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‘Indian Economy Continues To Gain Momentum Despite Uncertain Global Outlook’: FinMin Report
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‘Demand conditions across rural and urban India strengthened with…GST reforms and the festive season,’ the finance ministry says in latest Monthly Economic Review.
The finance ministry said the combination of macroeconomic stability, regulatory reforms, and ongoing structural initiatives is expected to have a positive multiplier effect on economic activity.
Despite global economic uncertainties and trade disruptions, India’s economy has continued to gather strength, supported by robust domestic demand, strong manufacturing and services activity, and contained inflation, according to the finance ministry’s Monthly Economic Review for September 2025 released on October 27.
“Amidst…uncertain global outlook, India’s economy continues to gain momentum. Demand conditions across rural and urban India strengthened with the implementation of the GST reforms and the festive season, coinciding with industry reports signalling robust growth in sales, particularly in sectors such as automobiles. On the supply side, the manufacturing and services sectors expanded healthily. Taking into account the higher-than-anticipated growth in Q1 FY26 and steady upward trends visible in Q2 FY26, India’s growth forecasts for FY26 have been upgraded,” the finance ministry said in the report.
The report noted that economic activity worldwide has remained steady over the past few months, despite adverse trade policy disruptions. As a result, global economic growth this year is now expected to fare better than initially feared. This is reflected in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) upward revision of the global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2 per cent in October 2025, compared with 3 per cent in July 2025 and 2.8 per cent in April 2025. Several transitory factors, such as a lower effective tariff rate in the US and frontloading of trade, have contributed to propping up growth. However, this resilience masks underlying structural weaknesses which are coming to the fore, leaving projections for global growth in 2026 broadly unchanged since July 2025.
The IMF now expects India’s real GDP to grow 6.6% in FY26, while the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projects an even higher 6.8% growth, reflecting upgrades of 20 and 30 basis points, respectively.
Inflation Under Control, Price Stability Expected to Continue
The report highlighted that inflation remains well within control, aided by continued deflation in food categories. Retail headline inflation eased to 1.54% in September 2025, bringing the Q2 FY26 average to 1.7%.
Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) stood at 4.6% in September, with prices of non-food items staying stable. The ministry said, barring any adverse weather events or supply chain shocks, price stability is likely to prevail.
The RBI expects inflation to average 1.8% in Q3 FY26, with a slight uptick in Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 as base effects fade.
RBI Measures Support Liquidity and Credit Flow
The finance ministry credited the RBI’s liquidity management for ensuring adequate credit availability to support growth. The transmission of monetary policy into money and credit markets remains effective, reflecting the central bank’s calibrated approach.
It added that the RBI’s recent regulatory and development policies demonstrate a “balanced response” to evolving macroeconomic conditions — combining prudence with reforms aimed at strengthening banks, boosting credit flow, simplifying forex management, and internationalising the Indian Rupee.
External Trade Remains Resilient
India’s external sector has also shown resilience despite a volatile global trade environment. Total exports of goods and services grew 4.4% year-on-year in the first half of FY26 to reach USD 413.3 billion.
While merchandise exports rose 3%, services exports expanded 6.1% during the same period. Core merchandise exports, excluding petroleum and gems & jewellery, grew a strong 7.5%, underscoring the competitiveness of India’s manufacturing base.
Labour Market, Reforms, and Innovation Drive Growth
The government’s emphasis on skill development and job creation has helped stabilise the labour market in H1 FY26, with rising labour force participation and employment growth in both industry and services.
The introduction of GST 2.0 is expected to further stimulate consumption and investment, creating a multiplier effect on employment and demand.
The report also highlighted the government’s focus on research and innovation to boost global competitiveness. The Promotion of Research & Innovation in Pharma-MedTech Sector (PRIP) scheme, launched by the Department of Pharmaceuticals, will provide around ₹11,000 crore in support for R&D projects. The initiative aims to transform India’s Pharma-MedTech sector into a globally competitive, innovation-driven ecosystem by funding early-stage research and promoting flexible collaborations focused on public health priorities.
Outlook: Growth Momentum to Sustain
The finance ministry said the combination of macroeconomic stability, regulatory reforms, and ongoing structural initiatives is expected to have a positive multiplier effect on economic activity. These efforts, it said, will support domestic demand, enhance resilience, and help sustain India’s growth momentum despite a challenging global environment.
“Looking ahead, the lower GST rate is expected to support a positive demand outlook by reducing the tax burden on consumers and businesses, stimulating consumption and investment across sectors and boosting employment generation in the economy. Moreover, a strong performance in the industries and services sector, along with a stable labour market, will further enhance domestic demand. Nevertheless, global uncertainties warrant caution and will continue to affect external demand, presenting downside risks to the growth outlook,” the ministry said.
