Sports
Men’s college basketball tiers: Ranking 47 teams from contenders to Cinderellas
The start of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season feels like years ago. Before it tipped off, we ranked 80 teams based on how we expected them to end the year, including whether they would be real factors in the NCAA tournament.
Some of those projections held strong. UConn still looks like it could capture its third national title in four tries. Duke and Texas Tech have shaped into the Final Four contenders we forecasted them to be. And Nebraska has lived up to its billing as a comeback candidate, following up last season’s 7-13 Big Ten run to win its first 20 games of this campaign. The Cornhuskers have a real chance to be the men’s basketball version of Indiana football — a turnaround champion.
There were also misses. Arizona as just a second-weekend threat? The Wildcats have spent seven straight weeks atop the AP Top 25. We were also low on Vanderbilt, pinning the Commodores as a bubble team; they won their first 16 games.
There was no way to know then what we know now. But we did leverage the information we’ve gathered to this point to take another shot at ranking teams into their proper categories. This time, we’ve reduced the list to just 47.
ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf try to make some sense of what has unfolded thus far.
Jump to:
Title favorites | Final Four contenders
Sweet 16 threats | Final Four or first-round exit?
Can win a game | Cinderellas

Tier I: National championship favorites
Arizona Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines
UConn Huskies
Each of these teams cracked this tier at different points during the nonconference stretch of the season.
For Arizona, it was its road win at UConn in mid-November — after already notching wins away from home over Florida and UCLA (Auburn and Alabama would soon join that group). For Michigan, it was the historically impressive performances at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas during Feast Week, particularly the 40-point win over Gonzaga in the event’s championship game. UConn’s came later, but a string of wins over BYU, Illinois, Kansas and Florida — none at home — combined with a return to full health clearly put the Huskies in the top tier nationally.
Arizona currently sits at 21-0 after beating BYU in Provo on Monday, leading by as many as 19 points and looking utterly dominant for most of the game. Tommy Lloyd has a clear national championship favorite, with an ideal balance of youth and experience, guards and bigs and the best defense he has had since taking over in Tucson — by far. The Wildcats can beat teams in different ways, with Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries anchoring the perimeter, and Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka controlling the paint. Ivan Kharchenkov‘s emergence as one of the elite defenders in the Big 12 takes the Wildcats to another level at that end of the floor, too.
Michigan, meanwhile, suffered its first loss of the season in early January after opening the season with 14 straight wins, many of them by 30-plus points. Dusty May has leaned heavily on size, starting three players 6-foot-9 or taller, but the Wolverines are still able to defend as well — and get up and down the floor as fast — as any team in the country. Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara form an elite frontcourt, while Elliot Cadeau has made strides as a shooter and decision-maker.
UConn’s efficiency numbers aren’t quite up to par with the other two teams in this tier, but the Huskies have found a way to win close games throughout Big East play, and they’re already battle-tested from a brutal nonconference schedule. Dan Hurley’s crew took some time to get fully healthy, but now that it is, he has a team much more in line with his two title-winning groups of 2023 and 2024. There’s depth, size, point guard play and plenty of shotmakers on the perimeter with the likes of Alex Karaban, Solo Ball, Braylon Mullins and Silas Demary Jr. — Borzello

Tier II: Final Four contenders
Duke Blue Devils
Houston Cougars
Purdue Boilermakers
Iowa State Cyclones
Gonzaga Bulldogs
BYU Cougars
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The NCAA tournament is often defined by the performances of players who step up in high-stakes moments, which means success in March depends on talent capable of shifting into a higher gear. The teams in this tier certainly are not without their flaws, but they could close the gap between them and the national championship favorites if their respective stars reach their ceilings in the weeks ahead.
Cameron Boozer is, at least statistically speaking, having a season that rivals those of the greatest Duke players over the past 25 years. His offensive rating is currently higher than the offensive ratings JJ Redick, Zion Williamson and Cooper Flagg had during their National Player of the Year campaigns. Boozer is a household name, in part because his father Carlos Boozer helped Duke to a national title in 2001, but the rest of these teams are here without any of their own thanks to breakout performances by emerging stars.
