Business
How Costly Is A $10 Oil Spike For India’s Economy?
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Every $10 rise in global crude oil prices could shave around 0.5 percentage points off India’s GDP growth, say experts
India imports nearly 50 percent of crude oil from the Middle East
Every $10 rise in global crude oil prices could shave around 0.5 percentage points off India’s GDP growth, underscoring the country’s heavy reliance on imported oil and vulnerability to global energy volatility, Vandana Bharti, Research Head–Commodity at SMC Global Securities, told ANI.
In an interview with ANI, Bharti said escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia pose a significant economic risk for India as crude prices climb and supply chains face potential disruptions.
“Every $10 increase in crude oil prices impacts India’s GDP by roughly 0.5%. We have already seen prices rise by about $10–$15 recently, and the economic impact will eventually reflect in growth numbers,” she said.
West Asia tensions driving oil prices higher
The surge in oil prices follows intensifying tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical maritime corridor through which roughly 20–25% of global oil shipments pass.
Bharti said the conflict has injected additional uncertainty into global energy markets and added what she described as a “war premium” to crude prices.
“It’s not just about the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz closing. Insurance costs and freight charges are rising, and shipments are being rerouted. All these factors add a war premium to crude oil prices and increase market uncertainty,” she said.
Risks extend beyond shipping
According to Bharti, the risks go beyond maritime routes and extend to energy infrastructure itself.
“Energy sites such as crude oil facilities and LNG plants are potential targets. There are also concerns about seabed cables and other critical infrastructure. So the threat is not only to energy supply but also to broader global trade and connectivity,” she noted.
Crude prices rise sharply
Oil prices have already surged as tensions intensified in the region.
Bharti said crude climbed from around $69 per barrel to nearly $78 per barrel within a week.
“In just one week we have seen prices move from about $69 to $78 per barrel. If tensions persist, crude could rise further to around $85–$87 per barrel in the coming days,” she said.
India’s reliance on Middle Eastern crude
India remains particularly vulnerable to such price shocks due to its heavy dependence on imported oil.
Bharti noted that roughly half of India’s crude imports come from the Middle East, and many domestic refineries are specifically configured to process Middle Eastern crude grades.
“India imports nearly 50% of its crude from the Middle East, so any disruption in the region directly impacts supply availability and pricing,” she said.
India maintains strategic petroleum reserves that can help cushion short-term disruptions, but Bharti emphasised that these are primarily meant for emergencies.
“We have reserves that can last about 25–30 days in emergency situations, but the structural dependence on Middle Eastern supply remains,” she said.
She added that even brief supply disruptions could trigger volatility across Asian financial markets.
“Even a two-week disruption could create significant volatility in Asia. We are already seeing pressure on currencies, equity outflows and rising economic uncertainty,” Bharti said.
Diversification may cushion the impact
Bharti said India could mitigate some risks by diversifying crude supply sources.
“Russia has been offering crude at discounted prices, so India may increase purchases from Russia or other suppliers if required. Adjusting supply chains and renegotiating trade arrangements can provide some relief,” she said.
She also pointed out that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may attempt to stabilise prices, although security concerns could limit immediate production increases.
Impact on fertilisers and agriculture
Higher crude prices could also ripple into other sectors of the economy.
Bharti warned that rising energy costs may push up fertiliser prices and agricultural input costs, potentially affecting the upcoming kharif crop season.
“Higher energy costs could make fertilisers and farm inputs more expensive, which may increase the cost of cultivation for farmers,” she said.
Renewables gain strategic importance
Bharti added that the ongoing geopolitical tensions highlight the need for countries to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
“Events like this are a wake-up call. Governments may increasingly prioritise renewable energy such as solar to reduce dependence on volatile fossil-fuel supply routes,” she said.
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March 06, 2026, 08:16 IST
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Advocates attend a news conference about the “impact of incarcerating those charged with marijuana-related offenses,” and policy reform ideas, outside the U.S. Capitol on April 20, 2026.
Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
A White House executive order on psychedelics, signed by President Donald Trump on Saturday, aims to speed up research on drugs like psilocybin, MDMA and ibogaine, helping to legitimize an industry that’s long lived largely underground.
But it also raises a broader question: Will psychedelics fall victim, like cannabis has, to a slow-moving federal process?
