Business
Stocks up as Powell leaves door ajar for rate cut
The FTSE 100 posted another record closing peak on Friday as Jerome Powell said shifting economic risks may justify an interest rate cut in the US.
The FTSE 100 index closed up 12.20 points, 0.1%, at 9,321.40. It earlier traded as high as 9,357.51.
The FTSE 250 ended up 259.39 points, 1.2%, at 22,077.23 and the AIM All-Share finished 6.17 points higher, 0.8%, at 765.03.
For the week, the FTSE 100 rose 2.0%, the FTSE 250 advanced 1.5% and the AIM All-Share climbed 0.6%.
In a keenly awaited speech, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell left the door open to an interest rate cut at its September meeting, noting a “shifting” balance of economic risks may warrant such a move.
Speaking at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, Mr Powell said: “The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”
But he added “the stability of the unemployment rate and other labour market measures allow us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance”.
Padhraic Garvey at ING commented: “Chair Powell could have been super balanced, or even hawkish. But he effectively chose to endorse the market discount for a rate-cutting phase ahead. It’s had quite the reaction. Risk assets are up, the dollar down.”
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 2.0%, as did the Nasdaq Composite, while the S&P 500 jumped 1.6%.
On the labour market, the Fed chairman said while it “appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising”.
On tariffs, Mr Powell said a “reasonable base case” is that they create a “one-time” shift up in the price level, although he added those effects will take time to fully work their way into the economy.
“In the near-term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside – a challenging situation,” Mr Powell said.
“With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” he added.
While stocks rose, the dollar fell, while US bond yields declined.
The pound jumped to 1.3539 US dollars late on Friday in London, compared to 1.3426 US dollars at the equities close on Thursday.
The euro firmed to 1.1726 US dollars, higher against 1.1619 US dollars. Against the yen, the dollar was trading lower at 146.61 yen compared to 148.21 yen.
In Europe, the CAC 40 in Paris ended up 0.5%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt closed up 0.3%.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was at 4.26%, narrowed from 4.34%. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was 4.87%, trimmed from 4.94%.
In London, trading recovered from a sluggish start supported by news that UK consumer confidence improved in August, boosted by the latest interest rate cut, although uncertainty over the possibility of future tax hikes and inflationary pressures weighed on expectations going forward.
The GfK consumer confidence index rose to minus 17 in August from minus 19 in July, above the FXStreet-cited consensus forecast of minus 20.
Consumer expectations for their personal financial situation over the next 12 months rose to plus 5 in August from plus 2 in July, while expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months declined to minus 30 from minus 29.
Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “The biggest changes in August are in confidence in personal finances, with the scores looking back and ahead a year each up by three points.
“This is likely due to the Bank of England’s August 7 cut in interest rates, delivering the lowest cost of borrowing for more than two years.”
AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth said the slight uptick is “good news” for retailers, hospitality and travel businesses, but “no-one will be getting carried away given this is just a case of people feeling a bit less bad rather than genuinely optimistic about the economic outlook”.
On the FTSE 100, gains were broad-based with Asian-focused bank Standard Chartered leading the way, up 4.2%, while housebuilders Persimmon and Berkeley climbed 2.3% and 2.2% respectively, and British Airways owner, IAG, added 2.3%.
On the FTSE 250, WH Smith rallied 11%, recouping a small slice of Thursday’s dramatic 42% fall in the wake of lowered guidance after an accounting error.
Morgan Advanced Minerals rose 3.6% after Vesuvius agreed to buy its Molten Metal Systems business for a total enterprise value of £92.7 million.
In addition, the England-based manufacturer of carbon and ceramic materials, said it has instructed Investec Bank to launch the third tranche of its ongoing share buyback immediately upon completion of the second tranche.
Each tranche to date has been for up to £10 million, under a total buyback programme for up to £40 million.
Revolution Beauty leapt 20% as it announced the return of its co-founders to the business after terminating its formal sales process.
The news came as the firm pledged to slash costs amid declining sales and profitability, and raised £15 million via a placing and subscription.
This includes cornerstone investment from the make-up brands co-founders, Tom Allsworth and Adam Minto, and from its largest shareholder, boohoo, now trading as Debenhams.
Between them the cornerstone investors hold just under 58% of Revolution Beauty stock, with boohoo having a 27% stake.
Mr Allsworth will step in as chief executive over the “coming days”, the firm said, with Colin Henry stepping down as interim chief executive at that point, while Mr Minto will also return to the business in a consulting capacity.
