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Lucky or unlucky: How have Premier League teams fared this season?

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Lucky or unlucky: How have Premier League teams fared this season?


It’s long been said that, over the course of a 38-game Premier League season, a team’s luck will even out. As the old adage goes, “you play every team twice,” and that’s true, but refereeing decisions, injuries and managerial changes can each have a huge impact on a club’s season — either positively or negatively.

So, with that in mind, we thought we’d take a nonscientific look at which Premier League teams have been favored by fortune or fallen foul of it. There’s no magic formula for something as ethereal and fleeting as luck, but here’s how some have fared in each of these three key areas:

  • 1) Injury issues: This is not about a couple of injuries. We’re looking at situations where multiple star players were missing or entire position groups were out. After all, if you’re lucky enough to play Chelsea without star player Cole Palmer, or catch Arsenal without Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard, then your experience of playing them will be very different to that of another team.

  • 2) Managerial changes: The “new manager bounce” theory suggests that it’s unlucky to be the first team up against a refreshed side that have just sacked a struggling boss — although in one case, sacking the manager made a team demonstrably worse.

  • 3) Confirmed refereeing / VAR errors: This is more tangible as there have been six confirmed errors this season so far, so we’ve looked at who came out on the right and wrong side of each one.

After looking at these areas, the results may go some way to explaining why some clubs have performed above or below expectations, adding context to the 11 Premier League gameweeks we’ve seen so far.


Injury issues

LUCKY: They’ve faced teams with a lot of injuries

LIVERPOOL

Liverpool won their first five Premier League games on the spin, but the prevailing narrative around that run was that they were lucky to do so as their performances weren’t really matching up and they relied on a lot of late goals. Perhaps one factor in that fortuitous run was opponents’ injury issues, as they faced some severely undercooked teams.

Indeed, they kicked off the campaign with a 4-2 win over AFC Bournemouth, who were missing so many midfielders they could barely put a functioning unit together. (They’d also built a brand-new backline in the transfer window after several players, including Dean Huijsen, Milos Kerkez and Ilya Zabarnyi left in the summer.) Two weeks later, Liverpool won 1-0 at Anfield against an Arsenal side not only missing Saka and Ødegaard, but that then saw key center back William Saliba limp off after only five minutes.

The Reds are also one of a number of clubs who have had the benefit of playing against a Chelsea side without Palmer, although they lost the game 2-1 in the last minute anyway.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Forest have also benefitted from some injury luck too, although you might struggle to believe it given their league position of 19th. They opened up the season with a 3-1 win over a Brentford side who were missing talismanic midfielder Mikkel Damsgaard, then a month later lost 3-0 to an Arsenal side missing Saka and Ødegaard.

They were given a golden chance to beat Chelsea after the October international break, as the Blues were missing Palmer and Enzo Fernández and had to limit Moisés Caicedo to 45 minutes, but still lost 3-0.

If only they’d managed to convert more of their lucky situations into actual points.

UNLUCKY: They’ve had a lot of injuries

ARSENAL

Arsenal’s position at the top of the Premier League table is made all the more impressive by the fact that manager Mikel Arteta has been without several key players for portions of the opening stretch. The Gunners lost their first big game of the season 1-0 away to Liverpool, but that was hardly surprising given they had to do without Saka, Ødegaard and Saliba.

They also faced Manchester City without Ødegaard and got just 45 minutes out of Saka, who was recovering from the problem that kept him out of the Liverpool clash. They faced a similar situation away to Crystal Palace, only it was Saliba who could only manage 45 minutes. Then, just before the November international break, they faced Sunderland at the Stadium of Light without a recognized striker, as Viktor Gyökeres joined Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus in the treatment room and left Mikel Merino up front as a makeshift center forward.

FULHAM

Five losses in their past six league games have left Fulham hovering precariously above the relegation zone. Questions are starting to be raised about how, and why, this has happened — and the truth is that it’s down to a decent portion of it is bad luck when it comes to injuries.

