Business
Gold price prediction today: Where is gold rate headed this week as US Fed meeting in focus? Here’s the outlook – The Times of India
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are expected to react to the US Federal Reserve policy this week. Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers shares his views and recommendations for gold investors:Last week saw a blend of inflation trends & political interference which involved Fed independence risk created a wave of uncertainty, boosting safe haven appeal for gold as it continued to hit record highs.In the US, mixed inflation data, cooling labour markets, and weakening consumer sentiment kept expectations of a Fed rate cut in place. In Europe, political instability in France added to economic pressure, while the ECB held rates steady. China grappled with deflationary pressures & Japan prepared for snap elections. Other asset classes included, global equity markets ending the week higher, while US Treasury yields, & the US dollar weakened, while oil prices edged up. Gold recorded repeated all-time highs edging near to $ 3,700 per oz in the current week. Gold ETF investors continued to be heavy buyers continuing their purchase for third consecutive months with net holdings rising steadily. led by Western funds. (YTD Inflows: 472.7 tonnes inflows. Vs 6.8 tonnes outflows in 2024).In India, Gold ETFs recorded inflows of Rs 2,190 crore in August, the largest since January’s Rs. 3,751 crores. Global central banks now own more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996, indicating a substantial shift in their foreign exchange holdings. Gold has already surpassed the euro as the second most important reserve asset after the US dollar. Adjusting for over four decades of inflation the spot price of gold, also surpassed its inflation adjusted peak of $ 850 set on January 21, 1980 which comes to around $3590 per oz.
Gold Price Outlook
The current week remains most crucial for gold as the US Fed may announce its monetary policy on September 17, midnight. It is widely expected that the central bank may go ahead to slash its interest rates by 25 bps, as a slight possibility of a 50 bp cut also exists. Overall possibility of 3 rate cuts persists by the end of the year. Having said that, a summary of economic projections which includes projections on interest rate cuts to be released by the US Fed during the meeting remains crucial to be assessed for further direction in precious metal prices. Overall, a likely hawkish cut could bring in profit booking moves in prices. However, chances of any major correction lower remains’ limited, as the US labour market shows signs of weakening, where major supports lie at around $ 3620 – 3570 zone (CMP $ 3685). On the higher side, prices could turn volatile in the coming session post release of Fed statement as strong upside barriers could persist at around $ 3,720 – 3,750 per oz in spot. This could translate to a level of Rs. 1,12,000 – 1,12,500 // 10 gm on MCX futures contract on a higher side on a weekly basis.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Business
Sebi sets Rs 20,000 crore threshold for ‘significant indices’; Sensex, Nifty among benchmarks covered – The Times of India
Markets regulator Sebi has introduced a new framework to classify stock market benchmarks as “significant indices” if mutual fund schemes tracking them have a daily average cumulative assets under management (AUM) of more than Rs 20,000 crore for each of the preceding six months, PTI reported.The move is aimed at strengthening transparency, governance and accountability in the index ecosystem.“It is specified that a Benchmark or Index (including index of indices) based on listed securities shall be considered as ‘significant Indices’, if the daily average cumulative AUM tracking the Benchmark or Index across schemes of Mutual Fund(s) exceeds Rs 20,000 crore for each of the past six months, ending on June 30 and December 31 each year,” Sebi said in a circular.The regulator said the threshold will be reviewed on a half-yearly basis, and once classified as significant, an index will continue in that category unless its tracked AUM falls below the threshold for three consecutive years.The framework follows the introduction of the Sebi (Index Providers) Regulations, 2024, which govern entities administering such indices.Sebi also released an initial list of indices that qualify under the new norms. These include major benchmarks such as the BSE Sensex, Nifty 50, Nifty 500 and BSE 500, along with several sectoral, debt and hybrid indices managed by NSE Indices Ltd, BSE Index Services Pvt Ltd and CRISIL.Under the new rules, index providers offering significant indices must apply for Sebi registration within six months.However, indices already notified or authorised as benchmarks by the Reserve Bank of India under relevant RBI provisions have been exempted from this requirement.Existing index providers can continue operations during the transition phase if they file registration applications within the stipulated timeline.Sebi also said entities already registered in another category with the regulator but engaged in index-related activities will have to create a separate legal entity within two years to undertake index provider operations.The regulator clarified that grievance redressal mechanisms under the new regulations will apply only to significant indices administered by Sebi-registered index providers.
Business
UK services industry faces ‘short-lived’ rebound as costs rise sharply
Growth in the UK’s services sector rebounded last month with business activity picking up, but firms face a “short-lived” recovery amid surging costs and lower demand linked to war in the Middle East, a new survey has shown.
Experts cautioned that the outlook for firms may be weaker after a rush of activity in April.
The S&P Global UK services PMI survey showed a reading of 52.7 in April, up from 50.5 the previous month.
Any reading above 50.0 means the sector is growing while any reading below signals it is contracting.
Activity across the industry, which spans businesses from hospitality and leisure to healthcare and transport, has been increasing for almost a year.
But while the latest reading marked an improvement from March – when the US-Israel’s conflict with Iran escalated – it signals a slower rate of growth than at the start of the year.
Businesses taking part in the survey, which is watched closely by economists, cited worries about intensifying pressures on inflation, global supply shortages and elevated borrowing costs as factors holding back business and consumer demand in April.
