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Gold In 2025: After Over 50 All-Time Highs & 65% Return, What’s Next For Bullion In 2026?
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The year 2025 has been one of the best years for gold in decades, and silver outpaced gold to witness its best year since 1971. Here’re factors that will move prices in 2026.
Gold prices have increased in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including heightened geopolitical and global economic uncertainties, increased gold buying by global central banks, momentum buying by ETFs, as well as a weakening dollar and interest rate cuts across the globe.
Gold & Silver Price Updates: The year 2025 has been one of the best years for gold in decades, delivering over 60 per cent returns after hitting over 50 all-time highs. Silver outpaced gold to witness its best year since 1971. Though the precious metals are showing signs of further increase in prices, analysts said the outlook depends upon the geopolitical risks, ETF buying, central bank buying and economic situation next year.
Gold & silver prices in 2025
In the international market, gold prices had stood at nearly $2,600 an ounce as of January 1, 2025, and have consistently increased during the year. It has remained above all its moving averages this year, including the 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA), 100-DEMA, 50-DEMA, and 20-DEMA. The price now stands at about $4,300 an ounce as of December 13, 2025, which is a 65 per cent surge in prices during the calendar year 2025.
In India, gold prices in Mumbai had stood at nearly Rs 78,000 per 10 grams as of January 1, 2025, which has now increased to about Rs 1,34,000 per 10 grams. This is a jump of roughly 72 per cent during the year 2025.
Silver prices in the international market have also surged by 121% this year to about $62 an ounce as of December 13, 2025, compared with nearly $28 at the beginning of the year.
Gold and silver prices increased faster in India than the international market due to the rupee depreciation against the US dollar (which has hit a record low of 90.5 against the dollar), making gold (which is mainly imported) costlier for Indian consumers.
What factors led to such an increase in gold prices this year?
Gold prices have increased in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including heightened geopolitical and global economic uncertainties, increased gold buying by global central banks, momentum buying by ETFs, as well as a weakening dollar and interest rate cuts across the globe.
According to a Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) analysis, ‘risk & uncertainty’ contributed 11.5 percentage points to gold’s return this year and ‘opportunity cost’, which stems from weakening of dollar and interest rate cuts, accounted for another 10 percentage points.
“The contributions of the four main factors that drive gold have been usually balanced this year,” the World Gold Council said.
Why did silver prices rise faster than gold?
While gold demand in 2025 was driven largely by safe-haven buying and a lower opportunity cost, silver demand was supported not only by safe-haven flows but also by strong industrial consumption, specifically from the green energy transition.
“Demand from the Solar Photovoltaic (PV) sector has more than doubled in just four years, from 94.4 Moz in 2020 to 243.7 Moz in 2024. Solar alone accounted for nearly 21% of total demand in 2024, fundamentally altering the metal’s usage profile,” Axis Securities said in its latest report on silver.
It said the silver market has remained in deficit since 2021, with a cumulative shortfall of nearly 700 Moz over the 2021-2025 period. According to Refinitiv, the silver market is expected to continue in deficit in 2026, with a projected shortfall exceeding 100 Moz.
“Fears of impending US import tariffs have triggered a flight of physical metal toward US markets, sparking a historic “squeeze” in the futures market. Throughout the year, COMEX futures have persistently traded at a premium to London spot prices,” said Axis Securities.
What is the outlook for 2026?
Analysts said gold prices in 2026 depend upon macroeconomic fundamentals, geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and recycling supply.
“Recycling trends could significantly influence the market. Recycling has been unusually soft, in part due to the growing use of gold as loan collateral, particularly in India, where more than 200 tonnes of old jewellery have been pledged this year. Limited recycling supports prices, but a rise in distressed liquidation of this collateral could push secondary supply higher and weigh on the market,” according to a Delhi-based bullion market expert.
On the silver price outlook, Axis Securities said, “Prices exceeding $60/oz may begin to trigger demand destruction or thrifting/substitution (using less silver per unit) in the industrial sector. Global economic deceleration, specifically a contraction in high-tech manufacturing or electronics, could weigh on silver prices.”
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Oil prices fell and Asian stock markets surged to record highs on Wednesday after Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were making “great progress” toward a final agreement and announced a brief pause in US operations escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude tumbled 1.2 per cent to $108.51 a barrel, still well above its roughly $70 price before the war began, but lower than the highs of recent weeks.
Wall Street had already set records on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.8 per cent to a new all-time high and the Nasdaq gaining 1 per cent, as oil pulled back sharply after briefly crossing $115 on Monday.
Strong corporate earnings underpinned the Wall Street rally. DuPont surged 8.4 per cent after the chemical giant reported better-than-expected first-quarter profits and raised its full-year forecasts, even as it acknowledged some impact from logistics disruptions in the Middle East.