Marco Silva has had to battle through several games this season with no recognized striker at all, as both Raúl Jiménez and Rodrigo Muniz have been injured. They’ve also had major defensive issues to contend with: left back Antonee Robinson has been mostly absent, while center back Joachim Andersen limped off in the 42nd minute of the 1-0 home loss to Arsenal, meaning the club’s entire first-choice backline and midfield general Saša Lukić were not on the pitch to finish the game.

The Cottagers have been one of the worst injury-affected sides in the league this season — and to rub salt in the wound, we’ll be revisiting them in the VAR section later on, too.

CHELSEA

Finally, Chelsea have battled serious injury problems already this season and have done remarkably well to grind out results anyway. While it’s true they have a massive squad — and therefore should be better equipped to absorb absentees — they were dealt an impossible hand by the scheduling of the summer’s Club World Cup, with only a few weeks of preseason training.

The Blues been hit particularly hard in two areas: central defense and central midfield. Palmer has missed eight league games so far this season, Romeo Lavia has missed seven, while Dário Essugo has undergone surgery on his thigh and been largely absent as a result. This has stretched the club to the limit in the center, and it’s impressive that they managed to beat Nottingham Forest 3-0 without all of the above and Fernández.

Meanwhile, by the end of their gritty 2-1 win over Liverpool, all but one of their center backs were injured: That’s Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana, Tosin Adarabioyo, Trevoh Chalobah, Josh Acheampong and Benoît Badiashile.


Managerial changes

Through 11 games so far, there have been four managerial changes: Two have been made by Nottingham Forest, one by West Ham, and one by Wolves, who are yet to play a game with new man Rob Edwards at the helm.

Logic would suggest that means three teams have had the misfortune of colliding with the fabled “new manager bounce” — but that’s not actually true, as one of these changes only served to make matters worse.

LUCKY: They’ve faced a team in a managerial crisis

ARSENAL

Forest replaced Nuno Espirito Santo, who was beloved by the fans and players, with former Tottenham boss Ange Postecoglou after three games. It created an immediate downturn in atmosphere and a playing-style crisis, meaning Arsenal were actually fortunate to be next up. The Gunners hammered Forest 3-0.

BOURNEMOUTH

Because they are such a mess, just 39 days and five Premier League games later, Forest sacked Postecoglou and brought in Sean Dyche. The former Everton and Burnley manager began his Forest career with a visit to Bournemouth and lost 2-0, so we’re considering them lucky to have faced a team in such a state.

UNLUCKY: They fell foul of the ‘new manager bounce’

EVERTON

However, one club did struggle from an opponent’s switch of manager. West Ham moved quickly to appoint Nuno after Forest dispensed with him, and he immediately delivered a draw away to Everton. While that doesn’t seem too impressive on paper, it was their first point for a month, so the Toffees can feel aggrieved that they didn’t have Forest next on the fixture list.


Confirmed VAR errors

LUCKY: They’ve got away with some decisions
UNLUCKY: They’ve been punished by VAR unfairly

VAR was brought in to remove officiating mistakes from the game, but sadly some still creep through. In fact, it’s only made it more infuriating when one does, as referees are now given multiple chances to get the call right.

Six VAR errors have been confirmed by the KMI (key match incident) review panel this season. They are as follows:

LUCKY: AFC Bournemouth
UNLUCKY: Liverpool

– AFC Bournemouth should have opened up the campaign with an early red card, as Marcos Senesi’s hand denied Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitike a clear goal-scoring chance in the 13th minute. That said, Liverpool went on to win 4-2.

LUCKY: Chelsea
UNLUCKY: Fulham

– Fulham took the lead against local rivals Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in August thanks to a wonderful goal from Josh King, only for it to be incorrectly ruled out on a VAR review for a foul in the buildup. The Cottagers lost 2-0.

LUCKY: Everton
UNLUCKY: Wolves

– Wolves’ Hugo Bueno was tripped inside the box in the 71st minute against Everton and it should have been ruled a penalty. They were 3-1 down at the time and went on to lose 3-2.

