Business
Can India Trust Chairman XI? How China Is Still A Long Term Systematic Threat Despite Recent Thaw In Relationship
New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s presence at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit signaled a subtle recalibration in New Delhi’s approach towards Beijing. His participation — and the brief exchange with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines — underscored attempts by both sides to stabilise relations after years of border tensions and trade friction. While no major breakthroughs were announced, the optics of Modi’s visit have been read as an opening for a cautious thaw, setting the stage for renewed diplomatic and economic engagement between the two Asian giants.
Yet, for Indian policymakers, history casts a long shadow over such gestures. Since the 1950s, India has experienced several episodes where agreements or friendly overtures with China were followed by sharp reversals or conflict. The most striking example remains the 1962 Sino-Indian war, which erupted just a few years after the “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai” phase and the signing of the Panchsheel Agreement. Subsequent decades have witnessed repeated flare-ups despite ongoing talks and confidence-building measures — from the Sumdorong Chu standoff in 1987, to the Doklam crisis in 2017, and the deadly Galwan clashes in 2020. Each time, India’s expectations of a stable border were shaken by Chinese military maneuvers, reinforcing a pattern of mistrust.
This legacy of caution influences not just border diplomacy but also how India views its massive trade relationship with China. As geopolitical tensions ease tentatively, economic realities remain stark. China’s manufacturing overcapacity poses a serious threat to the Indian economy by undermining local industries, widening trade deficits, and destabilizing market conditions in several sectors. Despite India’s rapid industrial growth and emerging status as a manufacturing hub, the flood of cheap, subsidized Chinese goods disrupts domestic markets and jeopardies the viability of homegrown businesses.
China produces about 30 percent of the world’s manufactured goods but consumes only around 18 percent domestically. This mismatch fuels an export push, often at low prices backed by state subsidies. India has borne the brunt: a trade deficit of about USD 99.2 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year, and intense pressure on sectors such as steel, solar panels and electric vehicles. Cheaper Chinese imports erode market share, squeeze profit margins, and slow domestic industrial growth — directly threatening the government’s “Make in India” ambitions.
At the same time, global supply chains are diversifying. Many multinational firms are adopting a “China-plus-one” strategy that includes India, recognizing its large workforce, improving digital infrastructure and strategic location. To convert this window into a long-term advantage, India must couple its diplomatic outreach with robust trade policy actions, targeted industrial reforms and stronger WTO-aligned measures to counter dumping and subsidies.
The current establishment has consistently approached trade with China with caution, fully aware of the risks posed by overreliance on a complex and often unpredictable partner. This cautious stance has allowed India to benefit from engagement while minimizing vulnerabilities. Moving forward, this approach must remain steadfast: any thaw in geopolitical tensions should be matched by strategic vigilance in economic dealings. Strengthening domestic industries, diversifying supply chains, and learning from past breaches of trust will ensure that India’s engagement with China continues to serve national interests, rather than exposing the country to avoidable risks. Only by balancing opportunity with prudence can India maintain leverage and safeguard its long-term economic and strategic goals.
Business
Tariff jitters: US consumer confidence slips in December; inflation and jobs worries deepen – The Times of India
US consumer confidence weakened in December, sliding to its lowest level since President Donald Trump rolled out sweeping tariffs earlier this year, as households grew more anxious about high prices, trade levies and job prospects, according to a survey by the Conference Board.The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell 3.8 points to 89.1 in December from an upwardly revised 92.9 in November, AP reported. The reading is close to the 85.7 level recorded in April, when the Trump administration introduced import taxes on key US trading partners, AP reported.Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions saw a sharper drop. The present situation index fell 9.5 points to 116.8, reflecting growing unease about inflation and employment conditions. Write-in responses to the survey showed that prices and inflation remained the biggest concern for consumers, alongside tariffs.Short-term expectations for income, business conditions and the labour market were little changed at 70.7, but remained well below 80 — a threshold that can signal a recession ahead. This was the 11th straight month that expectations stayed under that level.Perceptions of the job market also weakened. The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” fell to 26.7% in December from 28.2% in November, while those who said jobs were “hard to get” rose to 20.8% from 20.1%.The softer sentiment follows recent labour market data showing mixed signals. Government figures released last week showed the US economy added 64,000 jobs in November after losing 105,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% last month, its highest level since 2021.Economists say the labour market is stuck in a “low hire, low fire” phase, as companies remain cautious amid uncertainty over tariffs and the lingering effects of high interest rates. Since March, average monthly job creation has slowed to about 35,000, down from 71,000 in the year ended March. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said he suspects those figures could be revised even lower, AP reported.
Business
US economy grows at fastest pace in two years
The US economy picked up speed over the three months to September, as consumer spending jumped and exports increased.
The world’s largest economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.3%, up from 3.8% in the previous quarter. That was better than expected, and marked the strongest growth in two years.
The figures offer a clearer picture of the state of the US economy heading into the end of the year, after data collection had been delayed by the US government shutdown.
The report showed consumer spending rising by 3.5%, compared with 2.5% in the previous quarter.
Business
Fish and chip shop offers 100 free Christmas meals in Southampton
“It’s just a way of us giving back to the community,” says a fish and chip shop owner, who is giving away 100 free meals on Christmas Eve.
Raj Khaira, from Southampton, has owned Top Catch fish and chips in Shirley for five years and says he wants to support lonely people in the area.
He says he feels lucky to have a big family but knows for some customers a conversation with a shopkeeper might be the only one they have some days.
He says the shop will give portions of sausage and chips to those in need as a way of “giving back to the people who haven’t got family around them and sometimes can’t afford a hot meal”.
Mr Khaira speaks about working in business all of his life and how much he enjoys meeting “different people every day, from different backgrounds”.
“I’ve done it since I was a young kid so it’s all I really know,” he says.
He adds that many of his customers are elderly and do not have connections over the festive period.
“Christmas for majority of us is probably going to be a joyful and busy day but for some people it’s probably going to be a quiet day,” he says.
After posting about the plans to donate on social media he received a lot of publicity and Mr Khaira is prepared to “probably do more than” 100 meals.
He says the shop has already organised a toy and present drop off to Southampton hospitals this December, with many of the donations coming from customers.
He says: “We’re only where we are as a busy shop because of our community and our lovely customers that come in and sometimes you’ve got to give back and I’m happy to do that.”
Looking back on some of the negative news reported in Shirley earlier this year with the rise in anti-social behaviour in the area, he admits he had suffered.
His shop window was smashed in the summer, but he says: “Christmas time lets us just try and forget that for a minute and just try and have a good time, and reflect back on the year and hopefully next year is going to be a better one.”
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