Those who closely track the college coaching carousel recognize that there are rarely two light cycles in a row.

After a quiet 2024 (other than Bill Belichick’s stunning arrival at North Carolina) the upcoming carousel figures to be much more active. The first two weeks have reinforced that belief, as alarm bells are sounding again in Gainesville, Florida, and Stillwater, Oklahoma, and hot spots in between.

Some coaching situations are more urgent than others, including Oklahoma State‘s Mike Gundy, who barely escaped 2024 with his job and just suffered the worst loss of his Pokes tenure (69-3 at Oregon). Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry entered the 2025 season with win-now pressure and has started 0-2. Florida’s Billy Napier coached his way out of peril with a strong finish to last season but finds himself back on the hottest of seats after Saturday’s home loss to South Florida.

When analyzing the carousel this early, it’s important to separate perception from reality. The angst around Kalen DeBoer’s future at Alabama might be premature, as a hefty buyout and the circumstances of following Nick Saban should buy a little more time. Could DeBoer and other second-year coaches such as UCLA’s DeShaun Foster ultimately be in trouble? It’s possible but things need to play out a bit more.

Our staff is examining the coaches facing the most pressure only two weeks into the 2025 season, who has the best chances to turn down the heat and who could be next in line for what figures to be more Power 4 opportunities. — Adam Rittenberg

Whose early-season struggles have microwaved their seat?

Andrea Adelson: Florida coach Billy Napier appeared to be safe before the season began. The Gators reaffirmed their commitment to him last November, and then Florida finished 2024 on a four-game winning streak. With DJ Lagway and a host of others returning, Napier told ESPN in July he had a team that finally believed. “We were selling hope,” he said of his early days on the job. “Now it’s like, ‘It’s working.’ So there’s a confidence that we can go toe-to-toe with anybody, and I think that will go into this season.” But the same problems that have flummoxed Florida under Napier cropped up again in an 18-16 loss to South Florida. Undisciplined play, too many penalties and late game clock mismanagement gave the Bulls a chance to win. Lagway looked uncomfortable throughout, and now Napier is back on the hot seat. Florida is simply not supposed to lose to a non-Power 4 in-state school. A brutal schedule awaits: Back-to-back road games against LSU and Miami, before facing Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State. All eight teams are currently ranked.

Rittenberg: Napier’s situation jumps out because of what lies ahead for his team and, as Andrea correctly points out, the perception that he had fixed some of the issues that surfaced early last season and during his first two years in Gainesville. He might need to pull off two or three significant upsets to stabilize the situation. Although the total number of Power 4 openings in the upcoming cycle should rise, Florida would be the biggest, and could trigger movement elsewhere in the SEC or perhaps Big Ten.

The hope for Gundy is that Oklahoma State will rebound, as it has before when external expectations are lower. But the complete lack of competitiveness at Oregon is a significant concern for a team already missing starting quarterback Hauss Hejny (broken foot). Next Friday’s home game against Tulsa feels very significant, as Oklahoma State begins a stretch of four of five in Stillwater. If the Pokes don’t display tangible progress soon, a coaching change could be made.

Adelson: Virginia Tech’s Pry had an experienced team with high hopes in 2024, but the Hokies failed to meet expectations after a season-opening loss to Vanderbilt and finished 6-7. As a result, he made staff changes, hiring new offensive and defensive coordinators, and revamped his roster. Quarterback Kyron Drones remained a constant. Yet none of those changes appear to have Virginia Tech any closer to competing for a championship. The Hokies blew a 20-10 halftime lead to Vanderbilt, getting outscored 34-0 in the second half — its worst scoring margin in any half at home in the history of Lane Stadium. Virginia Tech is now 0-2 for the second time in three seasons, and Pry is 16-23 since his arrival in 2022.

Who could join them?

Rittenberg: Like Napier, DeBoer is dealing with the concern that he hasn’t remedied a bad habit from 2024 — losing to unranked opponents, which Florida State was coming off of a 2-10 season. His four losses to unranked foes match Saban’s total from the previous 14 seasons. Although many are justifiably looking toward Alabama’s Sept. 27 visit to Georgia, a team DeBoer beat last fall, the Tide’s ability to take care of their opponents before (Wisconsin) and after (Vanderbilt) seems equally important.