LUCKY: Brentford
UNLUCKY: Manchester United

Manchester United were rightly stunned when Brentford’s Nathan Collins was only shown a yellow card for pulling Bryan Mbeumo back inside the box, not a red. It was the 72nd minute and United were 2-1 down; they went on to lose 3-1.

LUCKY: Chelsea
UNLUCKY: Brighton

Brighton & Hove Albion should have been awarded a penalty at Stamford Bridge when Chelsea defender Malo Gusto produced a high boot challenge on Yankuba Minteh in the box. It mattered little in the end, though, as the Seagulls went on to win.

LUCKY: Bournemouth
UNLUCKY: Crystal Palace

– AFC Bournemouth’s Marcos Senesi got away with another one in October, when his last man challenge on Crystal Palace’s Ismaïla Sarr was ruled a yellow on the field, but should have been a red. The Eagles were 2-0 down at the time, but roared back to 3-3 regardless.

CONCLUSION

So, is there any conclusion we can draw over which teams have been luckiest or unluckiest across the board? It’s not an exact science, but Arsenal and Bournemouth have certainly ridden their luck in various aspects so far this season, and that has helped their rise up the Premier League table.

Chelsea have had it both ways, while 15th-place Fulham can point to both injuries and VAR as reasons their season hasn’t gone exactly to plan.

Let’s see where we’re at once another third of the campaign has passed, and what has changed.



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Haaland, Rice, Semenyo: Who is your Premier League Player of the Year?

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Haaland, Rice, Semenyo: Who is your Premier League Player of the Year?


We’re fast approaching the business end of the 2025-26 Premier League season, and heading into March, everything is still very much to play for. The title race has coalesced into a two-team battle between leaders Arsenal and chasers Manchester City, while the push for Champions League soccer next season is neatly poised between several clubs — defending champions Liverpool are on the outside looking in, needing to close the gap to Aston Villa, Manchester United and Chelsea.

At the bottom end of the table, Wolves‘ fate appears certain (they are 17 points adrift from safety with just 10 games left) and, to a lesser extent, Burnley‘s too (eight points back with 11 to play), but the third and final relegation spot could go to any one of Nottingham Forest, Tottenham or Leeds United from here.

Equally hard to call is the race for the Premier League’s Player of the Year, with no clear-cut, stand-out candidate yet and plenty of stars making a clear case for the prize. So, with 10 matchdays left, we asked our regular Premier League reporters to make their picks for the top award, and why they are worthy.


Tom Hamilton: Sometimes it makes sense to go for the obvious option. If Manchester City win the league, then you could argue their standout player was one of Bernardo Silva (for his guile), Nico O’Reilly (for his adaptability and temperament) or new arrivals Gianluigi Donnarumma and Antoine Semenyo. But if you want the clear and obvious choice, then it’s Haaland, the man at the top of the scoring charts.

The Norway forward is in the middle of a relatively quiet spell for his club, but his 22 league goals have helped City to where they are. The big change for Haaland this year? He’s becoming more of an all-around contributor and his work rate is through the roof, to the extent that he has also notched seven assists, second only to Bruno Fernandes and one behind his best total of eight back in the 2022-23 campaign. That’s 29 goal contributions. Not bad.

Take City’s recent 2-1 win over Newcastle: Haaland had more touches of the ball than ever before (43), he made the third-most clearances for the team (after Rodri and Marc Guéhi) and won 12 duels, the most he has managed in a top-flight game. “He’s an incredible, generous player, so today is a performance, and I’ll never forget what Erling has done for us,” manager Pep Guardiola said afterward.

So be afraid, Premier League: Haaland is evolving into a more all-around player, and his goals and assists should see him deservedly crowned player of the season.

James Olley: With everything in the league still to play for, from title to top four to relegation, it’s too early to be conclusive about this, but Arsenal are top of the table at present, and Declan Rice has been the heartbeat of a team competing impressively on four fronts.

Only Martín Zubimendi (2,360) has played more outfield Premier League minutes for the Gunners than Rice’s 2,329, and Rice ranks second in the division for chances created (defined by Opta as key passes and assists) behind Bruno Fernandes. But he is about much more than stats. Rice drives the Arsenal team forward as he has developed into a complete midfielder, affecting the game in his box-to-box role while also proving an extremely efficient set piece taker.

