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Eurozone GDP growth to stay subdued at 1.1% in 2025: S&P

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Eurozone GDP growth to stay subdued at 1.1% in 2025: S&P



Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to remain subdued this year growing at 1.1 per cent, as multiple uncertainties weigh on domestic demand while higher US tariffs start to weaken foreign demand, according to S&P Global Ratings.

After 2025, the growth is expected to accelerate above the potential, reaching 1.4 per cent in 2027. Lower policy rates, strong private balance sheets that translate into a resilient labour market, and expansive fiscal policies will provide medium-term tailwinds.

“Our forecasts have only changed slightly since our last update in June 2025. The US and EU administrations’ trade deal has not altered the macroeconomic picture much. Our higher GDP growth forecasts for 2025 reflect a larger GDP carryover at the end of 2024 due to data revisions in some countries,” S&P Global Ratings said in its latest report titled, ‘Economic Outlook Eurozone Q4 2025: Recovery Continues Despite Consumer Hesitancy.’

Eurozone GDP growth is forecast at 1.1 per cent in 2025, with recovery accelerating to 1.4 per cent by 2027, supported by lower rates, strong labour markets, and fiscal policy, according to S&P Global.
Inflation is projected at 2.1 per cent in 2025 before easing.
Risks include higher US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and weak confidence, though impacts vary across countries.

The eurozone economy remained resilient in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025. However, this is largely because exports to the US—which were front run ahead of tariffs in the first quarter—were slow to reverse in the second quarter. The report believes this reversal will extend into the third quarter.

The euro has appreciated more quickly than expected, largely owing to market concerns about the independence of US monetary policy. While this has given European consumers an extra boost via lower energy prices, it has not prompted a downward revision of inflation forecasts.

Strong labour-market conditions are expected to keep real wage growth above productivity for some time, sustaining inflationary pressure over the medium term.

S&P Global Ratings projects inflation to ease to 1.8 per cent in 2026 and 1.9 per cent in 2027, aligning closely with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2 per cent target. Barring external shocks, the ECB deposit facility rate is considered to have bottomed out at 2 per cent in the current rate-cutting cycle. Quantitative tightening is also nearing completion, which may ease long-term yields on euro-denominated government bonds.

Key risks to the baseline growth outlook include heightened tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and weak consumer confidence in certain European economies. Additional spillover effects may emerge from slower growth among Europe’s major trading partners, particularly the US, added the report.

Inflation risks remain two-sided: it could rise further in the event of escalating trade tensions, fiscal stimulus overlapping with labour-market bottlenecks, or geopolitical shocks disrupting commodity markets. Conversely, it could fall if trade diversions favour Europe or the euro appreciates more sharply than expected.

Following the recent EU–US trade announcement, baseline assumptions now include a maximum US tariff of 15 per cent on most manufactured goods. This compares with June 2025 assumptions of 10 per cent on all goods.

Despite these changes, the macroeconomic implications remain largely unchanged. At the aggregate EU level, the direct trade impact is estimated at around -0.4 per cent of GDP, only slightly lower than the -0.5 per cent implied by the April 2 announcement. Nevertheless, tariffs are now about eight times higher than they were before April, when the US levied an average tariff of less than 2 per cent on European imports.

Importantly, the tariff burden will vary across countries. Ireland and Belgium face fewer negative impacts. In contrast, Switzerland—though not an EU member—has seen its outlook deteriorate sharply after the US imposed 39 per cent tariffs, significantly affecting its growth prospects.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)



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US’ Saks Global secures $500 mn as it eyes post-bankruptcy exit

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US’ Saks Global secures 0 mn as it eyes post-bankruptcy exit



American multi-brand luxury retailer Saks Global Enterprises LLC has entered into a restructuring support agreement with an ad hoc group of senior secured bondholders, securing a commitment of $500 million in exit financing as it progresses through Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, with plans to emerge by summer.

The company said the agreement marks a key milestone in its transformation journey, reflecting continued support from capital partners.

Saks Global has secured $500 million in exit financing under a restructuring support agreement as it progresses through Chapter 11, targeting emergence by summer.
The company is advancing its reorganisation plan, strengthening brand partnerships and inventory flows, with over 650 brands resuming shipments.
Improved inventory has boosted customer engagement, while it aims for double-digit EBITDA margins.

“Achieving this important milestone underscores the progress we are making on our transformation and reflects our capital partners’ confidence in our go-forward vision,” said Geoffroy van Raemdonck, CEO at Saks Global.

Saks Global is currently engaging with stakeholders on a formal Plan of Reorganisation, expected to be filed in the coming weeks. The retailer aims to emerge from Chapter 11 by summer with a strengthened financial structure, targeting double-digit adjusted EBITDA margins and long-term sustainable growth, the company said in a press release.

