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Bank of England warns of AI bubble risk

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Bank of England warns of AI bubble risk


Archie MitchellBusiness reporter

PA Media The Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey addresses a press conference wearing a dark suit and tie.PA Media

The Bank of England has warned of a “sharp correction” in the value of major tech companies with growing fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

It said share prices in the UK are close to the “most stretched” they have been since the 2008 global financial crisis, while equity valuations in the US are reminiscent of those before the dotcom bubble burst.

The central bank’s financial stability report warned valuations are “particularly stretched” for companies focused on AI.

In its report the Bank also announced plans to lower the amount of capital High Street banks need to hold in a bid to boost lending and spur economic growth.

It marks the first reduction in the amount lenders need to hold since the 2008 financial crisis, and followed stress tests showing they would be able to withstand a crisis scenario with unemployment doubling, house prices plummeting and the economy contracting by 5%.

AI bubble fears

The Bank said the growth of the AI sector in the next five years would be fuelled by trillions of dollars of debt, raising financial stability risks if the value of the companies falls.

It cited industry figures forecasting spending on AI infrastructure could top $5tn (£3.8tn) and said much of this would be funded by AI firms themselves, but around half would come from outside sources, mostly through debt.

“Deeper links between AI firms and credit markets, and increasing interconnections between those firms, mean that, should an asset price correction occur, losses on lending could increase financial stability risks,” it said.

The Bank of England is the latest institution to sound the alarm over a potential crash in the value of AI firms reminiscent of previous incidents such as the dotcom bubble.

Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of US bank JP Morgan, told the BBC in October he was “far more worried than others” about the risk of a serious market correction in the coming years.

The International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development have also warned of price corrections.

The dotcom booms refers to a period in the late 1990s, during which the values of early internet companies surged on a wave of optimism for what was then a new technology, before the bubble burst in early 2000 – with many share prices collapsing.

This led to some companies going bust, resulting in job losses.

A drop in share prices can also hit the value of people’s savings including their pension funds.

Fears over an AI-related stock market correction come as Chancellor Rachel Reeves used her Budget to encourage savers to pile cash into stocks and shares by reducing the amounts which can be saved in cash Isas.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has previously raised fears about a potential financial crash, warning after the collapse of two US companies that “alarm bells” were ringing.

On Tuesday he said the AI sector in the US is “very concentrated”, making up a large portion of the value of the country’s stock market.

But he added: “There is a difference to the dotcom situation in that these companies have got positive cash flows, they are not created on hope.

“But, as we see, and we saw last week in the debate about whether Google is moving onto Nvidia’s patch, it doesn’t mean to say everybody is going to win, it doesn’t mean to say everyone is going to win equally.

“It is important to be clear it is not inconsistent, quite consistent in fact that AI turns out to be the next general purpose technology in terms of prompting productivity growth across economies. I hope it is, but we’ll see.”

Global risks

The central bank also said the risks to financial stability had risen during 2025, citing geopolitical tensions, global trade wars and rising borrowing costs for governments.

It said growing tension between countries had specifically raised the prospect of cyber-attacks and other disruptions.

After assessing High Street lenders’ ability to cope in a crisis situation, the Bank has proposed lowering the benchmark for Tier 1 capital requirements for firms to 13% from the 14% level it has been at since 2015. The requirement refers to the buffer banks must hold in case of any losses from risky lending.

The central bank said this would still give firms a £60bn buffer against their minimum requirements so they would be able to continue lending to households and companies.

The Bank’s Financial Policy Committee said lowering the threshold would make it easier for lenders to offer loans to households and businesses. The changes are due to come into force in 2027.

Elsewhere in the financial stability report, the Bank warned homeowners coming off fixed-rate mortgages in the next two years face a £64 increase in their monthly repayments.

The central bank said the typical owner-occupier coming off a fixed rate would see an 8% jump in their bills as the impact of higher interest rates continues to bite.

In total, 3.9 million people, or 43% of mortgage holders, are expected to refinance at higher rates by 2028, the Bank said.

But a third will see their monthly payments fall in that period, it added, with interest rates having fallen significantly since a spike in 2022.

The Bank of England’s base rate, which influences the cost of borrowing for individuals, including mortgages, has fallen from 5.25% in 2024 to its current 4%.



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Mining companies hold FTSE back in quiet end to the week

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Mining companies hold FTSE back in quiet end to the week



Stocks in London ended little changed on Friday, with blue chips edging lower after notching another record as investors held fire ahead of the long weekend in the US.

