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Fed to cut rates in Dec, forecasts GSR; US job market weakness genuine

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Fed to cut rates in Dec, forecasts GSR; US job market weakness genuine



Goldman Sachs Research (GSR) recently forecast that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in December.

Seeing ‘genuine’ signs of weakness in the US job market, it does not expect the picture to change enough by the December meeting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to stop cutting.

Goldman Sachs Research recently forecast that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December.
Seeing ‘genuine’ signs of weakness in the US job market, it does not expect the picture to change enough by the December meeting for the Federal Open Market Committee to stop cutting.
It also expects two 25-basis-point cuts in March and June next year to a terminal rate of 3-3.25 per cent.

Though Fed chair Jerome Powell was more hawkish than expected during the central bank’s recent press conference, Goldman Sachs Research still expects policymakers to lower their target rate again this year.

It also expects two 25-basis-point cuts in March and June next year to a terminal rate of 3-3.25 per cent, it said in an insights article on its website.

The FOMC cut its target rate in October for the second time this year, lowering the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4 per cent. The Fed also said it would stop running off its $6.6-trillion balance sheet at the start of December. The principal payments of mortgage backed securities will only be reinvested into Treasury bills.

While most official economic data releases have been suspended by the government shutdown, Powell noted that the available official and alternative indicators suggest that inflation (net of tariff effects) is now close to the 2-per cent target and that the labour market has continued to cool gradually.

The FOMC’s summary of economic projections for September implied that most participants saw a December cut as the baseline, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The Fed’s past packages of risk management cuts (proactive rate cuts to guard against potential risks to the economy) also suggest that a third and final cut is the default.

Labor market data are “unlikely to send a convincingly reassuring message” by the time of the FOMC meeting in December, David Mericle, chief US economist, wrote in the team’s report.

Deferred resignations of government employees instigated by the Department of Government Efficiency are likely to generate a negative payrolls report in October and “weigh a bit on November,” Mericle added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



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War-linked energy shock pushing inflation higher in Europe: IMF expert

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War-linked energy shock pushing inflation higher in Europe: IMF expert



The energy shock that has hit Europe due to the Middle East conflict, though smaller than in 2022, is weighing on growth and pushing inflation higher, an expert at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently cautioned.

In a blog post, Alfred Kammer, director of the IMF’s European department, said his organisation sees growth slowing down in the continent. Initial data point already to weaker private investment and consumption.

The energy shock that has hit Europe due to the Middle East conflict, though smaller than in 2022, is weighing on growth and pushing inflation higher, an IMF expert recently cautioned.
IMF sees growth slowing down in the continent.
Initial data point already to weaker private investment and consumption.
Central banks must remain laser focused on keeping inflation expectations anchored, he wrote.

The outlook for euro area growth is projected at just 1.1 per cent in 2026, for the European Union it is 1.3 per cent; and this forecast comes with a high degree of uncertainty.

In a more severe scenario as described in the World Economic Outlook—a persistent supply shock compounded by tightening financial conditions—the EU could come close to recession with inflation approaching 5 per cent. No European country is spared, Kammer observed.

Policymakers face intense pressure—to act fast, visibly and for all, which results in policies that have more long-term downsides than short-term benefits, he wrote.

Targeted support is much more effective. Europe’s response to this shock should be shaped by two imperatives, he suggested. First, robust macroeconomic policy that is fit for a world with unpredictable and frequent shocks, and second, resilience built without wasting fiscal resources or getting in the way of markets.

The first imperative involves getting monetary and fiscal policy right. Central banks must remain laser focused on keeping inflation expectations anchored, the IMF expert wrote.

In the euro area, where inflation is close to target and medium-term expectations are broadly anchored, the European Central Bank has some scope to wait and observe the shock evolve before acting. IMF now expects a cumulative 50 basis point increase in the policy rate by the end of this year, maintaining a broadly neutral monetary stance in light of higher near-term inflation expectations, Kammer noted.

A rise in core inflation or increasing medium-term expectations would warrant a more restrictive stance, he wrote.

“Europe must reform under pressure. The current shock is not an argument for delay. It is all the more reason to push forward the reform agenda,” Kammer added.

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India, US to resume BTA talks today

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India, US to resume BTA talks today



India and the United States will today resume talks on the first phase of their bilateral trade agreement (BTA) in Washington, DC.

The text of the agreement was released on February 7.

India and the US will today resume talks on the first phase of their bilateral trade agreement in Washington, DC.
The three-day talks will discuss the situation that has evolved under the changed US tariff regime.
The two unilateral probes launched by the USTR against India may also be discussed at the meeting.
Darpan Jain, additional secretary in the department of commerce, is leading the Indian team.

