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Casino Math Can Power Your Portfolio: How Investors Can Win The Risk–Reward Game

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Casino Math Can Power Your Portfolio: How Investors Can Win The Risk–Reward Game


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Winning more trades doesn’t mean winning more money. Alok Jain says long-term success comes from casino math—small losses, big winners

Casino Math

Investors often fixate on being “right” in the stock market by chasing the highest possible number of winning trades. But according to Alok Jain, founder of Weekend Investing, true long-term success in the markets comes from a counterintuitive principle: casino math. Addressing investors, Jain said the same probability-driven logic that enables casinos to earn billions can also help individuals build stronger and more profitable portfolios.

To explain the idea, Jain began with how casinos operate despite occasionally paying out massive jackpots. “A 25-year-old software engineer wins $39 million after betting just $100. Someone else wins $3 million on a $3 bet. Yet casinos continue to thrive because they focus on managing risk and reward—not on win rates,” he said.

In a typical setup, a casino might allow players to win seven out of 10 games. Even with that apparent disadvantage, the casino still profits because its losses are small while its gains are large. For instance, if the casino wins three rounds earning ₹100 each (₹300 total) but loses seven rounds losing ₹30 per round (₹210), it still makes a profit of ₹90. “The math defies intuition,” Jain explained, “but this is the essence of risk–reward.”

He then translated this concept into personal investing using a comparison between two investors—Ram and Sham. Ram wins 75% of his trades but settles for small gains while suffering large losses. Sham, in contrast, wins only 25% of his trades, but his winners are large and his losses are tightly controlled. At the end of the year, Ram ends up with just a 5% return, while Sham earns 13%. “The investor with more losing trades actually makes more money. That’s the power of reward overpowering risk,” Jain noted.

Jain said many investors behave like Ram because of loss aversion, a behavioural bias where losses hurt far more than equivalent gains feel good. This leads people to hold on to losing stocks in the hope of recovery, while booking profits too early on winning positions. “We deceive ourselves,” he said. “A stock falling from ₹100 to ₹60 is treated as temporary. Investors convince themselves it will bounce back, even as the damage keeps increasing.”

The impact of deep losses can be severe, Jain warned. A 50% fall requires a 100% gain just to recover. Falling another 30–40% pushes investors into an almost unrecoverable “ditch.” The core principle, he stressed, is simple: cut losses early and let winners run.

Jain also shared real data from a 242-trade systematic momentum strategy. Even though losing trades were higher than winning ones (52% losers versus 48% winners), the average winning trade delivered 25% returns, while average losses were capped at 9%. A handful of multi-bagger stocks—posting gains of 144%, 219% and even 298%—accounted for most of the portfolio’s overall performance. “Just like the Pareto principle, 20% of trades generate 80% of the returns,” he said.

The central takeaway, Jain emphasized, is that a high win rate does not guarantee profitability—risk–reward discipline does. “Don’t cling to losing stocks. Don’t fear rising stocks. Use stop-losses, churn smartly and allow the math to work in your favour,” he advised.

He urged investors to introspect on their behavioural biases and adopt systematic investing approaches that prioritise survival, consistency and large winners—rather than chasing bragging rights based on hit rates alone.

Aparna Deb

Aparna Deb

Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a…Read More

Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a… Read More

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Labour parliamentarians urge UK Government to oppose Rosebank oil field

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Labour parliamentarians urge UK Government to oppose Rosebank oil field



Labour MPs are among a group of more than 60 parliamentarians to have made public their opposition to the planned Rosebank oil field – with one of Sir Keir Starmer’s backbenchers urging the Government to rule against the development and take a stand “against Trump, Reform and their fossil fuel paymasters”.

Clive Lewis is one of more than 50 MPs at Westminster who have signed a pledge from campaign group Uplift to “oppose the Rosebank oil field” and instead “advocate for a properly funded just transition for oil and gas workers and communities”.

Urging the Government to reject the development, Norwich South MP Mr Lewis said: “We must stand our ground against Trump, Reform and their fossil fuel paymasters.

“Approving an enormous new oil field would mean caving in to their anti-climate, anti-renewables agenda that runs completely counter to our values and our long-term interests.”

