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Casino Math Can Power Your Portfolio: How Investors Can Win The Risk–Reward Game

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Casino Math Can Power Your Portfolio: How Investors Can Win The Risk–Reward Game


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Winning more trades doesn’t mean winning more money. Alok Jain says long-term success comes from casino math—small losses, big winners

Casino Math

Investors often fixate on being “right” in the stock market by chasing the highest possible number of winning trades. But according to Alok Jain, founder of Weekend Investing, true long-term success in the markets comes from a counterintuitive principle: casino math. Addressing investors, Jain said the same probability-driven logic that enables casinos to earn billions can also help individuals build stronger and more profitable portfolios.

To explain the idea, Jain began with how casinos operate despite occasionally paying out massive jackpots. “A 25-year-old software engineer wins $39 million after betting just $100. Someone else wins $3 million on a $3 bet. Yet casinos continue to thrive because they focus on managing risk and reward—not on win rates,” he said.

In a typical setup, a casino might allow players to win seven out of 10 games. Even with that apparent disadvantage, the casino still profits because its losses are small while its gains are large. For instance, if the casino wins three rounds earning ₹100 each (₹300 total) but loses seven rounds losing ₹30 per round (₹210), it still makes a profit of ₹90. “The math defies intuition,” Jain explained, “but this is the essence of risk–reward.”

He then translated this concept into personal investing using a comparison between two investors—Ram and Sham. Ram wins 75% of his trades but settles for small gains while suffering large losses. Sham, in contrast, wins only 25% of his trades, but his winners are large and his losses are tightly controlled. At the end of the year, Ram ends up with just a 5% return, while Sham earns 13%. “The investor with more losing trades actually makes more money. That’s the power of reward overpowering risk,” Jain noted.

Jain said many investors behave like Ram because of loss aversion, a behavioural bias where losses hurt far more than equivalent gains feel good. This leads people to hold on to losing stocks in the hope of recovery, while booking profits too early on winning positions. “We deceive ourselves,” he said. “A stock falling from ₹100 to ₹60 is treated as temporary. Investors convince themselves it will bounce back, even as the damage keeps increasing.”

The impact of deep losses can be severe, Jain warned. A 50% fall requires a 100% gain just to recover. Falling another 30–40% pushes investors into an almost unrecoverable “ditch.” The core principle, he stressed, is simple: cut losses early and let winners run.

Jain also shared real data from a 242-trade systematic momentum strategy. Even though losing trades were higher than winning ones (52% losers versus 48% winners), the average winning trade delivered 25% returns, while average losses were capped at 9%. A handful of multi-bagger stocks—posting gains of 144%, 219% and even 298%—accounted for most of the portfolio’s overall performance. “Just like the Pareto principle, 20% of trades generate 80% of the returns,” he said.

The central takeaway, Jain emphasized, is that a high win rate does not guarantee profitability—risk–reward discipline does. “Don’t cling to losing stocks. Don’t fear rising stocks. Use stop-losses, churn smartly and allow the math to work in your favour,” he advised.

He urged investors to introspect on their behavioural biases and adopt systematic investing approaches that prioritise survival, consistency and large winners—rather than chasing bragging rights based on hit rates alone.

Aparna Deb

Aparna Deb

Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a…Read More

Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a… Read More

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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs

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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs



BP has warned it expects to book up to five billion dollars (£3.7 billion) in write-downs across its gas and low-carbon energy division as it also said oil trading had been weak in its final quarter.

The oil giant joined FTSE 100 rival Shell, after it also last week cautioned over a weaker performance from trading, which comes amid a drop in the cost of crude.

BP said Brent crude prices averaged 63.73 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of last year compared with 69.13 dollars a barrel in the previous three months.

Oil prices have slumped in recent weeks, partly driven lower due to US President Donald Trump’s move to oust and detain Venezuela’s leader and lay claim to crude in the region, leading to fears of a supply glut.

In its update ahead of full-year results, BP also said it expects to book a four billion dollar (£3 billion) to five billion dollar (£3.7 billion) impairment in its so-called transition businesses, largely relating to its gas and low-carbon energy division.

