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China’s personal luxury market down 3–5% in 2025: Bain

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China’s personal luxury market down 3–5% in 2025: Bain



The mainland China personal luxury goods market contracted by 3–5 per cent in 2025, a significant moderation compared with the sharp decline seen in 2024, according to Bain & Company’s China Personal Luxury Report. While consumer confidence remained cautious for much of the year, the market showed early signs of recovery in the third quarter of the year, supported by favourable base effects – when comparing H2 2025 with the same period in 2024 – alongside a more robust stock market and a gradual improvement in sentiment.

The report finds that 2025 marked a year of recalibration for China’s luxury market, as consumers became more selective and prioritised value driven luxury items that balance quality, exclusivity and practicality. Experience-based consumption, including travel and wellness, continued to be favoured, reflecting an ongoing preference for emotional and sensory experiences over material goods.

“After the turbulence of 2024, the market in 2025 began to stabilize, although consumer confidence remained fragile,” said Bruno Lannes, senior partner at Bain & Company. “What we are seeing is not a broad-based rebound, but the start of a recalibration phase, with early signs of recovery emerging in the second half of the year. This recalibration is also segment specific, with the Very Important Clients continuing to represent a large share of the market, while younger aspiring consumers have delayed entry into the luxury category.”

Luxury market performance varied significantly by category. Beauty emerged as the strongest performer, rebounding to 4–7 per cent growth, driven by steady demand for ultra-premium skincare and fragrances as consumers continued to seek emotional and sensory experiences even amid economic uncertainty. Other categories remained under pressure.

Fashion declined by 5–8 per cent, outperforming leather goods which declined 8–11 per cent – reflecting past and ongoing price increases and limited innovation, which made it difficult for consumers to justify purchases.

“In a more selective market, category dynamics and brand fundamentals are becoming increasingly decisive,” said Priscilla Dell’Orto, partner at Bain & Company. “Brands that maintain strong desirability and deliver clear value through innovation and targeted pricing strategies are proving more resilient.”

In contrast to 2023 and 2024, the share of overseas luxury spending declined sharply in 2025. Bain estimates that 65 per cent of Chinese luxury consumption occurred within mainland China, while 35 per cent took place outside, reflecting a renewed degree of consumption repatriation.

This shift was driven in part by low currency and narrowed price gaps between mainland China and key luxury markets, largely resulting from exchange-rate movements, which reduced the incentive for overseas shopping. Domestic tourism growth and ongoing shopping mall promotions further supported mainland consumption, despite the continued recovery of outbound travel.

Daigou activity stayed high in 2025 but showed signs of structural slowdown as brands stepped up efforts to curb gray-market sales and protect pricing in China. Sales among the top 45 brands tracked by Re-Hub grew 3 per cent in 2025, down from 5 per cent in 2024, reflecting tighter control over overseas supply chains and unofficial channels.

At the same time, China’s second-hand luxury market continued to expand, growing by 15–20 per cent in 2025, while remaining underpenetrated at less than 10 per cent of the primary luxury market. Growth was supported by an increased supply of pre-owned goods, rising consumer acceptance – particularly among younger and more price-sensitive buyers – and the widespread adoption of live-streaming as a trusted channel for product verification and engagement.

“The second-hand market is becoming a more established and complementary pillar of China’s luxury ecosystem,” said Elle Yang, partner at Bain & Company. “Its continued growth reflects changing consumer mindsets as well as the increasing maturity of the overall market.”

The report also points to the continued growth of local Chinese luxury brands, especially in beauty and select personal luxury segments. These players are gaining market share through culturally resonant designs, digital-first and engagement-driven consumer strategies, and competitive pricing supported by strong local supply chains.

As competition intensifies in a low-growth environment, the gap between winners and laggards is widening, with consumers consolidating their spending toward a smaller number of preferred brands that deliver perceived ‘true value’.