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Cameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of Louisville
Cameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of Louisville
After recording a career-high 32 points in a narrow but critical win over Illinois in December, Nebraska’s Pryce Sandfort gave the Cornhuskers a chance at another important victory at Michigan on Tuesday despite being down two starters to injury and ultimately falling 75-72. Illinois’ Keaton Wagler has had similar head-turning performances, having led the Fighting Illini to a road win over Purdue with a program-record 46 points for a freshman, while standout Kylan Boswell was sidelined this past Saturday.
At Houston, Kingston Flemings has emerged as a projected top-five NBA draft pick and had a career-high 42 points in the loss to Texas Tech this past Saturday. He is notably the first freshman whom coach Kelvin Sampson has trusted to act as a catalyst for the Cougars. At Purdue, Braden Smith leads the nation in assists (9.0 per game) as the spark that has kept us believers amid a Boilermakers slump. And at Iowa State, Tamin Lipsey has found Joshua Jefferson — a legit contender for national Player of the Year — for a flurry of buckets as the Cyclones joust for the Big 12 title.
If Graham Ike (ankle) is healthy soon and Braden Huff (knee) returns to form in time for the NCAA tournament, a Gonzaga team that could have one of the best defenses of the Mark Few era will have a chance to enjoy postseason success. And finally, Texas Tech stars JT Toppin and Christian Anderson — who combined for 43 points, 16 rebounds and 12 assists in this past Saturday’s win over Houston — could be a winning combination for the Red Raiders again in March. — Medcalf
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Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights
Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights

Tier III: Second-weekend threats
Michigan State Spartans
Florida Gators
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas Jayhawks
Vanderbilt Commodores
Virginia Cavaliers
Alabama Crimson Tide
This tier is full of teams that have notable strengths but glaring weaknesses that could prevent them from advancing beyond the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight despite being capable of reaching those second-weekend rounds.
We know what Kansas is capable of when Darryn Peterson (21.6 points per game) is available. The Jayhawks are a top-15 defensive team with the luxury of a high-level star, but Peterson’s injury concerns could be an issue if they linger into March (he’s missed 10 of their 20 games so far).
On paper, BYU has arguably all the talent a head coach could want. AJ Dybantsa is in the running for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft. Richie Saunders is one of the top shooters in the country. And Rob Wright III is averaging 5.2 assists for a top-10 offense. Yet, the Cougars are also 13th in turnover rate in the Big 12, surrendering the ball on 17% of their possessions.
Tom Izzo loves this Michigan State roster and Jeremy Fears Jr. (8.9 assists per game) is the right leader for a team that’s playing some of the best defense in America. The Spartans have also committed turnovers on one-fifth of their possessions in Big Ten play.
Florida has gotten its act together over the past six weeks in a reversal that has rebooted talk of a back-to-back national championship run for the Gators. But their lineups that include Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee together are rated 126th in overall efficiency among the two-player lineups in the SEC, per EvanMiya.
Darius Acuff Jr. is a projected NBA draft lottery pick who leads Arkansas and the best offense in the SEC. John Calipari’s problem? Opposing conference opponents have made 57% of their shots inside the arc against the Razorbacks, who rank 15th out of 16 SEC teams in that metric at KenPom.
Vanderbilt had drawn comparisons to Indiana football as an underdog that won at an unexpected rate, and with Tyler Tanner — who wasn’t ranked as a high school recruit by ESPN — evolving into a potential first-round NBA draft pick. But the Commodores, with the worst SEC defense inside the arc, might not have the defensive chops to advance past the Sweet 16 despite having the talent to get there. You could say the same for first-year coach Ryan Odom Virginia or Labaron Philon Jr. (22.2 PPG) and Alabama’s high-powered offense. — Medcalf

Tier IV: Final Four or first-round exit?
St. John’s Red Storm
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
North Carolina Tar Heels
Tennessee Volunteers
We haven’t quite figured out this group yet, despite being nearly three months into the season. They could lose on the first day of the NCAA tournament, or they could be among the four teams left standing in Indianapolis. Nothing would surprise us.
St. John’s had a rocky first two months, with inconsistent guard play and an atypical Rick Pitino defense. But with six wins in a row entering the week and better role allocation in recent weeks, we’re not counting out this preseason top-five team.
