Business
How will Donald Trump’s pick for US central bank chairman affect markets?
Donald Trump has announced his pick for chairman of the US’s Federal Reserve in a move which could instigate change at the central bank at a time when it faces mounting pressure over its independence.
Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has been nominated by Mr Trump to replace current chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.
The US dollar and European stock markets were moving higher on Friday morning, with experts suggesting that the selection may soothe some investors.
An appointment, which would need to be approved by the US Senate, would mark a return to the US central bank for Mr Warsh who was a member of its board from 2006 to 2011 and served as its governor during the 2008 financial crisis.
He is thought of as a more conservative-leaning economist with a reputation for being relatively “hawkish” – meaning he typically supports higher interest rates to control inflation.
His selection is therefore being viewed by traders and economists as a more moderate choice from the president who has repeatedly called for the Fed to cut the country’s interest rates more quickly.
Nevertheless, experts said investors will be alert to Mr Warsh’s more recent vocalising of his support for lower rates.
Stuart Clark, a portfolio manager at Quilter, said: “Concerns around Fed independence and an erosion on this should now be tempered, although Warsh’s words and actions will be scrutinised by market participants intensely.
“This appointment is also likely to calm markets, which had of late started to get more volatile.”
He added: “As ever in the world of a Trump presidency, things are never quiet and thus investors will need to keep on their toes.”
Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at Aberdeen Investments, said: “Warsh’s experience on the Fed, where he developed a reputation as a very competent crisis-fighter with a good understanding of financial markets, and long track record of independent thought about monetary policy, means he is a credible nomination.
“As chair, he will almost certainly push for lower interest rates, consistent with our forecast of two 25 basis point cuts later this year.”
Mr Trump’s decision comes at a fraught time for current chairman Jerome Powell who, earlier this month, released a video statement to say that he was being threatened by a criminal investigation under Mr Trump’s administration.
Mr Powell said the move related to evidence he gave about renovation projects at the Fed’s office buildings.
But he claimed that the threats were a “consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president”.
The statement prompted central bank bosses around the world, including the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, to offer their support to Mr Powell and insist upon preserving the independence of the institution.
The Fed, like other central banks, operates independently of the government – meaning it sets interest rate policy without political interference.
It also means that whoever is picked as chair takes on a key role with a significant amount of power over the world’s biggest economy.
Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said: “Investors seem to be taking this as a positive sign in terms of Fed independence – with Warsh perceived as a more orthodox choice versus some of the other mooted names.
“He has previously served as a Fed governor and went up against Powell when he got the job of chair in 2017.
“Whether Warsh will transform from a hawk to a dove thanks to external pressure, assuming he gets the job, will only become clear over time.”
The pound was down by about 0.4% against the US dollar on Friday afternoon. The euro was also down by 0.4% against the US currency.
Business
Sky‑high losses: Iran war drives airlines to biggest crash since Covid – $50bn gone – The Times of India
Global airlines have suffered their worst financial shock since the COVID‑19 pandemic as the ongoing war involving US Israel and Iran has disrupted industry operations, wiping more than $50 billion off the market value of the world’s largest carriers amid rising fears of fuel shortages.The conflict, now entering its fourth week, has grounded flights, disrupted key Gulf hub airports and driven jet fuel prices sharply higher, compounding pressure on an industry that was rebounding strongly following pandemic‑related losses.According to Financial Times calculations, the 20 largest publicly listed airlines have collectively lost about $53 billion in market capitalisation since the war began. In response, airline executives have warned of a potential rise in ticket prices as carriers seek to protect shrinking profit margins.Jet fuel, which accounts for roughly a third of operating costs for airlines, has doubled in price since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February. Many carriers had hedged against fuel price swings, but the rapid rise is expected to force airlines to pass on costs to passengers.“Fuel spiked quite heavily after the Ukraine invasion in 2022 as well, but this has gone further north,” easyJet chief executive Kenton Jarvis told FT, describing the current crisis as the most significant upheaval since the pandemic closed global skies in 2020.Executives also point to broader structural challenges, including the risk that sustained high fares may dampen demand. Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa, said higher ticket prices were unavoidable but expressed concern that they could weaken long‑term demand. “Our average profit is about €10 per passenger, there’s no way you can absorb the additional cost,” he said.In addition to passenger traffic pressures, airlines are preparing contingency plans for possible jet fuel shortages. Air France‑KLM CEO Ben Smith said the carrier is drawing up measures to cope with potential supply squeezes, including scaling back services on some Asian routes.The crisis has hit Middle Eastern carriers particularly hard. Carriers such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways have had to sharply reduce schedules due to airspace closures and a collapse in regional tourism, industry officials say. Despite the severity of the current disruption, Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), noted that it still falls short of the pandemic’s impact but is reminiscent of the downturn in transatlantic demand after the 9/11 attacks, according to FT.
