March is here, and you know what that means: The Madness is upon us.

What better way to get ready for the men’s NCAA tournament than warming up with a couple of weeks of conference tournament action?

Champ Week never disappoints. In 2024, we saw five bid thieves crash the Big Dance, while 51 of the 63 conference tournaments in 2023 and 2025 were won by Nos. 1 or 2 seeds. And while we can likely agree that past trends are not necessarily indicative of future results, it’s fun to analyze which conference tournaments have featured the most and least chaos in recent history.

Because the membership of many conferences has changed with realignment, the primary focus will be on results from the past five seasons, though some trends that go further back were too juicy to ignore.

Because there are many ways to characterize the volatility of a specific conference tournament, here is a sampling of the factors that were taken into consideration:

• Average seed of the champion

• Combined average seed of the finalists

• How often the top-seeded teams lose their first game

• How often a lower-seeded team makes a deep run

Now let’s break it down, starting with the conference tournaments that have been friendly to higher seeds in recent years.

Note: Conferences ordered under each category by tournament start date. Averages shown are since 2021, unless otherwise noted.

TOURNAMENTS THAT HAVE FAVORED HIGHER SEEDS

West Coast Conference

No conference tournament has been more predictable than the WCC — and that’s not just over the past five years.

The top two seeds have met in the finals in 16 of the past 17 WCC tournaments. In 13 of those 16, it has been Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s. The only other team to make the finals in that span is BYU, which is no longer a conference member. (And by the way, the top two seeds in this year’s edition are Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s once again.)

Gonzaga, in its final season in the WCC before joining the new-look Pac-12 in 2026-27, has reached the championship game a ridiculous 28 consecutive years; the Bulldogs are always a No. 1 or 2 seed.

While the top two seeds have received a bye to the semis in 18 of the past 23 WCC tourneys, other leagues also reward their best teams this way without anywhere close to the same predictability.

Missouri Valley Conference

Despite a traditional bracket setup — there are no byes to the semis in Arch Madness — the top two seeds have faced off in the title game three straight times and in four of the past five years.

Drake has won the past three MVC tournaments, but the Bulldogs have their work cut out for them as this year’s 9-seed. They would have to beat the 1-seeded Belmont in the quarterfinals, which has been a near-impossibility in the MVC: The Nos. 1 and 2 seeds have lost in the quarters only once each in the past 27 tourneys — and it happened in the same year (2020).

America East

The higher seeds playing host has its benefits here: The championship game has been 1-vs.-2 or 1-vs.-3 in 10 of the past 11 seasons — including 2020, when the matchup was set before the tournament was cut short due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The America East and Summit League have the longest current streaks of the No. 1 seed raising the trophy (four straight seasons).

Southland Conference

Since changing the format to give the top two seeds a bye to the semifinals in 2013, the Southland tournament hasn’t featured many surprises: At least one of the top two seeds has reached the championship game every year since.

The No. 1 seed has won in three straight years, and either the 1- or 2-seed has raised the trophy 10 of the past 13 tournaments. The most notable upset during this stretch came in 2022, when No. 4 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (7-7 in Southland play) upset the top two seeds en route to the title.

Big 12

Four different programs have won the past four championships, but each have been Nos. 1 or 2 seeds, and only once in the past 10 tournaments has the runner-up been seeded fourth or worse.

Iowa State is the only school in Big 12 tournament history (since 1997) to win the title seeded lower than No. 3, and it has done it three times: twice as a No. 4 and once as a No. 5.

Ivy League

It’s important to note that only the Ivy’s top four teams qualify for the tournament, so the title game has been No. 1 vs. No. 2 in five of the past six seasons. The No. 2 seed had won five consecutive Ivy Madness titles until last year, when top-seeded Yale earned the conference’s auto-bid by beating — you guessed it — 2-seed Cornell.

Want more predictability? Yale has been a fixture, winning four of the past five tournaments and reaching the championship game six of the seven times the event has been held.