Kentucky was considered the most disappointing team in the country when it was 5-4, and again when it was 9-6; then the Wildcats rattled off five wins in a row prior to Tuesday’s 25-point road loss to Vanderbilt. Injuries have really hindered Mark Pope’s team, but what if Kam Williams and Jayden Quaintance come back? The Wildcats would get an offensive boost from Williams’ shooting while Quaintance would be an immediate upgrade defensively.
Louisville will hope to get things rolling again now that Mikel Brown Jr. has returned from the lower back injury that kept him out for more than a month. The Brown and Ryan Conwell backcourt is as good as it gets. Even with the star freshman available, however, the Cardinals have only one win over a surefire NCAA tournament team.
North Carolina showed its ceiling and floor over the weekend when it trailed by 16 against Virginia and couldn’t guard anyone … and then came back to win, overpowering the Cavaliers with size and shotmaking. Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar are an elite post duo, but Hubert Davis needs consistent point guard play and defense.
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Caleb Wilson throws down two-handed slam for UNC
Caleb Wilson throws down two-handed slam for UNC
Under Rick Barnes, Tennessee has typically had elite defenses and been prone to droughts offensively. Not this season’s team — although neither unit has been particularly impressive in SEC play. There’s still potential with Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament leading the way, and the Vols showed it at Alabama last weekend. And if the defense turns around to play at the level of previous Barnes-coached teams, suddenly the Vols can go toe-to-toe with most teams in the country. — Borzello

Tier V: Can win a game
Clemson Tigers
Georgia Bulldogs
SMU Mustangs
Iowa Hawkeyes
Auburn Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Saint Louis Billikens
Wisconsin Badgers
Villanova Wildcats
Utah State Aggies
Texas A&M Aggies
UCF Knights
Miami Hurricanes
UCLA Bruins
Ohio State Buckeyes
San Diego State Aztecs
This is a deep group, but all of these teams have shown flashes of being able to win a game in the NCAA tournament — even if some find themselves sweating on Selection Sunday.
Some have already shown they can beat high-level teams on a given night: Auburn won at Florida over the weekend and has wins over Arkansas and St. John’s. Wisconsin handed Michigan its lone loss thus far, in Ann Arbor. UCLA has been mostly inconsistent, especially against good teams, but beat Purdue and has won four of five entering the week. And Georgia blew out Arkansas.
Others have elite players who are good enough to carry them to a win: Iowa has Bennett Stirtz, NC State has Darrion Williams. Ohio State has plenty of talent in its starting five, and Bruce Thornton is a bona fide star. Boopie Miller puts SMU in this group as well.
For others, it’s simply a fact of us believing in their talent, coaching or general identity.
Randy Bennett’s Saint Mary’s teams are always a threat in March. Saint Louis is a legitimate top-25 squad and could find itself in position to win more than one game in the tournament. Utah State is annually destined to be in a coin-flip first-round matchup. Villanova, Texas A&M and Miami are all better than expected in Year 1 under new head coaches. UCF owns a win over Kansas and isn’t going away as a competitive Big 12 team. And San Diego State struggled early, but the Aztecs find themselves atop the Mountain West and have March pedigree. — Borzello

Tier VI: Potential Cinderellas
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Murray State Racers
McNeese Cowboys
Liberty Flames
Yale Bulldogs
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Over the past three NCAA tournaments, 10 teams outside the five high-major conferences — that were also double-digit seeds — won at least one game. The teams on this list all have the potential to join them, beginning with Miami (OH), a team that has won its first 21 games of the season. The RedHawks have made 39% of their 3-point attempts and 62% of their shots inside the arc, both top-20 marks nationally.
Under first-year head coach Bill Armstrong, McNeese has forced turnovers on 25% of its opponents’ turnovers, exceeding the tally of last season’s Cowboys team that reached the second round under Will Wade.
Murray State guard Javon Jackson (17.0 PPG) is one of the best mid-major players in America. UNC-Wilmington has seven players averaging at least nine points per game, depth that could make the team dangerous in March. Liberty is shooting 52% from the field, No. 2 in the country. And Yale has made 41% of its 3-point attempts, also second in the nation.
If your favorite team has to go through one of these squads in March, they might go home earlier than anticipated. — Medcalf
Sports
What it’s like to be Olivier Rioux — the tallest college basketball player ever
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — At an on-campus dining hall in September, a fork and knife looked like a toddler’s toy utensils in the massive hands of Olivier Rioux. Everything about Florida‘s 7-foot-9, 305-pound center, is supersized — just check the book of Guinness World Records, where he holds the official title for tallest teenager.
