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‘Indian Economy Continues To Gain Momentum Despite Uncertain Global Outlook’: FinMin Report

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‘Indian Economy Continues To Gain Momentum Despite Uncertain Global Outlook’: FinMin Report


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‘Demand conditions across rural and urban India strengthened with…GST reforms and the festive season,’ the finance ministry says in latest Monthly Economic Review.

The finance ministry said the combination of macroeconomic stability, regulatory reforms, and ongoing structural initiatives is expected to have a positive multiplier effect on economic activity.

Despite global economic uncertainties and trade disruptions, India’s economy has continued to gather strength, supported by robust domestic demand, strong manufacturing and services activity, and contained inflation, according to the finance ministry’s Monthly Economic Review for September 2025 released on October 27.

“Amidst…uncertain global outlook, India’s economy continues to gain momentum. Demand conditions across rural and urban India strengthened with the implementation of the GST reforms and the festive season, coinciding with industry reports signalling robust growth in sales, particularly in sectors such as automobiles. On the supply side, the manufacturing and services sectors expanded healthily. Taking into account the higher-than-anticipated growth in Q1 FY26 and steady upward trends visible in Q2 FY26, India’s growth forecasts for FY26 have been upgraded,” the finance ministry said in the report.

The report noted that economic activity worldwide has remained steady over the past few months, despite adverse trade policy disruptions. As a result, global economic growth this year is now expected to fare better than initially feared. This is reflected in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) upward revision of the global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2 per cent in October 2025, compared with 3 per cent in July 2025 and 2.8 per cent in April 2025. Several transitory factors, such as a lower effective tariff rate in the US and frontloading of trade, have contributed to propping up growth. However, this resilience masks underlying structural weaknesses which are coming to the fore, leaving projections for global growth in 2026 broadly unchanged since July 2025.

The IMF now expects India’s real GDP to grow 6.6% in FY26, while the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projects an even higher 6.8% growth, reflecting upgrades of 20 and 30 basis points, respectively.

Inflation Under Control, Price Stability Expected to Continue

The report highlighted that inflation remains well within control, aided by continued deflation in food categories. Retail headline inflation eased to 1.54% in September 2025, bringing the Q2 FY26 average to 1.7%.

Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) stood at 4.6% in September, with prices of non-food items staying stable. The ministry said, barring any adverse weather events or supply chain shocks, price stability is likely to prevail.

The RBI expects inflation to average 1.8% in Q3 FY26, with a slight uptick in Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 as base effects fade.

RBI Measures Support Liquidity and Credit Flow

The finance ministry credited the RBI’s liquidity management for ensuring adequate credit availability to support growth. The transmission of monetary policy into money and credit markets remains effective, reflecting the central bank’s calibrated approach.

It added that the RBI’s recent regulatory and development policies demonstrate a “balanced response” to evolving macroeconomic conditions — combining prudence with reforms aimed at strengthening banks, boosting credit flow, simplifying forex management, and internationalising the Indian Rupee.

External Trade Remains Resilient

India’s external sector has also shown resilience despite a volatile global trade environment. Total exports of goods and services grew 4.4% year-on-year in the first half of FY26 to reach USD 413.3 billion.

While merchandise exports rose 3%, services exports expanded 6.1% during the same period. Core merchandise exports, excluding petroleum and gems & jewellery, grew a strong 7.5%, underscoring the competitiveness of India’s manufacturing base.

Labour Market, Reforms, and Innovation Drive Growth

The government’s emphasis on skill development and job creation has helped stabilise the labour market in H1 FY26, with rising labour force participation and employment growth in both industry and services.

The introduction of GST 2.0 is expected to further stimulate consumption and investment, creating a multiplier effect on employment and demand.

The report also highlighted the government’s focus on research and innovation to boost global competitiveness. The Promotion of Research & Innovation in Pharma-MedTech Sector (PRIP) scheme, launched by the Department of Pharmaceuticals, will provide around ₹11,000 crore in support for R&D projects. The initiative aims to transform India’s Pharma-MedTech sector into a globally competitive, innovation-driven ecosystem by funding early-stage research and promoting flexible collaborations focused on public health priorities.

Outlook: Growth Momentum to Sustain

The finance ministry said the combination of macroeconomic stability, regulatory reforms, and ongoing structural initiatives is expected to have a positive multiplier effect on economic activity. These efforts, it said, will support domestic demand, enhance resilience, and help sustain India’s growth momentum despite a challenging global environment.

“Looking ahead, the lower GST rate is expected to support a positive demand outlook by reducing the tax burden on consumers and businesses, stimulating consumption and investment across sectors and boosting employment generation in the economy. Moreover, a strong performance in the industries and services sector, along with a stable labour market, will further enhance domestic demand. Nevertheless, global uncertainties warrant caution and will continue to affect external demand, presenting downside risks to the growth outlook,” the ministry said.

The implementation of various growth-enhancing structural reforms and government initiatives, including GST 2.0, is expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts of these external challenges, it added.

Mohammad Haris

Mohammad Haris

Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h…Read More

Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h… Read More

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New Income Tax Act 2025 to come into effect from April 1, key reliefs announced in Budget 2026

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New Income Tax Act 2025 to come into effect from April 1, key reliefs announced in Budget 2026


New Delhi: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday said that the Income Tax Act 2025 will come into effect from April 1, 2026, and the I-T forms have been redesigned such that ordinary citizens can comply without difficulty for ease of living. 

The new measures include exemption on insurance interest awards, nil deduction certificates for small taxpayers, and extension of the ITR filing deadline for non-audit cases to August 31. 