Darpan Jain, additional secretary in the department of commerce, is leading the Indian team.

The three-day talks will discuss the situation that has evolved under the changed US tariff regime, according to Indian media reports.

Following the US Supreme Court decision against the sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on several countries, the US administration imposed a 10-per cent tariff on all countries beginning February 24 for 150 days.

This led to a meeting between chief negotiators of both sides scheduled in February getting postponed to this month.

The two unilateral investigations launched by the US Trade Representative (USTR) against India may also be discussed at the meeting. India has rejected allegations made by the USTR in these two probes under its Section 301 of Trade Law and has called for termination of the probes as the initiation notice has failed to provide cogent rationale to substantiate the claims.

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Germany’s BOSS secures landmark Australian Open partnership

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Germany’s BOSS secures landmark Australian Open partnership



BOSS enters a new era in sport and culture, announcing a landmark partnership as the Official Lifestyle Outfitter of the Australian Open from 2027. From first serve to championship point, the brand will present elevated style on and off the court, combining sharp tailoring, sports-inspired looks, and standout hospitality moments – all on one of the world’s most prestigious sporting stages.

The partnership is rooted in a shared mindset: ambition, world-class performance, global relevance, and a bold confidence that defines both BOSS and the Australian Open. As a cornerstone of BOSS’s cultural strategy, the collaboration creates a powerful platform to connect with fans at scale, unlock new audiences, and showcase the full world of BOSS through its collections, ambassadors, and experiences.

BOSS will become Official Lifestyle Outfitter of the Australian Open from 2027, marking a key step in its sport and culture strategy.
The brand will dress up to 4,000 staff and elevate on- and off-court style through tailored looks, activations and merchandise, strengthening its global presence in tennis while redefining the tournament’s visual identity.

“We are absolutely excited to partner with the Australian Open, which is one of the most dynamic and globally followed sporting events worldwide,” stated Daniel Grieder, CEO of HUGO BOSS. “This collaboration is a natural fit for us, as it brings together two brands that share the same commitment to excellence, innovation, and creating extraordinary experiences. Tennis is part of BOSS’s DNA. The partnership therefore

marks an important step in our strategy to further drive the brand’s positioning at the intersection of sport, lifestyle, and global fan engagement.”

“The Australian Open has always been about more than just great tennis – it’s about atmosphere, innovation, and setting the benchmark for major sporting events worldwide,” Tennis Australia CEO Craig Tiley said. “BOSS is a global brand with impeccable credentials in sport and style, and together we will enhance how our tournament looks, feels, and connects with fans from around the world.”

In its new role as the tournament’s Official Lifestyle Outfitter, BOSS is set to transform the visual identity of the Australian Open like never before. Dressing up to 4,000 staff, officials, umpires, and ball kids, BOSS will make an unmistakable impact, setting its signature confident style from the very first moment. The result is a bold step change: a unified, elevated, and distinctly modern aesthetic that will be visible across every corner of Melbourne Park. A curated palette of refined shades, subtle nods to the brand’s tailoring expertise, and easy-wear silhouettes engineered for the Melbourne heat come together to signal a new era in tournament style – perfectly in tune with the fast-paced, high-energy spirit of the event.

BOSS branding will also be displayed around the venue, including inside the iconic Rod Laver Arena. Beyond the tournament’s courts, the collaboration will extend to exclusive replica teamwear, merchandise, and off-court capsules. Dedicated pop-up stores, immersive on-site fan activations, an elevated guest experience, and further special events will bring the BOSS attitude to every part of “The Happy Slam.” Online and in store, impactful storytelling and curated initiatives will also share the sunshine spirit of Melbourne with tennis fans around the globe.

In a powerful opening serve that ignites excitement and sets the tone for what’s to come, the brand has created bold visuals to accompany today’s announcement. Bridging the worlds of fashion and sport, the imagery reimagines tennis balls in tactile fabrics – from rich wool to soft alpaca – as a nod to BOSS’s roots in craft and tailoring.

The brand’s history in tennis dates back to the 1980s, when it embarked on a 15-year-long sponsorship of the Davis Cup, the world’s largest international team competition in men’s tennis. Most recently, BOSS has welcomed star players Taylor Fritz and Matteo Berrettini, as well as emerging talents Noma Noha Akugue and Ella Seidel, as brand ambassadors, and since 2022 has served as title sponsor of popular ATP 250 tournament the BOSS OPEN in Stuttgart. Through the Australian Open partnership, BOSS is cementing its presence in tennis at one of the world’s most prestigious tournaments and propelling its position as a leading global style authority at the intersection of sport and culture.

Note: The headline, insights, and image of this press release may have been refined by the Fibre2Fashion staff; the rest of the content remains unchanged.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (JP)



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