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Fix your mortgage now or face higher payments, experts warn
Mortgage costs are rising and homeowners who need to renew a fixed rate deal should move quickly, experts have warned.
The Bank of England is likely to hold rates when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, rather than cut them as had been widely anticipated before the Middle East crisis.
That means further pressure on mortgage deals as the best offers get pulled from the market. The so-called “swap rates”, which reflect the markets view of which way borrowing costs will go, are on the rise.
Since the outbreak of the Iran war, mortgages at less than 4 per cent, common not so long ago, have met a rapid demise.
Elliot Nathan, partner at mortgage broker Eddge, says: “As of today, its easier to name which banks haven’t increased rates in the past few days.
“I suspect with the uncertainty we shall continue to see SWAPs rise which in turn will lead to lenders making further increases. I would strongly recommend anyone thinking of securing a fixed rate for a remortgage which is due to expire this year, to move quickly.”
None of the big lenders are offering a fixed rate below 4 per cent at the moment.
All of the biggest banks – namely Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest and Santander – have increased rates since the start of March. Building societies have done the same. Nationwide rates on some fixed rate deals go up by 0.35% from Tuesday March 17.
While recent mortgage costs are up, they are still better than a year ago, before the Bank of England cut rates. Sadly for the UK, borrowing costs are being driven by world events rather than UK government policy, which may limit what politicians are able to do in mitigation, say brokers.
Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said: “Borrowers looking for the lowest fixed rates will be disappointed to see the demise of sub-4 per cent mortgages, but they are not sustainable with swap rates increasing.
“Lenders look at margins very carefully, so it would be unwise to price their deals too low, if the expectations are for interest rates to rise, even if over the short-term.”
She added: “The mortgage market needs stability, and really, borrowing costs are lower than in recent years, and we have had sub-4 per cent deals on the shelves for over a year (since February 2025). While many of the biggest lenders no longer offer a sub-4 per cent fixed deal, it is a cautious decision.
“Mortgage rates are rising due to global pressures, not UK fiscal policy, so while not ideal, rate increases are not mirroring the ‘mini-Budget’ fiasco in 2022.”
Peter Stimson, director of mortgages at MQube, said: “Since the start of the Iran war, swaps, which fixed rate mortgage pricing is based off, have risen around 0.60% and all of this has essentially now been passed on to mortgage customers with all the big lenders now having repriced at least twice, in the form of higher mortgage rates.”
This means a first time buyer wishing to take out a 90 per cent LTV mortgage is now paying around 4.65 per cent for a 2-year fixed rate (£999 fee) and around 4.90 per cent for a 5-year deal (£999 fee).
Mr Stimson added: “However, rates are changing rapidly and the longer the war continues the more we can expect rates to continue their upward trajectory. How bad could this get? If this is protracted and we get oil approaching $150 a barrel, we may see yet another interest rate rise being priced into the swap curve by the market and another jump in mortgage rates. Hopefully, there is resolution before then.”
Oil on Tuesday was trading at $103 a barrel.
Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said: “The longer the oil price stays above $100 per barrel, the louder the alarm bells for the market over inflation risks. Iran’s continued attacks on regional energy infrastructure are helping to keep crude at elevated levels.”
Some say the issue for mortgage prices is a lack of new housing.
Mary-Lou Press, President of NAEA Propertymark (National Association of Estate Agents), said: “The loss of sub-4 per cent fixed rate mortgages will be disappointing for many buyers, particularly first-time buyers already facing affordability pressures.
“This shift highlights how sensitive mortgage rates are to wider economic uncertainty, making it harder for people to plan and potentially slowing activity across the housing market.
“Even small increases in rates can significantly impact borrowing capacity and monthly costs, reinforcing the need for stability and confidence.”
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“Overall, UK politics is a mess, there are already signs that foreign buyers are ditching the gilt market. If there is a major rout in the pound and/or gilts in the coming days, prospective candidates may need to assess whether now was a wise time to make a move against the PM,” she said.
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Trump Might Welcome Chinese Investment, but America Is Wary
A hallmark of President Trump’s second term has been his penchant for negotiating economic deals with countries that pledge to invest trillions of dollars in the United States
“It’s now pouring in from all parts of the world,” Mr. Trump said during a speech last fall in which he boasted of nearly $20 trillion of foreign investment.
The meetings this week between Mr. Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing are expected to include talks over purchases of American farm products and planes and the possibility of expanding access for American companies into China’s vast consumer market.