The latest executive order comes roughly four months after an effort by President Trump to reschedule cannabis, opening the door to greater research and investment opportunities. But since that directive, progress to reclassify cannabis has largely stalled, with the Drug Enforcement Administration review still ongoing and no final decision on moving marijuana from Schedule I to the lesser Schedule III.
The delay reflects how drug policy often slows once it enters interagency review, where scientific evaluation, legal standards and politics meet.
“The process has certainly been slow and frustrating for stakeholders when you consider they have spent decades fighting marijuana’s outrageous 1970s-era misclassification,” said Shawn Hauser, partner at cannabis law firm Vicente LLP.
Vicente LLP also serves as legal counsel for the National Compassionate Care Council, or NCCC, a coalition of health-care stakeholders focused on evidence-based cannabis policy.
The psychedelics order, however, focuses on research acceleration rather than legalization. It directs agencies like the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to expand clinical trials and “Right to Try” access for patients with serious mental health conditions, while leaving drug scheduling unchanged.
AtaiBeckley is among a number of psychedelics-focused drug developers whose stock is rallying since the order was signed over the weekend, up roughly 25% Monday. Several smaller-market cap stocks also jumped, including Compass Pathways, Definium Therapeutics and U.S.-listed shares of Cybin.
Hauser said the recent psychedelics order reflects a broader shift in Washington toward a medical-first framework and could mark a path forward for cannabis rescheduling.
“The science-, patient-, health-care-first approach is winning in Washington right now,” she said.
“The psychedelic pathway — built on physician-led protocols, clinical research and compassionate use frameworks — is actually a model cannabis advocates should be studying and adopting more aggressively,” Hauser said.
Safety first
Trump’s psychedelics measure has drawn particular attention for its inclusion of ibogaine, a powerful, naturally occurring psychoactive compound with long-standing safety concerns.
The drug is being studied for its applications with post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and addiction, but cardiac risks flagged by Nora Volkow of the National Institute on Drug Abuse remain a major barrier.
That tension is heightened by the expansion of “Right to Try” access, a federal law allowing patients diagnosed with life-threatening diseases or conditions to try experimental drugs when no other treatments work. This distinction typically applies only after Phase I trials are successful.
Ibogaine has struggled to meet that criteria, since most of the research into the drug has been conducted outside the U.S.
Psychedelic industry leaders say the order is meaningful, but the full impacts are still unknown until implementation catches up to prove scientific value.
“The opportunity now is not hype, it’s execution: rigorous science, disciplined safety standards, physician-led protocols and real-world outcome data,” said Tom Feegel, CEO of clinical neurohealth center Beond.
Beond, based in Cancun, Mexico, specializes in ibogaine therapy.
Feegel added that while the executive order signals legitimacy at the highest level of government, the next phase is critical.
Psychedelics still lack a commercial market, though clinical-stage developers, like AtaiBeckley, Compass and GH Research, are emerging. Many prioritize research around less controversial psychedelics like psilocybin and MDMA derivatives for mental health treatment.
U.S. states have been weighing the space, too. Colorado advanced regulated psychedelic access for its residents in 2022, while a Massachusetts ballot measure failed in 2024 with 56% of voters rejecting the access.
Cannabis, by contract, already has a multibillion-dollar adult-use industry across dozens of states, giving it a significant head start even as federal rescheduling remains unresolved.
Hauser argued the two industries are ultimately reinforcing one another.
“The two regulatory tracks aren’t in conflict,” she said. “Both are advancing the broader legitimacy of plant-based alternative medicines, and the infrastructure being built for one will inevitably support the other.”
Savers across the UK are being offered a record number of accounts and products and with interest rates still well above 4 per cent on the most competitive options, should make sure their cash is working hard.
Data from Moneyfacts shows the number of savings accounts has risen to 2,486, including ISAs, the highest number on record. Cash ISAs alone, meanwhile, also saw the largest monthly rise since May 2024 and, with 712 offers in total, is the most since Moneyfacts started recording.
Both numbers come as the final tax year gets underway in which all savers are able to deposit a full £20,000 annual allowance into a cash ISA.
Starting from April 2027, under-65s will only be able to save a maximum of £12,000 into the tax-free savings wrappers, with the additional £8,000 reserved for investment purposes, such as a stocks and shares ISA.