Scottish Labour MP Chris Murray, another of the Labour MPs to have signed the pledge, said the decision on Rosebank was “an opportunity for the Government to change course”.

It comes as the UK Government continues to consider whether the development of the oil field can go ahead – with Labour now under mounting pressure after the loss of the Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens on Thursday.

Rosebank, which lies about 80 miles west of Shetland, is the UK’s largest untapped field, containing up to an estimated 300 million barrels of oil.

Drilling there was approved by the Conservative government in 2023 but was then subject to a legal challenge in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling which said the emissions created from burning fossil fuels should be considered when granting permission for new sites.

Now the decision on whether it can proceed lies with Labour ministers – with some 16 Labour MPs having made plain their opposition to the development.

The group includes Mr Lewis, Mr Murray, former Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell and Scottish Labour’s Brian Leishman.

Former Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott have also signed the pledge, along with a number of Liberal Democrat and Green MPs, SNP MP Chris Law, Plaid Cymru’s Liz Saville Roberts and Paul Maskey of Sinn Fein.

In Scotland a number of Labour MSPs have signed the pledge, along with Green MSPs – including the party’s Scottish co-leader Ross Greer – and former SNP health secretary Michael Matheson.

While previous Scottish first ministers Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf made plain their opposition to Rosebank, First Minister John Swinney has insisted the Scottish Government takes a “case-by-case approach” to new oil and gas developments, stressing these should only proceed if found to be compatible with climate change targets.

Mr Lewis said opposing Rosebank would “show that a Labour Government will stand by the promises we made to the country”.

He added: “There are only so many times we can afford to make mistakes and then change course.

“With Rosebank, we have an opportunity to get it right the first time.”

Mr Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, said many locals in his constituency were “deeply concerned about Rosebank and rightly so”.

He added: “Climate change is one of the reasons I came into politics, and opening new oil and gas fields is simply incompatible with our climate commitments.

“With the North Sea’s oil supply dwindling, Scotland’s energy sector must transition to clean energy, or workers risk being left behind.”

Scottish Labour MSP Mercedes Villalba, who has also signed the pledge, argued that “approving projects like Rosebank will lock us into a toxic dependence on volatile, conflict-ridden fossil fuels”.

This would create “another excuse to delay the urgent investment needed to create secure, well-paid jobs for Scotland’s workers”, she added.

Ms Villalba said: “In an increasingly uncertain world, where climate action is relegated in favour of fossil politics, the UK and Scotland must lead the way on the clean energy transition.”

Wera Hobhouse, Liberal Democrat MP for Bath, said people in her constituency and across the country “are already facing the consequences of an increasingly unstable climate”.

Highlighting the impact of flooding and “skyrocketing food prices”, she said that “climate impacts are now a daily reality”.

Ms Hobhouse said: “Extreme weather is damaging crops, putting pressure on farmers, and destroying our precious natural environment.

“We cannot ignore these warning signs.

“A massive new oil field like Rosebank would only make matters worse.

“The emissions would be enormous, locking us into decades more pollution when we should be cutting carbon and unlocking the benefits of cheap, renewable energy.”

Approving the Rosebank development would “make a mockery of Labour’s environmental promises”, she said.

A UK Government spokesperson said: “Our priority is to deliver a fair, orderly and prosperous transition in the North Sea in line with our climate and legal obligations, which drives our clean energy future of energy security, lower bills, and good long-term jobs.”



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UAE stock markets close, trading halted by Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market for two days amid Iran–US–Israel war fallout – The Times of India

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UAE stock markets close, trading halted by Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market for two days amid Iran–US–Israel war fallout – The Times of India


UAE Stock Markets Closed: Regional Conflict Halts Trading on ADX and DFM

In an unprecedented economic response to escalating regional conflict, the United Arab Emirates has announced that its two major financial markets, the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), will remain closed on Monday, March 2 and Tuesday, March 3, 2026. The decision comes as the UAE reels from a series of retaliatory Iranian strikes following coordinated US and Israeli military actions against Iran, which have destabilised Gulf business sentiment and prompted sweeping security and economic precautions.The UAE Capital Markets Authority said that keeping the exchanges closed temporarily is part of its supervisory and regulatory mandate, providing authorities and market participants time to assess the impact of recent events on financial infrastructure and investor confidence. The halt affects equities, derivatives and trading in hundreds of billions of dollars in listed assets and is among the clearest signs yet of economic shockwaves from the regional crisis.