“Investors have been kept on their toes year-to-date with non-stop geopolitical issues, and mixed messages from the business world. A quieter day on the corporate reporting calendar gave investors a chance to catch their breath and take stock of events,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

The FTSE 100 index closed down just 3.65 points at 10,235.29. It had earlier hit a new intra-day best level of 10,257.75.

The FTSE 250 ended up 31.39 points, 0.1%, at 23,311.37, and the AIM All-Share closed just 0.27 of a point higher at 804.75.

For the week, the FTSE 100 rose 1.1%, the FTSE 250 climbed 1.2%, and the AIM All-Share advanced 2.1%.

In European equities on Friday, the CAC 40 in Paris closed down 0.7%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt ended 0.2% lower.

“There was a slightly negative tone across European stock indices on Friday,” commented David Morrison, senior market analyst, at Trade Nation. “It appeared that investors were more comfortable taking some risk off the table, no doubt mindful that US markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.”

In London, the FTSE 100 was pegged back by weak mining stocks, a key factor behind recent index strength.

The price of copper fell 3.0%, and silver slumped 3.7%, giving up some recent gains, while gold nursed less severe falls.

Gold was quoted at 4,594.24 dollars an ounce on Friday, down from 4,616.76 on Thursday.

In response, Endeavour Mining fell 2.7%, Anglo American declined 2.4%, Antofagasta dipped 2.9%, and Glencore fell 2.5%.

Strategists at Bank of America downgraded the mining sector to ‘underweight’ and lifted energy to ‘market weight’.

“After sharp outperformance for mining, the potential downside risks stemming from the sector’s macro drivers are becoming hard to ignore,” BofA said.

BofA noted that a historical divergence in commodity prices has led to a decoupling among European resources with a surge in metal prices over recent months, including a 50% rally in copper, alongside a “roll-over” in energy prices, with the oil price down 30% to four-year lows recently.

As a result, the copper-to-oil ratio has risen close to a 40-year high, which in turn has led to significant divergence between European resources sectors, with mining outperforming by 40% since April, while energy has underperformed by nearly 15%.

“Resources sector pricing looks stretched in both directions,” BofA added.

Brent oil traded higher at 64.48 dollars a barrel on Friday, up from 63.55 late on Thursday.

Pearson ended a miserable week for investors, with a further 4.1% decline.

The educational publisher has seen its shares fall 12% this week after a poorly received trading update.

A previously undisclosed contract loss for US student assessment in New Jersey, which will drag on first-half growth, was blamed for the stock fall, although analysts note Pearson is confident that the loss of the contract will have no bearing on other renewals in the coming years.

Heading higher were property companies British Land and Land Securities, up 1.4% and 1.3% respectively, on hopes lower interest rates will spark a sector upturn, while BAE Systems, up 2.3%, remained in favour amid geopolitical jitters.

Stocks in New York were little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was slightly lower, while the S&P 500 index was up 0.1%, as was the Nasdaq Composite.

Economic data showed that US industrial production rose faster than expected in December.

The Federal Reserve said that on a monthly basis, industrial production increased by 0.4% in December, the same pace as in November, which was revised up from 0.2%. It was better than the FXStreet-cited consensus of a 0.1% uptick.

On an annual basis, total industrial production was 2.0% higher in December than a year prior.

Shannon Glein, analyst at Wells Fargo, said the underlying details show a “key theme from last year – everything high-tech and AI related outperformed”.

“We expect this trend to persist going forward, but it’s also worth noting that the slow yet steady ascent in all other industrial production on a year-ago basis is a sign that broader activity may be starting to recover,” she added.

The pound was quoted lower at 1.3382 dollars at the time of the London equities close on Friday, compared to 1.3388 on Thursday.

The euro stood at 1.1596 dollars, lower against 1.1607.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was quoted at 4.21%, widening from 4.16%. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was quoted at 4.82%, stretched from 4.78%.

Back in London, Genus led the FTSE 250 risers, advancing 7.8%, after reporting that adjusted pretax profit for the six months to December 31 would be about £50 million, ahead of expectations.

Berenberg pointed out it was “the second guidance raise in the past three months, making it one of the standout performers within our coverage”.

“Importantly, the upgrades are being driven by strong trading in the PIC (pigs) business, which reflects the benefits of the group’s shift towards a royalty-driven model. This is increasing the defensiveness and predictability of earnings and sets a very positive tone for a year that we believe has more positive catalysts to come”, the bank added.

