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Cava, Chipotle and other fast-casual restaurant chains are finally hit by consumer slowdown

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Cava, Chipotle and other fast-casual restaurant chains are finally hit by consumer slowdown


Cava stock tumbled 16% in afternoon trading on Wednesday, making it the latest fast-casual chain to feel Wall Street’s wrath after reporting disappointing quarterly sales.

A year ago, eateries like Chipotle Mexican Grill and Cava were reporting double-digit same-store sales growth, even as the broader restaurant industry posted falling traffic and slumping sales. But times have changed. This spring, fast-casual chains saw foot traffic decline as sales slowed down or even shrank.

To explain the downturn, executives have said that diners are “cautious,” in the words of Sweetgreen CEO Jonathan Neman, or dealing with an economic “fog,” according to Cava CFO Tricia Tolivar.

And just as diners are finding reasons why to cut back on their Shake Shack burgers or Chipotle bowls, investors are trimming their fast-casual holdings after rewarding the companies last year for outperforming the rest of the industry. So far in 2025, Shake Shack shares have fallen 16%; Chipotle stock has slid 28%; Cava shares have tumbled 37%; and Sweetgreen stock has plunged 70%. Of the notable publicly traded fast-casual chains, only Wingstop has managed to stay in the green this year, with gains of 20%.

More broadly, investors have grown more cautious about betting on any restaurants, given weak traffic trends and concerns about consumer spending, according to a research note on Sunday from UBS. Even fast-food companies have struggled with the traffic declines and sluggish sales growth, despite their historical reputation as a safer bet during economic uncertainty.

While some fast-casual chains flagged company-specific reasons for their weaker-than-expected results, executives also said that economic uncertainty is weighing on consumers – and hurting their sales.

Generally, fast-casual diners are higher income and more likely to have white-collar jobs. However, Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright blamed a pullback from low-income consumers for the chain’s same-store sales declines of 4% in the second quarter.

“You have to look no further than what’s going with our competitors with snack occasions or $5 meals. That’s where the consumer is drifting towards, [with] value as a price point, because of low consumer sentiment. I think as sentiment improves, the business will improve. I think that’s probably the biggest headwind we face,” he told analysts on the company’s earnings conference call on June 23.

The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment slid in April to 52.2, one of its lowest-ever recorded readings. It held at that level in May before rising in June to 60.7.

Fast-casual chains are seeing consumers’ economic anxieties in their own research, too.

“Through our regular consumer research, we hear concerns about elevated prices, future job prospects and general anxiety about the future,” Wingstop CEO Michael Skipworth said on the company’s earnings conference call in late July.

The chicken wing chain reported same-store sales declines of 1.9% for the quarter, a dramatic reversal compared to its growth of 28.7% in the year-ago period.

On the company’s earnings conference call on Thursday, Sweetgreen’s Neman said that the chain saw “a more cautious consumer environment starting in April” — coinciding with the drop in consumer sentiment. A “subdued industry backdrop,” particularly in several of the chain’s biggest urban markets, contributed to Sweetgreen’s “really, really rough quarter,” according to Neman.

That’s one reason why the salad chain reported a steeper-than-expected decline in its same-store sales and cut its full-year forecast for the second straight quarter. Sweetgreen executives also attributed the weak quarterly performance to a tough comparison to last year’s steak launch and the transition of its loyalty program.

To improve its value perception among customers, Sweetgreen is increasing its chicken and tofu portions by 25%, improving its chicken and salmon recipes and implementing some promotional pricing, like $13 menu bowl drops for its loyalty program members.

As for Cava, the company had been wowing investors with impressive same-store sales growth since its initial public offering two years ago. But this quarter, the Mediterranean chain reported same-store sales growth of 2.1%, well below Wall Street projections of 6.1%. Executives said that it faced difficult comparisons to the year-ago period’s same-store sales growth of 14.4%, which was fueled by its own steak launch and strong demand at newer restaurant locations that waned this year.

“Cava isn’t so special after all. After blowing out same store sales in Q1 of 10.8%, it fell in line with the industry at 2.1% in Q2. It’s not negative, so that’s helpful,” Tracey Ryniec, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said.

Cava executives also acknowledged that economic concerns are weighing on diners.

“Certainly, we’re operating in a fluid macroeconomic environment and it’s one that sort of creates a fog for consumers where things are changing constantly and it’s hard to see the clear. And during those times, they tend to step off of the gas,” Tolivar said on the company’s conference call on Tuesday evening.

Still, Cava isn’t seeing consumers trade down to cheaper protein options, or experiencing any other deeper business concerns, co-founder and CEO Brett Schulman said. And as it enters the third quarter, its same-store sales have improved, Tolivar said.

And Cava isn’t the only fast-casual eatery anticipating a return to form in the latter half of the year, especially as consumer sentiment improved in June and July.

Chipotle said its traffic started growing again as the burrito chain exited the quarter and continued into July. Sweetgreen has seen “modest” improvement in its same-store sales so far into the third quarter, according to Neman.

And while Wingstop executives said that they’re still seeing weaker consumer demand, the chain is facing easier comparisons to last year’s performance.



