US Vice President JD Vance said on Friday he was hopeful of a “positive” outcome as he departed Washington to lead American negotiations with Iran in Pakistan. “We’re going to try to have a positive negotiation,” Vance told reporters before boarding his flight at Joint Base Andrews.

“If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand. If they’re going to try to play us, then they’re going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive.”

Earlier, the White House said that Vance will head the US delegation in talks beginning Saturday in Islamabad, acting on directives from President Donald Trump.

The talks are seen as a critical step towards preventing renewed conflict after weeks of escalating hostilities.

According to officials, the US delegation will also include senior figures such as envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, underlining the importance Washington attaches to the negotiations.

Pakistan is hosting the dialogue as part of its broader mediation effort, having played a key role in brokering a temporary ceasefire between the two sides. The talks are widely viewed as high-stakes, with the outcome likely to shape regional stability and global energy markets.

Vance, speaking before departure, expressed optimism about the negotiations, saying the United States was seeking “constructive engagement” and remained hopeful of positive outcomes.

He added that clear guidance had been provided by President Donald Trump for the talks.

Diplomatic sources say the negotiations will address key issues, including ceasefire compliance, regional security concerns, and Iran’s nuclear programme, though significant differences remain between the parties.

Analysts note that Pakistan’s role has evolved into that of an active mediator, bringing both sides to the table despite deep mistrust.

However, they caution that the process remains fragile, with risks of derailment from regional actors and unresolved disputes.

The Islamabad talks mark one of the most significant direct engagements between the United States and Iran in decades, raising cautious hopes for a broader de-escalation in the region.

• Taiwan opposition leader in China for ‘peace’ mission.
• Cheng meets China’s Xi at Great Hall of the People.
• Cheng is party’s first leader to visit China in a decade.
  

China’s President Xi Jinping met Taiwan’s opposition party leader Cheng Li-wun in Beijing on Friday, telling the visiting delegation he had “full confidence” that Taiwanese and Chinese people would be united.

Kuomintang (KMT) chairwoman Cheng is the party’s first leader to visit China in a decade.

Xi told Cheng, as the two met on Friday, that “the general trend of compatriots on both sides of the Strait getting closer, edging nearer and becoming united will not change”.

“This is an inevitable part of history. We have full confidence in this,” Xi said during the talks carried by Taiwanese media.

He also said China was willing to strengthen dialogue with groups in Taiwan, including the KMT, on the “common political foundation of… opposing Taiwan independence”.

Earlier, she told Xi that the Taiwan Strait would “no longer be a focal point of potential conflict” and “both sides should transcend political confrontation”.

She also said Xi had responded “positively” to her proposal that the sides work toward Taiwan participating in international organisations such as Interpol and regional trade agreements.

Taiwanese lawmakers have been at loggerheads over the government’s plan to spend NT$1.25 trillion ($39 billion) on defence, which has been stalled for months in parliament, controlled by opposition parties including the KMT.

Defence spending

Cheng’s trip comes a month before US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing for a summit with Xi.

The United States has been piling pressure on Taiwanese opposition lawmakers to back a proposal for defence purchases, including US weapons.

Cheng has railed against the government´s proposal, insisting “Taiwan isn’t an ATM” and instead backing a KMT plan to allocate NT$380 billion ($12 billion) for US weapons with the option for more acquisitions.

While KMT party members regularly fly to China for exchanges with officials, its last leader to visit was Hung Hsiu-chu in 2016.

Cross-strait relations have worsened in particular since the election of Tsai´s successor, Lai Ching-te, who Beijing considers a separatist.

Cheng landed in Shanghai on Tuesday evening, saying shortly after her arrival that “the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not doomed to war, as the international community has feared”.

The KMT leader also travelled to the eastern city of Nanjing, where she visited the mausoleum of revolutionary leader Sun Yat-sen, one of the few Chinese historical figures revered in both Beijing and Taipei.

TEXAS: As diplomatic activity intensifies ahead of anticipated peace talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, a parallel surge is unfolding far from negotiating tables in the fast-moving world of online prediction markets, where hundreds of millions of dollars are being wagered on the outcome of the conflict.

On platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, traders are placing real-money bets on whether the fragile ceasefire will hold, whether negotiations will succeed, and how the broader confrontation might evolve. The scale of activity reflects a global consensus: the situation is both highly consequential and deeply uncertain.

Available data suggests that more than $300 million has been traded across Iran-related markets, transactions often described as “trading” rather than betting, with over $250 million concentrated in a single market tied to the timing and nature of a ceasefire.

Participants are effectively pricing probabilities: Will the Islamabad talks yield a breakthrough, or will tensions reignite?

Market sentiment, as reflected in these trades, remains cautious. The likelihood of a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement is currently viewed as limited, with implied probabilities ranging between 20% and 40%.

By contrast, a temporary or partial outcome such as an extension of the ceasefire or a limited diplomatic understanding is seen as more plausible, with estimates exceeding 50%.

At the same time, positions anticipating renewed escalation or a breakdown of the ceasefire hover between 30% and 50%, underscoring a widespread lack of confidence in long-term stability.

In some cases, traders have already reaped substantial gains. According to market reports, several participants earned more than $600,000 by correctly anticipating the ceasefire announcement before it became public, raising questions in some quarters about the possibility of insider information.

Analysts note that prediction markets have evolved beyond speculative entertainment into a serious barometer of geopolitical sentiment, where financial exposure intersects with information, analysis, and risk.

Meanwhile, international media outlets are describing the Islamabad talks as a “fragile but pivotal moment”. Yet there is broad agreement among analysts that the ceasefire itself remains tenuous, with core disputes unresolved.

Iran’s nuclear programme, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing hostilities in Lebanon continue to cast a long shadow over any diplomatic progress.

For Pakistan, the stakes are particularly high. Islamabad’s role as a mediator could enhance its diplomatic standing, but the risks are equally significant. Should the talks fail, the economic and security repercussions — especially through energy markets and regional instability are likely to be felt well beyond the negotiating room.

Experts caution that while financial wagering on geopolitical crises is not new, the scale of activity surrounding the US-Iran confrontation marks a turning point. Modern conflicts, they argue, are no longer confined to battlefields. Their impact ripples through financial systems, digital platforms, and global public opinion alike.

As attention turns to Islamabad, where negotiations are set to begin within hours, the outcome remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the world is watching and, in many cases, quite literally investing in what comes next.