If Arsenal are to keep the pace, it will largely be a result of Rice maintaining the level of form and influence he has shown so far.

Sam Tighe: When there’s no “obvious” pick like during this season, it can trick you into thinking there haven’t been any outstanding candidates. But as the group outlines, we’re hardly short of incredible individual campaigns, are we?

I’ll throw my support in for James’ pick of Rice. In a Premier League landscape where physicality, mobility and tenacity reign supreme, the 27-year-old is the division’s leading light. To put it into context, among Arsenal players, only Zubimendi (293.57 km) has covered more ground than Rice (285.48 km) this term, while among all Premier League central midfielders, only Sandro Tonali (33.37 km/h) has clocked a higher max speed than Rice (33.17 km/h).

Rice is fast and relentless; if the Gunners win the title, his frenzied, all-action style will symbolize their approach to doing so. Yet he also backs up those athletic traits with finesse where required. There are very few better corner takers in the sport right now, and there’s no doubt he’s steadily getting better at picking a pass through the lines.

Beth Lindop: It might seem preposterous to nominate a Liverpool player considering how abject they have been at times this season, but in terms of pure individual excellence, Szoboszlai would be my pick.

In the summer, there was a suggestion in some quarters that the Hungary international could lose his place in the team following the arrival of the £116 million playmaker, Florian Wirtz, from Bayer Leverkusen. However, Szoboszlai has this season established himself as the first name on Arne Slot’s team sheet, with his relentless running, tactical flexibility and, of course, his eye for a spectacular strike having kept the Reds’ campaign from descending into total disaster.

With 10 goals to his name already this season, Szoboszlai is well on course to surpass his career-best goal tally. He has also deputized admirably at right back amid Liverpool’s ongoing injury crisis, while his noticeable willingness to speak more frequently to the media is reflective of a player keen to assume more responsibility within the team and position himself as a future club captain.

Liverpool’s disappointing collective form means Szoboszlai will most likely miss out on individual accolades, but he should definitely be in the conversation.

Antoine Semenyo, FW, Manchester City (formerly at Bournemouth)

Mark Ogden: This is a tough one because there really hasn’t been an outstanding candidate so far this season, but my pick right now would be Semenyo. He was outstanding for Bournemouth during the first half of the season — his 10 Premier League goals kept Andoni Iraola on the tails of the top six for a while — but his performances meant it was inevitable he would move on in January, and he had a queue of heavyweight clubs wanting to sign him before he chose Manchester City.

Even though a deal was done and his release clause was triggered, Semenyo agreed to stay at Bournemouth for two extra games in January before making his move. No fuss, no drama: just a professional attitude and the perfect sign-off with a stoppage time winner against Spurs in his final game.

His form at City has been just as impressive, and he kept them in the title race during their midseason wobble with three goals in his first five games. So for performing at his top level for two clubs and showing professionalism throughout, I’m going for Semenyo.

Rob Dawson: There were genuine concerns about whether Brentford would be able to avoid relegation this season after losing manager Thomas Frank — as well as key players Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, Christian Nørgaard and Mark Flekken — in one summer. Goals were expected to be a particular problem after both Mbeumo and Wissa — who combined for 39 in the Premier League last season — moved on.

Frank’s replacement, Keith Andrews, deserves a lot of credit for turning this season into a push for Europe instead of a battle against the drop. But so too does Igor Thiago. His 17 league goals have cushioned the blow of losing Mbeumo and Wissa. It’s a fantastic return for a 24-year-old striker in his first full campaign in England after last season was ruined by injury.

Scoring goals in the toughest league in the world is a big ask, and Thiago has done it regularly. Unfortunately for Brentford, he has done so well that the inevitable question will be: How long can they keep him before he follows Mbeumo and Wissa out of the door?

Gab Marcotti: To me, it’s pretty simple. Aston Villa might be on the slide, but they’re still third, well ahead of Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea. And this is after a summer when they didn’t really add anybody of note and lost their sporting director, Monchi, as well. A lot of that is down to Rogers: He has started every game and has usually been a difference-maker each time.

