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Gilt sell off deepens after worse than expected public finance data

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Gilt sell off deepens after worse than expected public finance data



Government borrowing costs have hit their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis as worse-than-expected public finance data compounded a gilt sell-off on worries over soaring inflation and rising interest rates.

Yields on 10-year UK government bonds, also known as gilts, surged above 4.9% at one stage on Friday, up from 4.78% on Thursday and hitting an 18-year high.

Two-year gilts were also up another 11 percentage points at 4.52% on Friday after reaching their highest since January 2025 on Thursday in the worst one-day sell off for the short-dated bonds since the mini-budget market chaos in 2022.

Yields move inversely to prices, meaning they rise as prices fall.

It comes after official figures showed Government borrowing last month jumped unexpectedly to the second highest February level since records began, adding to worries over an impending crisis for the public finances from the Iran war and surging inflation.

The Bank of England held interest rates on Thursday and warned over sharply higher inflation that raised the spectre of possible rate hikes if the war and energy price shock is prolonged.

This had already sent gilt yields racing higher, with the latest public finance statistics adding to the woes and compounding the headache for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as it sent borrowing costs rising.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said public sector borrowing stood at £14.3 billion in February, £2.2 billion higher than a year ago and nearly double the £7.4 billion forecast by the UK’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), in November last year.

It defied expectations for a fall, with most economists expecting borrowing of £8.8 billion for February.

Borrowing for the 11 months of the financial year to March so far stood at £125.9 billion, £11.9 billion less than in the same period the previous year and £1.9 billion below the OBR’s November forecast of £127.8 billion.

Experts cautioned the rising gilts yields will leave Ms Reeves will little firepower to protect households from the impending energy bill shock caused by the war.

Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “We estimate that increases in gilt yields will cut the Chancellor’s headroom by £7.1 billion in 2030/31, if sustained at current levels.”

“The Chancellor will again have to make difficult decisions in the autumn budget unless hostilities end quickly and energy prices subside,” he warned.

Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy, said public finances would be hit hard if the Iran war is prolonged.

He said: “The shock to energy prices creates a double squeeze for the public finances if it persists.

“Higher oil and gas prices would lift North Sea revenues, and stronger inflation could boost receipts from VAT and frozen tax allowances, but those gains would likely be outweighed by the damage to tax revenues from weaker growth and higher public spending on welfare, debt interest costs, and pressure for fiscal support for households and energy-intensive businesses.”

The data showed Government borrowing in February was pushed up by £13 billion of debt interest payments – a record February high and £5.5 billion up on a year ago – due to increases in Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation impacting index-linked gilts and the timing of debt interest payments from January that fell into last month.

James Murray, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said: “Because of the choices we made before the conflict in the Middle East began, we are better prepared for a more volatile world.

“We doubled our headroom and borrowing was forecast to be lower than the G7 average.”

But shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “Labour have raised taxes by £66 billion but still can’t control borrowing.”



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Trump Might Welcome Chinese Investment, but America Is Wary

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Trump Might Welcome Chinese Investment, but America Is Wary


A hallmark of President Trump’s second term has been his penchant for negotiating economic deals with countries that pledge to invest trillions of dollars in the United States

“It’s now pouring in from all parts of the world,” Mr. Trump said during a speech last fall in which he boasted of nearly $20 trillion of foreign investment.

The meetings this week between Mr. Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing are expected to include talks over purchases of American farm products and planes and the possibility of expanding access for American companies into China’s vast consumer market.

There has also been speculation that Mr. Trump and his advisers are seeking a major investment from China. But such a pledge could be complicated by deep distrust in the United States toward Chinese firms, which many workers blame for the hollowing out of American manufacturing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the challenge in an interview on CNBC on Thursday, explaining that the United States and China were working to develop an investment board that would determine what sectors were acceptable for Chinese investment. That would essentially provide China with guidance on how to invest in the United States without its transactions being blocked by the Committee on Foreign Investment, an interagency group that reviews foreign investment and is led by Mr. Bessent.

“Look, there are plenty of things that the Chinese could invest in in the U.S.,” said Mr. Bessent, who is in Beijing with Mr. Trump.

Chinese investment in the United States has declined sharply in recent years amid tougher investment screening standards nationally and at the state level.

That sentiment could ultimately clash with Mr. Trump’s transactional instincts and his desire to return home with a big-ticket win.