I’m also keeping a closer eye on the Big Ten, and specifically how UCLA’s Foster and Northwestern David Braun perform leading up to and beyond their Sept. 27 game. The season couldn’t be off to a worse start for UCLA, both on and off the field, after the spring/summer excitement around quarterback Nico Iamaleava‘s transfer. Northwestern’s 23-3 opening loss at Tulane has placed increased pressure on Braun to get the offense right ahead of the opening of the new $850 million Ryan Field in 2026. Wisconsin is another job being watched because of an extremely tough schedule ahead for coach Luke Fickell, beginning this week at Alabama.

Whose seat has cooled?

Mark Schlabach: It’s only two weeks into the season, but Auburn‘s Hugh Freeze and Arkansas’ Sam Pittman seem to have their programs headed back in the right direction. The Tigers picked up an impressive 38-24 victory at Baylor in their opener, then blasted Ball State 42-3 at home Saturday. Quarterback Jackson Arnold‘s legs have certainly helped, but Auburn will need to get more out of its passing game (he’s averaging only 2.7 yards per dropback on third and fourth down, as our colleague Bill Connelly noted).

After what should be another warmup against South Alabama on Saturday, the Tigers will get into the meat of their schedule with four straight games against ranked SEC foes: at Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and against Georgia and Missouri at home. That stretch will determine if the Tigers are truly back or not.

As for Arkansas, quarterback Taylen Green was spectacular in the Hogs’ first two games. He’s third in the FBS in total offense with 376.5 yards per game. In last week’s 56-14 rout of Arkansas State, Green ran for 151 yards with one touchdown, and passed for 269 yards with four scores. He’s flourishing during his second season in coordinator Bobby Petrino’s offense.

Like Auburn, the Razorbacks are about to be tested in a big way — eight of their final 10 regular-season games are against teams that are currently ranked. They go to No. 17 Ole Miss and Memphis before playing No. 8 Notre Dame (home), No. 15 Tennessee (road), No. 16 Texas A&M (home) and No. 24 Auburn (home). Arkansas plays No. 3 LSU (road), No. 7 Texas (road) and No. 25 Missouri (home) to close the regular season. Good luck.

Rittenberg: When Baylor fell behind by 14 points at SMU in the fourth quarter Saturday, I started to wonder whether coach Dave Aranda would face job pressure for the second straight season. Last fall, Aranda’s Bears started 2-4 before rallying to win their final six regular-season games. He faced an 0-2 start to this season, but an incredible rally led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson and others helped force overtime, and Baylor came away with a 48-45 win. Robertson has 859 passing yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions through the first two games. Although Baylor’s defense remains a concern, the team split a difficult two-game start and will get most of its toughest remaining opponents in Waco.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables also deserves a mention here, after his team outclassed Michigan on Saturday night. Venables probably wasn’t in imminent danger, especially with Oklahoma going through an athletic director transition after Joe Castiglione’s incredible run. But another .500-ish season with substandard offense would turn up the heat. Oklahoma has made upgrades by adding the package deal of quarterback John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. The schedule remains a grind, but the progress Venables needed in Year 4 seems to be taking shape.

Who would be the biggest player loss if Florida made a move?

Max Olson: If Florida ends up making a coaching change, the retention of Lagway would inevitably become a major topic. That is in no way a statement about Lagway’s loyalty to the Gators, but it’s clear he has shown a ton of loyalty to Napier as his coach. It’s probably fair to say, too, that a bunch of Florida players would be looking to their QB and his decision before making their own. Lagway wouldn’t have to put his name in the portal to determine his options; the potential tampering would start as soon as Napier is out, if not sooner. Texas A&M made a big push for a last-minute flip of the Texas native in December 2023 after coach Mike Elko took over the program. It’s also worth noting Lagway’s father played at Baylor, and the Bears will have to replace senior QB Sawyer Robertson for 2026. If a change at Florida were made, whoever takes over would have quite a fight on their hands to hold the roster together. There are plenty of good, young players, including starters in running back Jadan Baugh, wide receiver Vernell Brown III and linebacker Myles Graham and blue-chip prospects such as wire receiver Dallas Wilson and edge rusher LJ McCray, all of whom would be coveted.

Eli Lederman: Similar to the Gators’ current roster, eyes — including those of the program’s recruiting rivals across the country — would quickly turn to Florida’s 11th-ranked 2026 class if Napier exits between now and national signing day.

The headliner atop his incoming class is five-star defensive end JaReylan McCoy, ESPN’s No. 9 overall recruit in the 2026 cycle. Mississippi’s top-ranked prospect held heavy interest from LSU and Texas before he committed to Florida in June, and McCoy would have no shortage of non-Florida, late-cycle suitors. The same goes for four-star rusher Davian Groce; ESPN’s No. 4 running back was a priority target for Oklahoma, Houston and Baylor when he landed in Napier’s 2026 class last month.

