Politics
Does Gaza deal mean the two-year-old war is over?
US President Donald Trump says the deal agreed between Israel and Hamas marks the first steps toward a “strong, durable, and everlasting peace” that will end the two-year-old Gaza war.
Yet, the agreement signed after indirect talks in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, a favoured location for Middle East peace conferences over the decades with a patchy record of success, is only an initial phase involving a ceasefire, a handover of hostages held in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners inside Israel, and a partial withdrawal of Israel from the enclave.
Plenty of pitfalls remain after negotiators left for later discussions about some of the thornier issues on which previous initiatives have foundered, such as the full extent of an Israeli withdrawal, the disarmament of Hamas, how to guarantee that war will not resume after this phase — and who could provide such a guarantee.
Have the guns fallen silent?
Not yet. Trump demanded Israel halt its bombing when Hamas first indicated partial acceptance of his 20-point plan on Friday. That has not happened. Scores of Palestinians have been killed since then in airstrikes and shelling, particularly in and around Gaza City, the focus of a recent Israeli offensive.
However, the bombardment has been more sporadic since Trump declared a deal had been secured on Wednesday, prompting celebrations in Israel, where families of hostages were jubilant in Tel Aviv’s hostages square, and in Gaza, where people gathered among the ruins even as blasts could be heard.
How does this differ from ceasefires that collapsed?
While this is a partial deal, a notable difference from previous ceasefire arrangements is that there is no deadline for reaching a full deal. It does not set a deadline of a few weeks, after which hostilities could resume if talks falter.
The jury is still out on whether that makes this deal more durable. There are those among Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s religious nationalist coalition who are already talking of more war. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a staunch opponent of any concession to Palestinians, has called for Hamas to be destroyed after the captives are returned.
But on this occasion, Trump has been far more vocal in his determination to hold feet to the fire on both sides, leaving less room for Israel to relaunch its offensive or Hamas to delay, even if past experience counsels caution over too much optimism.
Trump announced his plan, standing next to Netanyahu in Washington last week, with what seemed a “take-it-or-leave-it” offer for Hamas.
Yet when Hamas gave only a partial acceptance, Trump immediately demanded Israel stop bombing. And as the days ticked by in the Sharm el-Sheikh talks, he warned Hamas, “all HELL, like no one has ever seen before, will break out” if it did not sign up.
By stamping his authority, Trump may have gone some way to answering the key question of who will guarantee this deal does not collapse at the next hurdle.
So what happens next?
The timeline is emerging but still seems fluid.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the ceasefire would take effect once the agreement is ratified by his government, which would convene after a security cabinet meeting on Thursday.
An Israeli government spokeswoman said a ceasefire would go into force within 24 hours of the cabinet meeting. After that 24-hour period, the hostages held in Gaza will be freed within 72 hours, she said.
A source briefed on details of the agreement said earlier that Israeli troops would begin pulling back within 24 hours of the deal being signed.
Humanitarian aid to Palestinians should then start to flow. Calling for full access for humanitarian workers in Gaza, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the United Nations was ready to help and “prepared to move — now.”
Trump’s plan also calls for an international stabilisation force, which could start taking shape after a meeting of European ministers and top officials from Arab states in Paris on Thursday.
They were also due to discuss issues such as future governance of Gaza, aid, reconstruction and demilitarisation.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s office said Trump was expected to be in Jerusalem on Sunday.
What are the political calculations facing Hamas and Israel?
Both Israel and Hamas have shown a readiness to respond positively to pressure from Trump and others, but each side faces its own political calculations.
For Netanyahu, agreeing to the plan seems based on a calculation that he can stay on the right side of the United States, Israel’s vital ally, and win over an Israeli public desperate to see an end to the war, while conceding as little as possible to avoid alienating his religious nationalist coalition partners.
The 20-point plan, for example, offers a possible pathway, albeit highly conditional, to a Palestinian state, although Netanyahu has said that it will never happen.
Hamas has dropped its opposition to any deal that was only partial because of the risk of war resuming once hostages were handed over. It has also signed up to a deal calling for demilitarisation, which it had repeatedly rejected.
Hamas may be calculating that Trump’s determination is the best guarantee that war will not resume for now, while the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh have put the resistance group at the negotiating table to shape the future for Palestinians, even though the deal seeks to sideline it.
US President Donald Trump has said he could travel to Islamabad if a deal with Iran is signed there, signalling potential high-level involvement in ongoing negotiations mediated by Pakistan.
He added that if no agreement is reached with Iran, fighting will continue, and suggested the next round of talks could take place over the weekend.
On the ceasefire, Trump said progress was being made, adding that Iran is now willing to consider steps it had previously rejected. He also said he was not certain the ceasefire would need to be extended.
- EU welcomed Lebanon ceasefire announcement.
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- Lebanon-Israel to begin ceasefire at 5pm EST: Trump
US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that Lebanon and Israel had agreed on a 10-day ceasefire, as optimism grew that the Iran war may be nearing an end.