A barrel of Brent traded at 67.59 US dollars late Friday, up from 67.13 US dollars on Thursday. Gold pushed up to 3,375.22 US dollars an ounce against 3,343.46 US dollars.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Standard Chartered, up 57.0 pence at 1,417.0p, Persimmon, up 25.5p at 1,128.5p, International Consolidated Airlines, up 8.8p at 394.5p, Scottish Mortgage Trust, up 24.0p at 1,095.0p and Berkeley Group, up 80.0p at 3,792.0p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were British American Tobacco, down 78.0p at 4,315.0p, Coca-Cola Europacific down 120.0 pence at 6,710.0p, Coca-Cola HBC, down 52.0p at 3,892.0p, Tesco, down 5.2p at 426.3p and National Grid, down 10.5p at 1,049.0p.
Financial markets in London are closed on Monday for the August bank holiday.
Later in the week results are due from insurer Prudential and sports retailer JD Sports Fashion.
The global economic calendar on Monday has the German ifo business climate report and US new home sales figures.
Contributed by Alliance News.
Business
BP profits more than double as oil trading booms amid Iran war
BP has come under fire after revealing profits more than doubled in the first three months of the year, thanks to the soaring cost of crude caused by the Iran war.
Chief executive Meg O’Neill praised the quarter as sending the firm “in the right direction” and “strengthening the balance sheet” – but critics have labelled the energy giant’s revenues as “horrifying” as “millions suffer the fallout” from war.
The FTSE 100 firm revealed its preferred profit measure – underlying replacement cost profit – surged by over 130% to a better-than-expected $3.2bn (£2.4bn) in the first quarter, up from $1.38bn (£1.02bn) a year earlier and $1.54bn (£1.13bn) in the previous three months. Most analysts had expected first-quarter profits of $2.67bn (£1.97bn).
Campaigners accused the group of profiting at the expense of households, who have seen fuel prices rocket at the pumps and are set to see energy bills jump higher once more when the price cap is next updated on July 1.
The price of oil has risen from the mid-$60s range in February to over $100 now, spiking close to $120 several times during the course of the Iran war.
Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at campaigning organisation Global Witness, said: “It is horrifying to see BP’s profits grow as millions suffer the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran. Unfortunately we’ve been here before – when Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago we saw big oil firms make bumper profits from spiralling fuel costs.
“As oil prices drive up bills once again, it’s clear that fossil fuel companies don’t enhance affordability or energy security, they make life worse. They destroy the climate, push up the cost of living, and rake in billions in profit while innocent civilians die.
“It’s well overdue that we make oil companies pay for the damage their doing. If they broke it, they need to fix it. It’s clear they can afford to. BP profits, we all pay.”
Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, added: “Just as we saw in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fossil fuel giants are quids in when global instability drastically inflates fuel prices.
“But again, it’s ordinary people who pay the price when soaring energy prices threaten to plunge the UK into an even deeper cost-of-living crisis.”
The End Fuel Poverty Coalition called for a windfall tax on firms profiting from the Iran-related energy crisis.
The campaign group’s co-ordinator Simon Francis said: “These astronomical profits are a startling reminder that when conflict drives up the price of oil and gas, energy companies profit and households pay.”
BP’s new chief executive Meg O’Neill, who took over at the helm on April 1, said the group was ensuring fuel supplies are met across the UK.
She said: “The teams across BP are playing their part to keep oil, gas and refined products flowing during an incredibly challenging time – focused on maintaining safe, reliable and cost-efficient operations.”
She added: “We are working with customers and governments to get fuel where it’s needed, helping minimise disruption and the impact it can have on people’s lives.”
Ms O’Neill took over from Murray Auchincloss, who himself served only two years in the role after succeeeding Bernard Looney’s three-year tenure. Prior to the recent regular changes, Bob Dudley spent a full decade in the job up to 2020.
BP have struggled with strategy direction and the transition to clean energy, first doubling down on their green plan before an abrupt about-face turn.
In share price terms, the results saw BP rise 2.5 per cent in early trading on Tuesday, adding to a surge of more than 28 per cent in the past three months alone, as investors watched a soaring oil price and predicted the profits to come.
“In February, BP announced it was halting share buybacks as weak oil prices hurt profitability. How times change,” said Freetrade’s investment writer, Duncan Ferris.
“The firm has been among the best-performing supermajors since the escalation of conflict in Iran. Higher oil prices, and the opportunities they offer to the company’s traders, have breathed life into a stock battered by faltering low-carbon projects and investor unrest.”