That’s as part of a wider push from the government to encourage more people to invest, to build future wealth.
High interest rates are important not only to earn a good return on cash, but to ensure money doesn’t lose its value, or buying power, when measured against rising prices; in other words, inflation, which currently sits at around 3 per cent and is set to rise.
That means consumers should whenever possible look to be beating that rate as a minimum when it comes to their saving accounts, and plenty of places are still offering 4.5 per cent and even higher right now.
“This year the competition around ISA season was particularly strong, fuelled by the fact that for savers under 65 it’s the final year for them to utilise their full £20,000 allowance. Providers have been enticing new deposits with attractive deals,” said Caitlyn Eastell, personal finance analyst at Moneyfacts.
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“Savers should be taking advantage of this all-time high, and it may be especially timely as the new tax-year is the perfect window to review their current deal and switch to ensure they can maximise their returns before thresholds tighten.
“The number of savings deals paying above the Bank of England base rate has surged to its highest level since December 2021. While this could largely be driven by base rate remaining unchanged several months, providers have also been proactively adjusting rates in response to shifting interest rate expectations.
“Fixed rates reflect this change, with the average one-year ISA rising to over 4 per cent, reaching its highest point since May 2025, while its non-ISA counterpart saw its biggest increase since September 2023. Savers may enjoy more competitive returns in this environment; however, it can be a tricky balancing act because sharp spikes to household bills and inflation could quickly catch up, meaning savers may be left out of pocket.”
Meanwhile, thisbank has pointed to growing evidence showing that many households have multiple money accounts, but no clear overview of their true financial position.
Reviewing accounts – including joint and old current accounts – can turn up unexpected cash reserves, help families realise which subscriptions they are paying for but are no longer using and aid better budgeting, the bank says, giving a better understanding of where income and expenses match up.
“For many households, financial stress is exacerbated by complexity. By taking a simple, step-by-step approach, people can implement structure and clarity in their everyday financial management,” said Chris Waring, CEO of thisbank, while recommending each savings account has a particular role, such as everyday spending, long-term emergency buffer or fixed-term saver accounts with strong rates for predictable returns.
Underlining the need to be aware of where consumers are choosing to put their cash, analysis by savings app Spring shows that a huge majority of premium, paid-for accounts come with poorer returns, tiered interest rates or withdrawal restrictions.
Under a quarter (23 per cent) of easy access savings accounts on premium current accounts on the market are free of additional restrictions, their research showed, which included lower returns after £4,000 in an account with one, a paltry 1.35 per cent on balances under £100,000 elsewhere and nearly a third (30 per cent) having withdrawal limits.
The FTSE 100 started the week on the back foot on Monday as hopes for a peace deal in the Middle East once more hung in the balance.
“Just when you think it is safe to go back in the water, the alarm is sounded again,” said Tom Stevenson, investment director, Fidelity International.
The FTSE 100 closed down 58.55 points, 0.6%, at 10,609.08. The FTSE 250 ended 265.71 points lower, 1.2%, at 22,940.21, and the AIM All-Share fell 1.77 points, 0.2%, to 808.34.
Friday’s optimism gave way to renewed fears that hostilities could resume in the Middle East war after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following its brief reopening.
“The market mood is very different at the start of the week compared to Friday,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
The price of crude oil had plunged Friday after Iran said it would again allow ships to pass through the key shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz.
But prices rose once more on Monday as Iran closed the waterway and said the US blockade and seizure of an Iranian cargo ship breached the two-week ceasefire.
Brent oil traded higher at 94.45 dollars a barrel on Monday afternoon, compared with 89.15 dollars at the time of the equities close in London on Friday.
Ms Brooks said the jump in oil prices and pull-back in stocks is a reminder that the current ceasefire that expires on Wednesday is “fragile”.
On Monday, Iran insisted it has no plan to attend a new round of negotiations with the US, although US President Donald Trump said he was sending negotiators to Pakistan for talks.
In European equities on Monday, the CAC 40 in Paris ended down 1.1%, and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt fell 1.2%.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1%, the S&P 500 was 0.3% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.5%.
Strategists at HSBC and UBS remained bullish on equity markets despite the latest market unease.
