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Fuel hike raises policy questions | The Express Tribune

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Fuel hike raises policy questions | The Express Tribune



LAHORE:

The government’s decision to raise petroleum prices by an unprecedented margin has triggered fresh concerns over policy consistency as officials appear to have reversed their earlier stance of shielding consumers from global oil volatility within a matter of days.

Petrol prices have surged by Rs137 per litre to Rs458 while high-speed diesel has climbed by Rs185 to Rs520 per litre, marking one of the sharpest increases in the country’s history. The move comes despite recent assurances from policymakers that efforts were underway to absorb international price pressures and avoid passing the full burden onto consumers.

The abrupt shift has raised questions in economic circles about what forced the government into such a significant policy reversal and whether Pakistan has the fiscal space to manage external shocks in an increasingly volatile global environment.

Officials had earlier indicated that the government was exploring options, including engaging with the International Monetary Fund, to seek flexibility in adjusting the petroleum levy so that domestic prices could be moderated. However, the latest increase suggests that either those efforts did not materialise in time or the scale of the external shock proved too large to contain.

Analysts say the rapid escalation in global oil prices, driven by intensifying tensions linked to the Iran-Israel conflict and fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has significantly altered the government’s calculations. With crude markets swinging sharply this week and standing at around $112 per barrel, maintaining artificially low domestic prices may have risked widening fiscal imbalances and putting additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

“The government was clearly trying to manage expectations and avoid panic but the reality of global markets caught up faster than anticipated,” said an official of the Ministry of Petroleum. “At this level of price increase, it becomes less about choice and more about compulsion.”

Pakistan’s heavy reliance on imported fuel makes it particularly vulnerable to such shocks. Any sustained increase in global oil prices directly impacts the import bill, weakens the currency and fuels inflation across sectors ranging from transport to food and manufacturing. In this context, absorbing the full impact through subsidies or reduced taxation becomes increasingly difficult, especially under the constraints of ongoing fiscal consolidation.

The latest development has also brought into focus the broader question of policy credibility. Frequent shifts in pricing decisions and public messaging can undermine market confidence and make it harder for businesses and consumers to plan ahead.

A senior official in the energy sector, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that while efforts were made to cushion the impact, the pace of change in international markets left limited room to manoeuvre. “When prices move this quickly, the system does not have the capacity to respond smoothly. There was a ray of hope before President Trump’s last speech to the US audience, as crude was hovering around $100 per barrel at that time, but after the speech oil prices skyrocketed once again. There are always trade-offs between fiscal stability and public relief,” the official said.

Business leaders, on the other hand, warn that such unpredictability adds another layer of uncertainty to an already challenging economic environment. Industries dependent on fuel for transportation and production now face a sudden surge in input costs, which is likely to be passed on to consumers in the coming weeks.

Pakistan Business Forum Chief Organiser Ahmad Jawad said the sharp spike in fuel prices has intensified pressure on key sectors, particularly agriculture, where higher diesel costs are making crop sowing increasingly unviable. He noted that the pace of recent hikes, coupled with higher petroleum levies, risks triggering a fresh wave of inflation and placing an unsustainable burden on both businesses and consumers already operating under tight financial conditions.

The federal government, which claims that it has provided a Rs129 billion subsidy on fuel, is now seeking help from provinces to share this burden. Punjab and Sindh have moved forward with some measures, like some limited petrol subsidy for bikes and free public transport, but the cascading effects would be much higher.

The outcome of this crisis is obvious and that is Pakistan’s limited ability to insulate its economy from global energy shocks with a dilemma to maintain fiscal discipline and meet external financing requirements tied to IMF programmes.

The government’s room for manoeuvring is likely to remain constrained. Any further escalation in the Middle East could push prices even higher, forcing policymakers into another difficult round of decisions. Nevertheless, the record-breaking fuel hike stands as a stark reminder of how quickly policy positions can shift under external pressure and how exposed Pakistan’s economy remains to forces beyond its control.



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Oil prices slide on hopes of US-Iran peace deal

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Oil prices slide on hopes of US-Iran peace deal



Trump said on Saturday that an agreement would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, without giving further details.



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Shop numbers return to growth after years of decline, say experts

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Shop numbers return to growth after years of decline, say experts


UK high streets and shopping destinations are showing signs of recovery as more than 13 retail stores opened each week over the past year, according to new figures.

However, England and Wales have still seen more than 6,000 retail premises vanish from local communities over the past five years.

Analysis of Valuation Office Agency data by tax firm Ryan, found that there were 507,810 retail premises across England and Wales at the end of 2025.

