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Limited economic impact? Here’s how the Middle East crisis is impacting job market and your household bills – for now – The Times of India

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Limited economic impact? Here’s how the Middle East crisis is impacting job market and your household bills – for now – The Times of India


The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has triggered ripples for economies and sectors across the globe. Even so, India’s economy still appears firm, with only a few early signs of pressure, according to a recent report by HDFC Bank’s treasury research team.The report, Macro Billboard: 40 Charts, Early Signals dated April 20, 2026, says that spending by households has not been hit much by rising energy prices yet. However, early signs of caution are visible, as consumer surveys show people are starting to feel less confident.The jobs picture is mixed. The formal job market is improving, but rural unemployment is slowly rising. The report warns that if more people move back to villages, it could push down rural wages and also lead to worker shortages in industrial areas.

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No Fuel Shortage: Govt Assures 100% Domestic Gas Supply As India’s LPG Demand Falls 13% In March

Manufacturing is starting to feel the impact of higher energy costs, although it was performing well earlier. The services sector, however, remains mostly unaffected for now. Some impact is seen in sea-port cargo and air passenger traffic, but other indicators like air cargo, bank activity, commercial vehicle sales and GST collections still show steady growth.The report expects the overall impact of the conflict to remain limited in the last quarter of FY26. It states, “We expect the economic impact of the war to be limited in Q4 FY26 (with the impact likely to be felt only in March and with momentum being strong in January and February) and do not see a material downside to the growth estimate of 7.3-7.4% for Q4 FY26.”It also warns of risks ahead, mainly due to supply issues. “Looking ahead, while ‘peak uncertainty’ seems to have moderated around the war for now, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to present downside risks due to supply disruptions to the growth outlook for Q1 FY27 and beyond.”Recent data also shows that demand is still strong. Even though it has slowed after the festive season, it remains better than levels seen in 2024 and early 2025 in both rural and urban areas. GST rate cuts have supported this recovery into 2026, with March GST collections crossing Rs 2 lakh crore, up 8.8%. Vehicle sales, including two-wheelers and passenger cars, have grown by over 20%.Rural demand also looks strong, helped by higher rabi sowing, strong tractor sales growth, and lower demand for MNREGA work. Inflation remains under control at 3.4%, which is helping reduce the impact of higher energy prices on spending.Overall, while some early signs of stress are appearing, the economy remains stable for now, with risks mainly coming from possible supply disruptions in the near future.



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I was left with an £8,000 vet bill when my insurer cancelled my pet policy

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I was left with an £8,000 vet bill when my insurer cancelled my pet policy


Tesco Pet Insurance, who provided the cover, says “the cost of claims is one of a number of factors that can affect the price of a policy at renewal” and also noted Tilly’s age had been reflected in the quote. It says the couple had a more comprehensive policy, which typically costs more than basic levels of cover, and that alternative options were presented to Fawcett and Neild.



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Britain ‘mustn’t cut ourselves off from China trade opportunities’, CBI chief warns

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Britain ‘mustn’t cut ourselves off from China trade opportunities’, CBI chief warns


The UK must not “cut ourselves off” from trade opportunities in China despite security and business risks, the head of the Confederation for British Industry has warned.

CBI chief Rain Newton-Smith highlighted that British businesses see increased trade with Chinese firms as an opportunity to drive growth.

Her remarks came as business leaders were questioned by MPs on Parliament’s Business and Trade Select Committee regarding the UK’s economic relationship with China.

Last December, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer admitted China poses security threats to the UK but urged for greater business ties.

Ms Newton-Smith, chief executive of one of the UK’s largest business groups, was positive about the Government’s engagement with China.

“You can’t have a growth strategy without a strategy for China,” she said.

Starmer admitted China poses security threats to the UK but urged for greater business ties (Ben Whitley/PA)

“China has the biggest contribution to global growth, is the third largest trading partner, and the world’s largest consumer market.

“The UK is second largest exporter of trade and services.

“We are mindful as all businesses are of security risks but it is really important that we have a strategy towards China.

“This Government has increased the economic engagement with China and including business within this does help us as a country.”

She added: “If we think about the future economy, there is a huge market in China and I think we mustn’t cut ourselves off from some of the opportunities there, even if in some areas there are difficult conversations and negotiations that need to be had.”

Peter Burnett, chief executive of the China-Britain Business Council, told the committee: “There are risks associated with technology advancement, AI, industrial development that they need to assess.

“Increasingly you will find them saying that they need to engage more in China to understand those risks and to develop some of the technologies along some of those risks themselves.”



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Trump says he’d be disappointed if Fed pick doesn’t cut rates; Warsh vows to be ‘independent actor’ – The Times of India

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Trump says he’d be disappointed if Fed pick doesn’t cut rates; Warsh vows to be ‘independent actor’ – The Times of India


Donald Trump, left, and Kevin Warsh

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he would be disappointed if his nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, does not cut interest rates right away after taking office if confirmed by the Senate. Trump, during an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” also said “we have to find out” about the construction costs of the new Federal Reserve building.Warsh, a former Federal Reserve official and financier, is currently facing Senate confirmation hearings where he has stressed his independence from political pressure.“The president never once asked me to commit to any particular interest rate decision, and nor would I agree to it if he had,” Kevin Warsh said under questioning by the Senate Banking Committee, as quoted by LA Times. “I will be an independent actor if confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve.”Warsh told lawmakers that fighting inflation would be one of his main priorities if confirmed.“Congress tasked the Fed with the mission to ensure price stability, without excuse or equivocation, argument or anguish,” Warsh said. “Inflation is a choice, and the Fed must take responsibility for it.”The comments come as investors closely watch his confirmation hearing, with inflation remaining at 3.3% annually and global tensions, including the war in Iran pushing up gas prices, adding pressure on the economy. Higher inflation typically leads the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady or raise them rather than cut them, as rate changes affect mortgages, auto loans, and business borrowing.Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee accused Warsh of shifting his stance on interest rates over time, supporting higher rates under Democratic presidents and lower rates during Trump’s presidency.Warsh, if confirmed, would take over at a time when inflation pressures make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, even as Trump continues to push for lower borrowing costs. Trump has repeatedly urged rate cuts and has long clashed with current Fed chair Jerome Powell over monetary policy. Powell has also been the subject of a Department of Justice criminal probe after refusing Trump’s requests for faster rate cuts. Trump told CNBC that he does not plan to pressure the Justice Department to end that probe.



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