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Pakistan considering buying LNG on spot market to offset supply disruptions caused by Iran war: petroleum minister – SUCH TV

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Pakistan considering buying LNG on spot market to offset supply disruptions caused by Iran war: petroleum minister – SUCH TV



Pakistan is considering buying liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the spot market to offset supply disruptions caused by the Iran war, but would favour government-to-government deals to avoid having to pay steep premiums, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik has told Reuters.

Qatar’s force majeure forced Pakistan to make costly spot purchases or find alternative fuels ahead of summer demand.

Spot LNG cargoes have surged to $20 to $30 per mmBtu amid the Middle East conflict, Malik says, adding that purchases would depend on whether prices are acceptable to the power sector, including under existing government-to-government arrangements with Azerbaijan’s Socar.

Pakistan has also been routing some crude supplies via Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with Malik saying insurance costs on that route were lower than routes crossing or near Hormuz.

Pakistan imports nearly all of its oil, much of it via the Strait of Hormuz, and remains exposed to supply shocks despite cutting its LNG reliance in recent years, as gas is still needed to meet the country’s peak summer power demand.

It has begun commercial output from its highest-ever producing oil and gas well, as it shores up domestic supply.

“We have arrangements in place to meet domestic and industrial requirements,” Malik said, adding that gas disruptions have not led to major curbs, with eight of 10 fertiliser plants operating.

Officials are also considering the use of costlier fuels such as furnace oil to limit load shedding, although at the expense of higher tariffs. Malik warned that prolonged shortages could threaten food security.

The Baragzai X-01 well in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is producing about 15,000 barrels of oil per day and 45 million cubic feet of gas, with output expected to rise further, the state-run operator Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) said.

The well could reach up to 25,000 barrels per day and 60 million cubic feet per day of gas, making it Pakistan’s highest-producing well, and may contribute around 10 per cent of crude output while cutting the country’s import bill by about $329 million annually, OGDC said.



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For cruise lines, Iran conflict and oil prices threaten to dent profits

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For cruise lines, Iran conflict and oil prices threaten to dent profits


The Carnival Miracle cruise ship is anchored in the Pacific Ocean near Kailua Bay during a 15-day cruise, in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii, on Jan. 14, 2024.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

The global cruise industry is reporting record demand and renewed consumer enthusiasm, but the leaders helming the world’s largest cruise companies say the sector is also facing some of the most complex challenges it has seen in decades.

“We are not an alternative vacation anymore. We are a vacation,” Carnival Corporation CEO Josh Weinstein said during a keynote panel Tuesday at Seatrade Global, a cruise industry conference.

As demand rises, passengers are getting younger; one-third of cruise travelers are now under 40, according to the 2026 State of the Cruise Industry report released by Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA). One-third of trips are multi-generational, often families traveling together. And nearly a third of cruisers take vacations by ship multiple times a year, according to the report.

The cruise industry hosted 37 million passengers worldwide last year and anticipates reaching 42 million annually by 2029, CLIA found.

“That mainstream demand sets us up very well for volatility,” Weinstein said.

A resilient business in an uncertain world

At least six cruise ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf by the impasse at the Strait of Hormuz. One of them is the MSC Euribia.

Though roughly 1,500 passengers were safely evacuated amid Dubai airport shutdowns and missile warnings after the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran in late February, there are still some crew on board to maintain the vessel.

“Obviously, we live day by day. The situation is very fluid,” said MSC Cruises Executive Chairman Pierfrancesco Vago during the Seatrade Global keynote.

Already the shutdown of marine traffic in the Strait has disrupted itineraries in the Middle East and southern Europe. Threats of blockades, mines on the sea floor and on-and-off-again negotiations are keeping cruise executives guessing about when they can move their ships.

“Morning is one thing, lunchtime is another, dinner is another again,” Vago said of the numerous and often conflicting announcements from government leaders. “We need to stay cool and actually be ready to move out as soon as the possibility and opportunity comes back.”

Despite these challenges, cruise executives argue the industry has never been better positioned to absorb shocks.

“Every crisis we’ve faced — financial, geopolitical or health-related — we adapted,” Carnival’s Weinstein said. “There’s no reason to believe it will be different this time.”

Fuel costs, sustainability and the push to use less

Fuel price volatility has once again put energy strategy front and center for the cruise industry, particularly for Carnival, which does not hedge fuel prices.

“Nobody asks us about hedging when prices are low,” Weinstein said. “But our strategy has been consistent: use less fuel.” 

The cruise industry aims to have net zero emissions by 2050, but CEOs agree that they can’t achieve that goal solely by conserving fuel.

Industry leaders see biofuels, green methanol and synthetic liquid natural gas (produced by combining captured carbon with hydrogen) as the most promising solutions to meet their fuel needs.

Royal Caribbean Group CEO Jason Liberty said cruise lines are already investing hundreds of millions of dollars annually in technology and energy innovation, but availability of alternative fuels remains the bottleneck.

“It’s not about what we want to use,” Liberty said. “It’s about what’s scalable and available.” 

