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How will Donald Trump’s pick for US central bank chairman affect markets?

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How will Donald Trump’s pick for US central bank chairman affect markets?



Donald Trump has announced his pick for chairman of the US’s Federal Reserve in a move which could instigate change at the central bank at a time when it faces mounting pressure over its independence.

Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has been nominated by Mr Trump to replace current chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

The US dollar and European stock markets were moving higher on Friday morning, with experts suggesting that the selection may soothe some investors.

An appointment, which would need to be approved by the US Senate, would mark a return to the US central bank for Mr Warsh who was a member of its board from 2006 to 2011 and served as its governor during the 2008 financial crisis.

He is thought of as a more conservative-leaning economist with a reputation for being relatively “hawkish” – meaning he typically supports higher interest rates to control inflation.

His selection is therefore being viewed by traders and economists as a more moderate choice from the president who has repeatedly called for the Fed to cut the country’s interest rates more quickly.

Nevertheless, experts said investors will be alert to Mr Warsh’s more recent vocalising of his support for lower rates.

Stuart Clark, a portfolio manager at Quilter, said: “Concerns around Fed independence and an erosion on this should now be tempered, although Warsh’s words and actions will be scrutinised by market participants intensely.

“This appointment is also likely to calm markets, which had of late started to get more volatile.”

He added: “As ever in the world of a Trump presidency, things are never quiet and thus investors will need to keep on their toes.”

Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at Aberdeen Investments, said: “Warsh’s experience on the Fed, where he developed a reputation as a very competent crisis-fighter with a good understanding of financial markets, and long track record of independent thought about monetary policy, means he is a credible nomination.

“As chair, he will almost certainly push for lower interest rates, consistent with our forecast of two 25 basis point cuts later this year.”

Mr Trump’s decision comes at a fraught time for current chairman Jerome Powell who, earlier this month, released a video statement to say that he was being threatened by a criminal investigation under Mr Trump’s administration.

Mr Powell said the move related to evidence he gave about renovation projects at the Fed’s office buildings.

But he claimed that the threats were a “consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president”.

The statement prompted central bank bosses around the world, including the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, to offer their support to Mr Powell and insist upon preserving the independence of the institution.

The Fed, like other central banks, operates independently of the government – meaning it sets interest rate policy without political interference.

It also means that whoever is picked as chair takes on a key role with a significant amount of power over the world’s biggest economy.

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said: “Investors seem to be taking this as a positive sign in terms of Fed independence – with Warsh perceived as a more orthodox choice versus some of the other mooted names.

“He has previously served as a Fed governor and went up against Powell when he got the job of chair in 2017.

“Whether Warsh will transform from a hawk to a dove thanks to external pressure, assuming he gets the job, will only become clear over time.”

The pound was down by about 0.4% against the US dollar on Friday afternoon. The euro was also down by 0.4% against the US currency.



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Trump Might Welcome Chinese Investment, but America Is Wary

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Trump Might Welcome Chinese Investment, but America Is Wary


A hallmark of President Trump’s second term has been his penchant for negotiating economic deals with countries that pledge to invest trillions of dollars in the United States

“It’s now pouring in from all parts of the world,” Mr. Trump said during a speech last fall in which he boasted of nearly $20 trillion of foreign investment.

The meetings this week between Mr. Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing are expected to include talks over purchases of American farm products and planes and the possibility of expanding access for American companies into China’s vast consumer market.

There has also been speculation that Mr. Trump and his advisers are seeking a major investment from China. But such a pledge could be complicated by deep distrust in the United States toward Chinese firms, which many workers blame for the hollowing out of American manufacturing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the challenge in an interview on CNBC on Thursday, explaining that the United States and China were working to develop an investment board that would determine what sectors were acceptable for Chinese investment. That would essentially provide China with guidance on how to invest in the United States without its transactions being blocked by the Committee on Foreign Investment, an interagency group that reviews foreign investment and is led by Mr. Bessent.

“Look, there are plenty of things that the Chinese could invest in in the U.S.,” said Mr. Bessent, who is in Beijing with Mr. Trump.

Chinese investment in the United States has declined sharply in recent years amid tougher investment screening standards nationally and at the state level.

That sentiment could ultimately clash with Mr. Trump’s transactional instincts and his desire to return home with a big-ticket win.

