Business
Economic uncertainty blamed for ‘lacklustre’ retail performance last month
Analysists have blamed rising economic uncertainty for a “lacklustre” July that saw Scottish retail sales fall in real terms compared with the same month last year.
According to figures from the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) and KPMG, total sales in Scotland rose 0.1% last month compared with July 2024, when they had decreased by 0.9%.
However when adjusted for inflation this represents a year-on-year fall of 0.5%.
Food sales in Scotland were down 1.4% compared with July 2024, when they had decreased by just 0.3%.
This was despite a strong opening to the month when hot weather led to a “boost” in spending on barbecues and summer meals.
Non-food sales on the other hand rose by 1.4% compared with the same period last year, with analysists saying phones and some furniture and toy ranges performed well.
Adjusted for the effects of online sales, non-food sales increased 1.6% on July 2024, when they had decreased by 1.5%.
Ewan MacDonald-Russell, deputy head of the SRC, said: “July was a lacklustre month for Scottish retailers as sales again disappointed.
“When adjusted for inflation retail sales in Scotland fell by 0.5%. That’s a slight improvement on June’s figures, but demonstrates shoppers continue to cut back on shopping as economic uncertainty continues to rise.
“Within the general disappointment there were some bright spots. Food sales shone in the opening half of the month as Scots took advantage of the warm weather to cook barbeque and summer meals.
“Phone sales did well, as did some toys and furniture ranges. Against that televisions continue to disappoint, with few households investing in high-end entertainment despite the summer plethora of sporting events.
“Fashion ranges performed poorly, albeit the likelihood is shoppers did their summer wardrobe shopping earlier in the year when the sunshine emerged.
“The harsh truth is Scots are holding back spending as worries about the economy grow.
“That is leaving shops in the lurch – facing higher costs as a consequence of last year’s UK Government budget without the growth needed to pay those bills.
“With little sight the economic weather will brighten, many retailers, especially those on the high street, face increasingly unpalatable choices in the coming months.”
Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG, described the current trading environment as “challenging” for retailers.
“The UK’s fifth warmest July on Met Office record brought a boost to home appliance and food and drink sales,” she said.
“But rising inflation was also a driver of the latter and monthly non-food sales are only growing at around 1% on average at present.
“With employment costs having risen and inflation both a business and consumer side pressure, it remains a challenging trading environment for many retailers.
“While the majority of consumers that KPMG surveys are confident in their ability to balance their monthly household budgets, big ticket purchases are more considered in the context of rising essential costs and ongoing caution about the economy and labour market.
“Holidays are the priority for many this summer but those heading away have had to account for a higher cost of travel.
“Consequently, spending in some areas of the retail sector remains subdued and competition for consumer spend will remain fierce.”
The figures were published in the SRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor for July.
Business
Crude oil surpasses $100: WTI up 30%, brent crude reaches $118; what it means? – The Times of India
Oil markets skyrocketed beyond the $100 mark on Monday as Middle East conflict continues to intensify, fueling fears about energy supplies disruption and shipping routes across the region. Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed past $118 a barrel. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate followed a similar trajectory as the light, sweet crude grade jumped 30% higher than its previous close of $90.90 on Friday.At 0230 GMT, WTI crude climbed 30.04% to $118.21 per barrel before paring some of its gains, while Brent crude was trading 27.54% higher at $118.22.The latest spike came after an already volatile week for oil markets. Last week, US crude prices had surged 36% while Brent rose 28%, as the conflict, now entering its tenth day, began drawing in regions central to the production and transportation of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.Roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil move through the Strait of Hormuz every day, accounting for about one-fifth of global oil supply, according to independent research firm Rystad Energy. However, the threat of Iranian missile and drone attacks has nearly halted tanker traffic through the narrow waterway. The strait, bordered to the north by Iran, is a critical route for shipments from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Iran.Export constraints have begun to affect production levels in the region. Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have reduced oil output as storage facilities fill up due to limited export capacity. At the same time, strikes targeting energy infrastructure have intensified supply concerns, with Iran, Israel and the United States attacking oil and gas facilities since the conflict began.The last time Brent and US crude futures traded near the current levels was in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Natural gas prices have also moved higher during the conflict, although the gains have been more modest compared to oil. Late Sunday, natural gas was trading at around $3.33 per 1,000 cubic feet, about 4.6% above its Friday closing price of $3.19, after rising roughly 11% during the previous week.Oil’s rise has also begun to show up in fuel prices. In the United States, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $3.45 on Sunday, about 47 cents higher than a week earlier, according to the AAA motor club. Diesel prices climbed to roughly $4.60 per gallon, up around 83 cents over the same period.Meanwhile, crude oil is also a key ingredient in many everyday consumer goods, including detergents, biscuits, toothpaste, paints and packaging materials. Petroleum-based derivatives are widely used in products such as soaps, shampoos, creams, hair oils, as well as in plastic bottles and tubes. In India, these inputs account for over 25% of production costs for FMCG companies and nearly 40% for paint manufacturers. As a result, if crude oil prices continue to rise, the cost of these daily-use products could increase further.Some analysts and investors have further cautioned that if oil prices remain above $100 a barrel for a prolonged period, the global economy could struggle to absorb the impact.
Business
Iran war: Oil prices jump above $100 for first time in four years
Major disruption to energy supplies threatens to push up prices for consumers and businesses around the world.
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Business
Aramco scrips surge 4%, most in three years – The Times of India
Saudi Aramco jumped the most since April 2023 on Sunday as the Iran war entered its second week, prompting supply disruptions that may send oil prices higher when global markets reopen. Shares of the state-backed oil giant climbed as much as 4.9% in Riyadh before paring gains to close up 4.1%, on the first day of trading for the stock since Brent crude prices topped $90 a barrel on Friday.Brent may climb further after UAE and Kuwait started reducing oil production amid a near-closure of Strait of Hormuz waterway, adding to interruptions affecting worldwide energy supply and exports. “For Aramco, we believe that the gain in oil prices would offset a decline in exports,” said Junaid Ansari, head of research and strategy at Kamco Investment Co. “We also believe that Aramco should be able to re-route a bulk of its shipments to the Red Sea. It’s just about logistics and handling the excess capacity.” Aramco has been redirecting oil cargoes to Red Sea facilities on Saudi Arabia’s west coast to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
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