“We’re going to have heavy competition with other sectors for those fuels as well. There’s no guarantee we get them,” added Bud Darr, president and CEO of Cruise Lines International Association.

Tailwinds for growth

Even as the industry navigates choppy seas, cruise companies are looking for their next avenues for growth.

Technological advances in artificial intelligence are being used to reduce food waste, plot routes and itineraries and increase efficiency. Cruise line executives say the most important application is to reduce friction in the guest experience.

“A more flexible work environment has been a big demand driver for us,” Liberty said. Most Royal Caribbean ships now host a Starlink connection for fast internet aboard.

Private destinations, the exclusive ports or islands owned or controlled by a cruise line, continue to be a priority for investment. Royal Caribbean, for instance, currently has three private destinations on its itineraries but will have eight by 2028.

It’s developing a major land-based hub in Puerto Williams, Chile, to reduce or eliminate the amount of time passengers to Antarctica have to spend transiting the punishing seas of the Drake Passage.

And the luxury segment, though a small percentage of the overall industry, is growing rapidly. Customers are increasingly interested in exploring health, wellness and longevity — and those trends are showing up in their vacation habits, too.

Smaller ships and river cruising accommodate specialized interests in eco-tourism, off-the-beaten path (not yet discovered by social media influencers) locales and culinary or artistic aficionados.

Social-media driven demand in tourism has also sparked backlash from some destinations, overwhelmed by the crowds. The cruise industry is working with destinations on what it calls managed, predictable tourism.

Vago said MSC worked with Dubrovnik, Croatia, for example, to coordinate the flow of visitors to the medieval town, which wants the tourism spending but without destruction of quality of life for residents.

“Many of these coastal communities actually appreciate that. We plan in advance. We create itineraries three years in advance,” Vago said.

“The strength of this industry is its ability to evolve without losing its soul,” Liberty said. “That soul is hospitality.”

Leadership change and fresh perspective

At Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, the challenge for new CEO John Chidsey is righting the ship.

In his first earnings call, just days after taking the helm, Chidsey acknowledged the company had committed numerous missteps.

Margins are under pressure. Shares have been volatile. Critics have questioned a push to expand cruise itineraries in the Caribbean before Norwegian’s private island was fully completed.

Earlier this year, Elliott Investment Management took an activist stake in Norwegian, which may have provided impetus for the board to make a leadership change.

Chidsey told CNBC Elliott’s goals align with his own and that he intends to create a culture of accountability and urgency where teams are working together rather than separated into silos.

New Norwegian Cruise Line CEO John Chidsey on taking the helm

The Seatrade conference was a cruise industry debut for Chidsey, formerly the CEO of Subway, Burger King and Avis.

When asked what a “sandwich guy knows about cruising,” Chidsey didn’t miss a beat, insisting he’s a “turnaround guy not a sandwich guy.”

“I knew nothing about fast food when I went there. I think having a fresh set of eyes is really what Norwegian needs. And it’s all about execution,” he said.

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India rejects US Section 301 allegations, seeks termination; calls for resolution via talks – The Times of India

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India rejects US Section 301 allegations, seeks termination; calls for resolution via talks – The Times of India


India has strongly pushed back against the United States’ Section 301 investigations, rejecting allegations of unfair trade practices and seeking immediate termination of the probes.In its submission to the US Trade Representative (USTR), India “firmly denies all allegations made in the initiation notice” related to claims of excess structural capacity and production in manufacturing sectors, PTI reported. “The initiation Notice is premised on aggregate macroeconomic indicators, without identifying any specific act, policy or practice of the Government of India that could be considered ‘unreasonable or discriminatory’ and that ‘burdens or restricts United States commerce’ as required by Section 301(b) of the Act,” the submission said. India said the notice provides no “cogent rationale” or prima facie evidence to support allegations that the country has structural excess capacity leading to a trade surplus with the US. “India submits that the present investigation does not satisfy the requirements for the initiation of this investigation pursuant to Sections 301 and 302 of the Trade Act of 1974. India calls upon the USTR to make a negative determination and terminate the investigation forthwith,” it said. The government also urged that trade concerns be addressed through ongoing bilateral negotiations rather than unilateral measures, noting that both countries are engaged in discussions for a Bilateral Trade Agreement. “India remains willing to constructively engage with the United States in the underlying investigation, including any consultation,” it added. Separately, responding to another Section 301 probe launched on March 12 on alleged failure to act against forced labour, India said the investigation does not meet legal requirements for initiation. “India requests the USTR to make a negative determination and terminate the investigation against India. Additionally, India remains willing to constructively engage with the United States in the underlying investigation, including any consultation,” the submission said. The responses have been filed by the commerce and industry ministry on behalf of the government. On March 11, the USTR initiated investigations into policies and industrial practices of 16 economies, including India, China, Japan and the European Union, to examine “unfair foreign practices” affecting American manufacturing. A day later, on March 12, the USTR launched a broader probe covering 60 economies, including India and China, to assess whether their practices related to forced labour imports are unreasonable or discriminatory and restrict US commerce. India said its submissions represent the public, non-confidential summary of its response, while the full version has been filed separately as confidential.



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