Business
Irish economy at risk from ‘global shocks’, ESRI report warns
Ireland’s reliance on multinationals and international exports means “global shocks” pose “a great challenge for the Irish economy”, a new report has claimed.
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) study looked at what might happen with the Irish economy over the next decade.
The think tank describes the outlook as “relatively favourable” but the report authors stressed it is a projection, not a forecast, and said “the assumption that nothing will move the economy from its current trajectory is unrealistic”.
The report – entitled Ireland’s medium-term economic outlook: Risks and opportunities – warns the country is vulnerable to external risks and “unforeseen shocks”.
It said this is a particular issue because budget surpluses are based on windfall corporation tax receipts and “windfall taxes by definition could disappear rapidly”, meaning a five billion euro surplus could become a deficit of 13 billion euro.
The presence of multinational corporations “remains a tremendous positive for the Irish economy”, the report said, but it also highlights the importance of domestic businesses to help “mitigate” economic risk.
The report focused on a number of scenarios which could impact Ireland’s economy in the near future including: a global slowdown, a loss of competitiveness between Ireland and its trading partners, and an exodus of multinational companies and a change in the productivity levels of Irish-owned firms.
The report also found Ireland’s economy has had a ”remarkable performance” over the last 10 years, despite international and domestic challenges including Brexit and the pandemic.
It said this had led to employment and population growth “all of which should be celebrated”, but also that the speed of population growth after “a period of low public investment following the great recession” has contributed to the housing crisis.
ESRI director Professor Martina Lawless said, without any shocks, the projections show “a reasonably positive continuation of growth, although at a more moderate level than it has been over the last number of years”.
It also shows “a number of fairly plausible external risks could have significant repercussions on the economy”.
She said the most “impactful” ways to offset the risk would be “rebalancing the composition of the economy and supporting the productivity growth of the Irish-owned firms”.
She also noted that while the report covers the next decade, there are “much longer-term challenges” including an ageing population and climate change which are projected to hit economic activity in the mid to late 2030s.
She described the next 10 years as an “opportunity” for policies to promote the “fundamental building blocks that support economic activity”.
These include encouraging smaller firms to invest in research and development, building the country’s skills base and building up public infrastructure where there are “big deficits at the moment in housing, healthcare, transport and other utilities”.
Business
Who Is Aman Jain, Meta India’s New Head Of Public Policy?
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Meta India appoints Aman Jain as Head of Public Policy. Formerly at Amazon India and Google.
Meta India Appoints Aman Jain as New Head of Public Policy
Meta India has appointed Aman Jain as the new head of Public Policy to lead the company’s policy strategy and engagements with the government in India. He will join the company early next year, according to the press release.
He is currently the Director of Public Policy at Amazon India, where he leads policy strategy, stakeholder engagement and regulatory work. He has been in this role since November 2023.
Before joining Amazon, Aman spent over seven years at Google, holding multiple leadership positions in public policy and industry partnerships.
Across these roles, he led major engagements with ministries, regulators, industry bodies and global teams—especially around technology policy, fintech, digital ecosystems, competition, data governance and online safety.
Before his corporate roles, Aman also served in AIESEC International for over seven years, eventually becoming the President & CEO (Global). He led a global team across 110+ countries, created the mid-term organisational vision, oversaw governance reforms, and represented youth voices at global platforms like COP15 and the World Business Summit on Climate Change.
He has also led a private enterprise as Director at Peter & David Enterprises Pvt Ltd.
Jain completed his dual Master’s in Public Administration and International Relations.
Simon Milner, Vice President of Policy, Asia Pacific, India, is a strategic market for Meta. As the country’s digital economy accelerates across areas such as AI, emerging tech and the creator economy, Meta aims to help build a more inclusive, trusted, and future-ready internet ecosystem for India.
I’m pleased to welcome Aman as Head of Public Policy in India. His extensive experience in public policy and technology, will help Meta be an even more effective partner to regulators and industry stakeholders in developing an enabling policy environment. He will also be a strong addition to Meta’s APAC Policy leadership team.
December 12, 2025, 11:25 IST
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Business
Pakistan Confirms Agricultural Tax Increase, Development Cuts to IMF – SUCH TV
These measures are part of Pakistan’s plan to successfully complete the second review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and unlock the third $1 billion tranche, along with the first $200 million tranche under the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
The IMF’s recently released staff report highlights that Pakistan has achieved most targets under the programme, though it projects that the country’s balance of payment gap could widen to $3.253 billion by 2029–30, signaling potential need for another IMF programme in the future.
The report outlines contingency measures the government plans to adopt if revenues fall short by December 2025.
These include raising excises on fertilisers and pesticides by five percentage points, introducing levies on high-value sugary items, and broadening the GST base.
In addition, Islamabad is ready to reduce or postpone spending in response to lower revenues.
Other commitments include full deregulation of the sugar sector, continued tariff adjustments in the power sector, and measures to reduce system losses and costs.
The government will also roll out point-of-sale systems for 40,000 large retailers nationwide over the next two years, while all provinces will move toward harmonised sales tax procedures.
The IMF report notes that, in the current fiscal year, Pakistan will restrict spending on new development schemes to 10% of the PSDP, prioritising completion of ongoing projects worth around Rs2.5 trillion.
From the next fiscal year, greater focus will be placed on climate-related initiatives.
Public procurement is set to transition to digital e-pads, with the Auditor General required to submit a compliance report to the president by March 2026.
Under social protection measures, the Kafalat cash transfer under the BISP programme will rise to Rs14,500 per quarter from January 2026, expanding coverage to 10.2 million families.