The implementation of various growth-enhancing structural reforms and government initiatives, including GST 2.0, is expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts of these external challenges, it added.
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h…Read More
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h… Read More
October 27, 2025, 13:22 IST
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At a time when global markets are witnessing high volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties, the hike in securities transaction tax (STT) on derivatives trades hit investor sentiment on Dalal Street on the Budget day. This in turn led to a sharp sell-off that pulled the sensex down by nearly 1,500 points—its biggest points loss on a Budget day—to close at 80,773 points. The sell-off also left investors poorer by Rs 9.4 lakh crore, the biggest Budget day loss in BSE’s market capitalisation.The day’s trading was marked by high volatility. The sensex rallied over 400 points as FM started her speech, fell about 1,100 points after the STT hike proposal was announced, partially recovered by mid-session to trade 600 points down on the day and then sold-off to close below the 81K mark for the first time in four months.On the NSE, Nifty too treaded a similar path to close 495 points (2%) lower at 24,825 points. Fund managers and market players feel the day’s sell-off was overdone, compounded by the absence of most institutional players since it was a Sunday. “The market’s reaction (to the hike in STT rates) was a bit overdone, although the decision itself was unexpected,” said Taher Badshah, President & Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Mutual Fund. “I think markets should settle down in 2-3 days.” Badshah said the Budget was in line with govt’s set path of the past few years, showing a conservative approach to setting targets.“The revenue and expenditure targets for FY27 are achievable. And since the rate of inflation is lower now, the nominal GDP growth rate of 10% may turn out to be on the higher side as inflation normalises during the year,” the top fund manager said. In Sunday’s market, of the 30 sensex stocks, 26 closed in the red. Among index constituents, Reliance Industries, SBI and ICICI Bank contributed the most to the day’s loss. Buying in software services majors Infosys and TCS cushioned the slide. In all, 2,444 stocks closed in the red compared to 1,699 that closed in the green, BSE data showed.STT hike aimed at curbing F&O speculation The decision to raise securities transaction tax (STT) for trading in equity derivatives means trading futures & options (F&O) will be more expensive from April 1. STT on futures trading rises from 0.02% to 0.05% now, and on options premium and exercise of options to 0.15% from 0.1% and 0.125% respectively. This could more than double statutory costs of trading F&O contracts.While the move is to curb excessive speculation by retail traders who mostly suffer losses, investors sold stocks of those companies that derive a large portion of their turnover from this segment. Stock price of Angel One crashed nearly 9%, BSE crashed 8.1%, Billionbrains Garage Ventures that runs the Groww trading platform, lost 5.1% and Nuvama Wealth Management lost 7.3%. STT hike follows a Sebi survey that showed that 91% of the retail investors lost money in the F&O market with average loss per investor surpassing Rs 1 lakh per year. Institutional and some high net worth players took home most of the profits from the segment.18% GST on brokerage for FPIs removedThe Budget proposed to do away with 18% GST charged on the brokerage that foreign portfolio investors pay in India. Among the host of changes to the GST laws that the finance minister proposed, one was abolishing clause (b) of sub-section (8) of section 13 of the Integrated Goods and Services Tax Act, 2017. This is being “omitted so as to provide that the place of supply for ‘intermediary services’ will be determined as per the default provision under section 13(2) of the IGST Act,” the Budget proposal said.
Buying property from an NRI? Worried about obtaining TAN? Not anymore. To relax the compliance burden, the Budget has proposed that resident individuals and HUFs need not have a Tax Deduction and Collection Account Number (TAN) if they are purchasing a property from a non-resident Indian (NRI). The amendment will take effect from Oct 1, 2026.Under the proposed framework, resident individuals or HUFs can report the tax deducted at source (TDS) by quoting PAN, as is done when the transactions are between two residents. Presently, if a person buys an immovable property from a resident seller, the person is not required to obtain TAN to deduct tax at source. However, where the seller of the immovable property is a non-resident, the buyer is required to obtain TAN to deduct tax at source.Ameet Patel, partner at Manohar Chowdhry & Associates, said this used to be a detailed process. “At present, if a resident were to purchase an immovable property from an NRI, there is no separate relaxation regarding compliance with TDS responsibilities. As a result, in such cases, the buyer needs to obtain a TAN, register on the portal, and then deduct TDS u/s. 195, and pay to the govt. Under section 195, as with all other regular TDS sections, a quarterly e-TDS statement is required. A buyer would need professional help for all this.”Hinesh Doshi, CA, welcomed the move. “There used to be an unnecessary compliance burden due to this. While the process to obtain TAN is simple, people used to obtain TAN for just one transaction. So, this is a good riddance.”
The former One Direction member-turned-solo artist appears on the Sunday Times list for the first time.
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