The tournament is hosted by a different league institution each year, and each of the past three times the host school qualified for the tourney, it won. This year’s host? Cornell, which will be the No. 4 seed.

TOURNAMENTS THAT HAVE FAVORED LOWER SEEDS

Sun Belt

The Sun Belt is the only conference in which the No. 1 seed has not made it to the championship game in the past five years (2019 is the last time it happened).

This is Year 2 of the most interesting bracket you’ll see during Champ Week, which takes place over seven days and was likely conceived to improve the chances of top seeds earning the automatic bid. That didn’t work last year, as the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds lost their first game. In fact, the 1-seed has lost its first game in the Sun Belt tourney an astounding four of the past five years.

This season, there was no clear top team in conference play. Troy went 12-6 to earn the No. 1 seed, but there was a remarkable six-way tie for second place at 11-7, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all if these trends continue.

An unintended consequence of the quirky Sun Belt bracket: No. 7 seed Arkansas State has to win five games to earn the automatic bid, while No. 2 seed Marshall has to win only two — despite the fact that both teams had the same record in Sun Belt play.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Not to be outdone by the ACC, the MAAC has been a free-for-all. At least one team seeded fourth or worse has reached the title game in eight straight tournaments. Last year, a 6-seed (Mount St. Mary’s) grabbed the auto-bid; in 2023, 11-seed Marist won three games to reach the finals; and in 2021, we had a rare 9-vs.-7 matchup in the championship game (Iona over Fairfield).

Of the 10 finalists from the past five years, eight different seeds have been represented. The No. 1 seed has struggled mightily, losing twice in the quarterfinals (2021 and 2022) and twice in the semifinals (2024 and 2025). It has been 10 years since the last title game between the top two seeds.

Coastal Athletic Association

It might seem like the CAA tournament has been chalky, with Nos. 1 and 2 seeds representing the past three champs, but the bigger picture is more complicated.

From 2012 to 2019, every team that reached the finals was seeded third or better. There were very few surprises and, more often than not, it was a 1-vs.-2 matchup for the title. Over the past five years, though, there has been plenty of variability: Only once has a No. 1 seed advanced to the championship, and at least one team seeded fourth or worse has made it. There was a 6-vs.-8 championship in 2021, No. 7 Stony Brook lost to top-seeded Charleston in overtime in 2024, and No. 12 Delaware won four games before falling just short of the title in 2025.

ACC

The ACC tournament has featured interesting results in recent years. You likely remember 10-seed NC State winning five games in five days to steal a bid in 2024. And the three years before that, teams seeded fourth (Duke), seventh (Virginia Tech) and fourth (Georgia Tech) emerged as surprise champions.

When you see lower-seeded champs like this, you might expect it’s because they faced another Cinderella type, but that has not been the case. In fact, the runner-up has been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in five straight years. Last year was an outlier, as the top two seeds met in the title game for only the second time since 2012, with Duke defeating Louisville.

TOURNAMENTS WITH MIXED RESULTS

Patriot League

It’s a different structure in the Patriot League — the higher seed hosts each game throughout — but there are similarities to the SoCon for the eventual champs and runners-up.

The past five Patriot champions have been 1- or 2-seeds. Meanwhile, four of the past five losers in the title game were seeded fifth, sixth, sixth and ninth. Last year, 5-seed Navy knocked off 1-seed Bucknell in the semifinals. This year, the shoe is on the other foot: Navy will have the bull’s-eye as the No. 1 seed trying to earn its first NCAA tournament bid since 1998 after a dominant regular season (17-1).

Southern Conference

No conference screams “mixed results” like the SoCon.

When 6-seed Wofford won the 2025 championship game, it snapped a streak of seven straight years in which the No. 1 seed won the title (including 2020). Wofford was the sixth different program to win the tournament in as many years.

The SoCon tourney rarely lacks drama, as the average seed of the runner-up (5.6) is tied for the second highest in the past five years. Where things have gone sideways is in the 2-vs.-7 and 3-vs.-6 quarterfinal matchups:

• The No. 7 seed has beaten the No. 2 seed in each of the past three years, and five of the past six.

