hydrogen.
Palladium is highly effective at permeating hydrogen, and only hydrogen, from streams of various gases. But conventional membranes typically can operate at temperatures of up to 800 Kelvin before the film starts to form holes or clumps up into droplets, allowing other gases to flow through.
Plugging in
Karnik, Kim and their colleagues took a different design approach. They observed that at high temperatures, palladium will start to shrink up. In engineering terms, the material is acting to reduce surface energy. To do this, palladium, and most other materials and even water, will pull apart and form droplets with the smallest surface energy. The lower the surface energy, the more stable the material can be against further heating.
This gave the team an idea: If a supporting material’s pores could be “plugged” with deposits of palladium—essentially already forming a droplet with the lowest surface energy—the tight quarters might substantially increase palladium’s heat tolerance while preserving the membrane’s selectivity for hydrogen.
To test this idea, they fabricated small chip-sized samples of membrane using a porous silica supporting layer (each pore measuring about half a micron wide), onto which they deposited a very thin layer of palladium. They applied techniques to essentially grow the palladium into the pores, and polished down the surface to remove the palladium layer and leave palladium only inside the pores.
They then placed samples in a custom-built apparatus in which they flowed hydrogen-containing gas of various mixtures and temperatures to test its separation performance. The membranes remained stable and continued to separate hydrogen from other gases even after experiencing temperatures of up to 1,000 Kelvin for over 100 hours—a significant improvement over conventional film-based membranes.
“The use of palladium film membranes are generally limited to below around 800 Kelvin, at which point they degrade,” Kim says. “Our plug design therefore extends palladium’s effective heat resilience by roughly at least 200 Kelvin and maintains integrity far longer under extreme conditions.”
These conditions are within the range of hydrogen-generating technologies such as steam methane reforming and ammonia cracking.
Steam methane reforming is an established process that has required complex, energy-intensive systems to preprocess methane to a form where pure hydrogen can be extracted. Such preprocessing steps could be replaced with a compact “membrane reactor,” through which a methane gas would directly flow, and the membrane inside would filter out pure hydrogen.
Such reactors would significantly cut down the size, complexity, and cost of producing hydrogen from steam methane reforming, and Kim estimates a membrane would have to work reliably in temperatures of up to nearly 1,000 Kelvin. The team’s new membrane could work well within such conditions.
Ammonia cracking is another way to produce hydrogen, by “cracking” or breaking apart ammonia. As ammonia is very stable in liquid form, scientists envision that it could be used as a carrier for hydrogen and be safely transported to a hydrogen fuel station, where ammonia could be fed into a membrane reactor that again pulls out hydrogen and pumps it directly into a fuel cell vehicle.
Ammonia cracking is still largely in pilot and demonstration stages, and Kim says any membrane in an ammonia cracking reactor would likely operate at temperatures of around 800 Kelvin—within the range of the group’s new plug-based design.
Karnik emphasizes that their results are just a start. Adopting the membrane into working reactors will require further development and testing to ensure it remains reliable over much longer periods of time.
“We showed that instead of making a film, if you make discretized nanostructures you can get much more thermally stable membranes,” Karnik says. “It provides a pathway for designing membranes for extreme temperatures, with the added possibility of using smaller amounts of expensive palladium, toward making hydrogen production more efficient and affordable. There is potential there.”
More information:
Nanostructured Hydrogen-Selective Palladium “Plug” Membranes Capable of Withstanding High Temperatures, Advanced Functional Materials (2025). advanced.onlinelibrary.wiley.c … .1002/adfm.202516184
This story is republished courtesy of MIT News (web.mit.edu/newsoffice/), a popular site that covers news about MIT research, innovation and teaching.
Citation:
Palladium filters could enable cheaper, more efficient generation of hydrogen fuel (2025, October 1)
retrieved 1 October 2025
from https://techxplore.com/news/2025-10-palladium-filters-enable-cheaper-efficient.html
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Tech
Exploring alternative metals for longer-lasting, faster-charging batteries

Yan Yao, a professor at University of Houston’s Cullen College of Engineering, along with collaborators from Singapore, Zhejiang University and Seoul National University, have published a review in the journal Science eying alternative metals for battery anodes.
If Yao and his fellow collaborators succeed, it could lead to longer-lasting batteries for electric vehicles, smartphones, laptops and more.