Some firms said export sales were lower due to disruptions to business travel and weaker demand in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, others pointed out resilient global demand for technology services while backlogs of work also decreased.
But the survey revealed that cost pressures ramped up for businesses in the service industry last month.
Costs for companies rose at the fastest pace since November 2022, with firms widely attributing the increased bills to fuel costs and higher prices for raw materials including metals and plastics, which have been driven up by soaring energy prices since the start of the war.
Many firms also cited pressure from higher wages, following the increase to the national minimum wage at the start of April.
Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said April’s “modest recovery” for the industry could “easily prove short-lived as new business intakes remained subdued in comparison to the start of 2026”.
Mr Moore said: “Survey respondents widely noted that the Middle East conflict and subsequent global supply chain disruptions had weighed heavily on business and consumer confidence.”
Matt Swannell, chief economist for the Item Club, agreed that there were “already some signs that this jump will be short-lived as businesses reported little improvement in new work amidst weak domestic and foreign demand”.
“We think that the outlook for private sector activity is gloomier,” he went on.
“A sharp rise in inflation will cause households’ real incomes to fall and spending growth to slow.
“Supply chain disruption, rising costs and lingering geopolitical uncertainty will cause some businesses to put their investment plans on hold.”
Mr Swannell added that the survey suggests the Bank of England will prefer to keep interest rates held steady for the rest of the year, but that there was the potential for a hike in the summer.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said firms showed “resilience” last month, adding: “However, the rebound is partly fuelled by a rush of activity before price rises and supply shortages start to bite.”
He said future interest rate hikes were “more likely” as a result, but that “everything depends on how energy prices move going forward”.
Business
Oil prices fall as Trump pauses Project Freedom to seek final peace deal with Iran
Oil prices fell and Asian stock markets surged to record highs on Wednesday after Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were making “great progress” toward a final agreement and announced a brief pause in US operations escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude tumbled 1.2 per cent to $108.51 a barrel, still well above its roughly $70 price before the war began, but lower than the highs of recent weeks.
Wall Street had already set records on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.8 per cent to a new all-time high and the Nasdaq gaining 1 per cent, as oil pulled back sharply after briefly crossing $115 on Monday.
Strong corporate earnings underpinned the Wall Street rally. DuPont surged 8.4 per cent after the chemical giant reported better-than-expected first-quarter profits and raised its full-year forecasts, even as it acknowledged some impact from logistics disruptions in the Middle East.
Pinterest jumped 6.9 per cent after its number of active monthly users rose 11 per cent to 631 million, beating Wall Street’s sales and profit targets. AB InBev climbed 8.7 per cent after topping profit forecasts on growth for its Corona, Stella Artois and Michelob Ultra brands. “Cheers to beer,” chief executive Michel Doukeris said.
Palantir fell 6.9 per cent despite beating expectations, as its stock continued to struggle on worries about increased competition. American Electric Power rose 1.8 per cent and Cummins added 2.8 per cent after both reported stronger-than-expected results.
In Europe, markets were mixed. The CAC 40 rose 1.1 per cent in Paris while the FTSE 100 fell 1.4 per cent in London. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8 per cent. Many Asian markets were closed for holidays.
The momentum carried into Asia on Wednesday, where MSCI‘s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 2.3 per cent to a fresh all-time high. South Korea’s Kospi surged 5.1 per cent, clearing the 7,000 mark for the first time, as Samsung Electronics jumped 12 per cent and crossed a $1 trillion market valuation, overtaking Berkshire Hathaway.
The AI trade drove much of the enthusiasm. Advanced Micro Devices jumped 16.5 per cent in extended trading after forecasting second-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations on strong demand from cloud computing companies accelerating spending on AI infrastructure.
“Due to the capital expenditure we are seeing from hyperscalers in the US, the earnings growth trajectory for sectors such as semiconductors, tech hardware, industrials and materials in Asia exceeds anything I have seen in a long time,” Rushil Khanna, head of equity investments for Asia at Ostrum, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, told Reuters. “This capex is leading to material value creation in Asia as the provider of the picks and shovels to the AI ecosystem.”
The diplomatic backdrop of US-Iran talks also helped the markets. Mr Trump said he would briefly pause US operations escorting ships through the strait, which has been effectively closed since Iran blockaded it in late February, triggering a global energy shock. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the ceasefire remained in place despite the US and Iran exchanging fire the previous day.
“Markets embraced a sense of calm and stability overnight, with the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict viewed as having diminished,” analysts from Westpac wrote in a note.
Despite the optimism, analysts cautioned that significant uncertainties remained this week.
“A fragile ceasefire, a novel blockade, Friday’s NFP and diminishing odds of a US-Iran peace deal are all converging this week,” said Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at trading broker FXTM.
“Gold may find itself on the losing end of conflict-induced inflation fears, even as uncertainty grips markets.”
Gold rose 1.2 per cent to $4,609.59. The dollar index slipped 0.1 per cent, snapping a three-day winning streak, with the euro rising to $1.1724 and sterling to $1.3577.
The Australian dollar climbed 0.6 per cent to its highest since June 2022, buoyed by improved risk appetite and underpinned by a third consecutive interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which cited the Middle East conflict’s impact on fuel and commodity prices. The ten-year US Treasury yield held flat at 4.424 per cent.
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