• No. 7 seeds have reached the championship game an incredible four times in those six years.

• The No. 6 seed has beaten the No. 3 seed in four of the past six years.

MORE TRENDS

• Atlantic 10 Conference (A-10): The past six titles have been won by the No. 1 or No. 6 seed (three each). Eight of the past 11 championships have been won by a team seeded third or worse. And No. 2 seeds have reached the title game in seven of the past 11 years but have no championships to show for it.

• The No. 1 or No. 2 seed has won 13 of the past 14 Big Sky tournaments, but last year was the first time they both reached the final since 2016.

• The Big Ten has gone 17 straight tournaments without a 1-vs.-2 matchup in the title game (the last was in 2007). The next-longest drought is eight straight (MAAC).

• We have had four different Big West tournament champions in as many years. The last time a team seeded fifth or worse made it to the title game was 2015.

• Conference USA (C-USA) and the Northeast Conference (NEC) have had a different school win their tournaments eight straight times, tying for the second-longest streak in the past 100 seasons of college basketball. Only the Southern Conference (nine straight from 1927 to 1935) had a longer run. There is no doubt that changes in conference membership have played a role for both.

• Also in the NEC: A No. 3 seed (Saint Francis) won the tournament in what was the first time a 3-seed reached the title game since 2013. Last year also marked the first time the No. 2 seed didn’t lose in the championship game since 2019, snapping a streak of five straight years (including 2020, when the conference completed its tournament).

• Ohio Valley Conference (OVC): The top two seeds get byes to the semifinals, but exactly one of them has lost its first game in three of the past four years — this year’s top two seeds are Tennessee State and Morehead State. The No. 1 seed has just one championship in the past five years.

• The No. 1 seed in the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) has won the title only once in the past five years and has lost its first game in two of the past three years.

NFL free agency begins March 9 with the legal negotiating window, but the action has already started. The Jets and Titans made the first big move of the offseason last week, with New York sending edge rusher Jermaine Johnson to Tennessee for defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat. The Texans and Browns followed Monday, with Houston sending offensive tackle Tytus Howard to the Browns for a fifth-round pick. And the Lions made a surprising move later on Monday, trading running David Montgomery to the Texans for guard Juice Scruggs and two draft picks.

ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading the biggest signings and trades of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players. To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age, and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, this season or in the future?

Follow along as Walder evaluates and grades each move, with the most recent grades at the top. Let’s start with the Montgomery deal.

More coverage:
Top 50 free agents | Best free agent fits

Jump to a notable deal:
Montgomery-Scruggs | Howard
Johnson-Sweat

Texans get: RB David Montgomery
Lions get: G Juice Scruggs, 2026 fourth-round draft pick, 2027 seventh-round pick

Texans grade: D
Lions grade: A

At some point this offseason, the Texans needed to add a running back to team up with second-year man Woody Marks. They opted to do that early by acquiring Montgomery. Houston’s running game was abysmal in 2025, ranking 31st in EPA per designed carry. Their running back play wasn’t ideal, but the biggest culprit of that poor performance was an offensive line that ranked 32nd in run block win rate. Though Marks averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, he still recorded 31 rush yards over expected, another sign that the offensive line was the problem.

In Montgomery, the Texans acquire a reliable veteran who recorded 125 rush yards over expected with Detroit in 2025, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But his role has steadily decreased in recent years with the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs. In the 14 games Montgomery played in 2023, he was featured on 48% of snaps and carried the ball 219 games. By 2025, those numbers dropped to 37% and 158, respectively, despite playing in 17 games. Montgomery’s receiving work was also limited because of Gibbs — as his 24 receptions last season where nowhere close to the 54 he once caught with the Bears in 2020.