“If Trump were to be committed to a major investment deal with China, there’s still a challenge of implementation,” said Kyle Jaros, an expert on U.S.-China ties at the University of Notre Dame. “It would take real follow-through to overcome a lot of the political and regulatory barriers that are in place right now.”

According to a report published last month by the research firm Rhodium Group, less than $3 billion of Chinese investment in the United States was announced in 2025. That was the lowest on record, with investment peaking at around $45 billion in 2016.

The United States has imposed tight restrictions on Chinese investment out of national security concerns, making it difficult for Chinese firms to build factories near military facilities. Some states also have enacted restrictions on Chinese purchases of real estate and farmland.

China’s clean energy technology, such as electric vehicles and batteries, has also faced challenges in the United States because of political backlash. There was a surge of Chinese investment in those sectors after clean energy and tax legislation was passed under the Biden administration in 2022, but according to Rhodium, more than half of those investments have been canceled, paused or delayed.

A $2.4 billion electric vehicle battery factory that the Chinese company Gotion was building in Michigan was canceled last year after the community there protested and mounted legal challenges to stop the project.

Other types of Chinese investment have also stirred controversy. That includes the recent purchase by Nongfu Spring, a Chinese bottled water company, of a warehouse in New Hampshire that it wants to turn into a bottling facility. The purchase was reviewed last year by the state’s attorney general.

After the inquiry found that there was no wrongdoing associated with the transaction, Gov. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire issued executive orders to block China, Russia and Iran from getting access to data or purchasing land or property in the state. “Foreign adversaries like China should not be doing business in New Hampshire,” said Ms. Ayotte, a Republican.

There continues to be deep skepticism within the U.S. automobile industry about competition from China. Last month, a group of American steel associations sent a letter to top Trump administration officials urging them to keep Chinese car manufacturers out of the United States.

“As representatives of our nation’s manufacturing sector, we urge you to ensure American competitiveness by not surrendering access to the U.S. auto market to the Chinese Communist Party,” they wrote. “Additionally, allowing Chinese companies and Chinese autos into the U.S. would create consequential, unacceptable national security risks.”

Agriculture also remains a contentious issue. The chairman of the House select committee on China, Representative John Moolenaar, a Republican from Michigan, introduced new legislation this month that would ban China from acquiring U.S. farmland.

“Food security is national security, and we cannot allow foreign adversaries like China to buy up American farmland near our most sensitive military and critical infrastructure sites,” Mr. Moolenaar said.

The bipartisan bill would create a requirement for the federal government to review Chinese deals involving ports and telecommunications infrastructure. It would also apply to purchases made by investors from Russia, Iran and North Korea

Michael Pillsbury, a China scholar who has served as an outside adviser to the Trump administration, said that the president’s advisers were concerned about Chinese investments in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, aerospace and critical minerals. It has been a challenge, he said, to come up with a “white list” of sectors that could be considered safe.

“The red lines have moved back and forth as the nature of technology has changed,” Mr. Pillsbury said.

He added that while Mr. Trump is eager to announce a $1 trillion Chinese investment pledge, he is mindful not to incite political backlash.

“I think there’s been an effort by the administration to avoid getting into a fight with the China hawks,” Mr. Pillsbury added.

Ahead of Mr. Trump’s trip to China, a White House official downplayed the idea that the administration was seeking to create a new $1 trillion Chinese investment program. The White House continues to be focused on pushing China to increase its purchases of American farm goods, which it boycotted for much of last year when trade tensions flared.

Despite the anticipation of a Chinese investment pledge, the details and follow-through will be important.

While Mr. Trump has said that foreign investments have topped $20 trillion, according to the White House’s own investment tracker, U.S. and foreign investment pledges made during Mr. Trump’s second term total $10.6 trillion. Foreign leaders appear to have learned that they can win favor with Mr. Trump by promising whopping investment pledges that they might not fulfill.

“The devil is in the details,” said Philip Ludvigson, a partner in King & Spalding who specializes in national security risks and foreign investment, “about not only where the investment goes but also whether it happens at all.”



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‘Cheaper’ funeral option left Somerset man unable to say goodbye

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‘Cheaper’ funeral option left Somerset man unable to say goodbye



Ed Cullen says his mum had an unattended cremation which saved money but was “devastating” for him.



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Trump brought top CEOs to Beijing but few big deals emerge

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Trump brought top CEOs to Beijing but few big deals emerge



There were plenty of choreographed ceremonies but no sweeping trade breakthrough as Trump met Xi in Beijing.



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