“If Trump were to be committed to a major investment deal with China, there’s still a challenge of implementation,” said Kyle Jaros, an expert on U.S.-China ties at the University of Notre Dame. “It would take real follow-through to overcome a lot of the political and regulatory barriers that are in place right now.”

According to a report published last month by the research firm Rhodium Group, less than $3 billion of Chinese investment in the United States was announced in 2025. That was the lowest on record, with investment peaking at around $45 billion in 2016.

The United States has imposed tight restrictions on Chinese investment out of national security concerns, making it difficult for Chinese firms to build factories near military facilities. Some states also have enacted restrictions on Chinese purchases of real estate and farmland.

China’s clean energy technology, such as electric vehicles and batteries, has also faced challenges in the United States because of political backlash. There was a surge of Chinese investment in those sectors after clean energy and tax legislation was passed under the Biden administration in 2022, but according to Rhodium, more than half of those investments have been canceled, paused or delayed.

A $2.4 billion electric vehicle battery factory that the Chinese company Gotion was building in Michigan was canceled last year after the community there protested and mounted legal challenges to stop the project.

Other types of Chinese investment have also stirred controversy. That includes the recent purchase by Nongfu Spring, a Chinese bottled water company, of a warehouse in New Hampshire that it wants to turn into a bottling facility. The purchase was reviewed last year by the state’s attorney general.

After the inquiry found that there was no wrongdoing associated with the transaction, Gov. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire issued executive orders to block China, Russia and Iran from getting access to data or purchasing land or property in the state. “Foreign adversaries like China should not be doing business in New Hampshire,” said Ms. Ayotte, a Republican.

There continues to be deep skepticism within the U.S. automobile industry about competition from China. Last month, a group of American steel associations sent a letter to top Trump administration officials urging them to keep Chinese car manufacturers out of the United States.

“As representatives of our nation’s manufacturing sector, we urge you to ensure American competitiveness by not surrendering access to the U.S. auto market to the Chinese Communist Party,” they wrote. “Additionally, allowing Chinese companies and Chinese autos into the U.S. would create consequential, unacceptable national security risks.”

Agriculture also remains a contentious issue. The chairman of the House select committee on China, Representative John Moolenaar, a Republican from Michigan, introduced new legislation this month that would ban China from acquiring U.S. farmland.

“Food security is national security, and we cannot allow foreign adversaries like China to buy up American farmland near our most sensitive military and critical infrastructure sites,” Mr. Moolenaar said.

The bipartisan bill would create a requirement for the federal government to review Chinese deals involving ports and telecommunications infrastructure. It would also apply to purchases made by investors from Russia, Iran and North Korea

Michael Pillsbury, a China scholar who has served as an outside adviser to the Trump administration, said that the president’s advisers were concerned about Chinese investments in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, aerospace and critical minerals. It has been a challenge, he said, to come up with a “white list” of sectors that could be considered safe.

“The red lines have moved back and forth as the nature of technology has changed,” Mr. Pillsbury said.

He added that while Mr. Trump is eager to announce a $1 trillion Chinese investment pledge, he is mindful not to incite political backlash.

“I think there’s been an effort by the administration to avoid getting into a fight with the China hawks,” Mr. Pillsbury added.

Ahead of Mr. Trump’s trip to China, a White House official downplayed the idea that the administration was seeking to create a new $1 trillion Chinese investment program. The White House continues to be focused on pushing China to increase its purchases of American farm goods, which it boycotted for much of last year when trade tensions flared.

Despite the anticipation of a Chinese investment pledge, the details and follow-through will be important.

While Mr. Trump has said that foreign investments have topped $20 trillion, according to the White House’s own investment tracker, U.S. and foreign investment pledges made during Mr. Trump’s second term total $10.6 trillion. Foreign leaders appear to have learned that they can win favor with Mr. Trump by promising whopping investment pledges that they might not fulfill.

“The devil is in the details,” said Philip Ludvigson, a partner in King & Spalding who specializes in national security risks and foreign investment, “about not only where the investment goes but also whether it happens at all.”



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‘Cheaper’ funeral option left Somerset man unable to say goodbye

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‘Cheaper’ funeral option left Somerset man unable to say goodbye



Ed Cullen says his mum had an unattended cremation which saved money but was “devastating” for him.



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Trump brought top CEOs to Beijing but few big deals emerge

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Trump brought top CEOs to Beijing but few big deals emerge



There were plenty of choreographed ceremonies but no sweeping trade breakthrough as Trump met Xi in Beijing.



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