There has also been speculation that Mr. Trump and his advisers are seeking a major investment from China. But such a pledge could be complicated by deep distrust in the United States toward Chinese firms, which many workers blame for the hollowing out of American manufacturing.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the challenge in an interview on CNBC on Thursday, explaining that the United States and China were working to develop an investment board that would determine what sectors were acceptable for Chinese investment. That would essentially provide China with guidance on how to invest in the United States without its transactions being blocked by the Committee on Foreign Investment, an interagency group that reviews foreign investment and is led by Mr. Bessent.
“Look, there are plenty of things that the Chinese could invest in in the U.S.,” said Mr. Bessent, who is in Beijing with Mr. Trump.
Chinese investment in the United States has declined sharply in recent years amid tougher investment screening standards nationally and at the state level.
That sentiment could ultimately clash with Mr. Trump’s transactional instincts and his desire to return home with a big-ticket win.
“If Trump were to be committed to a major investment deal with China, there’s still a challenge of implementation,” said Kyle Jaros, an expert on U.S.-China ties at the University of Notre Dame. “It would take real follow-through to overcome a lot of the political and regulatory barriers that are in place right now.”
According to a report published last month by the research firm Rhodium Group, less than $3 billion of Chinese investment in the United States was announced in 2025. That was the lowest on record, with investment peaking at around $45 billion in 2016.
The United States has imposed tight restrictions on Chinese investment out of national security concerns, making it difficult for Chinese firms to build factories near military facilities. Some states also have enacted restrictions on Chinese purchases of real estate and farmland.
China’s clean energy technology, such as electric vehicles and batteries, has also faced challenges in the United States because of political backlash. There was a surge of Chinese investment in those sectors after clean energy and tax legislation was passed under the Biden administration in 2022, but according to Rhodium, more than half of those investments have been canceled, paused or delayed.
A $2.4 billion electric vehicle battery factory that the Chinese company Gotion was building in Michigan was canceled last year after the community there protested and mounted legal challenges to stop the project.
Other types of Chinese investment have also stirred controversy. That includes the recent purchase by Nongfu Spring, a Chinese bottled water company, of a warehouse in New Hampshire that it wants to turn into a bottling facility. The purchase was reviewed last year by the state’s attorney general.
After the inquiry found that there was no wrongdoing associated with the transaction, Gov. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire issued executive orders to block China, Russia and Iran from getting access to data or purchasing land or property in the state. “Foreign adversaries like China should not be doing business in New Hampshire,” said Ms. Ayotte, a Republican.
There continues to be deep skepticism within the U.S. automobile industry about competition from China. Last month, a group of American steel associations sent a letter to top Trump administration officials urging them to keep Chinese car manufacturers out of the United States.
“As representatives of our nation’s manufacturing sector, we urge you to ensure American competitiveness by not surrendering access to the U.S. auto market to the Chinese Communist Party,” they wrote. “Additionally, allowing Chinese companies and Chinese autos into the U.S. would create consequential, unacceptable national security risks.”
Agriculture also remains a contentious issue. The chairman of the House select committee on China, Representative John Moolenaar, a Republican from Michigan, introduced new legislation this month that would ban China from acquiring U.S. farmland.
“Food security is national security, and we cannot allow foreign adversaries like China to buy up American farmland near our most sensitive military and critical infrastructure sites,” Mr. Moolenaar said.
The bipartisan bill would create a requirement for the federal government to review Chinese deals involving ports and telecommunications infrastructure. It would also apply to purchases made by investors from Russia, Iran and North Korea
Michael Pillsbury, a China scholar who has served as an outside adviser to the Trump administration, said that the president’s advisers were concerned about Chinese investments in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, aerospace and critical minerals. It has been a challenge, he said, to come up with a “white list” of sectors that could be considered safe.
“The red lines have moved back and forth as the nature of technology has changed,” Mr. Pillsbury said.
He added that while Mr. Trump is eager to announce a $1 trillion Chinese investment pledge, he is mindful not to incite political backlash.
“I think there’s been an effort by the administration to avoid getting into a fight with the China hawks,” Mr. Pillsbury added.
Ahead of Mr. Trump’s trip to China, a White House official downplayed the idea that the administration was seeking to create a new $1 trillion Chinese investment program. The White House continues to be focused on pushing China to increase its purchases of American farm goods, which it boycotted for much of last year when trade tensions flared.
Despite the anticipation of a Chinese investment pledge, the details and follow-through will be important.
While Mr. Trump has said that foreign investments have topped $20 trillion, according to the White House’s own investment tracker, U.S. and foreign investment pledges made during Mr. Trump’s second term total $10.6 trillion. Foreign leaders appear to have learned that they can win favor with Mr. Trump by promising whopping investment pledges that they might not fulfill.
“The devil is in the details,” said Philip Ludvigson, a partner in King & Spalding who specializes in national security risks and foreign investment, “about not only where the investment goes but also whether it happens at all.”
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