Politics
China’s new mega dam triggers fears of water war in India
- Beijing building world’s largest dam upstream of India.
- India fears Chinese dam will reduce flow on major river.
- Delhi says mega dam of its own will mitigate risks.
PARONG, INDIA: India fears a planned Chinese mega-dam in Tibet will reduce water flows on a major river by up to 85% during the dry season, according to four sources familiar with the matter and a government analysis seen by Reuters, prompting Delhi to fast-track plans for its own dam to mitigate the effects.
The Indian government has been considering projects since the early 2000s to control the flow of water from Tibet’s Angsi Glacier, which sustains more than 100 million people downstream in China, India and Bangladesh. But the plans have been hindered by fierce and occasionally violent resistance from residents of the border state of Arunachal Pradesh, who fear their villages will be submerged and way of life destroyed by any dam.
Then in December, China announced that it would build the world’s largest hydropower dam in a border county just before the Yarlung Zangbo river crosses into India. That triggered fears in New Delhi that its longtime strategic rival – which has some territorial claims in Arunachal Pradesh – could weaponise its control of the river, which originates in the Angsi Glacier and is known as the Siang and Brahmaputra in India.
India’s largest hydropower company in May moved survey materials under armed police protection near a prospective site of the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam, which would be the country’s biggest dam, if completed. Senior Indian officials have also been holding meetings about accelerating construction this year, including one organised in July by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office, according to two of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive government matters.
Delhi’s concerns were described in the undated Indian government analysis of the Chinese dam’s impact, the specifics of which Reuters corroborated with four sources and is reporting for the first time.
Beijing hasn’t released detailed plans about the dam’s construction, but the analysis drew on past work conducted by Indian government-affiliated institutions like the Central Water Commission and accounted for the expected size of the Chinese project, which broke ground in July and will cost nearly $170 billion.
Delhi estimates the Chinese dam will allow Beijing to divert as much as 40 billion cubic meters of water, or just over a third of what is received annually at a key border point, according to the sources and the document. The impact would be especially acute in the non-monsoon months, when temperatures rise and lands become barren across swathes of India.
The Upper Siang project would alleviate that with its projected 14 BCM of storage capacity, allowing India to release water during the dry season. That could mean the major regional city of Guwahati, which is dependent on water-intensive industry and farming, would see a reduction in supply of 11%, according to the sources and the document, as opposed to 25% if the Indian dam isn’t built.
The project could also mitigate any move by Beijing to release devastating torrents of water downstream, the sources said.
If the dam is at its minimum drawdown level – where water is stored at less than 50% of its height – it would be able to fully absorb any excess water released from a breach in Chinese infrastructure, according to the document and the sources. India is considering a proposal to keep 30% of its dam empty at any time in order to account for unexpected surges, two of the sources said.
A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said in response to Reuters‘ questions that the hydropower projects “have undergone rigorous scientific research on safety and environmental protection, and will not adversely impact the water resources, ecology, or geology of downstream countries.”
“China has always maintained a responsible attitude toward the development and utilisation of transboundary rivers, and has maintained long-term communication and cooperation with downstream countries such as India and Bangladesh,” the spokesperson added.
Modi’s office and the Indian ministries responsible for water and external affairs did not respond to Reuters‘ questions. State-owned hydropower major NHPC also did not return a request for comment.
India’s foreign ministry has said that top diplomat S Jaishankar raised concerns about the dam during a meeting with his Chinese counterpart on Aug 18. A Jaishankar deputy also told lawmakers in August that the government was implementing measures to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of citizens in downstream areas, including building the dam.
India has itself been accused by Pakistan, a Chinese ally that it briefly clashed with in May, of weaponizing water. Delhi this year suspended its participation in a 1960 water-sharing treaty with Islamabad and is considering diverting flows from another crucial river away from its downstream neighbour.
An international tribunal has ruled that India must adhere to the agreement but Delhi says the panel lacks jurisdiction.
Development or destruction?
When NHPC workers moved surveying materials near the village of Parong in May, angry locals damaged their machinery, destroyed a nearby bridge and looted the tents of police sent to guard the operation.