Rogers doesn’t have the greatest supporting cast — certainly not compared to the other suggestions who are sure to crop up — and I think it’s fair to say that, without him, Villa would be midtable at best. Only four players have more open play goal involvements (non-penalty goals and assists) than he does this season, and all of them play for bigger and better-resourced sides: Haaland, Fernandes, Semenyo and João Pedro.

Throw in the fact that he invented Cole Palmer‘s goal celebration — they were teammates at City, and Palmer “borrowed” it from him — and to me he’s the obvious choice.

Arsenal logoMartín Zubimendi, MF, Arsenal

Julien Laurens: When Arsenal spent €60 million last summer to activate his release clause and recruit him from Real Sociedad, there were a lot of skeptics about his adaptation to the Premier League, his potential and even his talent, but there was also concern about his ability to take the Gunners to the next level. And yet, I think he has already proved all the doubters wrong.

It has not always been perfect, obviously — remember his mistake against Manchester United — but overall, he has been impressive. His ability to dictate the tempo of a game, his intelligence and his reading of the play have been outstanding. He has also scored five Premier League goals already, which is more than Szoboszlai, more than Rice and only three less than Rogers, who is a more advanced player, by the way. Some of his goals have also been key, such as the openers against Forest, Leeds and Sunderland, in keeping Arsenal on course for a potential first league title in over 20 years.

Zubimendi makes Rice and Jurriën Timber better, and there is still so much room for improvement from him as well. He has had such a great impact on the team that it’s worth celebrating.



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UConn rolls by 32 in Pitino’s biggest loss at St. John’s

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UConn rolls by 32 in Pitino’s biggest loss at St. John’s


HARTFORD, Conn. — Tarris Reed Jr. had 20 points, 11 rebounds and six blocks, and No. 6 UConn held 15th-ranked St. John’s to 20% shooting in a 72-40 blowout Wednesday night that snapped the Red Storm’s 13-game winning streak.

Alex Karaban added 14 points and five rebounds for the Huskies, who moved back into first place in the Big East by avenging an 81-72 loss to St. John’s at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 6.

St. John’s missed 12 consecutive shots in the first half and then its final 24 field goal attempts of the game as the Huskies (26-3, 16-2) romped to their most lopsided victory in series history.

“They’ve been playing so well, the streak that they were on. … So it was just our night,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said. “It just starts snowballing on you when you have a night like this. Obviously, we played really good defense on them, and I thought we demoralized them a little bit when the score gets where the score got. And I just think it was one of those nights where everything went great for us and everything went wrong for them. But we did a lot to make that happen.”

It was by far the largest defeat for the Red Storm in three seasons under Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino, and their fewest points in a game since scoring 40 against Notre Dame in March 2013. St. John’s had its largest loss as an AP-ranked team since March 15, 1960, when it fell to St. Bonaventure by 35.

For Pitino, it was his second-largest loss as the head coach of an AP-ranked team in his career, behind only a 33-point loss with then-No. 5 Louisville in February 2009.

“It’s probably only happened to me two times in my career. Once was in my first year at Kentucky when we went into Phog Allen [Fieldhouse] at Kansas, but I was playing with very much an inferior team with walk-ons, not with this type of team,” Pitino said, referring to a 55-point loss with an unranked Wildcats team in December 1989. “It’s all on me. I’m very disappointed in our performance, offensively especially, sharing the ball, moving the ball. It’s all on me.”

Solo Ball had 11 points and four assists for UConn, and Silas Demary Jr. provided seven points, eight rebounds and five assists.

Joson Sanon scored all 10 of his points in the first half for St. John’s (22-6, 15-2), which finished 11-of-56 from the field and fell a half-game behind UConn in the conference standings. The team’s 13-game winning streak was its longest in 41 years.

Zuby Ejiofor had two quick baskets for the Red Storm early in the second half, but the Huskies scored the next 16 points. A driving layup by Karaban put them up by 23 with 13:42 left, and St. John’s went the last 17:27 without a field goal.

