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Deepening CPEC-II collaboration under China’s new Five-Year Plan | The Express Tribune

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Deepening CPEC-II collaboration under China’s new Five-Year Plan | The Express Tribune


Pakistan stands to benefit from joint ventures in EV components, solar equipment & AI skill development

Shanghai Auto Show opens with bold message as China leads global electric vehicle race. PHOTO: SHANGHAI AUTO SHOW


KARACHI:

China’s economy is showing unmistakable signs of slowing in 2025, and the ripple effects are being felt across Asia. Its third-quarter GDP growth slipped to 4.8% from 5.2% in the previous quarter, marking the weakest pace in a year. Much of the drag stems from persistent structural weaknesses, particularly in the property market.

Real estate investment has declined 13.9% year-to-date as of September, while home prices in major cities continue to fall despite targeted stimulus measures. Consumer sentiment is subdued as retail sales have grown by just 3%, the lowest in a year, reflecting the cautious attitude of households facing job market uncertainty and shrinking wealth.

Deflationary pressures remain a concern, with producer and consumer prices both depressed, complicating Beijing’s efforts to stabilise demand.

Despite these difficulties, growth has averaged 5.2% during the first nine months of the year – enough for China to meet its annual target of around 5%. Exports have provided some support, though this strength is vulnerable to escalating tensions with the United States, including new tariffs, tighter restrictions on rare earth minerals and additional controls on the transfer of advanced technology.

These frictions signal a structural shift in the relationship between the world’s two largest economies rather than a temporary disruption. In response, policymakers in Beijing are easing monetary conditions, offering selective tax relief and considering interest rate cuts to lift consumption and private investment. At the same time, China is finalising a new Five-Year Plan that prioritises high-tech manufacturing, AI-driven innovation, productivity upgrades and greener industry, aiming to shift the economic model away from property-led growth. For Pakistan, China’s economic trajectory is not a distant macroeconomic development. It directly shapes trade flows, investment inflows, energy availability and industrial expansion. A further slowdown in China would have immediate consequences.

With bilateral trade touching $23.1 billion in 2024, weakening Chinese demand would hit Pakistan’s exports of cotton yarn, copper scrap, seafood, leather and semi-processed foods. This would worsen Pakistan’s already delicate trade deficit, which stood at $17.4 billion last year. Even if global commodity prices fall and offer some import relief, the loss of export earnings would outweigh the benefit.

A deeper Chinese slowdown would also cloud the outlook for CPEC — the backbone of Pakistan’s infrastructure and energy modernisation. China has financed power plants, transmission lines, motorways, ports and industrial zones.

If economic pressures force Beijing to scale back or delay overseas commitments, Pakistan could experience slower progress on Special Economic Zones, reduced momentum in Gwadar’s port and free zone development, postponement of energy upgrades, and delays in railway modernisation, including Main Line-1.

Domestic industries that are dependent on Chinese machinery and components, such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, construction, and renewable energy, could face increased costs or supply disruptions. Foreign exchange reserves would come under pressure as export receipts soften and project financing slows, complicating Pakistan’s efforts to stabilise inflation, interest rates and the exchange rate. In such a scenario, Pakistan would need to diversify export markets, attract investment from a broader pool of countries and push ahead with overdue structural reforms to build resilience.

However, if China succeeds in stabilising growth around the 5% mark, the outlook for Pakistan will become considerably more favourable. Stable Chinese demand would support Pakistan’s industrial and agricultural exports, helping maintain a more manageable trade balance and providing predictability for businesses engaged in cross-border commerce. Crucially, steady economic conditions in China would help sustain momentum under CPEC. Ongoing projects in transport infrastructure, grid modernisation, renewable energy and industrial zones could proceed without major delays. Improvements in logistics and energy availability would strengthen Pakistan’s productive capacity and competitiveness.

China’s incoming Five-Year Plan, with its focus on “new quality productive forces” such as artificial intelligence, robotics, electric mobility and green technologies, offers opportunities for deeper collaboration under CPEC phase-II. Pakistan stands to benefit from joint ventures in electric vehicle components, solar equipment, battery assembly, AI skill development, agri-tech and smart manufacturing. Such cooperation could accelerate the country’s transition towards a higher value-added and innovation-oriented economy.

Stable Chinese investment and predictable financing flows would also support Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability, helping improve investor confidence and giving policymakers greater space to pursue long-term reforms rather than crisis management.

China’s economic performance in 2025 is, therefore, pivotal not only for Beijing but also for Islamabad. A sharper slowdown would test Pakistan’s resilience and force difficult adjustments, while a stable China would offer space to consolidate growth, modernise industry and deepen technological cooperation.

The coming months will determine whether Pakistan must brace for external headwinds or position itself to benefit from new opportunities emerging in China’s evolving economic landscape.

The writer is a Mechanical Engineer and is pursuing a Master’s degree



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India’s $5 Trillion Economy Push Explained: Why Modi Govt Wants To Merge 12 Banks Into 4 Mega ‘World-Class’ Lending Giants

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India’s  Trillion Economy Push Explained: Why Modi Govt Wants To Merge 12 Banks Into 4 Mega ‘World-Class’ Lending Giants


India’s Public Sector Banks Merger: The Centre is mulling over consolidating public-sector banks, and officials involved in the process say the long-term plan could eventually bring down the number of state-owned lenders from 12 to possibly just 4. The goal is to build a banking system that is large enough in scale, has deeper capital strength and is prepared to meet the credit needs of a fast-growing economy.

