Business
Bank of England warns of AI bubble risk
Archie MitchellBusiness reporter
PA MediaThe Bank of England has warned of a “sharp correction” in the value of major tech companies with growing fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.
It said share prices in the UK are close to the “most stretched” they have been since the 2008 global financial crisis, while equity valuations in the US are reminiscent of those before the dotcom bubble burst.
The central bank’s financial stability report warned valuations are “particularly stretched” for companies focused on AI.
In its report the Bank also announced plans to lower the amount of capital High Street banks need to hold in a bid to boost lending and spur economic growth.
It marks the first reduction in the amount lenders need to hold since the 2008 financial crisis, and followed stress tests showing they would be able to withstand a crisis scenario with unemployment doubling, house prices plummeting and the economy contracting by 5%.
AI bubble fears
The Bank said the growth of the AI sector in the next five years would be fuelled by trillions of dollars of debt, raising financial stability risks if the value of the companies falls.
It cited industry figures forecasting spending on AI infrastructure could top $5tn (£3.8tn) and said much of this would be funded by AI firms themselves, but around half would come from outside sources, mostly through debt.
“Deeper links between AI firms and credit markets, and increasing interconnections between those firms, mean that, should an asset price correction occur, losses on lending could increase financial stability risks,” it said.
The Bank of England is the latest institution to sound the alarm over a potential crash in the value of AI firms reminiscent of previous incidents such as the dotcom bubble.
Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of US bank JP Morgan, told the BBC in October he was “far more worried than others” about the risk of a serious market correction in the coming years.
The International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development have also warned of price corrections.
The dotcom booms refers to a period in the late 1990s, during which the values of early internet companies surged on a wave of optimism for what was then a new technology, before the bubble burst in early 2000 – with many share prices collapsing.
This led to some companies going bust, resulting in job losses.
A drop in share prices can also hit the value of people’s savings including their pension funds.
Fears over an AI-related stock market correction come as Chancellor Rachel Reeves used her Budget to encourage savers to pile cash into stocks and shares by reducing the amounts which can be saved in cash Isas.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has previously raised fears about a potential financial crash, warning after the collapse of two US companies that “alarm bells” were ringing.
On Tuesday he said the AI sector in the US is “very concentrated”, making up a large portion of the value of the country’s stock market.
But he added: “There is a difference to the dotcom situation in that these companies have got positive cash flows, they are not created on hope.
“But, as we see, and we saw last week in the debate about whether Google is moving onto Nvidia’s patch, it doesn’t mean to say everybody is going to win, it doesn’t mean to say everyone is going to win equally.
“It is important to be clear it is not inconsistent, quite consistent in fact that AI turns out to be the next general purpose technology in terms of prompting productivity growth across economies. I hope it is, but we’ll see.”
Global risks
The central bank also said the risks to financial stability had risen during 2025, citing geopolitical tensions, global trade wars and rising borrowing costs for governments.
It said growing tension between countries had specifically raised the prospect of cyber-attacks and other disruptions.
After assessing High Street lenders’ ability to cope in a crisis situation, the Bank has proposed lowering the benchmark for Tier 1 capital requirements for firms to 13% from the 14% level it has been at since 2015. The requirement refers to the buffer banks must hold in case of any losses from risky lending.
The central bank said this would still give firms a £60bn buffer against their minimum requirements so they would be able to continue lending to households and companies.
The Bank’s Financial Policy Committee said lowering the threshold would make it easier for lenders to offer loans to households and businesses. The changes are due to come into force in 2027.
Elsewhere in the financial stability report, the Bank warned homeowners coming off fixed-rate mortgages in the next two years face a £64 increase in their monthly repayments.
The central bank said the typical owner-occupier coming off a fixed rate would see an 8% jump in their bills as the impact of higher interest rates continues to bite.
In total, 3.9 million people, or 43% of mortgage holders, are expected to refinance at higher rates by 2028, the Bank said.
But a third will see their monthly payments fall in that period, it added, with interest rates having fallen significantly since a spike in 2022.
The Bank of England’s base rate, which influences the cost of borrowing for individuals, including mortgages, has fallen from 5.25% in 2024 to its current 4%.
Business
Ticketmaster parent Live Nation reaches settlement with Department of Justice over antitrust concerns
Signs are seen at the Live Nation NYC headquarters on May 23, 2024 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
Live Nation Entertainment has reached a settlement with the Department of Justice over antitrust concerns surrounding its Ticketmaster platform, a senior DOJ official said Monday.
The settlement would see Ticketmaster unwind some of its exclusivity agreements with musical artists and open up the ticketing industry to greater competition. It still needs approval by more than 20 states that had filed suit and by the court.