Looking ahead, Bain expects China’s personal luxury goods market to see modest growth in 2026, albeit with continued volatility and uncertainty. A growing middle class, improving consumer confidence and favourable policies are expected to help direct more luxury consumption back to the mainland, while growth will remain highly category- and brand-dependent.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)



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US Upland cotton exports increased but Pima notably down: USDA

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US Upland cotton exports increased but Pima notably down: USDA



US cotton export sales rebounded in the week ended January 29, 2026, recovering from the prior slowdown, while shipment volumes eased from the previous marketing-year peak but remained firm versus recent averages. This reflects selective new buying alongside steady execution of existing contracts.

According to the weekly US cotton export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), net Upland cotton sales for the 2025–26 marketing year rose to 249,800 running bales (RB), each weighing 226.8 kg (500 pounds). This marked a 23 per cent increase from the previous week, though sales were 5 per cent below the prior four-week average.

US cotton export sales rebounded on renewed Upland demand, led by Vietnam, Pakistan and China, while forward bookings signalled cautious confidence in next-season coverage.
Shipments eased from peak levels but stayed well above recent averages, reflecting steady contract execution.
Pima cotton remained weak, underscoring divergent demand across fibre segments.

Vietnam emerged as the largest buyer with net purchases of 54,000 RB, followed by Pakistan (48,100 RB), China (36,600 RB), Turkiye (32,800 RB) and Bangladesh (31,800 RB). These gains were partially offset by modest reductions from South Korea.

Forward sales for the 2026–27 season strengthened sharply, with net sales jumping to 114,900 RB, compared with minimal volumes a week earlier. Malaysia led next-season bookings with 52,800 RB, followed by Indonesia (33,400 RB), Mexico and Nicaragua (8,800 RB each), and Turkiye (6,600 RB), signalling improved confidence in forward coverage.

Shipment activity softened from the prior week’s marketing-year high. Upland cotton exports declined 9 per cent week on week to 235,300 RB, though shipments remained 25 per cent above the four-week average. Vietnam remained the top destination with 84,300 RB, followed by Pakistan (29,100 RB), Bangladesh (19,500 RB), Turkiye (17,600 RB) and China (16,000 RB).

Outstanding Upland sales stood at 3.98 million RB, still significantly below the 5.20 million RB recorded a year earlier, indicating leaner forward order coverage despite accumulated exports rising to 3.82 million RB, ahead of last season’s pace.

The Pima cotton segment weakened notably. Net Pima sales for 2025–26 fell to 3,200 RB, down 87 per cent from the previous week and 79 per cent below the four-week average, with limited buying from Costa Rica, Djibouti, Thailand, Bangladesh and India. Pima shipments declined to a marketing-year low of 2,300 RB, down 48 per cent week on week, with exports mainly to China, Colombia, Thailand and India.

Overall, the latest data indicate a recovery in US cotton export sales driven by renewed Upland demand and stronger forward bookings, even as shipments moderated from record levels. However, lower outstanding sales compared with last year suggest global mills remain cautious about extending coverage amid price volatility and uncertain downstream demand.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)



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Eurozone private sector expands at slower pace in January

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Eurozone private sector expands at slower pace in January



The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index compiled by S&P Global edged down to 51.3 in January from 51.5 in December, signalling the weakest pace of expansion since September, while still pointing to growth for a thirteenth consecutive month. The loss of momentum was led by a slowdown in services activity, which outweighed a fresh upturn in manufacturing output. Demand remained fragile, with new orders barely increasing, and private sector employment largely flat as manufacturing job cuts offset modest hiring in services.

Despite softer current conditions, business sentiment improved. Eurozone firms reported their strongest expectations for activity growth since May 2024, although confidence levels remained below the long-run average, S&P Global said in a press release.

Eurozone private sector growth slowed again in January, with the Composite PMI easing to 51.3, its weakest expansion since September.
Services-led softness offset manufacturing gains, while new orders and employment remained subdued.
Despite fragile demand, business optimism improved to its strongest since May 2024.
Inflation pressures intensified, with input costs and output charges rising sharply.