“I wear size 20 shoes,” Rioux told ESPN. “I eat 5,000 to 6,000 calories every day.”
It’s fuel for a body with proportions college basketball has never seen.
When he made his much-anticipated debut for the Gators in early November, Rioux (pronounced Ree-YOO) became the tallest player in college basketball history to check into a game. Two weeks after that, he became the tallest player to score a point after making a free throw. And in mid-December, he became the tallest player to record a field goal with a late-game dunk in a blowout win over Saint Francis.
Before he even entered that game — his third of five appearances so far this season — the crowd in Gainesville began to chant, “We want Ollie! We want Ollie!” The loudest cheers of the night erupted when he rose from his seat on the bench and walked to the scorer’s table to check in. Minutes later, that slam sent the fans into a frenzy. His teammates hopped on one another’s shoulders, his coaches high-fived and fans pointed to the ceiling and screamed.
“I knew it would be big, but I didn’t know it would be like that,” said Jean-Francois Rioux, Oliver’s father.
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7-foot-9 Olivier Rioux scores first bucket
Olivier Rioux, the world’s tallest teenager, scores his first bucket for Florida vs. Saint Francis.
Oliver has created a buzz on and off the court since he was a young player in Montreal. As a child, he towered over his peers, then his teachers and, well, eventually most of the globe. He was nearly 7 feet tall in elementary school. With his unique size and stature, he’s a walking selfie opportunity for passersby.
The redshirt freshman’s main focus is to eventually earn more playing time and enjoy the typical life of a college student. Florida considers him a promising project, though at this stage, he’s a long way from filling up the stat sheet in the SEC. Still, he’s the most popular player on the roster, as evidenced by the incessant requests for photos and autographs when he’s out with the team. But while Rioux sometimes basks in the fame and attention of a rock star, he yearns to be acknowledged for his other attributes.
“Whenever I’m out with the guys or the team, I’m like, ‘I don’t want any pictures,'” he said. “When I’m walking to class, I’ll do selfies while I’m walking. I’ve learned that technique. It works a lot because you don’t get stopped by anybody. And then anything that involves kids asking for pictures, I’ll do it because I don’t want to feel bad.”
Long before he caused a stir everywhere he went, Rioux was just a tall kid in Canada.
As a child, he was just the growing young man who would walk into a local restaurant with his 6-8 father, 6-2 mother Anne Gariepy (6-2) and 6-9 older brother, Emile, to order a half-dozen pizzas for the family.
That started to change in 2016.
Joel Anthony, a 6-10 former NBA forward who won two NBA titles with LeBron James and the Miami Heat, returned to Montreal to attend a kids basketball camp in town. Having faced some of the biggest athletes in the world, he wasn’t easily impressed. Then, a friend of his introduced him to a 9-year-old Rioux.
“I was like, ‘Where is the kid?'” Anthony said. “And he’s like, ‘This is the kid I was talking about.'”
Anthony had assumed Rioux was a camp counselor. They were the same height.
2 years ago #Olivierrioux with Joel Anthony ! Times fly ! pic.twitter.com/zmWV1tS4HE
— Jean-Francois Rioux (@TWJFRIOUX) September 12, 2018
When a photo of Rioux and Anthony was posted on social media, it drew attention — including from Canada Basketball officials, who contacted Rioux’s family. Joining his country’s official basketball development system helped him gain the training resources to facilitate his growth. Free clothes and shoes, too. And the games against top opposition on the grassroots circuit taught him to play with an edge.
“A 6-foot-10 kid tried to dunk on him and he missed, and he was chirping at Rioux,” said Joey McKitterick, director of Brookwood Elite basketball program in Canada. “And then Rioux comes down and dunks on him, and then he pats the kid on the top of his head. And I was like, ‘He just patted a kid who is 6-foot-10 on his head like he was his child.'”
As the legendary stories about the tallest kid anyone had ever seen — he was 7 feet tall by age 12 — circulated throughout Canada and beyond, Rioux’s coaches had to call event organizers at youth basketball events to verify his age when they threatened to demand his birth certificate. The crowds at his games quickly grew. People wanted to see the boy who seemed like a myth. That attention wasn’t always easy to handle for Rioux, according to those who were around him then.