Many of them are members of Arunachal’s Adi community, who live off paddy, orange and sweet lime farms in the mist-shrouded hills and valleys nourished by the Siang.
The villagers have set up makeshift watch posts on regional roads to deny access to NHPC workers. That has forced security personnel to trek miles, often under cover of night, to reach a prospective site of the dam.
At least 16 Adi villages are likely to be lost to the storage area of the dam, directly affecting an estimated 10,000 people, according to two of the sources. Community leaders say more than 100,000 people will be impacted overall.
“The cardamom, paddy, jackfruit and pear we grow on this land help educate our children and support our family,” said Odoni Palo Pabin, an Adi grocer and mother of two. “We will fight the dam to death.”
The dam has the support of Arunachal’s chief minister, who is a member of Modi’s party and has called the Chinese project an existential threat.
The project will “ensure water security and provide flood moderation to counter any potential water surges,” the state government said in a statement, adding that it decided in June to engage in detailed compensation discussions with families that could be affected by the dam.
Lawmaker Alo Libang, an Adi who represents an area that would be submerged by the Indian project, said he believed locals could be convinced to move if they received generous compensation.
NHPC has plans to spend more than $3 million on education and emergency infrastructure to incentivise the villagers to move elsewhere, three of the sources said, citing instructions from Modi’s office.
In one sign of progress, three villages in the area recently agreed to let NHPC officials carry out dam-related work, according to the Arunachal government and dozens of locals.
India has a history of activist movements against large dams, which have sometimes slowed these projects by years or forced them to scale down.
Even if the Upper Siang dam gets the go-ahead, it could take a decade to build after breaking ground, according to four of the sources. That means the project would likely be completed after China’s project, which Beijing expects to start generating power by the early-to-mid 2030s.
The delay means an Indian project would be vulnerable during construction if Beijing suddenly releases water during the monsoon season, triggering a surge that could wash away temporary dams, two of the sources said.
International experts and Adi activists have also warned that building large dams in seismically active Tibet and Arunachal could heighten risks for downstream communities.
The Chinese “dam is being built in a zone of high seismicity and in a zone that experiences extreme weather events,” said Sayanangshu Modak, an expert on the India-China water relationship at the University of Arizona.
“These kinds of extreme weather events trigger landslides, mudslides, glacial lake outburst flooding,” he said. “So that raises concerns about dam safety… it’s a very legitimate concern and India should engage with China.”
- EU, UK summon Russian envoys to protest over Kyiv attacks.
- White House spox says Trump will have more to say about strikes.
- Says perhaps both sides are not ready to end it themselves.
KYIV: US President Donald Trump has said that he was “not surprised” after Russia rained down missiles and drones on Kyiv, killing at least 21 people in the Ukrainian capital early on Thursday.
The deadly strikes came as the US president continues to push for peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, even as the war grinds on.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump “was not happy about this news, but he was also not surprised,” given that the two countries had been at war for a long time.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said the strike, the second-largest attack since Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, was Moscow’s answer to diplomatic efforts to end its war.
US special envoy Keith Kellogg commented on X: “The targets? Not soldiers and weapons but residential areas in Kyiv – blasting civilian trains, the EU & British mission council offices, and innocent civilians.”
The European Union and Britain summoned Russian envoys to protest. There were no reports of casualties at either site.
Zelensky said the strikes also damaged a Turkish enterprise and the Azerbaijan embassy.
Leavitt told a regular briefing that Trump would have more to say about the situation later.
Leavitt said the Russian attacks had been deadly and that Ukrainian attacks had done significant damage in August to Russian oil refineries.
“Perhaps both sides of this war are not ready to end it themselves,” she said.
“The president wants it to end but the leaders of these two countries need it to end and want it to end.”
The strikes took place less than two weeks after Trump hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit in Alaska, a meeting the US president hoped would advance his peace efforts.
“Russia chooses ballistics instead of the negotiating table,” Zelensky said on X, calling for new sanctions on Russia. “It chooses to continue killing instead of ending the war.”