The minister explained that bigger banks are better equipped to support large-scale lending and long-term projects. “The country’s economy is moving rapidly toward the $5 trillion mark. The government is active in building bigger banks that can meet rising requirements,” she said.

Why India Wants Larger Banks

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Sitharaman recently confirmed that the government and the Reserve Bank of India have already begun detailed conversations on another round of mergers. She said the focus is on creating “world-class” banks that can support India’s expanding industries, rising infrastructure investments and overall credit demand.

She clarified that this is not only about merging institutions. The government and RBI are working on strengthening the entire banking ecosystem so that banks grow naturally and operate in a stable environment.

According to her, the core aim is to build stronger, more efficient and globally competitive banks that can help sustain India’s growth momentum.

At present, the country has a total of 12 public sector banks: the State Bank of India (SBI), the Punjab National Bank (PNB), the Bank of Baroda, the Canara Bank, the Union Bank of India, the Bank of India, the Indian Bank, the Central Bank of India, the Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) and the UCO Bank.

What Happens To Employees After Merger?

Whenever bank mergers are discussed, employees become anxious. A merger does not only combine balance sheets; it also brings together different work cultures, internal systems and employee expectations.

In the 1990s and early 2000s, several mergers caused discomfort among staff, including dissatisfaction over new roles, delayed promotions and uncertainty about reporting structures. Some officers who were promoted before mergers found their seniority diluted afterward, which created further frustration.

The finance minister addressed the concerns, saying that the government and the RBI are working together on the merger plan. She stressed that earlier rounds of consolidation had been successful. She added that the country now needs large, global-quality banks “where every customer issue can be resolved”. The focus, she said, is firmly on building world-class institutions.

‘No Layoffs, No Branch Closures’

She made one point unambiguous: no employee will lose their job due to the upcoming merger phase. She said that mergers are part of a natural process of strengthening banks, and this will not affect job security.

She also assured that no branches will be closed and no bank will be shut down as part of the consolidation exercise.

India last carried out a major consolidation drive in 2019-20, reducing the number of public-sector banks from 21 to 12. That round improved the financial health of many lenders.

With the government preparing for the next phase, the goal is clear. India wants large and reliable banks that can support a rapidly growing economy and meet the needs of a country expanding faster than ever.



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Stock market holidays in December: When will NSE, BSE remain closed? Check details – The Times of India

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Stock market holidays in December: When will NSE, BSE remain closed? Check details – The Times of India


Stock market holidays for December: As November comes to a close and the final month of the year begins, investors will want to know on which days trading sessions will be there and on which days stock markets are closed. are likely keeping a close eye on year-end portfolio adjustments, global cues, and corporate earnings.For this year, the only major, away from normal scheduled market holidays in December is Christmas, observed on Thursday, December 25. On this day, Indian stock markets, including the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE), will remain closed across equity, derivatives, and securities lending and borrowing (SLB) segments. Trading in currency and interest rate derivatives segments will continue as usual.Markets are expected to reopen on Friday, December 26, as investors return to monitor global developments and finalize year-end positioning. Apart from weekends, Christmas is the only scheduled market holiday this month, making December relatively quiet compared with other festive months, with regards to stock markets.The last trading session in November, which was November 28 (next two days being the weekend) ended flat. BSE Sensex slipped 13.71 points, or 0.02 per cent, to settle at 85,706.67, after hitting an intra-day high of 85,969.89 and a low of 85,577.82, a swing of 392.07 points. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty fell 12.60 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 26,202.95, halting its two-day rally.





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A Silent Threat Looms Over India’s Big Industries – Is Growth In Danger?

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A Silent Threat Looms Over India’s Big Industries – Is Growth In Danger?


New Delhi: As Indian exporters were already dealing with the heavy impact of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, a new threat has come the fore. A report by global consulting firm BCG warns that India’s industries linked to exports and bound by international rules are now at risk from climate change. The most vulnerable sectors include aluminium, iron, and steel, which could face big losses in profits, disruptions in operations and long-term challenges to their sustainability if prompt action is not taken.

BCG Managing Director and Senior Partner Sumit Gupta, who is also Asia-Pacific leader for climate & sustainability, told PTI that according to the Climate Risk Index 2026, India ranks among the top 10 countries most exposed to extreme weather conditions.

“The cost of ignoring climate change for India could be enormous,” he said, referring to the findings released at COP30.

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Citing data from the Reserve Bank of India and the World Economic Forum 2024, he explained that by 2030, extreme climate events could threaten 4.5% of India’s GDP, and by the end of the century, losses could range between 6.4% and more than 10% of national income if climate risks are not addressed.

Direct Impact On Companies

Gupta highlighted how the climate threats directly affect businesses. Extreme weather can destroy physical infrastructure such as roads and bridges, reduce workers’ hours and hamper overall productivity.

Regions with higher climate vulnerability may experience delays in project execution, and investment potential could decline as uncertainty grows.

Earnings Under Threat

BCG’s estimates suggest that globally, climate-related risks could put 5% to 25% of companies’ EBITDA at risk by 2050. Indian businesses are increasingly recognising the severity of the challenge, understanding that climate change threatens not only profits but also the long-term stability of their operations.

If India wants to protect its economy and exports, he advised, taking action on climate change is urgent and necessary.



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