Individuals with ITR 1 and ITR 2 will continue to file I-T returns till July 31.

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“In July 2024, I announced a comprehensive review of the Income Tax Act 1961. This was completed in record time, and the Income Tax Act 2025 will come into effect from April 1, 2026. The forms have been redesigned such that ordinary citizens can comply without difficulty, for)  ease of living,” she said while presenting the Budget 2026-27

In a move that directly eases cash-flow pressure on individuals making overseas payments, the Union Budget announced lower tax collection at source across key categories.

“I propose to reduce the TCS rate on the sale of overseas tour programme packages from the current 5 per cent and 20 per cent to 2 per cent without any stipulation of amount. I propose to reduce the TCS rate for pursuing education and for medical purposes from 5 per cent to 2 per cent,” said Sitharaman.

She clarified withholding on services, adding that “supply of manpower services is proposed to be specifically brought within the ambit of payment contractors for the purpose of TDS to avoid ambiguity”.

“Thus, TDS on these services will be at the rate of either 1 per cent or 2 per cent only,” she mentioned during her Budget speech.

The Budget also proposes a tax holiday for foreign cloud companies using data centres in India till 2047.



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Budget 2026 Live Updates: TCS On Overseas Tour Packages Slashed To 2%; TDS On Education LRS Eased

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Budget 2026 Live Updates: TCS On Overseas Tour Packages Slashed To 2%; TDS On Education LRS Eased


Union Budget 2026 Live Updates: Union Budget 2026 Live Updates: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is presenting the Union Budget 2026-27 in Parliament, her record ninth budget speech. During her Budget Speech, the FM will detail budgetary allocations and revenue projections for the upcoming financial year 2026-27. Sitharaman is notably dressed in a Kanjeevaram Silk saree, a nod to the traditional weaving sector in poll-bound Tamil Nadu.

The budget comes at a time when there is geopolitical turmoil, economic volatility and trade war. Different sectors are looking to get some support with new measures and relaxations ahead of the budget, especially export-oriented industries, which have borne the brunt of the higher US tariffs being imposed last year by the Trump administration.

On January 29, 2026, Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2025-26, a comprehensive snapshot of the country’s macro-economic situation, in Parliament, setting the stage for the budget and showing the government’s roadmap. The survey projected that India’s economy is expected to grow 6.8%-7.2% in FY27, underscoring resilience even as global economic uncertainty persists.

Budget 2026 Expectations

Expectations across key sectors are taking shape as stakeholders look to the Budget for support that sustains growth, strengthens jobs and eases financial pressures:

Taxpayers & Households: Many taxpayers want practical improvements to the income tax structure that preserve simplicity while supporting long-term financial planning — including broader deductions for home loan interest and diversified retirement savings options.

New Tax Regime vs Old Tax Regime | New Income Tax Rules | Income Tax 2026

Businesses & Industry: With industrial output and investment showing resilience, firms are looking for policies that bolster capital formation, ease compliance, and expand infrastructure spending — especially in manufacturing and technology-driven sectors that promise jobs and exports.

Startups & Innovation: The startup ecosystem expects incentives around employee stock options and capital access, along with regulatory tweaks that encourage risk capital and talent retention without increasing compliance burdens.

Also See: Stock Market Updates Today

The Budget speech will be broadcast live here and on all other news channels. You can also catch all the updates about Budget 2026 on News18.com. News18 will provide detailed live blog updates on the Budget speech, and political, industry, and market reactions.

We are providing a full, detailed coverage of the union budget 2026 here, with a lot of insights, experts’ views and analyses. Stay tuned with us to get latest updates.

Also Read: Budget 2026 Live Streaming

Here are the Live Updates of Union Budget 2026:



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Budget 2026: Cabinet gives green signal to Union Budget 2026–27

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Budget 2026: Cabinet gives green signal to Union Budget 2026–27


New Delhi: The Cabinet on Sunday approved the Union Budget 2026-27 during a meeting in Parliament chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A meeting of the Union Cabinet was held at Sansad Bhawan at 10 a.m., and after the Cabinet’s approval, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proceeded to Parliament to present the Budget.

Earlier, FM Sitharaman met President Droupadi Murmu and offered her a copy of the digital budget. The President also offered ‘dahi-cheeni’ (curd and sugar) to Sitharaman when she arrived at the Rashtrapati Bhavan. The Finance Minister was seen carrying her trademark ‘bahi-khata’, a tablet wrapped in a red-coloured cloth bearing a golden-coloured national emblem on it.

Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary, Chief Economic Advisor Dr V. Anantha Nageswaran, Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman Ravi Agrawal and other officials were seen accompanying the Finance Minister. Sitharaman was set to present her ninth consecutive Union Budget in the Lok Sabha. In 2021, she switched to using a digital tablet to carry the Budget papers, further promoting a modern and eco-friendly approach.

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The ‘bahi-khata’ is a red pouch that holds the digital tablet containing the Budget documents. This year, Sitharaman opted for a deep maroon Kanjeevaram saree from Tamil Nadu. The saree featured a deep maroon base with a contrasting border and subtle gold detailing, paired with a yellow blouse.

The Budget is likely to strike a deft balance of sustaining growth momentum and maintaining fiscal consolidation. It also needs to address near-term challenges emanating from unprecedented geopolitical flux, said economists. According to economists, the budget is likely to focus more on capital expenditure, especially in sectors deemed to be strategically important owing to prevailing geopolitical compulsions.

While the FY26 Budget was more tilted towards stimulating middle-class consumption with tax reliefs, the FY27 Budget’s approach to stimulating consumption will be selective, they added.



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