Input cost inflation rose for a third successive month to an eleven-month high, while output charges increased at their fastest pace in nearly a year. Both indicators remained well above their respective historical averages, pointing to a renewed build-up of inflationary pressures.

Among the major eurozone economies, Spain topped the index rankings with a reading of 52.9, despite marking a seven-month low. Germany followed with an index of 52.1, a two-month high but slightly below its flash estimate of 52.5. Italy posted a Composite PMI of 51.4, also a two-month high, while France slipped into contraction territory at 49.1, its weakest level in three months and below the earlier flash reading of 48.6.

“Service companies in the eurozone have expanded their business activities for the eighth month in a row. The growth trajectory can be described as decent, but the situation is still not comfortable. Companies hardly hired any new staff in January. The fact that new business barely grew also shows that the recovery in this sector is still fragile,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

The survey data were gathered between January 12 and 27, 2025.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)



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India–US trade deal set to unlock stalled textile export orders

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India–US trade deal set to unlock stalled textile export orders



India’s export community has welcomed the India–US trade deal, under which US tariffs on Indian-made products have been reduced from around 50 per cent to 18 per cent, calling it a historic milestone expected to trigger the immediate release of stalled export orders and accelerate growth across labour-intensive sectors.

The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said the sharp tariff reduction is likely to provide an instant boost to sectors such as apparel, textiles, leather and footwear, where global buyers typically finalise summer-season sourcing by December. With improved price parity, greater tariff certainty and renewed buyer confidence, exporters expect a rapid pick-up in orders over the coming months.

India’s exporters have welcomed the India–US trade deal, which cuts US tariffs on Indian goods from around 50 per cent to 18 per cent, saying it will immediately unlock stalled orders.
Industry bodies expect a rapid rebound in textile and apparel exports, improved competitiveness in the US market, renewed buyer confidence, fresh investments, and stronger job creation across labour-intensive sectors.

Hailing the agreement as the ‘Father of All Deals’, S C Ralhan, president, FIEO, said the trade pact marks a major step forward in strengthening bilateral economic ties. “The finalisation of the India–US Trade Deal and the reduction of US tariffs to 18 per cent on Indian-made products is a landmark achievement. It reflects the growing strategic and economic partnership between India and the United States and opens up vast opportunities for Indian exporters, particularly MSMEs,” he said.

Ralhan added that sectors including engineering goods, textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, leather products, gems and jewellery, and agricultural products are expected to gain significantly. “Lower tariffs will enhance price competitiveness and help Indian exporters integrate more deeply into US supply chains. This will encourage capacity expansion, attract fresh investments and support job creation in export-oriented industries,” he noted.

The Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA) said the rollback of the punitive US tariff has come as a major relief for India’s textile and clothing industry. SIMA noted that the sudden imposition of a 50 per cent tariff had severely disrupted the manufacturing value chain. SIMA chairman Durai Palanisamy said, “The reduction of the US tariff to 18 per cent, the lowest rate secured by any competing textile and clothing exporting nation, has restored confidence across the industry and is expected to improve India’s global competitiveness.” He added that the move, combined with India’s recent trade agreements with the US, the UK and Europe, is likely to revive export momentum and place the sector back on a sustainable growth path.

He said exporters, particularly in Tamil Nadu, were hit hard, with production levels falling by 30–70 per cent across several units and significant job losses following the tariff hike.

Anant Goenka, president, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI), said the agreement marks a significant reset in bilateral economic ties. “The reduction of reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent, following months of negotiations, will materially improve the competitiveness of Indian exports in the world’s largest import market,” he said.

Goenka noted that sectors such as apparel, leather, gems and jewellery, and marine products are poised to benefit from the deal, which could strengthen business confidence and deepen economic engagement between the two countries. “If implemented effectively, the agreement can provide a meaningful boost to India’s export growth trajectory, broaden market access, and underscore the strategic importance of sustained cooperation between the world’s largest democracies,” he added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)



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