Oil prices have raced higher since the US-Israel war on Iran started on February 28 and are now more than 60% up so far this year.
Brent crude reached close to 120 dollars a barrel at one stage and, despite falling back, is still above the 100 dollars level as peace talks falter and amid fears over a looming global energy supply crisis.
BP’s update showed its customers and products division – including its oil trading unit – reported profits of 2.5 billion (£1.84 billion), compared with 1.4 billion dollars (£1.03 billion) in the previous quarter and just 103 million dollars (£76.2 million) a year ago as traders were able to capitalise on highly volatile oil prices.
Additional reporting by PA
Business
Oil prices edge higher as Trump weighs Iran’s latest proposal to open Hormuz
Oil prices jumped on Tuesday as Donald Trump weighed Iran’s latest proposal to end the war.
The US president is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal, a US official said on Monday. Iranian sources disclosed that Tehran’s proposal avoided addressing its nuclear programme until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.
Trump’s displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries supply equal to about 20 per cent of global oil and gas consumption, and the US keeping in place its blockade of Iranian ports.
Brent crude rose to $108.13 per barrel, hovering near a three-week high, while US West Texas Intermediate went up to $96.48.
Both benchmarks are well above pre-war levels. Brent was trading at $72 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February.
Asian stocks were broadly subdued at the opening. While MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.12 per cent, hovering near the record high it touched on Monday, Nikkei fell 0.5 per cent.
The S&P 500 eked out modest gains on Monday and was on course for a nearly 10 per cent gain for April. US stock futures were 0.1 per cent higher in Asian hours.
Indian shares are set to open lower on Tuesday, with GIFT Nifty futures pointing to the benchmark Nifty 50 opening below Monday’s close of 24,092.70. Both Nifty and Sensex snapped a three-session losing run on Monday, led by a rebound in technology stocks, but the broader momentum remained constrained by unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Elevated oil prices are a particular headwind for India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, heightening inflation risks, pressuring economic growth and widening the country’s import bill.
Foreign portfolio investors offloaded domestic stocks worth Rs 11.5bn ($122m) on Monday, extending their selling streak to a sixth straight session.
Vessel crossings showed signs of recovery over the weekend, according to the maritime intelligence firm Windward, but analysts warned increased movement was yet to translate into a surge in oil and gas flows.
Iran reportedly offered to end its blockade of the waterway without addressing its nuclear programme, passing the proposal to Washington through Pakistani mediators. But Mr Trump has made ending Iran’s atomic programme a condition for any deal.
Central banks are also in focus this week, with the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all due to announce policy decisions. All are expected to hold rates steady, but markets will be watching closely for signals about how policymakers plan to respond to the inflationary pressure from the war.
“The BOJ is likely to stay highly sensitive to market volatility,” Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, told Reuters. “Our base case remains one single 25 basis point hike this year in July, but a June rate rise becomes more likely if the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed after mid-May.”
Business
Oil prices climbs as no end to Iran war shows no signs of ending – SUCH TV
Oil prices extended their gains on Tuesday as efforts to end the US-Iran war appear stalled, with the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway still mainly shut, keeping energy supplies from the key Middle East producing region out of the reach of global buyers.
US President Donald Trump is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal aimed at ending the war, a US official said on Monday.
Iranian sources disclosed on Monday that Tehran’s proposal avoided addressing its nuclear program until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.
Trump’s displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries supply equal to about 20% of global oil and gas consumption, and the US keeping in place its blockade of Iranian ports.
Brent crude futures for June climbed 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $108.68 a barrel, after gaining 2.8% in the previous session to its highest close since April 7. The contract is up for a seventh day.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June rose 58 cents, or 0.6%, to $96.96, after gaining 2.1% in the previous session.
An earlier round of negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed last week following failed face-to-face talks.
“For oil traders, it’s not the rhetoric that matters any more, but the actual physical flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and right now, that flow remains constrained,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, said in a note.
Razaqzada added that even if a resolution is reached, production outages and logistical challenges mean recovery could take months.
Ship-tracking data revealed significant disruptions in the region, with six Iranian oil tankers forced to turn back due to the US blockade.
However, a liquefied natural gas tanker managed by the United Arab Emirates’ Abu Dhabi National Oil Co did cross the Strait of Hormuz and appears to be near India, ship-tracking data showed on Monday.
Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, between 125 and 140 vessels transited the strait daily.
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