Business
Market Outlook: Fed Rate Decision, Trade Talks, FII Flows Likely To Drive Sensex, Nifty Next Week
New Delhi: The coming week is expected to be crucial for Indian stock markets as investors look ahead to key global and domestic developments. The US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, progress on India’s trade deals with the US and the EU, and the trend of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will likely set the tone for market movements.
Market experts believe that the US Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting. A deeper cut of 50 basis points, however, would be a surprise and could boost sentiment in global markets, including India. (Also Read: Mcap Of 8 Most Valued Firms Jumps By Rs 1.69 Lakh Crore Amid Market Rally)
Updates on India’s trade negotiations will also be closely tracked. Last week, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that discussions on an India-US trade deal are ongoing and that the first phase could be finalised by November.
He also noted that talks on the India-EU trade deal are at an advanced stage. FII activity will be another key driver for the markets. Out of the last five trading sessions, FIIs were net buyers in two, with inflows worth Rs 129.58 crore on Friday alone. This indicates that the FII trend is slowly turning positive.
The previous week was strong for Indian equities. The Nifty gained 373 points, or 1.51 per cent, to close at 25,114, while the Sensex climbed 1,193.94 points, or 1.48 per cent, to end at 81,904.70. Looking ahead, experts maintain a positive stance on equities. They suggest focusing on domestic cyclicals such as autos, metals, and consumer discretionary, while keeping a balance with defensives like select FMCG and pharma stocks. (Also Read: ITR Filing 2025: Has ITR Filing Deadline Extended? Here’s The Update)
On the technical front, analysts at Religare Broking said the Nifty has tested its previous swing high near 25,150. “While some consolidation cannot be ruled out, the outlook remains positive with the next upside target seen in the 25,250–25,500 range,” Ajit Mishra said.
“On the downside, immediate support lies at 24,800, with the 100-DEMA around 24,650 acting as a stronger cushion,” Mishra added. For Bank Nifty, the index is hovering near resistance at 55,000, where the 100-DEMA aligns with price hurdles.
“A breakout above this level could trigger short covering and open the way for 56,200, while support exists in the 54,000–54,400 zone and major support at the 200-DEMA near 53,600,” Mishra mentioned.
The annual tradition of “Dry January” turned into “Damp Monday” at one supermarket, with shoppers returning to alcohol consumption in the middle of the month.
Waitrose said that the month was “not so dry after all,” identifying January 12 as “Damp Monday” after sales of wines, beers, and spirits surged by 11 per cent compared to the week before.
The grocer noted a “significant softening” of the Dry January trend over the past five years, suggesting a more balanced “Damp January” approach is now prevalent.
While alcohol sales in January 2022 were 42 per cent lower than other months, this year saw a reduced drop of just 25 per cent.
Notably, Argentinian and Chilean wine sales experienced a considerable boost last month, rising by 25 per cent and 27 per cent respectively compared to the previous year.
Compared to this time last year, searches on Waitrose.com for “Argentinian wine”, “red wine” and “Chilean wine” were up 300%, 63% and 18% respectively.
Pierpaolo Petrassi, head of beers, wines and spirits at Waitrose, said: “Damp is the new dry, as we’re seeing customers move away from the ‘all-or-nothing’ mentality and instead look towards more mindful, ‘damp’ moderation rather than quit entirely.
“This shift sees the likes of a luxury Argentinian Cabernet sitting comfortably alongside premium non-alcoholic spirits as sophisticated sips, proving that the modern palate values flavour profiles and social connection over the buzz alone.
“No doubt the no and low trend skyrocketed in 2022 as the result of the ‘pandemic reset’ transitioning out of the final lockdowns, as well as the ‘sober curious’ movement going mainstream on social media.
“Now, 2026 is the ‘lifestyle’ year, with customers finding balance as part of a more tempered, year-round approach to drinking.”
Data reported by The Spirits Business trade publication from early this year suggested that while 58% of the UK public aimed to cut back, a significant portion – roughly 31% – had opted for a “damp January” – reducing intake rather than cutting it out entirely.
Business
Budget eases PF, ESI deduction rules for employers, allows relief for delayed deposits – The Times of India
In a move expected to bring relief to employers and reduce routine tax disallowances, the finance bill has proposed a key change to the treatment of employees’ provident fund (PF), ESI and similar contributions, allowing deductions even where there is a delay in deposit, provided the amount is deposited by the employer entity with the relevant welfare fund authorities before the due date of its Income-tax return.At present, employers can claim deduction for employees’ PF and ESI contributions only if the amounts are deposited within the strict timelines prescribed under the respective welfare laws. Even a minor delay permanently disqualifies the expense for tax purposes, a position that had been settled by the Supreme Court (SC) after years of litigationUnder the proposed amendment to Section 29 of the Income-tax Act, 2025, the definition of “due date” for claiming deduction of employees’ contributions is set to be aligned with the due date for filing the income-tax return by the employer entity.Explaining the shift, Deepak Joshi, a SC advocate said employers are currently held to a rigid standard. “The law, as interpreted by the SC, meant that if employee contributions were not deposited within the due date under the relevant welfare fund laws, no deduction was allowed — even if the payment was made before filing the income-tax return,” he said.“The proposed amendment substitutes the definition of ‘due date’ to mean the due date of filing the income-tax return. The positive impact is that even if there is a slight delay in depositing employees’ contributions, so long as the amount is deposited before the return-filing deadline, the employer will be allowed the deduction,” Joshi added. Experts view the move as part of the government’s broader effort to soften compliance rigidities and reduce avoidable litigation.
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