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Can India Trust Chairman XI? How China Is Still A Long Term Systematic Threat Despite Recent Thaw In Relationship

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Can India Trust Chairman XI? How China Is Still A Long Term Systematic Threat Despite Recent Thaw In Relationship


New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s presence at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit signaled a subtle recalibration in New Delhi’s approach towards Beijing. His participation — and the brief exchange with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines — underscored attempts by both sides to stabilise relations after years of border tensions and trade friction. While no major breakthroughs were announced, the optics of Modi’s visit have been read as an opening for a cautious thaw, setting the stage for renewed diplomatic and economic engagement between the two Asian giants.

Yet, for Indian policymakers, history casts a long shadow over such gestures. Since the 1950s, India has experienced several episodes where agreements or friendly overtures with China were followed by sharp reversals or conflict. The most striking example remains the 1962 Sino-Indian war, which erupted just a few years after the “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai” phase and the signing of the Panchsheel Agreement. Subsequent decades have witnessed repeated flare-ups despite ongoing talks and confidence-building measures — from the Sumdorong Chu standoff in 1987, to the Doklam crisis in 2017, and the deadly Galwan clashes in 2020. Each time, India’s expectations of a stable border were shaken by Chinese military maneuvers, reinforcing a pattern of mistrust.

This legacy of caution influences not just border diplomacy but also how India views its massive trade relationship with China. As geopolitical tensions ease tentatively, economic realities remain stark. China’s manufacturing overcapacity poses a serious threat to the Indian economy by undermining local industries, widening trade deficits, and destabilizing market conditions in several sectors. Despite India’s rapid industrial growth and emerging status as a manufacturing hub, the flood of cheap, subsidized Chinese goods disrupts domestic markets and jeopardies the viability of homegrown businesses.

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China produces about 30 percent of the world’s manufactured goods but consumes only around 18 percent domestically. This mismatch fuels an export push, often at low prices backed by state subsidies. India has borne the brunt: a trade deficit of about USD 99.2 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year, and intense pressure on sectors such as steel, solar panels and electric vehicles. Cheaper Chinese imports erode market share, squeeze profit margins, and slow domestic industrial growth — directly threatening the government’s “Make in India” ambitions.

At the same time, global supply chains are diversifying. Many multinational firms are adopting a “China-plus-one” strategy that includes India, recognizing its large workforce, improving digital infrastructure and strategic location. To convert this window into a long-term advantage, India must couple its diplomatic outreach with robust trade policy actions, targeted industrial reforms and stronger WTO-aligned measures to counter dumping and subsidies.

The current establishment has consistently approached trade with China with caution, fully aware of the risks posed by overreliance on a complex and often unpredictable partner. This cautious stance has allowed India to benefit from engagement while minimizing vulnerabilities. Moving forward, this approach must remain steadfast: any thaw in geopolitical tensions should be matched by strategic vigilance in economic dealings. Strengthening domestic industries, diversifying supply chains, and learning from past breaches of trust will ensure that India’s engagement with China continues to serve national interests, rather than exposing the country to avoidable risks. Only by balancing opportunity with prudence can India maintain leverage and safeguard its long-term economic and strategic goals.

 

 



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Saudi Arabia pumps 7 million bpd via east-west pipeline amid Hormuz disruption – The Times of India

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Saudi Arabia pumps 7 million bpd via east-west pipeline amid Hormuz disruption – The Times of India


Saudi Arabia has brought its East-West pipeline into full operation, pushing 7 million barrels of oil a day through the route as it works to maintain supplies following the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a person familiar with the matter said. The pipeline, which runs across the kingdom to the Red Sea, has become central to efforts to keep exports moving. Oil shipments are now being rerouted to Yanbu, where tankers are loading crude for international markets, offering a crucial alternative at a time when the main passage has been disrupted, Bloomberg reported. According to the person cited by the agency, crude shipments from Yanbu have reached about 5 million barrels a day. In addition, between 700,000 and 900,000 barrels a day of refined products are being exported. Of the total volume transported via the pipeline, around 2 million barrels a day is directed to domestic refineries.Though, even at full capacity, the route does not fully replace the volumes previously shipped through Hormuz, which handled roughly 15 million barrels a day before the war, the availability of this alternative has helped limit the extent of price increases compared to earlier supply disruptions. Market concerns are now shifting towards the Red Sea after Yemen’s Houthis said they are entering the war. While there has been no indication of plans to target vessels passing through the Red Sea or the Bab El-Mandeb strait, the group has in the past threatened shipping in the region using drones and missiles. Saudi Arabia had long prepared for a scenario in which Hormuz could be shut. Its contingency plan was put into action within hours of the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with flows along the east-west pipeline increasing steadily since then. The pipeline stretches more than 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) from oil-producing regions in the east of the country to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. It was originally developed in response to risks highlighted during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, when tanker attacks disrupted movement through the Strait, though the current situation has led to a near-closure on a scale not seen before.



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From office desks to dark streets: How the oil crunch is reshaping daily life in different nations – The Times of India

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From office desks to dark streets: How the oil crunch is reshaping daily life in different nations – The Times of India


A month into the Middle East conflict, its ripple effects are felt across economies worldwide. The crisis was triggered on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, setting off a chain of events that has tightened Tehran’s grip over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea passage, linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, remains one of the world’s most critical energy routes. At its narrowest, it spans just 29 nautical miles, with limited navigable channels for shipping.Carrying around 20 million barrels of oil daily, nearly a quarter of global seaborne trade, any disruption here has far-reaching consequences. As supplies come under strain, countries are scrambling to manage the fallout while cushioning consumers through a mix of policy responses. While some have raised fuel prices, others restructured taxes to protect consumers.