Russia said its attack had hit military industrial facilities and air bases, and that Ukraine had attacked Russian targets. The Kremlin said it was still interested in pursuing peace talks.
Moscow has regularly denied targeting civilians. Ukrainian officials say scores of civilians have died in Russian strikes on densely populated areas in recent months, and thousands since the start of the war.
During the attack on Kyiv, explosions rang out as clouds of smoke rose into the night sky. Drones whirred overhead.
Mayor Vitali Klitschko described it as one of the biggest attacks on the city in recent months. At least 63 people were wounded in the hours-long assault, which damaged buildings in all city districts, officials said.
Across the country, Ukraine’s military said Russian attacks struck 13 locations. National grid operator Ukrenergo said energy facilities were hit, causing power cuts.
A push by Ukraine and its allies to end the invasion has yielded little, despite Trump’s meetings this month with Putin, then Zelensky.
Russia has stepped up air strikes on Ukrainian towns and cities far behind the front lines and pushed a grinding offensive across much of the east in an effort to pressure Ukraine into giving up territory.
‘Another grim reminder’
“This is another grim reminder of what is at stake. It shows that the Kremlin will stop at nothing to terrorise Ukraine, blindly killing civilians and even targeting the European Union,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters in Brussels.
She said two missiles had struck near the EU office within 20 seconds of each other.
EU countries would soon come up with a 19th package of sanctions against Russia and were advancing work on how to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine, she added.
“We discussed our diplomatic efforts to stop the killings, to end this unprovoked Russian aggression, and to guarantee real security for our people,” Zelensky wrote on X after talks with von der Leyen.
Zelensky also said that he had discussed security guarantees for Ukraine with Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan and they would be set out on paper next week.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the assault, which he said had damaged the British Council building. “Putin is killing children and civilians and sabotaging hopes of peace,” he wrote on X.
Ukraine’s military said air defences downed 563 of nearly 600 drones and 26 of 31 missiles launched by Russia across the country.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian air defences destroyed 102 Ukrainian drones overnight in at least seven regions.
Ukraine’s drone force said it had struck the Afipsky and Kuybyshevskyi oil refineries as part of that attack.
- Britain, France, Germany send letter to UN Security Council.
- E3 hopes move will push Iran to make commitments.
- “E3’s commitment to diplomatic solution remains steadfast.”
Britain, France and Germany launched a 30-day process to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme on Thursday, a step likely to stoke tensions two months after Israel and the United States bombed Iran, according to a letter sent by E3 to the UN Security Council seen by Reuters.
The trio, known as the E3, said in a statement they had decided to trigger the so-called snapback mechanism before they lose the ability in mid-October to restore sanctions on Tehran that were lifted under a 2015 nuclear accord with world powers.
They have held several rounds of talks with Iran since Israel and the United States struck its nuclear installations in mid-June, aiming to agree to defer the mechanism but they deemed that talks in Geneva on Tuesday did not yield sufficiently tangible commitments from Iran.
The E3 have pressed ahead now over accusations that Iran has violated the 2015 deal that aimed to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. The United States, which was party to that deal, pulled out under President Donald Trump in 2018, and held failed indirect negotiations earlier this year with Tehran.
The E3, whose ministers informed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio of their decision on Wednesday, said they hoped that Iran would engage by the end of September to provide commitments over its nuclear programme that will convince them to defer concrete action.
“The E3 are committed to using every diplomatic tool available to ensure Iran never develops a nuclear weapon. That includes our decision to trigger the ‘snapback’ mechanism today through this notification,” they said in the letter.
“The E3’s commitment to a diplomatic solution nonetheless remains steadfast. The E3 will fully make use of the 30-day period following the notification in order to resolve the issue giving rise to the notification.”
Meanwhile, Britain, France, and Germany’s move to reimpose all UN sanctions on Iran is “illegal and regrettable”, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, adding that Tehran was reviewing its options including withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
“The move is an action against diplomacy, not a chance for it … However, Iran will continue diplomacy with the E3 … (But) Iran will not concede under pressure,” added the senior official.