Trump said in a social media post that the ceasefire would start at 5pm eastern time (2100 GMT), aiming to halt a conflict between Israel and the Iran-aligned Lebanese group Hezbollah that was reignited by the US-Israeli war against Iran.
He said he had held “excellent conversations” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.
“These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve peace between their countries, they will formally begin a 10-day ceasefire at 5pm EST,” he said. “Both sides want to see peace, and I believe that will happen, quickly!”
Trump said he had directed US Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine to work with the two countries to achieve lasting peace.
The war with Iran spilt into Lebanon on March 2, when Hezbollah opened fire in support of Tehran, prompting an Israeli offensive in Lebanon 15 months after the last major conflict.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the ceasefire announcement, saying on X: “This is a relief, as this conflict has already claimed far too many lives.”
Breakthrough on ‘sticky issue’ between US and Iran
Thousands of people have been killed, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, since US-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, triggering Iranian airstrikes on Iran’s Gulf neighbours and reigniting the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
Soaring energy costs have rattled investors and policymakers globally since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply flows.
Closure of the strait has caused the worst oil price shock in history and forced the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to downgrade its outlook for the global economy, warning prolonged conflict could push the world to the brink of recession.
But hopes of a deal between Iran and the United States have been growing, with a two-week ceasefire in force.
A security source said a Pakistani mediator had made a breakthrough on “sticky issues”, although Tehran said the fate of its nuclear programme had not been resolved. Trump has said the accord would open the Strait of Hormuz.
Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Field Marshal Asim Munir, an important figure in mediation efforts, arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to try to prevent a renewal of the conflict after talks in Islamabad that ended without a deal.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday the trip had led to greater hopes for a second round of talks and an extension of a two-week ceasefire, but said fundamental differences remain over its nuclear programme.
‘Locked and Loaded’
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said troops were poised to restart combat operations if a deal was not reached with Iran.
“We are reloading with more power than ever before, and better intelligence,” Hegseth told a Pentagon briefing. “We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation, and on your energy industry. We’d rather not have to do it.”
But a security source told Reuters a deal was closing in and that the US wants a breakthrough before the ceasefire expires next week. Washington is offering to lift sanctions and unfreeze billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian assets, he said.
Iran will open the strait only if a permanent ceasefire is reached and there are United Nations guarantees that the US and Israel will not attack again in future, he said.
A separate government source said the talks would be held “soon” in Islamabad, although no date has been set.
Stock markets have rallied strongly in recent days on expectations of a swift resolution to the fighting, with global equities vaulting past their previous all-time highs in trading on Thursday. However, oil prices gained, showing continued uncertainty about the ceasefire prospects and the opening of the strait.
Iran’s nuclear ambitions were a sticking point at last weekend’s talks. The US proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran — an apparent concession from longstanding demands for a permanent ban. Tehran suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.
Washington has pressed for any highly enriched uranium (HEU) to be removed from Iran. Tehran has demanded that international sanctions against it be lifted.
Two Iranian sources said there were signs of a compromise emerging on the HEU stockpile, with Tehran considering shipping part, but not all, of it out of the country, something it had previously ruled out.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif received a ceremonial fighter jet escort from the Qatari air force as his aircraft entered Qatari airspace en route to Doha, marking a significant gesture of diplomatic goodwill and strong bilateral ties.
The escort was arranged as part of a warm welcome during the second leg of the prime minister’s tri-nation visit from April 15 to 18, which comes at a time of heightened Middle East tensions and ongoing diplomatic efforts to help de-escalate the US-Iran conflict.
Upon arrival, the prime minister thanked the Qatari leadership and the pilots for the honour.
During the flight, PM Shehbaz expressed gratitude, saying he was “honoured” by the escort and thanked Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani for the gesture.
He said the honour extended not only to him but also to the people and government of Pakistan.
Upon arrival at Doha International Airport, the prime minister and his delegation were warmly received by Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sultan bin Saad Al-Muraikhi. A smartly turned-out contingent of the Qatari Armed Forces presented a guard of honour, underscoring the significance of the visit.
In a gesture marking the occasion, Pakistani flags were displayed prominently at the airport and across parts of the Qatari capital, reflecting the close and friendly ties between the two countries.
Senior members of the Pakistani delegation accompanying the prime minister include Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, Minister for Information and Broadcasting Attaullah Tarar, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister Tariq Fatemi, and the prime minister’s spokesperson for international media, Mosharraf Zaidi.
The prime minister will also travel to Turkiye following his visit to Qatar, the Foreign Office said, adding that PM Shehbaz will participate in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, where he is scheduled to join the Leaders’ Panel alongside other global figures and present Pakistan’s perspective.
It added that the visits to Saudi Arabia and Qatar take place in a bilateral context, where the prime minister will discuss ongoing cooperation as well as regional peace and security.
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