Why UAE stock markets are paused: Regional conflict among Iran–US–Israel disrupts confidence

The closures follow Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Gulf cities and strategic targets, including airports and other infrastructure, after a joint US–Israel offensive. These attacks have not only led to safety measures such as airspace restrictions and travel advisories but also triggered widespread business disruption across the Gulf. Major airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have seen operations halted or altered and commercial hubs from ports to retail centres have felt the strain.

UAE Markets Shut Down: Is This Economic Capitulation to Regional War?

UAE Markets Shut Down: Is This Economic Capitulation to Regional War?

Financial markets are typically among the first economic indicators affected by geopolitical instability. When investors fear prolonged unrest, they often pull funds from equities and seek so-called “safe-haven” assets like gold, sovereign debt or commodities such as oil, especially when conflict threatens critical energy supply corridors like the Strait of Hormuz.

Regional market turmoil and knock-on effects in the Middle East amid Iran–US–Israel clashes

While the UAE exchanges are closed, other Gulf markets that remained open on Sunday experienced significant sell-offs as investors reacted to the turmoil:

  • Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index saw sharp drops before partially recovering as investors weighed conflict risks against energy price gains.
  • Muscat and other regional bourses also slid, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment.
  • In Kuwait, authorities took the rare step of suspending trading indefinitely due to “exceptional circumstances” linked to the same regional tensions.

Financial markets are serving as a barometer of risk and economic confidence and the dramatic moves across the Gulf underscore how intertwined political stability is with economic performance in the region.

What the UAE’s stock market closure means for investors

For both domestic and international investors, the temporary shutdown of ADX and DFM has several implications. Liquidity and price discovery are paused, leaving billions of dollars in listed assets in limbo. Risk premiums on Gulf assets may rise, as traders reassess exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty. Investor sentiment is likely to remain fragile until there are visible signs of de-escalation or credible diplomatic resolutions.Economists note that halting trading does not eliminate market pressure, it simply delays it and when markets do reopen, there may be sharp moves as investors recalibrate positions based on new geopolitical and economic realities. The conflict has not just shaken stock markets, energy markets have also reacted. Reports from analysts indicate that crude oil prices have surged as fears of supply disruptions increase, with the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for roughly 20% of global oil exports, under theoretical threat of closure.

UAE Stock Markets Closed: What Does This Mean for Global Investors Amidst Escalating Conflict?

UAE Stock Markets Closed: What Does This Mean for Global Investors Amidst Escalating Conflict?

Higher oil prices can partially offset stock market pain in energy-exporting economies like the UAE but the overall economic impact remains complex. Other sectors, from tourism and hospitality to trade and logistics, have also felt immediate fallout: airport shutdowns have stranded travellers and corporate events and networking key to Ramadan business cycles have been postponed, compounding uncertainty.

UAE government messaging and future prospects

UAE authorities have stressed that public and economic safety remain top priorities. The temporary market closure is coupled with broad advisories across transportation, education and public services, such as airports issuing travel advisories and schools moving to remote learning, aimed at ensuring operational stability while the situation evolves. Officials have pledged to monitor conditions closely and communicate updates on any further market action. This includes potential rescheduling of reopening dates for ADX and DFM or additional measures to support investors once trading resumes.The UAE Capital Markets Authority ordered a two-day closure of the Abu Dhabi and Dubai stock markets on March 2–3, 2026, in response to escalating regional tensions. The pause follows retaliatory strikes by Iran after US and Israeli military action, which have disrupted markets, air travel and business operations across the Gulf. Gulf markets that remained open experienced sharp declines and volatility, reflecting investor risk aversion. Oil prices and safe-haven assets have climbed as geopolitical risk fuels global economic uncertainty. Authorities will continue to assess and communicate market developments as conditions evolve.



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Flights cancelled as new travel warnings issued after US-Israeli strikes on Iran

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Flights cancelled as new travel warnings issued after US-Israeli strikes on Iran



BA and Virgin Atlantic are among major airlines to ground services to the Middle East in light of the attacks.



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