As part of the settlement, Ticketmaster will offer a standalone third-party ticketing system for other companies like SeatGeek to use its technology. Live Nation has also agreed to divest at least 13 of its amphitheaters and will no longer be able to require artists to use other Live Nation products tied to its venues. It has also agreed to pay roughly $280 million in civil penalties.
Shares of Live Nation rose 5% in morning trading. Live Nation and Ticketmaster did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Ticketmaster has long faced criticism that its dominance in the live events and ticketing space pushes up prices for consumers. The company has come under heightened scrutiny in recent years from fans who argue that it’s become harder and pricier to snag coveted event tickets.
In 2022, the backlash boiled over when the rollout of tickets for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour was mishandled, leading to a probe of the company. And in 2024, the DOJ — along with more than two dozen states — sued to break up Live Nation and Ticketmaster, which merged in 2010.
In September, Live Nation was separately sued by the Federal Trade Commission over what the agency called “illegal” ticket resale tactics. The FTC said Ticketmaster controls roughly 80% of major concert venues’ ticketing.
In a Monday statement, New York Attorney General Letitia James said her office would continue to fight against Live Nation’s alleged monopoly even after its agreement with the DOJ.
“The settlement recently announced with the U.S. Department of Justice fails to address the monopoly at the center of this case, and would benefit Live Nation at the expense of consumers. We cannot agree to it,” said James, who is joined by the attorneys general of more than 20 other states.
Business
How the Iran war may affect your bills and finances
The conflict in the Middle East could raise the cost of petrol, household energy bills and even food.
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Business
Oil crosses $100 mark amid Iran war as violence erupts at petrol pumps in South Asia
Oil prices surged past $115 (£86.47) a barrel on Monday as fuel shortages sparked rationing and violence in South Asia, as the Iran war continues to choke the world’s most critical energy route.
Brent crude rose to $115.31 (£86.47) a barrel, up 24 per cent from Friday’s close and the highest since 2022, as the US–Israeli war with Iran entered its second week. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to most operators.
West Texas Intermediate crude hit $116.33 (£87.41), up 28 per cent. Brent has not traded at current levels since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The surge in energy prices is causing rationing and closure of petrol stations in import-dependent South Asia.
In Sialkot, Pakistan, a man opened fire at a petrol station on Saturday after workers refused to fill jerry cans, killing one worker and critically injuring two others. Separately, a man was killed in Karachi in another fuel queue altercation.
Pakistan raised petrol prices by PKR55 (£0.15) per litre on Friday, the largest ever single increase, to PKR321 per litre, after weeks of warnings that its exposure to Hormuz-linked supply was among the highest of any emerging market.
In Bangladesh, authorities on Monday brought forward university Eid holidays as an emergency measure to cut electricity use and ease fuel pressure after Qatar suspended Liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries.
Officials said university campuses consume large amounts of electricity for residential halls, classrooms, laboratories and air conditioning, and the early closure would help ease pressure on the country’s strained power system.
Five of the country’s six fertiliser factories have also closed.
Bangladesh already imposed daily fuel limits last week – motorcyclists are capped at two litres, private cars at 10 – after panic buying emptied stations across the country.
“About 95 per cent of our fuel must be imported,” Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation said, urging consumers not to hoard.
Meanwhile, bigger economies are also affected. Japan said on Sunday it had instructed a national oil reserve storage site to prepare for a possible release of crude, the first such directive since 2022.
Japan holds 254 days of emergency reserves, one of the highest, but sources 95 per cent of its crude from the Middle East, with roughly 70 per cent shipped through the Strait.
India, which imports more than 88 per cent of its oil, sought to calm concerns. Oil minister Hardeep Puri said the country held “sufficient stocks” and directed all LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) refineries, public and private, to increase production.
Analysts are now warning that oil prices could exceed $150 a barrel – a level that could be catastrophic for the global economy.
“Oil prices have now gathered all the ingredients for a perfect storm,” Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler, told Reuters. “If the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists for another one to two weeks, we could see prices move toward $130–150 a barrel.”
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said Pakistan and India are the most vulnerable major emerging markets, citing their energy import dependence and high exposure to Hormuz. Egypt and Turkey, it said, face the greatest risk outside the Gulf because of fragile external positions and large energy subsidies.
The shortages come as Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE cut oil production as storage tanks fill due to the reduced ability to export through the Strait.
Iran‘s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned that the war’s impact on the oil industry “would spiral” after Israeli strikes on oil depots in Tehran and a petroleum transfer terminal killed four people overnight.
Roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil, about 20 per cent of global supply, typically pass through the Strait each day, according to Rystad Energy.
The energy minister of Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG producers, warned that it expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks if the Iran conflict continues.
“Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues,” Saad al-Kaabi told FT on Friday. “All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure.”
US energy secretary Chris Wright told CNN on Sunday that gas prices would be back under $3 a gallon “before too long”, describing the spike as “a weeks, not a months thing”.
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