The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were BAE Systems, up 47.0 pence at 2,088.0p, NatWest, up 13.8p at 652.8p, Smiths Group, up 50.0p at 2,612.0p, Schroders, up 8.6p at 467.0p and National Grid, up 20.5p at 1,201.5p.

The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Pearson, down 39.6p at 939.0p, Entain, down 23.8p at 703.0p, Antofagasta, down 105.0p at 3,560.0p, Endeavour Mining, down 110.0p at 3,996.0p and Glencore, down 12.4p at 478.6p.

Monday’s global economic calendar features a slew of data from China, including GDP, retail sales, and industrial production.

In Canada, inflation figures will be published, while US financial markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day.

Monday’s UK corporate calendar has a trading statement from building materials firm Marshalls.

Later in the week, trading statements are due from luxury goods retailer Burberry, sports retailer JD Sports Fashion and miner Rio Tinto.

Contributed by Alliance News.



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Zipcar to end UK operations affecting 650,000 drivers

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Zipcar to end UK operations affecting 650,000 drivers



Car-sharing firm Zipcar has confirmed it is stopping operations in the UK after launching a consultation late last year.

The move will hit the company’s roughly 650,000 drivers across the country.

On December 1, the US-based company told customers in the UK that it planned to suspend new bookings temporarily at the turn of the year.

The business, which had 71 UK employees at the end of 2024, launched a formal consultation with staff as a result.

On Friday, in a fresh email to customers, the business said it “can now confirm that Zipcar will cease operating in the UK”.

The company added: “In accordance with clause 7.5 of the member terms, please take this as your written notice that we will formally close your account in 30 days’ time.

“It’s not possible to make any new bookings with Zipcar UK at this time, but your account will remain open until February 16.”

It added that customers will be entitled to a pro-rated refund for any remaining periods on current plans or subscriptions, from the start of 2026.

Zipcar said this will be done automatically and will not require any action from users.

Accounts showed that the van and car hire firm saw losses deepen to £5.7 million in 2024 after a decrease in customer trips.



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Budget 2026: Will Markets Be Open On February 1? Full Details Inside

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Budget 2026: Will Markets Be Open On February 1? Full Details Inside


New Delhi: Good news for investors and market watchers! Even though February 1 falls on a Sunday this year, the Indian stock markets will remain open for trading on Budget Day. Both the BSE and NSE announced on January 16 that trading will take place as per normal market hours on February 1 for Budget 2026. This special arrangement ensures that investors can react to Budget announcements in real time, without waiting for the next trading session.

The NSE clarified the special trading arrangement in a circular, stating, “On account of the presentation of the Union Budget, members are requested to note that Exchange shall be conducting live trading session on February 01, 2026, as per the standard market timings (9:15 am-3:30 pm),” said NSE in a circular.

Union Budget 2026 to be presented on February 1 at 11 am

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The Union Budget for 2026 will be presented at 11 am on Sunday, February 1, the Lok Sabha Speaker confirmed on January 12. In recent years, February 1 has become the fixed date for the annual Budget presentation, a trend that continued with the 2025 Budget as well. The upcoming Budget will also be a significant milestone for Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, as it will be her ninth consecutive Union Budget, placing her among finance ministers with the longest uninterrupted Budget tenures.

Trading details for Budget Day explained

While most core market segments will remain open during regular trading hours on Budget Day, some services will stay shut. The BSE has clarified that the T+0 settlement session and the auction session meant for settlement defaults will not be operational. At the same time, the NSE confirmed that trading in capital markets and derivatives will continue as usual.

Stock market holiday list remains the same

The stock market holiday calendar for 2026 remains unchanged, with Indian exchanges observing 16 public holidays apart from weekends. The next scheduled market closure this month will be on January 26. In the first half of the year, markets will remain shut on key occasions such as Holi (March 3), Ram Navami (March 26), Mahavir Jayanti (March 31) and Good Friday (April 3). Trading will also be suspended on Ambedkar Jayanti (April 14), Maharashtra Day (May 1) and Bakri Id (May 28).

In the second half of the year, markets will close on Muharram (June 26), Ganesh Chaturthi (September 14), Gandhi Jayanti (October 2), Dussehra (October 20), Diwali Balipratipada (November 10) and Guru Nanak Jayanti (November 24). Christmas, on December 25, will be the final market holiday of 2026.



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