“It is a little difficult when you’re young and people don’t know how to stare,” Anthony said. “You have this growth spurt and now everyone’s just staring at you and it’s just constantly, everyone is staring at you.”
Rioux’s AAU coaches had to turn his teammates into “bodyguards” on road trips to keep those seeking autographs and pictures at bay. They would still snap selfies from afar and post them. A simple stroll through a mall, an airport or any place with throngs of people would present the possibility of hysteria for Rioux.
But in basketball, Rioux found a home and an identity. At Florida, he’s just one of the guys, another player on a roster chasing a dream.
“The fans at Florida are crazy,” he said. “The feeling of being supported by people, it just helps you a lot mentally and I feel like that’s what I needed and that’s what I’ve been provided with.”
Whenever he gets to his hotel room on the road with the Gators, Rioux goes through his routine.
First, he backs his body into the room like a semi-truck backs into a loading dock because it’s more efficient than trying to dip beneath a standard door frame (6-8) while facing forward. Then if the room has two beds — preferably doubles or queens — he’ll pull one toward the other to make a T-shape, then sleep diagonally.
When a room has only one bed, well, then he really has to get creative.
“I just have a technique where I just pull the mattress back, put some pillows and cushions near the top of the bedframe so that the bed is long enough,” he said. “I don’t need the extra space in the room.”
Just preparing his body for the wear and tear of a basketball season is a feat in and of itself. His training program involves a lot of work on his lower body to create and sustain the base he’ll need to play long stretches if he’s called upon.
“I can lose five pounds in a single day,” Rioux said of his daily workout regimen. “I have to regain it with water and it’s you can’t just hold water. You’ve got to drink progressively and be worried about when you drink, how you drink and when you pee and all of that. There is a whole process.”
At 7-9, the human body works harder. Much harder. But the energy Rioux expends at Florida to stay in shape — he added 10 pounds of muscle over the offseason — is not only in service of his basketball future, but his overall quality of life.
For now, Rioux hasn’t had much of an opportunity to showcase the work he has done to prepare his body for play.
Florida’s pecking order is set with a frontcourt of Alex Condon, NBA prospect Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu — all of whom starred in last season’s national title run. Rioux’s efforts now are really about fighting for a role next season. His height is an X factor no opponents can match at this level. But he’ll have to become quicker and more agile to play substantial minutes, according to those who have helped him develop over the years.
“It’s a guard’s game, so in order for a big guy like [Rioux] to really, really thrive, you’d have to slow the game down, walk the ball up the court, let him get in position and then throw it into him,” said Michael Meeks, an assistant with the Canadian national team who has known Rioux for more than a decade. “There are not a lot of teams that walk the ball up in the SEC, so his head is under the water and he’s going to have to really, really work to get it above it to impact the game.”
Florida head coach Todd Golden said he won’t make any definitive projections about Rioux’s future at Florida, but he is impressed by his determination and work ethic.
“I know he’s sitting over there probably like, ‘Damn man, I didn’t know all these guys were coming back,'” Golden said. “So it’s going to be a tough one this year to play. It really will be. But … I do think he has some really good basketball ahead of him, whether it’s here at Florida or somewhere else.”
That’s a challenge Rioux has embraced because he wants to play. That’s his ultimate goal; it’s how he wants to be remembered with the Gators and the world. Whether an opportunity to make that a reality comes will depend on what happens this offseason. Although Rioux has played limited minutes this season (2.2 per game), Florida could lose its entire frontcourt to the NBA or graduation. That could open a lane for him — and he’s determined to stay until it does.
“I think a lot of people don’t really know what I’m committed to doing,” he said. “Obviously, you see a highlight here and there, but you don’t see what the person is capable of doing. I want to push myself to be able to do that.”
Added his father: “We are confident that [Rioux] will have his place at Florida and that he will be able to play.”
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Gators fans go wild for tallest player in CBB history checking into game
Florida fans are on their feet as 7-9 Olivier Rioux checks into the game against North Florida.