It said the figures showed that a recent contraction across the sector has appeared to stabilise, with a 723 net increase in the number of retail stores compared with a year earlier.

Property numbers increased across every region of England and Wales, with the exception of the North West, which saw a decline of 41.

It suggests that parts of the sector are now beginning to rebalance following significant structural contraction seen since the pandemic.

The creation of new retail units also comes as many retail real estate firms, such as Hammerson, have turned empty large units, often former department stores, into a greater number of smaller units.

Other retail groups, such as John Lewis, have moved away from ambitions to transform some retail property for other uses such as rental accommodation.

Nevertheless, the retail sector is still facing pressure from higher business rates for many firms, increased labour costs and concerns over consumer sentiment.

The data also shows that there has also been significant decline over the past few years, with a net reduction of 6,045 retail properties since the end of 2020.

London recorded the largest five-year regional reduction, with 1,266 retail premises disappearing over the period, followed by the South East (-1,191), North West (-719) and North East (-672).

The figures show retail premises which have permanently disappeared from communities altogether, having either been demolished or converted for alternative use.

The figures come as Ryan’s 2026 annual business rates review highlighted that the retail sector saw a 9.3% increase in rateable values at the 2026 business rates revaluation despite the major shift in the retail landscape since the pandemic.

The retail sector is still facing pressure from higher business rates for many firms, increased labour costs and concerns over consumer sentiment (Louisa Collins-Marsh/PA) (PA Archive)

Alex Probyn, practice leader for Europe and Asia-Pacific property tax at Ryan, said: “The pandemic accelerated structural changes that were already emerging across the retail sector, including changing consumer behaviour, hybrid working patterns and a reduced reliance on traditional retail floorspace in many locations.

“Many locations were arguably over-retailed before Covid and high streets have evolved towards more mixed-use environments, with retail space being rebalanced alongside growing demand for residential, leisure, hospitality and service-led uses.

“The revaluation outcome does suggest a large proportion of retail premises have seen bigger increases in their assessments than underlying market conditions and rental evidence would have led occupiers to expect.

“Retailers should therefore carefully review and, where appropriate, challenge their assessments.”



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Indians cut overseas travel spending to $1.9 billion in March: RBI

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Indians cut overseas travel spending to .9 billion in March: RBI


Indians sharply cut back on overseas travel spending in March, with remittances for foreign trips dropping by more than $212 million from the previous month, according to Reserve Bank of India data. The fall in outbound travel expenditure came amid rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict and persistent pressure on rupee, even as travel remained the single largest component of outward remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS).In March, travel-related remittances fell to $1.09 billion from $1.3 billion in February and $1.65 billion in January. The decline came at a time when the West Asia conflict pushed oil prices higher and weakened rupee to record lows. Amid the situation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to cut down on foreign travel and adopt measures such as carpooling. Lower overseas travel spending could reduce foreign exchange outflows and help ease pressure on rupee.According to the RBI’s data on outward remittances by resident individuals, travel continued to account for the largest share of money sent abroad under the LRS in March. Total remittances during the month stood at $2.59 billion.The RBI tracks overseas spending across categories including travel, studies abroad, maintenance of close relatives, overseas investments, and property purchases. Under the LRS framework, resident individuals, including minors, can remit up to $250,000 in a financial year for permitted current or capital account transactions.Within the travel segment, the biggest component remained the ‘other travel’ category, which covers holiday spending and international credit card settlements. Indians spent $623.05 million under this category in March, accounting for nearly 57 per cent of total travel-related remittances during the month.Expenditure linked to education travel, including hostel and fee payments, stood at $450.16 million. Business travel, pilgrimage, and overseas medical treatment together accounted for $21.39 million.The data also showed a rise in remittances meant for the maintenance of close relatives abroad. Such transfers increased to $389.78 million in March from $266.18 million in February.At the same time, spending under the ‘studies abroad’ category declined. This category includes payments made for educational services accessed remotely without travelling overseas, such as correspondence courses. Remittances under this head stood at $151.71 million in March, compared to $175.68 million in February and $267.42 million in January.For the financial year 2024-25, Indians remitted a total of $29.56 billion under the LRS. Travel made up the largest portion of this amount at $16.96 billion.The RBI figures further showed that investments by Indians in overseas equity and debt instruments rose significantly to $440.22 million in March from $265.99 million in February.Meanwhile, outward remittances for the purchase of immovable property overseas declined to $38.68 million in March, down from $51.36 million a month earlier.



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