The company plans to leverage an integrated retail model, combining optimised physical stores in key luxury markets with distinct e-commerce platforms and remote selling capabilities. It also intends to enhance its curated product offering through stronger brand partnerships and deeper customer insights.

Operationally, Saks Global reported progress since filing for bankruptcy protection. Over 650 brand partners have resumed shipments, unlocking $1.5 billion in retail receipts and covering more than 90 per cent of expected inventory for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. March inventory receipts rose 18 per cent year on year (YoY).

Improved inventory flow has translated into stronger customer engagement, with spend per store visit increasing 6 per cent and online conversion rising 11 per cent. The company also noted gains in full-price selling across its banners, including Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman.

“As we advance the restructuring process, our focus remains on strengthening brand relationships and delivering personalised luxury experiences,” added van Raemdonck, highlighting confidence in completing the restructuring with sufficient liquidity and positioning the business for future growth.

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Germany unveils $1.9-bn fuel price relief package amid energy shock

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Germany unveils .9-bn fuel price relief package amid energy shock



Germany yesterday announced a €1.6-billion ($1.9-billion) fuel price relief package for households and businesses struggling with the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict.

Following talks between his CDU party and its coalition partners, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his government has decided to cut the tax on petrol and diesel by around 17 euro cents ($0.19) for two months.

Germany yesterday announced a €1.6-billion ($1.9-billion) fuel price relief package for households and businesses struggling with the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his government has decided to cut the tax on petrol and diesel by around $0.19 for two months.
The funds for the relief measures would be financed by higher taxes on tobacco.

The announcement followed another surge in oil prices after the US-Iran peace talks collapsed and US President Donald Trump’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

The war “is the root cause of the problems we face in our own country”, said Merz, stressing that Berlin is doing all it could to try to end the conflict.

“This will very quickly improve the situation for drivers and businesses in the country, and above all for those who, mainly for professional reasons, spend a great deal of time on the road,” he told a news conference in Berlin.

The funds for the relief measures would be financed by higher taxes on tobacco, a finance ministry spokesman was cited as saying by global newswires.

Employers can also pay staff tax-free bonuses of up to €1,000 ($1,170) to mitigate the impacts of inflation, which has already started rising in Germany, the government announced.

“At the same time, we cannot offset every single outcome on the market with government funds… The state cannot absorb all uncertainties, not all risks, not all disruptions in global politics,” Merz cautioned.

He said the war’s effects are likely to last long. “The German economy will face a significant burden over an extended period,” he added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



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ASEAN+3 nations must safeguard fiscal viability, rebuild buffers: AMRO

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ASEAN+3 nations must safeguard fiscal viability, rebuild buffers: AMRO



With fiscal positions weakened and policy space narrowed, policymakers in the ASEAN+3 region must prioritise safeguarding fiscal sustainability and rebuilding buffers, according to the ASEAN+3 Fiscal Policy Report (AFPR) 2026 released recently by the ASEAN +3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

At the same time, growing demands on fiscal policy require governments not only to respond to immediate shocks, but also to support growth, facilitate structural transformation and reduce poverty and inequality over the medium to long term, it noted.

With fiscal positions weakened and policy space narrowed, ASEAN+3 policymakers must safeguard fiscal sustainability and rebuild buffers, the ASEAN+3 Fiscal Policy Report 2026 said.
Governments should also support growth, facilitate structural transformation and reduce poverty and inequality over the medium to long term, it noted.
Particular attention should be given to liabilities outside the budget.

ASEAN+3 comprises members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, along with China, South Korea and Japan.

These competing demands are compounded by sluggish revenue growth and rigid budget structures. Addressing these challenges will require stronger fiscal management frameworks, including improvements in risk management, fiscal aggregate management, strategic resource allocation, spending efficiency and revenue mobilisation.

The report also highlights the importance of comprehensive fiscal risk management, urging policymakers to strengthen the identification, assessment and disclosure of fiscal risks.

Particular attention should be given to liabilities outside the budget, including borrowing by off-budget public entities and government arrears.

Systematic monitoring and proactive management of contingent liabilities are essential, especially those related to government guarantees, public-private partnerships, state-owned enterprises and social security obligations, the report remarked.

Enhancing fiscal aggregate management, alongside improving strategic resource allocation and spending efficiency, will be critical to meeting rising expenditure demands in line with national priorities, while safeguarding fiscal sustainability and rebuilding buffers, it added.

The report further encourages policymakers to implement comprehensive and durable revenue-enhancing measures, including strengthening tax administration—particularly through digitalisation—rationalising tax expenditures and advancing structural reforms to major taxes.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



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