Business
Fed chair Powell raises hopes of US rate cut
Jerome Powell, the head of the US central bank, has given a rocket boost to expectations that there will be an interest rate cut in September, a move President Trump has been demanding for months.
Speaking to central bankers gathered at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell also argued that the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs could prove temporary.
But he did not, as some had expected, address the additional challenges he has faced in recent months: the political pressure exerted on the US central bank, Trump’s barrage of name-calling and demands for Powell to be removed from his post.
The shift to a more “dovish” stance, suggesting an easing of the cost of borrowing, sent share prices higher.
Economists and investors were already expecting borrowing rates to come down from their current 4.25 to 4.5% range. Recent weakness in the US jobs market raised those expectations further, but the impact on prices of Trump’s sweeping tariffs had raised doubts.
“In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation,” Powell said.
Central banks typically cut rates to boost growth if there are signs of slowing economy and falling employment, as it makes it cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow.
But boosting growth has to be balanced with keeping a check on rising prices. Higher interest rates can help control inflation, which is often seen as a central bank’s main priority.
Powell said the effects of tariffs on consumer prices were now “clearly visible” but said that there was a “reasonable” case to be made that inflation would be “relatively short lived – a one-time shift in the price level”.
He said it would take time for the price changes to work their way through, but he downplayed the likelihood of inflation becoming embedded due to increased wage demands, or higher inflation expectations.
As interest rates were already “in restrictive territory” – high enough to be having a dampening impact on economic activity – Powell suggested that “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance”.
The only time Powell appeared to make reference to the extra pressure exerted by the Trump presidency was when he cautioned against a presumption that a September rate cut was set in stone.
He said: “Monetary policy is not on a preset course”.
Members of the policy making committee would take the decision “based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks.
“We will never deviate from that approach,” he said.
Friday’s speech is likely to be Powell’s final address to the annual gathering of the country’s central bankers in Jackson Hole, as his term comes to an end in May 2026.
He was appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve by Trump in 2017.
Since then however Trump has expressed increasing animosity, hurling personal insults at the central banker, including calling him a “numbskull” and a “stubborn moron”, because he did not support the president’s calls for rapid, large cuts to borrowing rates.
Trump has also publicly raised the idea of removing Powell from his post early, although it is not clear that he has the legal authority to do so.
Earlier this week the president called for another of the Fed’s officials, Lisa Cook, to resign, over alleged mortgage fraud. She said she would not be “bullied” into leaving.
Investors welcomed Powell’s speech, pushing the main American share indexes sharply higher in the minutes after he began speaking. By the end of the day’s trading in the US, the broad S&P 500 index was around 1.5% higher.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said the Fed had opted against being the “party-pooper”.
“Chair Powell has shown he has an open mind to reading the data tea leaves,” he said.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US said: “Powell opened the door a little wider to a cut in rates in September.”
But she said the Fed clearly remained concerned about the risk of rising prices.
“There is more caution than the markets are giving him credit for,” she said.
Capital Economics’ deputy chief North America economist, Stephen Brown, said that while a September rate cut now looked “almost nailed on”, higher job creation or “much more concerning” price data in August could still trigger a delay.
Business
BP profits more than double as oil trading booms amid Iran war
BP has come under fire after revealing profits more than doubled in the first three months of the year, thanks to the soaring cost of crude caused by the Iran war.
Chief executive Meg O’Neill praised the quarter as sending the firm “in the right direction” and “strengthening the balance sheet” – but critics have labelled the energy giant’s revenues as “horrifying” as “millions suffer the fallout” from war.
The FTSE 100 firm revealed its preferred profit measure – underlying replacement cost profit – surged by over 130% to a better-than-expected $3.2bn (£2.4bn) in the first quarter, up from $1.38bn (£1.02bn) a year earlier and $1.54bn (£1.13bn) in the previous three months. Most analysts had expected first-quarter profits of $2.67bn (£1.97bn).
Campaigners accused the group of profiting at the expense of households, who have seen fuel prices rocket at the pumps and are set to see energy bills jump higher once more when the price cap is next updated on July 1.
The price of oil has risen from the mid-$60s range in February to over $100 now, spiking close to $120 several times during the course of the Iran war.
Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at campaigning organisation Global Witness, said: “It is horrifying to see BP’s profits grow as millions suffer the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran. Unfortunately we’ve been here before – when Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago we saw big oil firms make bumper profits from spiralling fuel costs.
“As oil prices drive up bills once again, it’s clear that fossil fuel companies don’t enhance affordability or energy security, they make life worse. They destroy the climate, push up the cost of living, and rake in billions in profit while innocent civilians die.
“It’s well overdue that we make oil companies pay for the damage their doing. If they broke it, they need to fix it. It’s clear they can afford to. BP profits, we all pay.”
Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, added: “Just as we saw in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fossil fuel giants are quids in when global instability drastically inflates fuel prices.
“But again, it’s ordinary people who pay the price when soaring energy prices threaten to plunge the UK into an even deeper cost-of-living crisis.”
The End Fuel Poverty Coalition called for a windfall tax on firms profiting from the Iran-related energy crisis.
The campaign group’s co-ordinator Simon Francis said: “These astronomical profits are a startling reminder that when conflict drives up the price of oil and gas, energy companies profit and households pay.”
BP’s new chief executive Meg O’Neill, who took over at the helm on April 1, said the group was ensuring fuel supplies are met across the UK.