The E3 had offered to extend the snapback for as much as six months to enable serious negotiations if Iran resumes full UN inspections — which would also seek to account for Iran’s large stock of enriched uranium that has not been verified since the June strikes — and engages in talks with the United States.
Growing frustration in Iran
The UN process takes 30 days before sanctions that would cover Iran’s financial, banking, hydrocarbons and defence sectors are restored.
Growing fears of renewed United Nations sanctions under the snapback mechanism are fuelling frustration in Iran, where economic anxiety is rising and political divisions are deepening, three insiders close to the government said.
As the prospect of tighter international restrictions threatens to further isolate the Islamic Republic, officials in Tehran remain split — with hardliners urging defiance and confrontation, while moderates advocate diplomacy.
Iran’s rial weakened sharply since Wednesday after a Reuters report about the E3 moving to trigger the return of United Nations sanctions.
Iran has been enriching uranium to up to 60% fissile purity, a short step from the roughly 90% of weapons-grade, and had enough material enriched to that level, if refined further, for six nuclear weapons, before the strikes by Israel started on June 13, according to the IAEA.
Actually producing a weapon would take more time, however, and the IAEA has said that while it cannot guarantee Tehran’s nuclear programme is entirely peaceful, it has no credible indication of a coordinated weapons project.
The West says the advancement of Iran’s nuclear programme goes beyond civilian needs, while Tehran denies it is seeking nuclear weapons.
US President Donald Trump’s administration moved on Thursday to impose stricter limits on how long foreign students and journalists can stay in the United States, the latest bid to tighten legal immigration in the country.
Under a proposed change, foreigners would not be allowed to stay for more than four years on student visas in the US.
Foreign journalists would be limited to stays of just 240 days, although they could apply to extend by additional 240-day periods — except for Chinese journalists who would get just 90 days.
The US, until now, has generally issued visas for the duration of a student’s educational programme or a journalist’s assignment, although no non-immigrant visas are valid for more than 10 years.
The proposed changes were published in the Federal Register, initiating a short period for public comment before they can go into effect.
Trump’s Department of Homeland Security alleged that an unspecified number of foreigners were indefinitely extending their studies so they could remain in the country as “‘forever’ students.”
“For too long, past administrations have allowed foreign students and other visa holders to remain in the US virtually indefinitely, posing safety risks, costing untold amount of taxpayer dollars and disadvantaging US citizens,” the department said in a press statement Wednesday.
The department did not explain how US citizens and taxpayers were hurt by international students, who according to Commerce Department statistics contributed more than $50 billion to the US economy in 2023.
The United States welcomed more than 1.1 million international students in the 2023-24 academic year, more than any other country, providing a crucial source of revenue as foreigners generally pay full tuition.
A group representing leaders of US colleges and universities denounced the latest move as a needless bureaucratic hurdle that intrudes on academic decision-making and could further deter potential students who would otherwise contribute to research and job creation.
“This proposed rule sends a message to talented individuals from around the world that their contributions are not valued in the United States,” said Miriam Feldblum, president and CEO of the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration.
“This is not only detrimental to international students — it also weakens the ability of US colleges and universities to attract top talent, diminishing our global competitiveness.”
Backlash
The announcement came as universities were starting their academic years with many reporting lower enrollments of international students after earlier actions by the Trump administration.
But Trump also heard rare criticism within his base when he mused Monday that he would like to double the number of Chinese students in the United States to 600,000 as he hailed warm relations with counterpart Xi Jinping.
His remarks marked a sharp departure from Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s earlier vow to “aggressively” rescind visas of Chinese students.
The State Department said last week it had overall revoked 6,000 student visas since Trump took office, in part due to Rubio’s targeting of campus activists who led demonstrations against Israel.
Trump has also suspended billions of dollars in federal research funds to universities, with his administration contending they have not acted against antisemitism, and Congress has sharply raised taxes on private universities’ endowments.
In a speech before he was elected, Vice President JD Vance said conservatives must attack universities, which he described as “the enemy.”
Trump, at the end of his first term, had proposed curbing the duration of journalist visas, but his successor Joe Biden scrapped the idea.
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