“Our view remains that we have passed peak geopolitical risk. Both sides have a strong incentive to find a deal. That said, we have been urging investors to expect a bumpy road to a lasting peace,” said Mark Haefele at UBS.
While, Max Kettner at HSBC said: “Despite the recent rally across the risk asset spectrum our sentiment and positioning framework still sends a buy signal. In short: be quick.”
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury stretched to 4.26% on Monday compared with 4.24% on Friday. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury widened to 4.89% from 4.88%.
The pound eased to 1.3535 dollars on Monday afternoon from 1.3556 dollars on Friday. Against the euro, sterling firmed to 1.1486 euros from 1.1481 euros.
The euro traded lower against the greenback, falling to 1.1786 dollars on Monday from 1.1805 dollars on Friday. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at 158.58 yen, up from 158.08 yen.
On London’s FTSE 100, oil majors BP and Shell benefited from the rising oil price, up 2.9% and 2.5%, recouping some of Friday’s heavy falls, while British Airways owner IAG fell 2.2%.
On the FTSE 250, Renishaw led the risers, up 6.2%, as it raised full-year guidance reflecting buoyant demand and a further “substantial expansion of our order book”.
The Gloucestershire-based supplier of manufacturing technologies, analytical instruments and medical devices now expects revenue in the financial year to June of £775 million to £805 million, raised from guidance of £740 million to £780 million provided in February.
It projects adjusted pre-tax profit of £145 million to £165 million, lifted from £132 million to £157 million.
Plus500 gained 3.8% as it said customer income reached a five-year record high in the first quarter of 2026 as it forecast full-year revenue and earnings ahead of market expectations.
Reflecting a strong first quarter of 2026, the Israel-based trading platform operator said it expects 2026 revenue and Ebitda to be ahead of current market expectations which it put at 779.3 million dollars and 360.4 million dollars respectively.
Chief executive David Zruia said: “The group delivered an excellent performance in the quarter, with strong growth across key financial and operational metrics.”
Elsewhere, bid interest drove shares of Evoke and Advanced Medical Solutions higher.
William Hill owner Evoke jumped 4.1% after it said it is in discussions with US casino operator Bally’s Intralot regarding a possible all-share takeover offer worth more than £200 million.
Back in December, Evoke kicked off a strategic review, which it said could include a sale of the company, after the UK Government budget which the gambling firm warned would lift yearly duty costs by up to £135 million.
Meanwhile, Advanced Medical Solutions rose 16% as it confirmed it is in talks regarding a possible offer for the company, little more than 12 months after another potential suitor failed to secure a deal with the firm.
On Saturday, Sky News reported that Boston-based private equity firm TA Associates was preparing an offer for AMS worth around 280 pence per share, or £600 million in total.
On Monday, the Cheshire-based surgical dressings company confirmed the talks with TA Associates, but stressed there can be no certainty that a firm offer will be made.
In March 2025, AMS was the subject of bid interest from London-based mid-market private equity firm Montagu Private Equity LLP, although no formal offer materialised.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould noted the latest takeover talks mean that 20 firms on the UK stock market are already involved in bid discussions this year.
“Even though the would-be buyers are yet to set a price tag for five of the proposed transactions, the total value of bids on the table is already £29.3 billion, equivalent to the aggregate reached across all successful bids in 2025, and the largest sum at this stage for any year this decade,” he pointed out.
Mr Mould said the level of interest “suggests that would-be buyers still believe the UK stock market offers value”.
Gold traded at 4,806.14 dollars an ounce on Monday, down from 4,869.13 dollars at the same time on Friday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Centrica, up 6.90p at 204.30p, BP, up 15.90p at 556.90p, Shell, up 78.50p at 3,274.50p, British American Tobacco, up 82.00p at 4,224.00p and SSE, up 47.00p at 2,516.50p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Metlen Energy & Metals, down 1.88p at 33.70p, Antofagasta, down 175.50p at 3,783.50p, Barratt Redrow, down 11.10p at 268.00p, Rolls Royce, down 48.20p at 1,262.40p and Fresnillo, down 120.00p at 3,662.00p.
Tuesday’s global economic calendar has UK unemployment and average earnings data at 7am, followed by US retail sales figures.
Tuesday’s local corporate calendar has a trading statement from miner Rio Tinto and half-year results from Primark owner Associated British Foods.
Contributed by Alliance News
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