Vietnam

Vietnam consumers have breathed a sigh of relief as the country has lowered fuel prices. Faced with a sharp spike in fuel costs, Vietnam rolled out emergency measures to bring costs under control. Authorities have suspended environmental protection taxes on petrol, diesel and aviation fuel until mid-April, in a bid to steady the domestic market. The trade ministry described the step as “an urgent and effective solution to stabilize the petroleum market and ensure national energy security amidst the escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which is creating the ‘biggest energy bottleneck ever’.” The move has led to a steep fall in prices, with petrol dropping by roughly 26% and diesel by more than 15% after earlier surges.

Venezuela

In Venezuela, prolonged high temperatures have intensified pressure on an already strained power system, prompting the government to scale back activity. Interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced a week-long suspension of work across the public sector, including education, as part of an electricity-saving drive. “During this Holy Week, I want to announce that I have decreed days off on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for the entire education sector,” she said, adding that the country had endured “45 days of high temperatures.” While essential services will remain operational, the step reflects ongoing challenges in managing electricity demand.

India

In India, the government has taken a range of steps to cushion consumers and companies from the ongoing energy supply crisis. With refining costs climbing sharply, the government reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each, despite the impact on state revenues. At the same time, export duties were introduced on diesel and aviation turbine fuel to manage supply pressures. Officials insisted there is no shortage of petrol, diesel or LPG, dismissing claims of disruption as a “coordinated misinformation campaign.” Domestic LPG availability remains stable, with production increased and states asked to expand commercial distribution.

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Pakistan

Pakistan is facing mounting pressure from rising fuel costs, with the government adjusting prices selectively while trying to shield consumers. Kerosene prices have been increased by PKR 4.66 per litre to PKR 433.40, effective March 28, even as petrol and diesel rates remain unchanged at PKR 321.17 and PKR 335.86 per litre. Authorities said the decision aims to protect consumers from global price swings, with the state absorbing part of the burden through payments of PKR 95.59 per litre on petrol and PKR 203.88 per litre on diesel to oil marketing companies.At the same time, aviation fuel prices have surged sharply, rising for the fifth time in 28 days. A latest increase of PKR 5 per litre has pushed jet fuel to a record PKR 476.97 per litre, up from PKR 188 at the start of March — a jump of PKR 288. Airlines have already raised fares, with domestic one-way tickets on routes such as Karachi-Islamabad and Karachi-Lahore reaching up to PKR 40,000, while “chance seat” fares have surged by as much as 150%. Amid these pressures, work patterns are also adjusting in response to the energy strain, with measures aimed at reducing overall fuel consumption forming part of the wider response.

Egypt

Egypt has introduced a series of temporary restrictions to reduce energy consumption as fuel costs climb. Retail outlets, restaurants and cafes are now required to shut by 21:00 each night, alongside measures such as reduced street lighting and limited remote working. The government termed these “exceptional measures” in response to mounting pressure on energy supplies. Egyptian PM Mostafa Madbouly said that the country’s petrol expenditure had more than doubled in recent months. Although tourism-related businesses are exempt, the wider economy is feeling the strain, particularly due to reliance on imported fuel.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is tightening energy use as supply disruptions continue to strain the country’s fuel system. With around 60 percent of its energy imported and limited reserves covering barely a month, authorities have reintroduced a QR-based rationing system. Weekly limits have been set, including eight litres for motorbikes, 20 for tuk-tuks, 25 for cars, 100 litres of diesel for buses and 200 for lorries. Fuel prices have also risen by about 33 percent since the start of the war, adding pressure on households.To curb consumption, the government has introduced a no-work-on-Wednesday policy, shutting offices and schools on that day. Alongside fuel shortages, Sri Lankan citizens are also struggling with disrupted fertiliser supplies which could push food prices higher, with estimates pointing to a potential 15% increase, further compounding the cost-of-living strain.



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India opposes China-led IFD pact’s inclusion; flags risks to WTO framework and core principles – The Times of India

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India opposes China-led IFD pact’s inclusion; flags risks to WTO framework and core principles – The Times of India


India on Saturday said it has strongly opposed the China-led Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement being incorporated into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) framework, flagging concerns over its systemic implications, PTI reported.The issue was raised at the ongoing 14th ministerial conference (MC14) of the WTO in Yaounde, Cameroon, where Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said such a move could weaken the institution’s foundational structure.“Incorporation of the IFD agreement risks eroding the functional limits of the WTO and undermining its foundational principles,” Goyal said in a social media post.“At #WTOMC14, drawing inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi ji’s philosophy of Truth prevailing over conformity, India showed the courage to stand alone on the contentious issue of the IFD Agreement and did not agree to its incorporation into the WTO framework as an Annex 4 Agreement,” he said.Annex 4 of the WTO Agreement contains Plurilateral Trade Agreements that are binding only on members that have accepted them, unlike multilateral agreements which apply to all members.Goyal said that as part of WTO reform discussions, members are deliberating on guardrails and legal safeguards for plurilateral agreements before integrating any such outcomes into the framework.“In view of the systemic issue at hand, India showed openness to have good faith, comprehensive discussions and constructive engagement under the WTO Reform Agenda,” he added.India had also opposed the pact during the WTO’s 13th ministerial conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi.The Investment Facilitation for Development proposal was first mooted in 2017 by China and a group of countries that rely significantly on Chinese investments, including those with sovereign wealth funds. The agreement, if adopted, would be binding only on signatory members.



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