Pinterest jumped 6.9 per cent after its number of active monthly users rose 11 per cent to 631 million, beating Wall Street’s sales and profit targets. AB InBev climbed 8.7 per cent after topping profit forecasts on growth for its Corona, Stella Artois and Michelob Ultra brands. “Cheers to beer,” chief executive Michel Doukeris said.
Palantir fell 6.9 per cent despite beating expectations, as its stock continued to struggle on worries about increased competition. American Electric Power rose 1.8 per cent and Cummins added 2.8 per cent after both reported stronger-than-expected results.
In Europe, markets were mixed. The CAC 40 rose 1.1 per cent in Paris while the FTSE 100 fell 1.4 per cent in London. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8 per cent. Many Asian markets were closed for holidays.
The momentum carried into Asia on Wednesday, where MSCI‘s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 2.3 per cent to a fresh all-time high. South Korea’s Kospi surged 5.1 per cent, clearing the 7,000 mark for the first time, as Samsung Electronics jumped 12 per cent and crossed a $1 trillion market valuation, overtaking Berkshire Hathaway.
The AI trade drove much of the enthusiasm. Advanced Micro Devices jumped 16.5 per cent in extended trading after forecasting second-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations on strong demand from cloud computing companies accelerating spending on AI infrastructure.
“Due to the capital expenditure we are seeing from hyperscalers in the US, the earnings growth trajectory for sectors such as semiconductors, tech hardware, industrials and materials in Asia exceeds anything I have seen in a long time,” Rushil Khanna, head of equity investments for Asia at Ostrum, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, told Reuters. “This capex is leading to material value creation in Asia as the provider of the picks and shovels to the AI ecosystem.”
The diplomatic backdrop of US-Iran talks also helped the markets. Mr Trump said he would briefly pause US operations escorting ships through the strait, which has been effectively closed since Iran blockaded it in late February, triggering a global energy shock. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the ceasefire remained in place despite the US and Iran exchanging fire the previous day.
“Markets embraced a sense of calm and stability overnight, with the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict viewed as having diminished,” analysts from Westpac wrote in a note.
Despite the optimism, analysts cautioned that significant uncertainties remained this week.
“A fragile ceasefire, a novel blockade, Friday’s NFP and diminishing odds of a US-Iran peace deal are all converging this week,” said Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at trading broker FXTM.
“Gold may find itself on the losing end of conflict-induced inflation fears, even as uncertainty grips markets.”
Gold rose 1.2 per cent to $4,609.59. The dollar index slipped 0.1 per cent, snapping a three-day winning streak, with the euro rising to $1.1724 and sterling to $1.3577.
The Australian dollar climbed 0.6 per cent to its highest since June 2022, buoyed by improved risk appetite and underpinned by a third consecutive interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which cited the Middle East conflict’s impact on fuel and commodity prices. The ten-year US Treasury yield held flat at 4.424 per cent.
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Top stocks to buy today: Stock recommendations for May 6, 2026 – check list – The Times of India
Stock market recommendations: Mehul Kothari, DVP – Technical Research at Anand Rathi Shares has recommended Castrol India, Concord Biotech, and Intellect Design Arena as the top stocks to buy today, May 6, 2026.Castrol India Ltd – Harmonic Completion with Momentum ConfirmationBuy: ₹186–₹180 | Stop Loss: ₹166 | Target: ₹214Castrol India has completed a classic AB=CD harmonic structure, highlighting price symmetry and a potential reversal zone. This completion aligns with the 61.8% internal Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing the importance of this support area. Additionally, the presence of the 1.27 external retracement adds further confluence to the bullish setup. Momentum indicators support this view, with RSI sustaining above the 50 mark, indicating improving strength and positive bias. Overall, the structure suggests a high probability of upward movement from current levels.Concord Biotech Ltd – Base Formation with Momentum ExpansionBuy: ₹1200–₹1170 | Stop Loss: ₹1070 | Target: ₹1380Concord Biotech has formed a strong base in the ₹1000–₹1100 zone, supported by bullish divergence, indicating accumulation at lower levels. The RSI has crossed above the 60 mark for the first time in several months, reflecting a pickup in momentum and strengthening trend bias. Additionally, the stock has closed above the Williams Alligator indicator, suggesting a transition into a sustained uptrend. The confluence of these factors indicates improving sentiment and increasing buying interest, pointing toward potential continuation of the bullish move.Intellect Design Arena Ltd – Base Breakout with Trend Reversal SignalsBuy: ₹740–₹720 | Stop Loss: ₹660 | Target: ₹850Intellect Design Arena has developed a strong base in the ₹600–₹700 zone, supported by bullish divergence, indicating accumulation at lower levels. The RSI has moved above the 50 mark, signaling improving momentum and strengthening trend conditions. Additionally, the stock has broken above its previous swing high, confirming a potential trend reversal and shift towards an uptrend. The alignment of these technical factors reflects improving sentiment and rising buying interest, suggesting a high probability of continued bullish momentum in the near to medium term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
President Donald Trump raised hopes of an agreement between the US and Iran after days of escalation.
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