Economists have projected a moderate but resilient growth trajectory for Europe in 2026, supported by public investment, improving industrial activity and stable inflation, even as fiscal pressures and geopolitical risks continue to shape the macroeconomic landscape, according to Natixis, a corporate and investment banking firm.

Industrial production accelerated in the second half of 2025, contributing to the creation of 1.12 million jobs and pushing unemployment down to 6.2 per cent. Record disbursements from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, which reached €86 billion (~$101.48 billion) by end-2025, also supported investment and labour market strength, Natixis said in a press release.

Trade dynamics remain mixed. While EU goods exports rose 3.5 per cent, the increase was largely influenced by Ireland, with exports excluding Ireland declining 5 per cent. Exports to China continued to contract, reflecting structural market share erosion. Nevertheless, new trade agreements with Mercosur and India and expanding intra-EU trade are expected to partly offset external headwinds.

Natixis expects Europe to record moderate but resilient growth in 2026, supported by public investment, industrial recovery and stable inflation.
EU exports show mixed trends, while quarterly growth is forecast at 0.3-0.4 per cent.
Germany and Iberia are set to outperform, Italy may lag, and Central Europe remains resilient.
UK growth is projected to soften as inflation moves towards target.

Natixis forecasts quarterly EU growth of 0.3-0.4 per cent throughout 2026, underpinned by strong labour markets, higher industrial production and supportive monetary conditions following European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts. However, fiscal expansion aimed at defence, green energy and digital infrastructure is placing pressure on public finances, with debt ratios projected to reach 119 per cent in France, 132 per cent in Italy and 110 per cent in Belgium by 2027, while Germany and the Netherlands retain greater fiscal flexibility.

Inflation across the euro area is expected to remain near target at around 1.9 per cent in 2026, rising slightly to 2 per cent in 2027, allowing the ECB to maintain rates with a dovish bias. Natixis indicated that a stronger euro, particularly above 1.25 against the US dollar, could prompt rate cuts to preserve competitiveness.

Country-level outlooks point to divergent performance. Germany is positioned for stronger growth following a major fiscal package, supported by rising manufacturing orders and wage increases that should bolster consumption. France is expected to see growth improve to 1.1 per cent in 2026 after political uncertainty weighed on performance, though US tariffs have affected key export sectors such as wine and cosmetics.

Southern Europe shows a two-speed pattern, with Spain and Portugal projected to expand above 2 per cent, supported by robust labour markets, low inflation and effective use of EU funds. Italy is forecast to grow 0.9 per cent, constrained by weak domestic demand and high interest costs. Debt reduction progress is most notable in Portugal and Spain, while Italy faces persistent structural challenges.

Central Europe is emerging as another area of resilience. Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary are benefiting from strong domestic demand and real wage growth of 7-11 per cent, driven partly by Recovery and Resilience Plan investments. Poland is expected to grow 3.5 per cent in 2026, while Hungary’s growth could accelerate if political developments unlock suspended EU funds.

In the UK, growth is projected to ease from 1.3 per cent in 2025 to 1.1 per cent in 2026 amid softer trade and labour market conditions. Inflation is expected to return to the 2 per cent target by spring 2026, supporting expectations of at least two Bank of England rate cuts during the year.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)