Global oil markets jolted sharply higher on Monday as escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered fears of supply disruption, pushing Brent crude up 13% to above $82 per barrel.

Futures for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also jumped nearly 10%, crossing $70 per barrel in early Asian trading.

The surge follows US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, raising concerns that shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could be severely disrupted.

Strait of Hormuz in Focus

Roughly 20% of global oil supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.

While the route is not completely shut, analysts warn that insurance premiums and security risks may effectively halt most commercial traffic.

Major shipping companies have already begun suspending fleet movements through the area.

According to analysts, a prolonged disruption could remove between 8 to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) from global supply — a shock that strategic reserves may struggle to offset.

Amena Bakr of Kpler said oil prices could climb toward $90 per barrel if tensions persist, while some experts caution that prices above $100 cannot be ruled out.

Inflation and Growth Risks

The spike in crude prices has reignited fears of global inflation, particularly in energy-importing nations.

Higher fuel, shipping, and transportation costs could ripple across supply chains, slowing economic growth.

The last time oil crossed $100 per barrel was during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war, triggering prolonged inflationary pressure worldwide.

Economists warn that if tensions continue for an extended period, the global economy could face renewed recessionary risks.

 US Political Implications

Analysts note that elevated energy prices could pose political challenges in the United States ahead of mid-term elections, especially as President Donald Trump had pledged lower fuel costs.

Some observers suggest Iran may seek to keep crude prices elevated to exert economic pressure amid ongoing geopolitical confrontation.

What’s Next?

Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf.

Any formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz or direct targeting of energy infrastructure could push prices significantly higher.

For now, volatility is expected to remain elevated as traders assess the risk of prolonged supply disruption.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was martyred in US and Israeli strikes, state media confirmed, as another wave of attacks hit the country on Sunday.

Several countries, global bodies and prominent groups responded to the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, urging de-escalation.

Pakistan

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Sunday denounced the targeting of Iran’s supreme leader in joint strikes by the United States and Israel, saying such actions were a “violation of the norms of international law”.

In a post on X, PM Shehbaz said that it was an age-old convention that the heads of state or government should not be targeted.

“Pakistan also expresses concern over the violation of the norms of international law. It is an age-old convention that the heads of state/government should not be targeted.”

Russia

President Vladimir Putin described Khamenei’s killing as a “cynical murder” that violated “all standards of human morality and international law”.

“Please accept my deep condolences in connection with the murder of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei, and members of his family, committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.”

China

China said it “strongly condemns” the United States and Israel’s assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling again for a halt to military actions.

The assassination was “a serious violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security, a trampling on the aims and principles of the UN Charter and the basic norms of international relations”, Beijing’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

“China firmly opposes and strongly condemns this,” it added, calling for an “immediate halting of military operations”.

Malaysia

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Sunday “unreservedly” condemned the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

“I unreservedly condemn the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This act places the Middle East on the edge of grave and sustained instability. I extend my condolences to the Islamic Republic of Iran and to the Iranian people at this profoundly difficult momen,” wrote 

Indonesia’s Ulema Muslim Clerical Council

“The Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) expressed its deepest condolences for the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, as a result of the Israeli-American attack on February 28.

“The United States, which is playing a central role in managing the Palestinian conflict through the BoP (Board of Peace), faces a major question: is this strategy truly aimed at a just peace, or is it actually strengthening an unequal security architecture and burying Palestinian independence? Therefore, the MUI urges the Indonesian government to revoke its membership from the BoP.”

North Korea

North Korea condemned the US and Israeli strikes as an “illegal act of aggression”.

The attacks “constitute a thoroughly illegal act of aggression and the most vile form of violation of sovereignty in their nature”, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said, according to state media.

Iranian president

“The martyrdom of the Supreme Leader at the hands of Israel and the criminal America was a great disaster for our country… America and Israel should know that it will bring them nothing but embarrassment.”

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Sunday claimed it had launched ballistic missile strikes targeting a US aircraft carrier, identifying the vessel as the USS Abraham Lincoln, as part of what it called “Operation True Promise 4.”

In a statement, the IRGC’s public relations office said four ballistic missiles were fired at the carrier, adding that Iran’s military campaign had entered a “new phase.” The group warned that both land and sea would become the “burial place” for what it described as aggressors.

Multiple Waves of Strikes Announced

Earlier, the IRGC said it had launched the seventh and eighth waves of strikes under the same operation, in response to what it termed ongoing aggression by the United States and Israel.

Iran claimed it had carried out precision strikes on military targets in Israeli territory, including areas near Tel Aviv and Haifa. It also alleged that Israeli officials had taken shelter due to heightened security concerns.

Targets Across the Gulf

The IRGC further stated that it had targeted US-operated facilities in West Asia, including the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain, as well as installations in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

There has been no immediate confirmation from US or Israeli officials regarding the reported missile strikes or the extent of any damage.

Rising Regional Tensions

The developments mark a sharp escalation in regional tensions following reported military exchanges between Iran, Israel and US forces over the weekend.

Independent verification of the claims remains pending, and international observers have urged restraint amid fears of a broader conflict across the Middle East.