Rather than stuff himself into a car, Rioux prefers to ride around Florida’s campus on a bike. But it’s not an ordinary bike. The DirtySixer AllRoad Mark II retails at $5,000. When standing upright on its back wheel, the bike is almost as tall as Rioux. San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama is next on the company’s list to get one of the limited edition bikes. Shaquille O’Neal already has one.
“I haven’t figured out my driver’s license,” Rioux said. “I don’t fit into cars. I don’t fit into the driver’s seat. I would have to customize it and learn how to drive it. And that’s a lot. That’s a lot of money.”
Blending into a world made for the masses — the average Canadian man is 5-10 — but not a 7-9 man has always been the norm for Rioux. He has to “duckwalk” through the jet bridge at the airport and can sit only in exit rows unless he purchases extra seats for the legroom. And with his in-person classes in Gainesville, it’s rare that he ever finds a suitable seat.
“The auditoriums are not made for tall people, so I have to sit in the back where there is a seat,” he said. “You don’t really hear the teacher.”
The Florida athletic complex is one of the few places where he can relax without thinking about the next person to come up to him and ask him about his height or if he plays basketball or how tall he is. In the locker room, Rioux can be himself.
“He’s a great kid,” his teammate Boogie Fland said. “He’s just a cool dude to be around and he is always caring about us.”
Added Haugh: “People love him here. He loves it here, too. And he’s been grinding. He has been lifting a lot and getting better. I see him working out, working on ballhandling. And I think if he gets things rolling, gets a little quicker, he’s going to be good.”
Florida is where Rioux is attempting to mold himself into the player he wants to be — one with a future that will depend on how rapidly his skills develop and the way he conditions himself for the rigors of a season. In the meantime, the NIL and revenue sharing have helped him attain the 3XL gear — and the king-plus mattress — he needs. It also helps that clothing companies send him their stuff for free, hoping he can become their human billboard.
When he wants to turn it all off, though — the buzz, the selfie requests, the gawking, the questions — he connects with those who know him as “Ollie.”
Back home in Montreal, he challenges his dad to PC games, mostly “Civilization” and “Minecraft.” He enjoys reading manga and watching anime. He’s even an artist himself; his sketches are scattered around his family home.
When he wasn’t doodling as a kid, he was always close to a chessboard.
“He’s very good at chess,” his father said. “When he was young, he won the tournament at his school, but at some point, if you want to really be good at chess, you have to train, but basketball was taking too much of his time to do chess.”
He has a friend group that doesn’t care that he plays basketball or has a record-setting height. On a summer trip to New York City, they socialized at a food festival before they stopped at a club.
“We went downtown, we chilled. One of our friends is a DJ, so we went to support him,” Rioux said. “It was really nice. He was doing EDM. I am into that.”
He chooses to keep the names of those friends and their busy group chat private. For Rioux, cultivating a life outside basketball — and constant chatter about his height — has been a positive.
“It’s the freedom of not talking about basketball,” he said. “I feel like that helps me to just be more focused on basketball somehow. I don’t know the mentality behind it, but I have 100% in basketball and 100% with the liberty of recovery. I think that’s the balance.”
Sports
Elena Rybakina wins Australian Open for 2nd Grand Slam title
MELBOURNE, Australia — Elena Rybakina was crowned Australian Open champion after storming from behind in the deciding set of Saturday’s final to overcome top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.
After splitting the first two sets at Rod Laver Arena, Sabalenka appeared to have made a decisive move in the third set when she broke Rybakina for just the second time in the match and raced to a 3-0 lead.
But Rybakina, the world No. 5, responded by winning five consecutive games to wrestle back control. She calmly served out the match with an ace to clinch her second Grand Slam title, avenging her losses to Sabalenka in the 2023 Australian Open and 2021 Wimbledon finals.
Following championship point, the pair shared an embrace at the net. Rybakina then clapped her left hand on the strings of her racket and held her arm up triumphantly to the packed grandstands roaring in delight.
“It’s amazing to hold this trophy,” said Rybakina, who was born in Russia but represents Kazakhstan. “I knew that today if I get a chance to lead that I will need to try some risky shots and just go for it … not wait for any mistakes or even get to the long rallies.
“It was tough to come back in the third. I’m happy that being down, I was able to calm myself down, not being frustrated anymore, and just focus on each point and stay close. I’m super happy.”