Montgomery’s contract is reasonable: He’ll cost Houston $6 million in cash this year (and $9 million non-guaranteed next year) if left untouched. But that does not mean this was a smart acquisition. An aging (29 years old in June), early-down back whose prior team had been phasing out is not worth spending real resources on. It surprises me that Detroit was able to lure a four-seven swap here since they could have found comparable expected production for far less.

Scruggs is a reclamation project throw-in for Detroit. The 2023 second-round pick has bounced around the interior of Houston’s offensive line. At guard, he has been in the 24th and 26th percentiles in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively. The results at center in 2024 were even worse, as he was third percentile in both metrics. Scruggs has one year left on his rookie deal, but the draft picks should be more than enough here for the Lions. They can use that capital to find another running back to complement Gibbs late in the draft or find a low-cost veteran in free agency. It’s as easy a win as the Lions will find all offseason.

Browns get: OT Tytus Howard
Texans get: 2026 fifth-round pick

Browns grade: D+
Texans grade: A-

One starting offensive lineman down, four more to go for the Browns. In acquiring Howard, an offensive tackle who has occasionally kicked inside to guard in his seven NFL seasons, Cleveland starts the massive rebuild of its offensive line. But was it worth it? I have a hard time seeing how.

With six offensive line free agents, the Browns are going to look significantly different in the trenches in 2026, and they’re right to jump on this right away. There’s a good chance the Browns will have a young, developing player at quarterback — be it Shedeur Sanders or someone else — and it’s critical to keep that player upright.

Howard’s exact role is unknown due to his flexibility and how the Browns’ address their other holes upfront, but right tackle seems like the safest bet since it’s where he has most frequently played.

Howard ranked in the 24th percentile in pass block win rate at tackle and the 31st percentile in run block win rate at tackle last season. He was also below average in both in 2024. That hasn’t always been the case — Howard ranked in the top 10 overall in pass block win rate at tackle in 2021 and 2022. But we’re several seasons removed from that, and he scored poorly in run blocking in each of those seasons.

So the Browns are likely getting a below-average starter. And he isn’t cheap. Howard was slated to make $17.5 million in 2026 (the final year of his deal) but is now signing a three-year, $63 million extension. While the details of that extension will matter quite a bit, Howard will be receiving hefty compensation from Cleveland.

The Browns sat at less than $1 million under the 2026 cap prior to this deal, per OverTheCap.com, though their cap obligations lighten quite a bit in 2027. But is this where they want to spend their resources, dealing a fifth-round pick to pay what might be an over-market deal for a below-average starter? That’s not how I’d want to kick off the offseason.

This continues a recent pattern of offensive line turnover for the Texans, but I don’t mind this move for them. Houston needs better blocking, both to protect quarterback C.J. Stroud and generate a running game to support him. It was last in the NFL (32nd) in run block win rate, 30th in pass block win rate and 26th in yards gained before contact on running back rushes last season.

Howard played both right tackle and left guard for the Texans, who have plenty of open spots along the offensive line, with both Ed Ingram and Trent Brown set to be free agents. They’ll need to add offensive line help at some point and must set aside money to pay edge rusher Will Anderson Jr — and probably Stroud, too. So getting a fifth-round pick to not pay Howard seems like good business.

Jets get: DT T’Vondre Sweat
Titans get: Edge Jermaine Johnson

Jets grade: A-
Titans grade: C-

For all their faults, the Jets came out of last year’s trade deadline with two of the very best deals in that period. While hardly on the same scale, they kicked off the 2026 trade season with another shrewd move in swapping out Johnson for Sweat in a one-for-one swap.

The last of the Jets’ three 2022 first-round picks, Johnson put together one decent sack season in 2023, with 7.5 sacks en route to a Pro Bowl nod. That came while playing for current Titans head coach Robert Saleh, which I assume is a critical factor in why this deal was made.

But Johnson managed only 5.5 sacks over his other three seasons in New York, though he played just three games in 2024 due to an Achilles injury. Advanced pass-rushing metrics have not been kind to Johnson in his four-year career. His career pass rush win rate is only 8.4% (8.9% last season), while the average for a starting edge in that span is 15.6%.

