Business
Casino Math Can Power Your Portfolio: How Investors Can Win The Risk–Reward Game
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Winning more trades doesn’t mean winning more money. Alok Jain says long-term success comes from casino math—small losses, big winners
Casino Math
Investors often fixate on being “right” in the stock market by chasing the highest possible number of winning trades. But according to Alok Jain, founder of Weekend Investing, true long-term success in the markets comes from a counterintuitive principle: casino math. Addressing investors, Jain said the same probability-driven logic that enables casinos to earn billions can also help individuals build stronger and more profitable portfolios.
To explain the idea, Jain began with how casinos operate despite occasionally paying out massive jackpots. “A 25-year-old software engineer wins $39 million after betting just $100. Someone else wins $3 million on a $3 bet. Yet casinos continue to thrive because they focus on managing risk and reward—not on win rates,” he said.
In a typical setup, a casino might allow players to win seven out of 10 games. Even with that apparent disadvantage, the casino still profits because its losses are small while its gains are large. For instance, if the casino wins three rounds earning ₹100 each (₹300 total) but loses seven rounds losing ₹30 per round (₹210), it still makes a profit of ₹90. “The math defies intuition,” Jain explained, “but this is the essence of risk–reward.”
He then translated this concept into personal investing using a comparison between two investors—Ram and Sham. Ram wins 75% of his trades but settles for small gains while suffering large losses. Sham, in contrast, wins only 25% of his trades, but his winners are large and his losses are tightly controlled. At the end of the year, Ram ends up with just a 5% return, while Sham earns 13%. “The investor with more losing trades actually makes more money. That’s the power of reward overpowering risk,” Jain noted.
Jain said many investors behave like Ram because of loss aversion, a behavioural bias where losses hurt far more than equivalent gains feel good. This leads people to hold on to losing stocks in the hope of recovery, while booking profits too early on winning positions. “We deceive ourselves,” he said. “A stock falling from ₹100 to ₹60 is treated as temporary. Investors convince themselves it will bounce back, even as the damage keeps increasing.”
The impact of deep losses can be severe, Jain warned. A 50% fall requires a 100% gain just to recover. Falling another 30–40% pushes investors into an almost unrecoverable “ditch.” The core principle, he stressed, is simple: cut losses early and let winners run.
Jain also shared real data from a 242-trade systematic momentum strategy. Even though losing trades were higher than winning ones (52% losers versus 48% winners), the average winning trade delivered 25% returns, while average losses were capped at 9%. A handful of multi-bagger stocks—posting gains of 144%, 219% and even 298%—accounted for most of the portfolio’s overall performance. “Just like the Pareto principle, 20% of trades generate 80% of the returns,” he said.
The central takeaway, Jain emphasized, is that a high win rate does not guarantee profitability—risk–reward discipline does. “Don’t cling to losing stocks. Don’t fear rising stocks. Use stop-losses, churn smartly and allow the math to work in your favour,” he advised.
He urged investors to introspect on their behavioural biases and adopt systematic investing approaches that prioritise survival, consistency and large winners—rather than chasing bragging rights based on hit rates alone.
Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a…Read More
Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a… Read More
November 30, 2025, 10:58 IST
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Business
India’s $5 Trillion Economy Push Explained: Why Modi Govt Wants To Merge 12 Banks Into 4 Mega ‘World-Class’ Lending Giants
India’s Public Sector Banks Merger: The Centre is mulling over consolidating public-sector banks, and officials involved in the process say the long-term plan could eventually bring down the number of state-owned lenders from 12 to possibly just 4. The goal is to build a banking system that is large enough in scale, has deeper capital strength and is prepared to meet the credit needs of a fast-growing economy.
The minister explained that bigger banks are better equipped to support large-scale lending and long-term projects. “The country’s economy is moving rapidly toward the $5 trillion mark. The government is active in building bigger banks that can meet rising requirements,” she said.
Why India Wants Larger Banks
Sitharaman recently confirmed that the government and the Reserve Bank of India have already begun detailed conversations on another round of mergers. She said the focus is on creating “world-class” banks that can support India’s expanding industries, rising infrastructure investments and overall credit demand.
She clarified that this is not only about merging institutions. The government and RBI are working on strengthening the entire banking ecosystem so that banks grow naturally and operate in a stable environment.