Saturday’s 2-hour, 18-minute final was a tale of razor-thin margins — as evidenced by both players finishing the night having won exactly 92 points — but in the key moments it was Rybakina who stepped up.
Rybakina won 64% of points with the score locked at either 30-30 or 40-40 and 75% when facing a break point. She made 72% of her third-set service returns land in play, a contrast to Sabalenka, who managed only 59%.
Another key to victory for Rybakina was her ability to successfully combat the four-time Grand Slam champion’s combination of power and aggression with her own brand of heavy ballstriking and fearless tennis.
She signaled that intent early on, breaking the first Sabalenka service game with high-risk, high-reward tennis, despite the world No. 1 landing seven of eight first serves.
It was an approach that carried her throughout the back-and-forth contest and to the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup, which was presented by 2001 and 2002 Australian Open champion Jennifer Capriati.
“I played great until [a] certain point, and then I couldn’t resist that aggression that she had on court today,” a defeated Sabalenka said. “I don’t know if I have any regrets. Maybe I should have tried to be more aggressive on my serve, knowing that I have a break, and put pressure on her, but she played incredible. Today she was a better player.”
The Australian Open title caps a monumental return to the top for Rybakina, who will be elevated to world No. 3 when the WTA’s latest rankings land Monday.
Rybakina, 26, ended last year with semifinal appearances in both the Toronto and Cincinnati WTA 1000 events before being crowned champion at the season-ending WTA Finals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Since Wimbledon last year, Rybakina has achieved a tour-best 37-6 record, while her latest triumph over Sabalenka extends her consecutive win streak over top-10 opponents to a career-best 10 matches.
“I always believed that I [could] come back to the level I was,” Rybakina said. “Of course, we all have ups and downs. I think everyone thought maybe I will never be again in the final or even get a trophy, but it’s all about the work.
“When you get some wins, big wins against top players, then you start to believe more. You get more confident. That was the kind of way.”
The loss is the second in succession for Sabalenka in an Australian Open final. Last year, she was upset by American Madison Keys, also in three sets. Each of the two years prior, she was crowned champion at Melbourne Park.
Sabalenka had entered the 2026 final against Rybakina having won 12 consecutive matches and 22 consecutive sets to begin the year.
“It’s tennis, you know. Today you’re a loser; tomorrow you’re a winner,” Sabalenka said. “Hopefully I’ll be more of a winner this season than a loser.”
Sports
Australia’s injured Cummins out of T20 World Cup
Star paceman Pat Cummins was ruled out of Australia’s Twenty20 World Cup campaign on Saturday, while batsman Matthew Renshaw has come into the squad at the expense of Matt Short.
Test skipper Cummins only played one of the five Ashes Tests against England over the Australian summer as he slowly recovers from a lower back injury.
He was hoping to be fit for the tournament in India and Sri Lanka beginning on February 7, but has run out of time and been replaced by Ben Dwarshuis.
“With Pat needing more time to recover from his back injury, Ben is a ready replacement who offers a left-arm pace option as well as dynamic fielding and late-order hitting,” selector Tony Dodemaide said.
“We believe his ability to swing the ball at good pace, along with clever variations, will be well-suited to the conditions we expect and overall structure of the squad.”
The only other change to the provisional squad named this month sees Renshaw come in for Short, who has paid the price for his ordinary performances in the Big Bash League.
“Matt (Renshaw) has impressed in all formats of late, including in multiple roles in white ball formats for Australia, the Queensland Bulls and the Brisbane Heat,” Dodemaide said.
“With the top order settled and spin-heavy conditions expected in the pool stages in Sri Lanka, we also feel Matt provides extra middle-order support, with Tim David completing his return to play programme in the early phase of the tournament.”
Big-hitter David is on the comeback trail from a hamstring injury.
The squad is spin-heavy in preparation for the sub-continent conditions, with left-armer Matt Kuhnemann and Cooper Connolly complementing chief tweaker Adam Zampa and part-timer Glenn Maxwell.
Australia’s group-stage matches are all being played in Sri Lanka. They open their account against Ireland in Colombo on February 11.
Squad: Mitchell Marsh (capt), Xavier Bartlett, Cooper Connolly, Tim David, Ben Dwarshuis, Cameron Green, Nathan Ellis, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Glenn Maxwell, Matthew Renshaw, Marcus Stoinis, Adam Zampa.
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