But it said further progress had been made in slashing debts, with its net debt falling to between 22 billion and 23 billion dollars (£16.4 billion to £17.1 billion) at the end of 2025, down from 26.1 billion dollars (£19.4 billion) at the end of September.

It comes after the firm’s surprise move last month to appoint Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill as its new chief executive as Murray Auchincloss stepped down after less than two years in the role.

Ms O’Neill will start in the role on April 1, with Carol Howle, current executive vice president of supply, trading and shipping at BP, acting as chief executive on an interim basis until the new boss joins.

Ms O’Neill’s appointment has made history as she will become the first woman to run BP – and also the first to head up a top five global oil company – as well as being the first ever outsider to take on the post at BP.

Shares in BP fell 1% in morning trading on Wednesday after the latest update.



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Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India

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Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India


Real estate developers in Kolkata have urged the Centre to use the Union Budget to recalibrate housing policies to reflect rising land and construction costs, calling for higher tax benefits for homebuyers and a long-pending revision of the affordable housing definition to revive demand, especially in the mid-income segment, PTI reported.With the Budget set to be tabled on February 1, industry players said measures such as revisiting price caps for affordable homes, rationalising GST on under-construction properties and easing approval processes could significantly improve affordability and sales momentum.Sushil Mohta, president of CREDAI West Bengal and chairman of Merlin Group, said reforms must align with current market realities. “Revisiting the affordable housing definition, rationalising housing loan interest deductions and streamlining GST rates will significantly improve affordability and demand, especially for middle-income homebuyers,” he told PTI, adding that a policy push for rental housing and wider access to formal housing finance is crucial amid rapid urbanisation.Mahesh Agarwal, managing director of Purti Realty, said continued policy support through tax rationalisation and infrastructure spending remains critical. “A re-evaluation of affordable housing price limits in line with rising land and construction costs, along with adjustments to GST on under-construction property, will enhance affordability,” he said, stressing that simpler tax frameworks and incentives for first-time buyers would help stabilise the market and speed up project execution.Echoing similar concerns, Merlin Group MD Saket Mohta pointed to sharp increases in construction costs since the introduction of GST in 2017, underscoring the need for further rationalisation. He also called for raising the affordable housing price cap from Rs 45 lakh to around Rs 80–90 lakh and expanding unit size norms. “Mid-income housing will be the key demand driver going into 2026, and supportive tax and policy measures are essential to sustain growth,” he said.Eden Realty MD Arya Sumant said the Budget must strike a balance between fiscal discipline and growth-oriented reforms. “Higher home loan interest deductions for mid-income and first-time buyers, an updated affordable housing definition, GST rationalisation and faster approvals will improve project viability and speed-to-market,” he said, adding that sustained urban infrastructure investment would unlock demand across residential and commercial segments.Sahil Saharia, CEO of Bengal Shristi Infrastructure Development Ltd, said policy focus should shift towards large, integrated developments. “Support for mixed-use townships, rental housing and commercial hubs, along with faster clearances and digital single-window mechanisms, can help create self-sustained urban ecosystems and improve execution efficiency,” he said.Developers said clear and stable policy signals in the Budget could help restore homebuyer confidence, attract long-term capital and ensure sustainable growth for the real estate sector in eastern India.



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Power sector’s circular debt shoots up by Rs223 billion – SUCH TV

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Power sector’s circular debt shoots up by Rs223 billion – SUCH TV



Circular debt in the power sector has increased in the first five months of the ongoing financial year (FY). Sources told that the debt shot up by Rs223 billion since July 2025 to reach Rs1,837 billion in November 2025 within two months of the signing of agreements to reduce the debt by Rs1225 billion.

Despite the fact that the government had signed agreements with banks in September last year to reduce the debt, it increased by Rs144 billion in October and November.

In September, the debt stood at Rs1,693 billion, while it was Rs1,614 billion in June 2025.

Sources informed that compared with November 2024, the debt in November 2025 came down by Rs544 billion.

It was Rs2,381 in November 2024, they added.



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