Sweat, a 2024 second-round pick, has been a solid starting nose tackle for Tennessee. He should help the Jets’ run defense and provide some pass rush from the nose. While his 6.5% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle is below average for the position, it’s not bad considering where he lines up. He’ll join a Jets interior group that includes Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs.

As for Johnson, the Titans need help at edge. But that need doesn’t make it worth the cost.

Johnson is playing on his fifth-year option and will cost Tennessee $13.4 million, per OverTheCap. By contrast, Sweat has two years left on his rookie deal and will cost the Jets just $1.6 and $2.1 million in each of those years, respectively. Sweat is also younger and, in my view, has a better chance to be a plus contributor than Johnson. That makes this deal well worth it for New York, especially considering the Jets will get a player with another year of team control for less money.

A pitcher throwing 130 times in a game?! Four of the top six teams losing in a single day?! This college baseball season has it all, and we’re not even a month in yet.

Though some top teams did lose (UCLA, LSU, Georgia Tech and Arkansas), they all bounced back in their weekend series, and the top 10 largely remains the same this week with the addition of Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have been dominating the year so far, and with a top-10 matchup on the horizon, they’ll show us if they’re the real deal.

Coastal Carolina’s slide down the rankings continues. The Chants dropped two games last week in the Bruce Bolt College Classic and now sit at No. 16, down seven spots from last week. One of the teams Costal Carolina lost to was UTSA, which finds itself in the rankings for the first time this season at No. 25, with Ole Miss exiting to make room for the Roadrunners.

Here are the top 25 rankings as of March 2, plus our favorite plays and what we’re watching in the week to come.

Top moments

The aforementioned pitcher throwing 130 pitches in 8⅔ innings? Yeah, that would be UT Arlington’s Caylon Dygert. Sure 130 pitches is wild and even more so this early in the season, but with the opportunity to take down one of the top teams in the country, sometimes you just got to let your pitcher ride it out.

Caylon Dygart with 8.2 innings of shutout baseball on 130 pitches in Fayetteville 👀👀👀

UT Arlington SURVIVES a 9th inning scare and takes game 1 pic.twitter.com/wsC8N9zbEC

— 11Point7 College Baseball (@11point7) February 28, 2026

And let’s stay with pitchers, just because we loved this celebration that much. Let’s just have more of this all season long.

The final out!! We’ll see you tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/w8CqtOerzs

— South Carolina Baseball (@GamecockBSB) February 28, 2026

Player to watch

Will Gasparino, OF, UCLA

Obviously all eyes have been on UCLA’s Roch Cholowsky this season, the presumptive No. 1 MLB draft pick, but Gasparino has been lighting it up for the Bruins. Gasparino is actually not just UCLA’s home run leader this season with 10 hit already, but the country’s (Cholowsky isn’t far behind with seven), and he also leads the team in RBIs at 22 (tied for second nationally). He was crucial in the win over Mississippi State on Sunday with an early homer. How he and Cholowsky measure up against each other all season will be fun to watch.

The Great Gasparino!! 🎆

Will Gasparino with a HOMER to make it 2-0 for the Bruins!#NCAABaseball x 🎥 @FloCollegeBSB / @UCLABaseball pic.twitter.com/YAq2s1zyDF

— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) March 1, 2026

Game to watch

No. 4 Mississippi State at No. 10 Southern Miss
7 p.m. on Tuesday (ESPN+)

Another midweek top-10 matchup! Southern Miss has already beaten one SEC squad in the Alabama Crimson Tide — a 14-4 win in eight innings — but can the Golden Eagles hang with the top of the SEC? They do at least have a leg up in it being a home game in Hattiesburg. Mississippi State will certainly be playing with a chip on its shoulder after losing a tight extra-innings battle to No. 1 UCLA on Sunday, and what better way to prove it’s still top-five worthy than a bounce-back win on the road.

