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Bank of England warns of AI bubble risk

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Bank of England warns of AI bubble risk


Archie MitchellBusiness reporter

PA Media The Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey addresses a press conference wearing a dark suit and tie.PA Media

The Bank of England has warned of a “sharp correction” in the value of major tech companies with growing fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

It said share prices in the UK are close to the “most stretched” they have been since the 2008 global financial crisis, while equity valuations in the US are reminiscent of those before the dotcom bubble burst.

The central bank’s financial stability report warned valuations are “particularly stretched” for companies focused on AI.

In its report the Bank also announced plans to lower the amount of capital High Street banks need to hold in a bid to boost lending and spur economic growth.

It marks the first reduction in the amount lenders need to hold since the 2008 financial crisis, and followed stress tests showing they would be able to withstand a crisis scenario with unemployment doubling, house prices plummeting and the economy contracting by 5%.

AI bubble fears

The Bank said the growth of the AI sector in the next five years would be fuelled by trillions of dollars of debt, raising financial stability risks if the value of the companies falls.

It cited industry figures forecasting spending on AI infrastructure could top $5tn (£3.8tn) and said much of this would be funded by AI firms themselves, but around half would come from outside sources, mostly through debt.

“Deeper links between AI firms and credit markets, and increasing interconnections between those firms, mean that, should an asset price correction occur, losses on lending could increase financial stability risks,” it said.

The Bank of England is the latest institution to sound the alarm over a potential crash in the value of AI firms reminiscent of previous incidents such as the dotcom bubble.

Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of US bank JP Morgan, told the BBC in October he was “far more worried than others” about the risk of a serious market correction in the coming years.

The International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development have also warned of price corrections.

The dotcom booms refers to a period in the late 1990s, during which the values of early internet companies surged on a wave of optimism for what was then a new technology, before the bubble burst in early 2000 – with many share prices collapsing.

This led to some companies going bust, resulting in job losses.

A drop in share prices can also hit the value of people’s savings including their pension funds.

Fears over an AI-related stock market correction come as Chancellor Rachel Reeves used her Budget to encourage savers to pile cash into stocks and shares by reducing the amounts which can be saved in cash Isas.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has previously raised fears about a potential financial crash, warning after the collapse of two US companies that “alarm bells” were ringing.

On Tuesday he said the AI sector in the US is “very concentrated”, making up a large portion of the value of the country’s stock market.

But he added: “There is a difference to the dotcom situation in that these companies have got positive cash flows, they are not created on hope.

“But, as we see, and we saw last week in the debate about whether Google is moving onto Nvidia’s patch, it doesn’t mean to say everybody is going to win, it doesn’t mean to say everyone is going to win equally.

“It is important to be clear it is not inconsistent, quite consistent in fact that AI turns out to be the next general purpose technology in terms of prompting productivity growth across economies. I hope it is, but we’ll see.”

Global risks

The central bank also said the risks to financial stability had risen during 2025, citing geopolitical tensions, global trade wars and rising borrowing costs for governments.

It said growing tension between countries had specifically raised the prospect of cyber-attacks and other disruptions.

After assessing High Street lenders’ ability to cope in a crisis situation, the Bank has proposed lowering the benchmark for Tier 1 capital requirements for firms to 13% from the 14% level it has been at since 2015. The requirement refers to the buffer banks must hold in case of any losses from risky lending.

The central bank said this would still give firms a £60bn buffer against their minimum requirements so they would be able to continue lending to households and companies.

The Bank’s Financial Policy Committee said lowering the threshold would make it easier for lenders to offer loans to households and businesses. The changes are due to come into force in 2027.

Elsewhere in the financial stability report, the Bank warned homeowners coming off fixed-rate mortgages in the next two years face a £64 increase in their monthly repayments.

The central bank said the typical owner-occupier coming off a fixed rate would see an 8% jump in their bills as the impact of higher interest rates continues to bite.

In total, 3.9 million people, or 43% of mortgage holders, are expected to refinance at higher rates by 2028, the Bank said.

But a third will see their monthly payments fall in that period, it added, with interest rates having fallen significantly since a spike in 2022.

The Bank of England’s base rate, which influences the cost of borrowing for individuals, including mortgages, has fallen from 5.25% in 2024 to its current 4%.



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Global stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy

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Global stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy



It is unusual for a senior figure at the Bank to be so forthright on market movements.



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Consumer confidence falls as rapid price rises give households the ‘jitters’

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Consumer confidence falls as rapid price rises give households the ‘jitters’



Consumer confidence has fallen for the third consecutive month amid household “jitters” over rapid price rises, figures show.

GfK’s long-running consumer confidence index fell four points to minus 25 in April, following falls of two points and three points in March and February respectively.

The deepening concern was driven by perceptions of the UK economy, with a six-point slide in confidence for the next 12 months to minus 43, its lowest level since February 2023.

Confidence in personal finances over the coming year fell five points to minus four – one point lower than this time last year.

The major purchase index – an indicator of confidence in buying big ticket items – held steady, albeit at minus 18 but one point better than last April.

The only measure to improve was the savings index – often an indication that households are concerned about their finances and looking to build contingency funds – which is up five points to 32.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “Consumers really do have the jitters now.

“It is a year since we last saw a monthly drop of this size, and we have to go back to October 2023 to find the last time consumer confidence was lower.

“Everyone is grappling with rapid price rises, especially at the fuel pumps, which are taking a dent out of household budgets, and people know further price hikes are coming.

“Consumer confidence is deteriorating sharply, with fuel prices and threats of more energy price increases acting as constant reminders of inflation.

“While the Gulf crisis is intensifying pressures, much of the current strain reflects earlier domestic cost increases.

“How long can all this disruption and pain continue?”



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Nike cuts 1,400 roles in second round of layoffs this year

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Nike cuts 1,400 roles in second round of layoffs this year


People walk past a Nike store in New York City, on April 2, 2025.

Kylie Cooper | Reuters

Nike announced a new round of layoffs Thursday affecting approximately 1,400 employees across the organization, mostly concentrated in its technology department.

In a note from COO Venkatesh Alagirisamy, the company said the layoffs were part of Nike’s broader “Win Now” turnaround strategy aiming to reshape its technology team, modernize its Air manufacturing, move some of its Converse Footwear operations and integrate its materials supply chain work into its footwear and apparel supply chain teams.

“Collectively, these changes will result in a reduction of approximately 1,400 roles in global operations, with the majority in technology,” Alagirisamy wrote. “These reductions are very hard for the teammates directly affected and for the teams around them, too.”

A Nike spokesperson said the layoffs are about better positioning the organization for the current pace of sports and accelerating its growth. The layoffs affect employees across North America, Asia and Europe and represent less than 2% of the company’s total global head count.

“This is not a new direction,” Alagirisamy wrote. “It is the next phase of the work already underway.”

Affected employees will be notified beginning Thursday, Nike added.

CEO Elliott Hill has been working to turn Nike around after years of slumping sales. While Hill has made some initial progress, it’s come with some bumps in the road.

Nike announced 775 job cuts in January, primarily at its U.S.-based distribution centers, due to the company’s work in accelerating its use of automation. At the time, the company said the cuts are part of Nike’s goal to return to “long-term, profitable growth.”

Those layoffs came on top of a round of cuts last summer that affected less than 1% of Nike’s corporate staff as part of the company’s efforts to realign the business.

In its third fiscal quarter earnings report last month, the retailer warned that sales will continue to fall for the rest of the year, primarily led by an anticipated 20% decline in China during the current quarter.

— CNBC’s Jessica Golden contributed to this report.

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