Biometric verification for payments will remain mandatory, and the government plans to launch the long-awaited e-wallet system by June 2026.
On energy reforms, the IMF has noted that the government has already decided to shift annual tariff rebasing from July to January 2026. Last fiscal year, the circular debt stock was reduced to Rs1.614 trillion.
By January 2026, the government aims to settle Rs1.2 trillion owed to commercial banks, out of which Rs660 billion will go to Pakistan Private Holdings Limited and the rest to the Central Power Purchasing Agency.
The plan also includes eliminating Rs128 billion in interest payments owed to IPPs and keeping the circular debt at zero inflow until fiscal year 2031.
The Fund highlights that 5.2 million income tax returns were filed in FY2024, while the number is expected to reach 7 million in FY2025.
It acknowledges Pakistan’s progress on stabilisation, noting improvements in foreign exchange reserves, which have risen to $14.5 billion, and a 1.3% primary surplus delivered in FY2025.
Fiscal performance remains strong, with the primary surplus recorded at 1.3%, and the IMF report says this surplus was achieved in line with the programme target.
According to the report, within one year, foreign exchange reserves increased from $9.4 billion to $14.5 billion, and reserves are projected to rise further in the coming years.
The IMF says Pakistan has achieved its first current account surplus in 14 years and terms the primary surplus target for fiscal year 2025–26 achievable. Reforms to increase revenues and reduce debt are described as ongoing.
On inflation, the IMF notes that inflation increased due to food prices following the floods but says this inflationary pressure is temporary. Inflation is projected to ease to 7% in the current fiscal year.
The IMF has stressed maintaining a tight monetary policy to keep inflation under control. It also says exchange rate flexibility is necessary to absorb shocks.
At the same time, the IMF warns that the 2022 floods highlighted Pakistan’s deep climate vulnerability, having affected seven million people and claiming nearly 1,000 lives, while causing extensive losses to infrastructure, homes and livestock.
The report says that following the floods, the importance of reforms and policy continuity has increased further, and it urges stronger climate adaptation measures, improved water management and disaster preparedness.
The global lender has also stressed sustained reforms in taxation, governance, state-owned enterprises and energy to secure long-term growth.
It says Pakistan must widen the tax net, simplify tax procedures, ensure data transparency, and maintain a strict monetary policy to keep inflation stable. Strengthening forex market transparency and reducing policy uncertainty are also essential.
The IMF report adds that progress has been made in improving the power sector through energy tariff adjustments, but further reforms are required to stabilise the sector.
It also notes that improving governance in state-owned enterprises and the investment environment is important, and that trade and investment reforms are essential for sustainable growth.
It says RSF reforms will help improve flood risk management and water governance.
The report concludes that Pakistan’s economic recovery remains fragile but is moving in the right direction under the current programme.
Stronger reforms and consistent policy implementation, it notes, will be critical for lowering debt, raising revenue and sustaining growth in the years ahead.
Business
A new high on Wall Street! Dow and S&P 500 set new records; Nasdaq dragged down by Oracle results – The Times of India
Wall Street closed on a split note on Thursday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 seized spotlight with their new record highs while Nasdaq traded in red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 climbed to fresh milestones on Thursday, lifted by investors still riding the momentum set off by the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. The Dow rose 1.3%, driven by strong gains in banks and industrial stocks, while the S&P 500 also pushed into record territory, ending at 0.21% gain. The rally followed an upbeat session in Europe and a mixed day in Asia, with global markets continuing to respond positively to the Fed’s less hawkish tone on Wednesday (local time). But the Nasdaq’s 0.3% dip highlighed the market’s lingering nerves around AI-linked valuations. The Nasdaq, however, was weighed down by a sharp slump in Oracle shares that reignited long-standing worries about the soaring cost of artificial intelligence bets.“Even as investors were reassured by the Fed’s latest rate cut, familiar concerns about AI are still very much top of mind right now,” Deutsche Bank managing director Jim Reid told AFP.The concerns resurfaced after Oracle revealed late on Wednesday that its quarterly revenue had fallen short of expectations and that it had ramped up spending on data centres to expand AI capacity. The stock sank 10.8% by the close, having earlier fallen even further.Dave Grecsek of Aspiriant Wealth Management said the reaction highlighted the market’s discomfort with the scale of AI-related investments.“There’s still a lot of apprehension about how sustainable some of these capital spending plans are, what the return on those investments are, and especially now that they’re financed with debt,” he said, as cited by AFP.Last month, global markets briefly faltered as investors were cautious by the AI bubble concept, questioning whether the massive sums flowing into artificial intelligence risked inflating a bubble that could eventually burst.The Fed’s rate cut, its third in a row, was anticipated, but an unusually high number of dissenting votes has clouded expectations over where borrowing costs are headed next.“Investors have shrugged off the Fed’s latest reduction in US borrowing costs as it is becoming harder to guess where rates might go next,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.Fed officials remain split on the outlook for 2026, including whether more cuts will be needed and how many. Still, eToro US analyst Bret Kenwell noted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed out that none of the policymakers foresee rate hikes in 2026 in their baseline scenario.“The lack of an outright hawkish tone from the Fed combined with its third consecutive rate cut could pave the way for a potential year-end rally in equities, provided that next week’s macroeconomic data doesn’t derail the recent bullish momentum,” Kenwell said.The reduction brings interest rates to their lowest level in three years as policymakers attempt to shore up a labour market that has shown signs of strain throughout 2025.The dollar weakened while oil prices slipped following the decision.Among corporate movers, Disney added 2.4% after unveiling a three-year licensing agreement with OpenAI, giving users the ability to create short AI-generated videos featuring popular Disney characters.
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