She said: “The teams across BP are playing their part to keep oil, gas and refined products flowing during an incredibly challenging time – focused on maintaining safe, reliable and cost-efficient operations.”
She added: “We are working with customers and governments to get fuel where it’s needed, helping minimise disruption and the impact it can have on people’s lives.”
Ms O’Neill took over from Murray Auchincloss, who himself served only two years in the role after succeeeding Bernard Looney’s three-year tenure. Prior to the recent regular changes, Bob Dudley spent a full decade in the job up to 2020.
BP have struggled with strategy direction and the transition to clean energy, first doubling down on their green plan before an abrupt about-face turn.
In share price terms, the results saw BP rise 2.5 per cent in early trading on Tuesday, adding to a surge of more than 28 per cent in the past three months alone, as investors watched a soaring oil price and predicted the profits to come.
“In February, BP announced it was halting share buybacks as weak oil prices hurt profitability. How times change,” said Freetrade’s investment writer, Duncan Ferris.
“The firm has been among the best-performing supermajors since the escalation of conflict in Iran. Higher oil prices, and the opportunities they offer to the company’s traders, have breathed life into a stock battered by faltering low-carbon projects and investor unrest.”
Oil prices have raced higher since the US-Israel war on Iran started on February 28 and are now more than 60% up so far this year.
Brent crude reached close to 120 dollars a barrel at one stage and, despite falling back, is still above the 100 dollars level as peace talks falter and amid fears over a looming global energy supply crisis.
BP’s update showed its customers and products division – including its oil trading unit – reported profits of 2.5 billion (£1.84 billion), compared with 1.4 billion dollars (£1.03 billion) in the previous quarter and just 103 million dollars (£76.2 million) a year ago as traders were able to capitalise on highly volatile oil prices.
Additional reporting by PA
Business
Oil prices edge higher as Trump weighs Iran’s latest proposal to open Hormuz
Oil prices jumped on Tuesday as Donald Trump weighed Iran’s latest proposal to end the war.
The US president is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal, a US official said on Monday. Iranian sources disclosed that Tehran’s proposal avoided addressing its nuclear programme until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.
Trump’s displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries supply equal to about 20 per cent of global oil and gas consumption, and the US keeping in place its blockade of Iranian ports.
Brent crude rose to $108.13 per barrel, hovering near a three-week high, while US West Texas Intermediate went up to $96.48.
Both benchmarks are well above pre-war levels. Brent was trading at $72 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February.
Asian stocks were broadly subdued at the opening. While MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.12 per cent, hovering near the record high it touched on Monday, Nikkei fell 0.5 per cent.
The S&P 500 eked out modest gains on Monday and was on course for a nearly 10 per cent gain for April. US stock futures were 0.1 per cent higher in Asian hours.
Indian shares are set to open lower on Tuesday, with GIFT Nifty futures pointing to the benchmark Nifty 50 opening below Monday’s close of 24,092.70. Both Nifty and Sensex snapped a three-session losing run on Monday, led by a rebound in technology stocks, but the broader momentum remained constrained by unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Elevated oil prices are a particular headwind for India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, heightening inflation risks, pressuring economic growth and widening the country’s import bill.
Foreign portfolio investors offloaded domestic stocks worth Rs 11.5bn ($122m) on Monday, extending their selling streak to a sixth straight session.
Vessel crossings showed signs of recovery over the weekend, according to the maritime intelligence firm Windward, but analysts warned increased movement was yet to translate into a surge in oil and gas flows.
Iran reportedly offered to end its blockade of the waterway without addressing its nuclear programme, passing the proposal to Washington through Pakistani mediators. But Mr Trump has made ending Iran’s atomic programme a condition for any deal.
Central banks are also in focus this week, with the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all due to announce policy decisions. All are expected to hold rates steady, but markets will be watching closely for signals about how policymakers plan to respond to the inflationary pressure from the war.
“The BOJ is likely to stay highly sensitive to market volatility,” Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, told Reuters. “Our base case remains one single 25 basis point hike this year in July, but a June rate rise becomes more likely if the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed after mid-May.”
Business
Oil prices climbs as no end to Iran war shows no signs of ending – SUCH TV
Oil prices extended their gains on Tuesday as efforts to end the US-Iran war appear stalled, with the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway still mainly shut, keeping energy supplies from the key Middle East producing region out of the reach of global buyers.
US President Donald Trump is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal aimed at ending the war, a US official said on Monday.
Iranian sources disclosed on Monday that Tehran’s proposal avoided addressing its nuclear program until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.
Trump’s displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries supply equal to about 20% of global oil and gas consumption, and the US keeping in place its blockade of Iranian ports.
Brent crude futures for June climbed 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $108.68 a barrel, after gaining 2.8% in the previous session to its highest close since April 7. The contract is up for a seventh day.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June rose 58 cents, or 0.6%, to $96.96, after gaining 2.1% in the previous session.
An earlier round of negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed last week following failed face-to-face talks.
“For oil traders, it’s not the rhetoric that matters any more, but the actual physical flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and right now, that flow remains constrained,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, said in a note.
Razaqzada added that even if a resolution is reached, production outages and logistical challenges mean recovery could take months.
Ship-tracking data revealed significant disruptions in the region, with six Iranian oil tankers forced to turn back due to the US blockade.
However, a liquefied natural gas tanker managed by the United Arab Emirates’ Abu Dhabi National Oil Co did cross the Strait of Hormuz and appears to be near India, ship-tracking data showed on Monday.
Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, between 125 and 140 vessels transited the strait daily.
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