ESPN 300 pledges, including defensive end Kevin Ford Jr. (No. 148 overall), running back Carsyn Baker (No. 173) and pass catchers Marquez Daniel (No. 227) and Justin Williams (No. 287), would also emerge among the other high-profile flip candidates. And though longtime quarterback pledge and Florida legacy Will Griffin has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to the Gators this year, a fall coaching change could potentially open the door, particularly if a QB-needy blue blood gets involved late in the cycle.

Who are coaching candidates to watch?

Schlabach: If Florida makes a move, it’s going to be the most coveted job on the market because of its tradition, recruiting base and financial resources in the SEC. Florida AD Scott Stricklin got a three-year contract extension, and he’ll need to get this hire right. He could swing for the fences for Oregon’s Dan Lanning, but I’m guessing it would be difficult to lure him from Nike founder Phil Knight’s checkbook.

Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin would be close to the top of the list given his success with quarterbacks and offenses. Kiffin has matured since his days as an offensive coordinator under Nick Saban at Alabama, and he has built a solid program at Ole Miss, where he has a 46-18 record in his sixth season. Kiffin knows the SEC and can recruit well in Florida.

Washington‘s Jedd Fisch might seem like an outsider, given his West Coast coaching roots, but he attended Florida and was a graduate assistant under Steve Spurrier in 1999-2000. Fisch’ overall record as a head coach is 25-29, but that mark is deceiving because he inherited such a bad program at Arizona. After going 1-11 in his first season in 2021, he guided the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2023. Quarterback Noah Fifita was the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year that season.

Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz might be another possibility. Drinkwitz, 42, has guided the Tigers to a 40-24 record in five-plus seasons. After so-so campaigns in his first three seasons, Missouri has won 10 games or more in each of the past two. He was named SEC Coach of the Year in 2023 after the Tigers went 11-2 and defeated Ohio State 14-3 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. Missouri is back in the AP Top 25 after beating Kansas 42-31 last week.

South Florida’s Alex Golesh, Kansas’ Lance Leipold and Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann might be on the short list as well.

Rittenberg: Kiffin and Drinkwitz certainly make the most sense from within the SEC, as both have some Spurrier in them and fit the offense-centric approach that Florida covets from its coaches. I’ll throw out another big name: Penn State coach James Franklin. A lot depends on how a championship-or-bust 2025 season goes, and Franklin certainly could continue at PSU, especially since he has the infrastructure and support that he coveted earlier in his time there. But coaches also talk about restarting their clocks, and after 12 seasons at Penn State, a change might make sense for him. Franklin has a home in Florida and has spent a lot of time in the state over the years.

If South Florida keeps rolling, Golesh will be one of the top coaches on the market for Power 4 openings. He’s a pedal-down recruiter who has varied experience in key areas of the country, including the SEC (Tennessee), Big Ten (Illinois) and Big 12 (Iowa State). There could be more openings in the SEC than those other conferences, and Golesh has worked in the state of Florida both as an offensive coordinator (UCF) and now a head coach.

Tulane’s Jon Sumrall is still the top candidate from a non-Power 4 school. I’d be a bit surprised if he’s not leading an SEC program in 2026 or shortly after. Sumrall is an Alabama native who played linebacker at Kentucky, and coached both at his alma mater and at Ole Miss in 2018. He will be the top name mentioned whenever the Mark Stoops era ends at Kentucky, but his return is far from a guarantee. Sumrall could look to other SEC jobs where making the CFP seems a bit more realistic.

Schlabach brought up Leipold, who is a fascinating candidate to examine. The 61-year-old could finish his career at Kansas, which opened its renovated stadium last month and is supporting the program unlike ever before. He also could make one big move. If he does, I see him ending up back in the Big Ten, especially if a job like Wisconsin opens. Leipold is from the state and spent three years as a Wisconsin graduate assistant early in coach Barry Alvarez’s run there.

Want one more? Sure you do. Let’s see how the season plays out at UNLV, but Dan Mullen is off to a 3-0 start in his return to the sideline, highlighted by last week’s win over UCLA. Mullen came to UNLV with a career record of 103-61, all in the SEC at Mississippi State and Florida. Schools seeking Power 4 experience could look at Mullen, who is only 53 and seems revived after spending three years away from coaching.