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What should airlines prioritize during the current crisis?
The conflict’s ripple effects are also visible in cargo operations, as freight traffic shifts from disrupted shipping routes to air cargo, straining airport facilities. At Geneva airport, for example, freight re‑routing has led to overflow onto services bound for Paris.Industry observers remain hopeful that airline valuations and demand will rebound once the conflict abates. “The share price has moved against all airlines since the start of the conflict,” Jarvis said, adding that short sellers would likely close positions quickly if a ceasefire is announced.
Business
Watch: Cargo ship Pyxis Pioneer, carrying LPG from US, arrives at Mangalore Port – The Times of India
NEW DELHI: The Pyxis Pioneer, a Singapore-flagged cargo vessel carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Texas in the United States, docked at New Mangalore Port in Karnataka’s Mangaluru on Sunday.Click here for live updates on Middle East crisis The tanker, built in 2019, arrived a day after the Aqua Titan, which is transporting 1.1 lakh tonnes of Urals crude, reached the port. The Aqua Titan had initially set sail from Primorsk in Russia for Rizhao Port in China before diverting to India.On Friday, the Shipping Ministry said that New Mangalore Port has waived cargo-related charges for crude oil and LPG between March 14 and 31 amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.Also Read | Watch: Missile strike rocks Israel’s ‘Little India’ as Iran attack injures over 40; videos show chaos Earlier this week, three Indian-flagged vessels — Shivalik, Nanda Devi, and Jag Laadki — docked at Gujarat’s Mundra Port carrying LPG. While Shivalik arrived on Monday, Nanda Devi and Jag Laadki reached on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.On February 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, triggering the current conflict. In response, Iran has carried out retaliatory attacks on Israeli territory and on Gulf states hosting U.S. military bases. Tehran has also effectively disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global chokepoint through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply passes — raising concerns over energy security and global markets.Also Read | Under the sea: How Iran’s invisible fleet of ‘midget submarines’ is turning Strait of Hormuz into danger zone‘All Indian ships and sailors safe’ At Friday’s interministerial briefing on Friday, shipping ministry special secretary Rajesh Kumar Sinha said all 22 Indian ships and 611 sailors in the Persian Gulf are safe amid the ongoing conflict.“There has been no report of any maritime incident in the last 24 hours. All our 22 ships and 611 Indian sailors in the Persian Gulf region are safe, and we are continuously monitoring them… There is no congestion in any port… New Mangalore Port has issued a circular for waiver of all cargo-related charges for crude and LPG from March 14 to 31,” Sinha told reporters.Also Read | Iran invasion next? Pentagon plans for deployment of US troops on ground – reportMeanwhile, the petroleum ministry noted panic booking of LPG cylinders has eased significantly, with 55 lakh bookings reported on Thursday.“There is no panic booking now. Only 55 lakh LPG bookings were reported yesterday. There is adequate stock available, and no outlets are running dry,” joint secretary Sujata Sharma said at the briefing.However, she acknowledged that concerns persist.
Business
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