“I think the most exciting part of this is the global interest in this new battery,” Yao said. “But we still have a lot of challenges ahead; there’s still a lot of learning that needs to be done.”
The review highlights the similarities and differences in monovalent metals such as lithium, sodium and potassium, and multivalent metals, including magnesium, calcium and aluminum.
The impetus for this review is that graphite, the standard anode for lithium-ion batteries, is reaching its practical limits. Lithium metal could be a strong alternative as it offers 10 times the charge storage capacity of graphite, but it tends to form tiny spikes called dendrites that can short-circuit batteries.
Meanwhile, multivalent metals present promising alternatives because they are more abundant, safer and potentially able to store more energy at a lower cost. The downside to these metals is multivalent ions move more slowly, which can slow charging, but are less prone to forming dendrites.
To overcome these barriers, researchers are exploring textured electrode surfaces that guide smooth metal growth and developing new electrolytes that optimize ion movement and protective film formation.
“This work underscores the need for continued research to overcome the technical barriers of multivalent metal batteries,” Yao said. “Advances in electrode design, electrolyte chemistry, and battery architecture are crucial to harness the full potential of these materials.”
The study also identifies emerging design principles, such as using locally high salt concentrations and weakly solvating electrolytes for monovalent systems, and strongly solvating, weakly ion-pairing electrolytes for multivalent systems, offering a roadmap for next-generation electrolyte development.
Other contributors include Yuanjian Li, Sonal Kumar, Gaoliang Yang and Zhi Wei Seh from the Institute of Materials Research and Engineering (IMRE) in Singapore; Jun Lu from Zhejiang University; and Kisuk Kang from Seoul National University.
With global demand for high-performance, sustainable batteries growing, this research provides critical guidance for scientists and engineers striving to develop the next generation of energy storage technologies.
More information:
Yuanjian Li et al, The contrast between monovalent and multivalent metal battery anodes, Science (2025). DOI: 10.1126/science.adl5482
Citation:
Exploring alternative metals for longer-lasting, faster-charging batteries (2025, October 1)
retrieved 1 October 2025
from https://techxplore.com/news/2025-10-exploring-alternative-metals-longer-faster.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
Tech
Amazon’s 2 Best-Selling Espresso Machines are on Sale Before Prime Day

Hi. it turns out Prime Day is only really a suggestion on the calendar. A lot of brands like to kick out early Prime Day deals before getting lost in the big din of Prime Big Deal Days on October 7-8. (See here for early Prime Day deals on laptops, earbuds, and more.)
The two most popular espresso machines on Earth—as judged by Amazon sales, anyway–are both on sale for $100 off this week, ahead of Amazon Prime Day’s October reprise. These are a couple of the best early Prime Day Deals.
$100 off Ninja Luxe Cafe Premier Before Prime Day
The most exciting deal of the pair is probably the Ninja Luxe Cafe Premier ($500), on sale for the lowest price we’ve ever seen it.
When Ninja announced it was jumping into the semiautomatic espresso market, I didn’t know quite what to make of it. But Ninja seems to have applied its general flair for multipurpose machines to this beautifully beginner-friendly espresso machine with a 25-setting conical burr grinder, a built-in scale (thank you), and options for cold brew and drip coffee.
WIRED contributing reviewer Tyler Shane was likewise skeptical of Ninja’s first espresso device when it arrived but ended up loving the excellent milk steaming and the fact that this Ninja grinds espresso shots by weight. (Why doesn’t everybody?) She also appreciated the reasonable price—a price that’s even more reasonable ahead of Prime Day.
$100 off Breville Barista Express
Breville’s Barista Express ($600) semiautomatic espresso machine has been Amazon’s best-selling espresso machine for years—so long it’s hard to remember a time when it wasn’t the top-selling pick.
Why’s it so popular? It’s a Goldilocks thing—a mix of accessible price, Breville’s excellent reputation for customer service on high-ticket items, and beautiful ease of use on a semiautomatic machine with a built-in grinder that makes full-flavored, well-extracted espresso. This $100 discount isn’t quite the lowest price we’ve seen on it—it’s been down to $550 before—but it’s a very good price.
And besides, this Breville has the merit of being a tried-and-true machine. WIRED reviewer Julian Chokkattu has been pulling shots from his Barista Express for six years now, and it’s still going strong. No wonder the Express has been among WIRED’s top espresso machine picks for ages.
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