“I don’t know what it is. All I know is we didn’t play good offense,” Pitino said. “We did things that we’ve never done. And again, it’s something that I’ve got to question about myself, and I will question it because the team did not do the things we’ve done in the last 13 games.”

Braylon Mullins had six points and Karaban scored five during UConn’s 18-0 run in the first half. A driving layup by Ball gave the Huskies a 33-12 lead.

Sanon had 10 of the next 12 points for St. John’s as the Red Storm began to cut into the deficit. Reed grabbed his own miss and kicked the ball out to Ball for a 3-pointer, and the Huskies went into halftime leading 41-26.

UConn’s starters outscored the Red Storm’s starting five 61-28, and the Huskies had a 42-12 advantage in the paint.

The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.



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LPGA legend shares her feelings about US women’s Olympic wins: ‘Gets me really emotional’

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LPGA legend shares her feelings about US women’s Olympic wins: ‘Gets me really emotional’


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The United States came away with 33 total medals at the 2026 Milan Cortina Games, and many came from the female athletes who showed out in Italy this month. 

There were 17 medals won by the U.S. female athletes, including eight of the 12 gold medals.

As many Americans enjoyed watching the events at home, LPGA Tour legend Michelle Wie West was in Milan watching the U.S. reach the podium in several events. 

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Michelle Wie attends Netflix’s “Happy Gilmore 2” New York Premiere at Jazz at Lincoln Center on July 21, 2025, in New York City.  (Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images)

“I had the honor to be in Milan with Nike and got to see some Winter Olympic Games for the first time in person. It’s amazing to see all these competitors,” she told Fox News Digital in a recent interview. “Got to see [silver medalist] Chloe [Kim] do her halfpipe, and that was incredible. 

“Women’s hockey, I mean, incredible. I got to go to the first game, and it was just lights out.”

From Mia Manganello in speed skating, to Alysa Liu’s captivating gold medal in figure skating, Wie West admitted the Olympics made her a bit emotional seeing the athletes achieve their dreams.

“This whole Winter Olympics season has been so — I think every Olympic season is so uplifting,” she said. “But this one in particular was so inspiring, and it feels like the female athletes really knocked it out of the park.

“I feel like every Olympics gets me really emotional. I can see athletes achieve their dreams, and it’s so cool. It was really cool to see it in person.”

Alysa Liu holds American flag after medal skate

Gold medalist Alysa Liu of Team United States poses for a photo during the medal ceremony for the Women’s Single Skating on day thirteen of the Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at Milano Ice Skating Arena on Feb. 19, 2026 in Milan, Italy.  (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Wie West also added that Lindsey Vonn’s “heartbreaking” crash, after competing through a torn ACL, was hard to see. However, “seeing her journey up until that moment and even afterwards has been so inspiring to me.”

Breanna Stewart, a three-time gold medalist with Team USA women’s basketball, shared Wie West’s sentiments about seeing American success overseas. 

“I think there were so many events I really learned a lot about, whether it was bobsledding, or curling, or watching hockey,” she said. “Just wanting to cheer on the USA in whatever event they were doing, and see the pride and passion the athletes were having whenever they stepped up to compete with their sport.”

Michelle Wie West swings

LPGA player Michelle Wie West plays her shot from the 14th tee during the Golden Bear Pro-Am prior to the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday 2025 at Muirfield Village Golf Club on May 28, 2025, in Dublin, Ohio. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

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Stewart even mentioned getting “goosebumps” thinking about what it feels like getting a medal around your neck, and better yet, seeing the flag raise with the national anthem playing. 

“It’s really just satisfaction and justification of why you’re doing it and why you’ve gone through those hard moments and times,” she explained. “To me, the Olympics is the highest of the high. You’re playing your sport at the highest level against everyone else in the world, and you see that. It’s just a goosebump feeling no matter how many times you do it. Just the pride and knowing you’re representing something bigger than yourself always comes through full circle.”

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Olympic gold medalist Breanna Stewart reflects on 'pride and passion' shown by Team USA in Milan





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