According to her, the core aim is to build stronger, more efficient and globally competitive banks that can help sustain India’s growth momentum.
At present, the country has a total of 12 public sector banks: the State Bank of India (SBI), the Punjab National Bank (PNB), the Bank of Baroda, the Canara Bank, the Union Bank of India, the Bank of India, the Indian Bank, the Central Bank of India, the Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) and the UCO Bank.
What Happens To Employees After Merger?
Whenever bank mergers are discussed, employees become anxious. A merger does not only combine balance sheets; it also brings together different work cultures, internal systems and employee expectations.
In the 1990s and early 2000s, several mergers caused discomfort among staff, including dissatisfaction over new roles, delayed promotions and uncertainty about reporting structures. Some officers who were promoted before mergers found their seniority diluted afterward, which created further frustration.
The finance minister addressed the concerns, saying that the government and the RBI are working together on the merger plan. She stressed that earlier rounds of consolidation had been successful. She added that the country now needs large, global-quality banks “where every customer issue can be resolved”. The focus, she said, is firmly on building world-class institutions.
‘No Layoffs, No Branch Closures’
She made one point unambiguous: no employee will lose their job due to the upcoming merger phase. She said that mergers are part of a natural process of strengthening banks, and this will not affect job security.
She also assured that no branches will be closed and no bank will be shut down as part of the consolidation exercise.
India last carried out a major consolidation drive in 2019-20, reducing the number of public-sector banks from 21 to 12. That round improved the financial health of many lenders.
With the government preparing for the next phase, the goal is clear. India wants large and reliable banks that can support a rapidly growing economy and meet the needs of a country expanding faster than ever.
Business
Stock market holidays in December: When will NSE, BSE remain closed? Check details – The Times of India
Stock market holidays for December: As November comes to a close and the final month of the year begins, investors will want to know on which days trading sessions will be there and on which days stock markets are closed. are likely keeping a close eye on year-end portfolio adjustments, global cues, and corporate earnings.For this year, the only major, away from normal scheduled market holidays in December is Christmas, observed on Thursday, December 25. On this day, Indian stock markets, including the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE), will remain closed across equity, derivatives, and securities lending and borrowing (SLB) segments. Trading in currency and interest rate derivatives segments will continue as usual.Markets are expected to reopen on Friday, December 26, as investors return to monitor global developments and finalize year-end positioning. Apart from weekends, Christmas is the only scheduled market holiday this month, making December relatively quiet compared with other festive months, with regards to stock markets.The last trading session in November, which was November 28 (next two days being the weekend) ended flat. BSE Sensex slipped 13.71 points, or 0.02 per cent, to settle at 85,706.67, after hitting an intra-day high of 85,969.89 and a low of 85,577.82, a swing of 392.07 points. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty fell 12.60 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 26,202.95, halting its two-day rally.
Business
North Tyneside GP says debt stress causing mental health issues
A GP says patients are presenting with mental health problems because of stress they feel over their levels of personal debt.
According to Citizens Advice, north-east England has the second highest number of people who require professional assistance with debt problems – only London is higher.
Debt charity StepChange said in 2024 the highest concentration of their clients were in the North East, with 37 clients per 10,000 adults.
Dr Kamlesh Sreekissoon, who works as a GP in North Tyneside, said people were juggling “three or four jobs” in the build up to Christmas in order to manage and subsequently struggling with their mental health.
The most common reason for personal debt as reported by Stepchange’s North East clients is a rise in the cost of living (19.3%) and a lack of control over finances (19%).
Both these statistics outstrip the UK figures of 17.7% and 17.9% respectively.
Citizens Advice said thousands of people were falling deeper into debt to meet the cost of basic essentials such as food and fuel, rather than luxuries, but that people also felt under pressure to provide for Christmas.
Dr Sreekissoon said the stress caused by the debt people faced was compounded by issues relating to their family situations.
“At this time of year you will see people juggling three or four jobs, also after caring for elderly relatives, parents, [they’re] stressed out and unfortunately struggling with their mental health,” said Dr Sreekissoon.
He said the debt his patients described was not caused by buying unnecessary things, but by simply struggling to make ends meet.
“It’s more the basics,” he said. “I see people taking on working long hours, doing two or three jobs, and just being kind of stretched out, not being able to see their kids, and that just burns people out which is really sad to see”.
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