Updated top 25

Here are D1baseball.com’s latest rankings, plus information on each team’s next game.

All times Eastern.

1. UCLA Bruins

Previous rank: 1
Record: 9-2
Next game: vs. Cal State Fullerton, 8 p.m. on Tuesday

2. LSU Tigers

Previous rank: 2
Record: 11-1
Next game: vs. Northeastern, 7:30 p.m. on Monday (SEC Network+)

3. Texas Longhorns

Previous rank: 3
Record: 11-0
Next game: vs. Houston Christian, 7:30 p.m. on Tuesday (SEC Network+)

4. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Previous rank: 4
Record: 11-1
Next game: at Southern Miss, 7 p.m. on Tuesday (ESPN+)

5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Previous rank: 5
Record: 11-1
Next game: at Georgia State, 6 p.m. on Tuesday

6. Arkansas Razorbacks

Previous rank: 6
Record: 9-3
Next game: vs. Oral Roberts, 4 p.m. on Tuesday (SEC Network+)

7. Auburn Tigers

Previous rank: 7
Record: 9-2
Next game: vs. Samford, 7 p.m. on Tuesday (SEC Network+)

8. North Carolina Tar Heels

Previous rank: 8
Record: 11-1-1
Next game: vs. Elon 4 p.m. on Tuesday (ACC Network Extra)

9. Florida Gators

Previous rank: 10
Record: 11-1
Next game: vs. FAU, 6 p.m. on Tuesday (SEC Network+)

10. Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Previous rank: 12
Record: 10-1
Next game: vs. Mississippi State, 7 p.m. on Tuesday (ESPN+)

11. Georgia Bulldogs

Previous rank: 11
Record: 10-2
Next game: at Kennesaw State, 6 p.m. on Tuesday

12. Oklahoma Sooners

Previous rank: 13
Record: 10-2
Next game: vs. Dallas Baptist, 7:30 p.m. on Tuesday (SEC Network+)

13. NC State Wolfpack

Previous rank: 14
Record: 10-1
Next game: vs. Coastal Carolina, 3 p.m. on Tuesday (ACC Network Extra)

14. Clemson Tigers

Previous rank: 15
Record: 10-1
Next game: vs. Michigan State, 6 p.m. on Wednesday in Greenville, South Carolina (ACC Network Extra)

15. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Previous rank: 16
Record: 11-1
Next game: at App State, 3 p.m. on Wednesday (ESPN+)

16. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Previous rank: 9
Record: 7-4
Next game: at NC State, 3 p.m. on Tuesday (ACC Network Extra)

17. TCU Horned Frogs

Previous rank: 18
Record: 6-5
Next game: vs. Abilene Christian, 7 p.m. on Tuesday (ESPN+)

18. Oregon State Beavers

Previous rank: 19
Record: 6-4
Next game: at Oregon, 6:05 p.m. on Tuesday

19. Tennessee Volunteers

Previous rank: 20
Record: 8-3
Next game: vs. ETSU, 4 p.m. on Tuesday (SEC Network+)

20. Florida State Seminoles

Previous rank: 21
Record: 8-2
Next game: vs. Jacksonville, 6 p.m. on Tuesday (ACC Network Extra)

21. Kentucky Wildcats

Previous rank: 22
Record: 9-2
Next game: at Eastern Kentucky, 5 p.m. on Tuesday (ESPN+)

22. Texas A&M Aggies

Previous rank: 23
Record: 10-1
Next game: vs. UIW, 5 p.m. on Tuesday (SEC Network+)

23. West Virginia Mountaineers

Previous rank: 24
Record: 8-2
Next game: vs. Radford, 2 p.m. on Tuesday (ESPN+)

24. Miami Hurricanes

Previous rank: 17
Record: 10-2
Next game: at UCF, 6 p.m. on Wednesday

25. UTSA Roadrunners

Previous rank: NR
Record: 10-1
Next game: at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 7:30 p.m. on Tuesday (ESPN+)